A major racing Saturday is on the horizon with excellent meetings from Haydock featuring the next round of The British Champion Stakes, Goodwood & a Classic weekend at The Curragh in Ireland. There is also the small matter of a £15 million pound Scoop 6 to attack after 11 weeks of not being won, looking at the racing on offer it certainly looks to have the potential to be finally won after several near misses.
With so many races on offer I will only take a look at a handful of races over the 3 meetings in this blog, as on busy Saturday's like this the potential to over bet is incredibly high, my policy is for selective betting & enjoy the races I am not getting involved in.
Starting with Haydock the feature race is the first leg of the Sprint division of the British Champion Series; The Temple Stakes Group 2.
Honestly though its a poor renewal, as long as the ground remains on the fast side old Sole Power has to have an outstanding chance of regaining his crown that he won in 2011, he bounced right back to his best with a dominant display at Newmarket with most of these in behind. At this stage the ground is firm but the weather forecast for today & tomorrow is looking awful so he has to be a doubtful runner.
Jim Goldie throws his usual suspects back into battle, Jack Dexter was quite disappointing at York last time when fancied but with the ground expected to come in his favour he could easily bounce back. Hawkeyethenoo is a grand old horse but still hasn't made the breakthrough at Group level after countless tries.
Justineo showed up well on his first start of the season when clearly in need of the run, he showed improved from last year with a bit of cut in the ground & is unexposed as a sprinter, could easily be overpriced.
Old Kingsgate Native goes for back to back victories in this race & that would make 3 in total, he ran a storming race flying home behind Sole Power last time, any softening of the ground would be against him for win purposes though.
Mirza has steadily improved as a sprinter over the last few seasons making the breakthrough at pattern level when dead heating at Longchamp last season, his seasonal debut at the same track was promising, if the ground were to deteriorate it would really suit him.
Smoothtalkinrascal was behind Mirza in France last time, it was a disappointing run after he had shown tenacity & grit to win at Musselburgh, talented horse who needs to up his game. It was a major surprise to me that Pearl Secret ran in The Palace House when his trainer had stated after his easy conditions win at Nottingham that he would not be risked on a faster surface, it would appear owner power swayed the argument last time as a result he was well beaten, he will need the heavens to open as they are predicted too for him to take his chance tomorrow, if they do he has to be respected as he has long showed major potential for these races.
Hot Streak impressed many with his seasonal return behind Sole Power & Kingsgate Native, it was his first try against his elders. I am not so keen, the race fell apart with several of the rivals he finished in front not being good enough as they have proved in the past so he didn't have to improve to beat them while his owner mate Pearl Secret did not act on the ground.
His trainer unleashed Astaire (Hot Streak was 2nd to him in Middle Park) at sprint distances in the Duke Of York, he ran a big race only just going down to the best sprinter around Maarek but he had the run of the race that day, Hot Streak needs to step up here as it is just marginally a better field than the Palace House.
The other 3yo is Justice Day who was an excellent 2yo & returned with an ok effort at York last week, this is a huge step up in class which will find him out.
Ground dependent as to whether I do have a bet at present.
The last leg of the Scoop6 is the ultra competitive Betfred Silver Bowl which usually goes to a nice type. This year's race looks on paper much classier than recent years as the weights are higher than normal so I would look for horses carrying between 8-8 - 9-5 this time around.
I have to start with What About Carlo as I am a huge fan of this horse & he is one of my 8 to follow. He bolted up on his seasonal debut at Sandown in The Esher Cup, he is now 9lbs higher in a better race, as a strong physical specimen he should cope with the extra weight & he has the ability to travel in his races then quicken of a decent pace which he will get on Saturday, I firmly believe he is better than a handicapper.
Any ease in the ground will be ok for him as I don't think he would want rattling fast but genuine good or good to soft would be perfect for him, now he is a stronger horse I wouldn't be over worried about soft ground either, officially he won on soft at Sandown however it wasn't genuine soft ground for me as I had walked the course before racing & as it was the first race on a card that was hit by major showers it was more verging on good to soft at the time of his race.
Red Stargazer won at the track the other week beating Chatez (who re-opposes tomorrow) he gave him 4lbs that day & won quite comfortably in the end, this is a much tougher giving weight to some potentially useful rivals, soft ground seems important to him. Chatez appears to have little in hand from his current mark & makes little appeal here. Riverboat Springs was well beaten by Red Stargazer & Chatez last time, he has a big weight pull but in truth is fairly exposed in a race of this quality. Hors De Combat is a nice horse, he too won in the style of a useful performer last time at Newmarket quickening well in the dip to win cosily, up 5lbs here he is now giving weight away to his rivals which could prove a stumbling block.
