Hello & welcome along to my blog, Newcastle's premier Flat race of the year is the headline act on a busy Saturday up & down the country.
The main event has been won dominated by 4yo & 6yo's in the last 10 years carrying between carrying between 8-3 - 8-11 with the exception being the last 2 winners who have carried over 9st up until the last 2 years that feat had not been done since 2002. In total since 1985 only 7 horses have carried more than 9st to victory.
The weights this time around are headed by Ascot Gold Cup 6th Oriental Fox who ran as well as he could upped to the top grade (I had hoped he would place but unfortunately he was not good enough), he shaped as though he could still be a force in a top handicap & he gets his chance in the race he was beaten a short head in last year off a 9lb higher mark.
Repeater at his best would have a chance but he is an unreliable rogue who will most likely curl up under pressure.
Sir Ector looks to have far too much weight after running ok in behind Gold Cup winner Leading Light last time, he won a Premier handicap at Leopardstown last year back in November when many of his rivals ran below par & is still suffering the consequences here.
Nearly Caught looks primed to run a huge race, he was a rapid improving 3yo last season rising from a mark 78 to contest a Group 2 in France before an over the top run in last season's November handicap off 102. He was in need of the run in a Group 3 at Newbury on his first start this year before stepping up to 2 miles for the first time at Haydock last time out, settled out the back he stayed on powerfully all the way to line to go down by 2 lengths in the end, it was a huge run giving upwards of 9lbs to the winner. Genuine fast ground should be no issue to him & if there are any showers any easing will be perfect.
Sueigoo was a surprise winner of The Chester Cup & has more on his plate here from 6lbs higher, no horse since Attivo in 1974 has won both historic races in the same season. Big Thunder returns to the track after 274 days away, his trainer is no stranger to getting horses ready after long layoffs, has an awkward draw to contend with here but should be respected on ground that will be perfect.
Boite is another making his seasonal debut, he was a staying on 3rd in last season's Queen's Vase afterwhich we only saw him once more when he finished last in The Bahrain Trophy, clearly had issues & looks quite harshly judged on his first handicap start.
Lucky Bridle is Willie Mullins representative now that Pique Sous has been pulled out so he will be overbet, his form is nothing to write home about & all his best form including when a very minor pattern performer for Christophe Ferland has come with plenty of dig. Tropical Beat has tonnes of ability but does not always consent to show it, this has been the aim since an excellent first run of the season behind Van Percy back in May, with ground a positive he needs considering although the one issue is his draw in 17 for a horse that needs holding up is far from ideal.
Angel Gabrial has never won of a mark higher than 91 so despite a good start to the season with a good win & 2nd behind his owner mate in The Chester Cup where he jinked badly right in the closing stages he has work to do here.
Buthelezi is better known as a hurdler & chaser these days, this is his first start for Brian Ellison, he does not look particularly well handicapped & would be a surprise winner. Noble Silk got first run on Nearly Caught last time, it was a improved display but this mark & draw demands more. Van Percy promises to improve for this kind of trip & is a most consistent handicapper but has been given a god awful draw in 22 so will need a well judged ride from the number 1 apprentice around to get competitive here. Dark Crusader is a floater from a stable that has won this before & does so well with handicappers, she has shown nothing in 3 starts to date this year but could easily do much better here. Ardlui would be my idea of a big outsider who could go well, he was 9/1 when well beaten last year from a poor draw. Ground is ok for him & his trainer has had 2 placed horses in the last 3 years. This will have been his aim & he is now 4lbs below his last winning mark, chances from a decent draw.
Glenard has yet to prove he stays or that he is capable from this sort of mark.
Mawaqeet showed nothing in The Chester Cup & has since been easily beaten over hurdles, he is quirky & needs to be on a going day, if he was he could go well but does have a average draw. Agreement was a useful Juvenile hurdler for John Quinn last winter & before that a pretty average performer for Aidan O'Brien, his chance has be compromised but his poor draw. Totalize has been in decent form so far this season & duly won last time from a reduced mark under an up & coming young girl rider in Megan Carberry, he will need to improve to take a hand in this though.
Waterclock ran abysmally in the Ascot Stakes & is best watched until showing signs of life. The 2 reserves waiting on a run are Poyle Thomas & Hassle;
Polye Thomas deserves a step up in grade after a nice win over 1m7f at Newmarket in late May, he is lightly raced for a 5yo & could run well for a long way from a good draw. Hassle had won 2 on the bounce before coming unstuck at Chester back in May, it looked as though the handicapper had caught up with him & he needs more to get involved in this better quality handicap.
Backing up The Plate are some decent supporting races starting with a 6f handicap; Clear Spring resumed winning ways last time at Windsor, he is an improved sprinter in the last 12 months but now finds himself on a career high mark from a tough draw.
Doc Hay is due to contest Friday night's Gosforth Park Cup so I would be be surprised if he turned out again. Pipers Note looked an improved young sprinter after completing a double in the middle of last summer, he has been off a long time which suggests that there have been issues so he is best watched on his seasonal debut as a 4yo.
Kimberella has been beaten on his last 2 starts off a mark of 90, he is reduced by 1lb but still looks in the handicapper's grip. Picture Dealer has been easily brushed aside on his last 3 starts, remains high enough & is another with work to do.
Muthmir makes his long awaited reappearance after missing a couple of engagements, he remains with potential at this trip as a 4yo from a good looking mark, one would hope he is fit enough having been ready to run over a month ago, draw should be ok & he should have enough to get involved. Nameitwhatyoulike has not been seen since March & ground looks as though it will be far too fast for him.
Mississippi has yet to add to a Kempton maiden win but does have some form over this trip on fast ground & he ran a much better race last time out, chances from a good draw. Jack Luey has been in good form on his last 2 starts with placed efforts over 5f, ground will be fine but does need to prove that he conclusively stays 6