Lyn Valley is closely matched with Hors De Combat on Newmarket running however so far he has looked as though the handicapper has him where he wants him.
Mawfoor hasn't really developed & ran no sort of race at Ascot last time.
First Flight was well beaten behind What About Carlo last time when he looked in real need of the run with that run under his belt & a turnaround in the weights he must have some sort of chance of getting closer to Carlo this time, place contender.
Hot Coffee ran well on her first handicap against the boys at Chester last time, I can't see that she has much in hand from this mark.
Blimbi is likely to give What About Carlo most to do, he won easily at Musselburgh on Good Friday from Extra Noble who ran well in a strong race at Newbury last weekend, further behind was Bow Creek who ran well in a weak Dee Stakes, he should have plenty more in hand of his current mark but whether he will be more than just a handicapper is debatable whereas Carlo is Group class.
On recent form Grevillea & Almargo are outclassed, Shot In The Sun was behind a horse many believe to be verging on Group class (That Is The Spirit) at York last time, he has been 2nd on his last 3 starts & moves up in grade in a hot race now, work to do.
Huge fan of What About Carlo & think he is well capable of winning again 9/1 Boylesports / BetVictor
Another race likely to form part of the Scoop6 is the 6f sprint, the much improved Barkston Ash heads the weights after winning in excellent style last week, I am a fan of this horse, he has been on my radar since last season & so far this year has stepped up as expected, he will be contesting top quality sprints soon with a Great St Wilfrid standing out as a logical aim, he is also in the Wokingham for which I am currently on at 33/1 so am really hoping he can win again on Saturday to cement his place in the big Ascot showpiece.
Out Do was slightly hampered at York last time even allowing for that he does need more from his current mark as does Polski Max who was well behind Barkston Ash last week.
Gabbiano ran well in a excellent Ascot sprint the other week, he usually saves his best for the Berkshire track & remains in the handicappers grip. Muthmir was due to ruin at Goodwood yesterday, he has been rerouted here in search of better ground, he will no doubt be popular who now as a 4yo from a mark of just 87 could be worth following, his first attempt at a handicap ended in a decent run behind some in form horses at the time & he has been given plenty of time to mature since last August, interesting runner.
If the rains do come & the ground turns dramatically then Grissom has to be given some sort of chance from a very attractive looking mark after a good run the other week at Chester.
Shore Step is a big powerful good looking horse who showed good early speed at Ascot last time before tiring, will strip fitter here & has course winning form, could easily go well at a price. Trader Jack has ability but looks in the handicappers grip as does Al Mukhdam, Go Far & Upavon are outclassed in this grade.
Baby Strange is close to a decent mark, now 10 he has been a grand servant to connections who goes well in cut so if the ground does change a decent run would not come out of the blue, stablemate Run With Pride couldn't be anymore different 1 run 1 win, opening mark looks ok but you just wouldn't know what to expect against seasoned sprinters.
Judging on last weekend's win Barkston Ash 9/1 Coral is well capable of going in again.
The 4:10 could be a race worth following, Cloudscape heads the weights after an abysmal run upped in grade last time, before that he had powered home when his stable was red hot from two very decent animals Windshear (Winner & 2nd in a decent Newbury handicap since) & Volume (Winner Swettenham Stud Trial Listed). He is tongue tied for the first time on Saturday which could make all the difference.
Its a big test for him though as he comes up against some horses with potential & good form to their name, Black Schnapps bolted up on soft ground at Salisbury last time, he is up 9lbs for that in a better race but is respected.
Fire Fighting promises to better suited to middle distances as a 3yo but starts life on a stiff mark on lines through Extra Noble & Top Tug (who was easily beaten by Cloudscape at Newmarket 2 starts back).
Similar comments apply to Devilment judged on Warrior Of Light's run last night.
Wrangler's mark could be a few lbs lower he won a weak looking staying maiden on soft ground at Salisbury last time, he showed much improved form that day so if the rain comes he could easily have more to offer.
Moontime was brushed aside by his stablemate Devilment last time at Kempton, he looks a slow horse who will gradually get better the further he goes in trip, mark is workable but could not fancy him tomorrow. Much more on my radar are the bottom two in the weights Montaly & Fun Mc, they were 1st & 2nd in a Leicester handicap last time.
Fun Mc was victorious that day, he travelled like a nice horse before quickening up to always hold Montaly who was giving him 5lbs for a neck beating that day, on a line through Personal Opinion (finished in front of Raven Ridge (who in turn finished behind Cloudscape at Newmarket)) who Fun Mc beat at Haydock last season he doesn't have much to find with Cloudscape, he is unexposed & improving.
Montaly should really turn the form around with Fun Mc tomorrow as he enjoys a 5lb pull in the weights with courtesy of Oisin Murphy's 3lb claim, he looks a stayer which is no surprise as he is by 4 time Gold Cup winner Yeats so the drop back a furlong may not be ideal, whereas Fun Mc should be fine with it & he could easily still have his measure. Montaly is a horse I like who should go on improving once stepped up to 1m6f & beyond, he could even go to a Queen's Vase at The Royal Meeting.
Decent race in which I like Fun Mc 9/2 Coral to double up.
Goodwood's card on Saturday opens with two Listed races for the older horses, the opening race is The Festival Stakes a race that used to be used as a starting block for big names to kick off their season in fact the late great Mtoto won it back in 1988 (race was voided after the runners took the wrong course) before going on to win The Prince of Wales, Coral Eclipse & The King George that season, it has lost much of its lustre & attracts nowhere near the same quality of horse these days.
Nabucco (the best progeny of the fabulous 1000 Guineas winner Cape Verdi) heads them carrying a 3lb penalty after a hard fought win a Listed race at Newmarket back in November, ground will be fine for him & should go close if ready to roll.
Baltic Knight steps up in trip which wouldn't be immediately obvious on breeding, he looked well at Ascot 2 starts back but in need of the run, he didn't really go on at Windsor next time & has plenty to prove now.
French Navy is a rogue, he should have easily won at Ascot last time (when I really fancied him) after an excellent first run but he got worked up & never went through with his effort.
Quick Wit is yet another Godolphin runner who is more than capable but showed very little in Dubai during the winter. The 4th Godolphin runner is Windhoek who almost won the Winter Derby, he remains unexposed compared to others in this lineup & has the services of the evergreen Kieran Fallon. Starboard has lost the plot & cannot be fancied.
Auction faces a tough task on her first start against the boys.
No bet race for me.
The 1m4f Listed Tapster Stakes looks a straight match between recent Ascot 1-2 Gatewood & Pether's Moon, both at level weights this time I still can see no reason why Gatewood should not come out on top now he has got his head back in front, he looks more straightforward than Pether's Moon.
Blue Surf steps up in grade on his 2nd run of the season, he has ability but is a long way behind these on ratings. Aussie Reigns is a decent little horse who always runs his race, he can pick up the spoils if the front two do not perform as expected. Kellini was well beaten at Ascot behind the front two here & has work to do on his best form. Mirsaale is outclassed & would be a doubtful runner if it rained any more.
Another race to leave alone in terms of financial investment.
The 7f handicap I am assuming will be part of the Scoop6 so it is worth looking at, shock recent Ascot scorer Mick's Yer Man heads the weights that form is working out & he has to respected due to his current form although he is more likely for a place than a win.
Supplicant enters his first handicap on a horrible mark after finishing well down the field in the Greenham, on form lines through Rufford he will do well to finish in front of Mick's Yer Man. Harwoods Volante is another who's mark looks harsh judged on his AWT form, work to do in this. Wahaab was well thought of at 2 but never really produced anything of note, his opening mark looks stiff for all he has course form.
Beau Nash is much better off with Mick's Yer Man on Leicester running earlier in the year, with his talented claimer taking off a valuable 7lbs he is respected.
Wee Jean will do well to finish in front of Beau Nash like he did in that same Leicester race at these weights. Penny Drops finally broke her maiden at Lingfield the other day, the 2nd won yesterday & her opening mark is fair, chances.
Lady Frances work to do & is out of form, Willy Brennan looks on a stiff enough mark & has work to do to turn recent form around with Beau Nash, needs to settle better too. Nakuti is on a career high mark & that looks above her judged on her latest effort.
Beau Nash would be who my Scoop6 pin will land on but will not be betting singularly.
Later on on Goodwood's card I have been impressed with Continuum's 2 runs so far this season in Listed races staying on both times suggesting a step up in trip is what he needs, he gets that at 4:05 & for his shrewd talented trainer I expect him to win off top weight with ground to soon.
Eshtiaal is a horse I liked last season, he should make a nice 4yo, gelding should be the making of him as should a step up in trip & I will have an eye on him for later in the year.
Debdebdeb is a nice staying filly who is respected after an authoritative display at Bath, ground is a worry though as her best form is on a faster surface, she was 2nd to Eshtiaal at Yarmouth last season, he easily beat her that day giving her weight but she has improved markedly since that race. Another Cocktail didn't look to have done that well from 3 - 4 at Epsom on his seasonal debut & was duly beaten out of sight, his stable are in much better form now so it will be interesting to see how he gets on.
Been waiting for Continuum 9/1 William Hill / SkyBet / Betfred to step up in trip & am very hopeful of him in this.
Over at The Curragh its 2000 Guineas day, a race in which Aidan O'Brien has had a strangle hold on for many years now, winning 9 of the last 17 renewals.
He fields 5 this time around, they are of varying abilities, War Command is son Joseph's choice, he ran pretty averagely in The 2000 Guineas at Newmarket although he was disadvantaged by the spilt as he raced in the centre before switching to the stands side I would have preferred to have seen more from him. Johann Strauss finally broke his maiden at Dundalk but he won't be winning a Guineas, Fountain Of Youth had not been seen since Royal Ascot's Windsor Castle Stakes as a 2yo when he reappeared in The Tetrarch Stakes, he looked to have done well from 2 - 3 & was massively in need of the run, he is by Champion filly Attraction so he is not one to give up on at a big price. Michaelmas finished a place in front of Fountain Of Youth last time, he was well fancied but again like FOY looked in need of the run, can improve but is a less scopey sort than his stable companion. Great White Eagle also ran in The Tetrarch finishing 4th, he was never in the race at any time to really challenge so his run can be marked up but his 2yo form leaves him well short in this, would appear to be stable 2nd choice of jockey bookings but will need much more here.
All eyes are on hot favourite Kingman, he didn't fully stay the mile as I expected at Newmarket, this mile is less taxing & although the majority believe the softer ground will be in his favour I would be unsure as he doesn't possess that kind of action, the ground is already yielding (could yet get worse) & that will tax his suspect stamina further for me.
Shifting Power excelled himself at Newmarket under a great ride from Frankie to get him into 5th, ground should be ok on breeding but it may tax his stamina as well, I doubt in truth he is good enough to win a Guineas.
Mustajeeb beat older horses in a Group 3 of his seasonal return, he has developed well from 2 - 3 & from a stable that is currently on fire he must go close with stamina assured.
Mandatorio has to improve to be involved but his trainer will rarely send runners into Classics unless he believes they have a chance so he needs respecting.
Prince Of All has been aimed at this since winning a minor Listed event at Dundalk in early April, has to improve on what he has done so far but not without chances.
Obliterator is a horse who I like but the noises coming from the Ger Lyons camp have not been encouraging with ground sighted as an issue, to me I don't see that as Oratorio's go on cut (Viztoria comes to mind) & he is out of a Rainbow Quest mare whose stock excel of soft, he will need further so I can see him staying on to grab the leaders like he did in his maiden last season.
Big Time could well have been forgotten about he was a very decent Juvenile twice finishing 2nd to Sudirman on ground that would have been faster than ideal, as a Kheleyf he should enjoy any cut & as long as he stays he must have a decent e/w chance, on breeding he has every chance as he is out of a Green Dancer mare.
David's Park I assume is a pacemaker for stablemate Big Time while Dolce N'Karama is over faced as is the norm for horses owned by his connections.
There's a big race in Obliterator & I am willing to take a chance on him at 20/1 Paddy Power / Stan James / BetVictor / Betfred / Coral / William Hill
The Lanwades Stud Stakes features ny NAP of the day in the shape of Peace Burg 5/1 Bet365 who ran a mighty race on her first start for Aidan O'Brien when trying to give 1st 3lbs to yet another nice 3yo filly from the Dermot Weld stable in the shape of Flying Jib,
she handles cut in the ground from her form in France last year & she can take this before going onto better things. Another Dermot Weld filly Big Break (Famous Name's full sister) can give her most to do with her stable in such excellent form.
@fttfracing
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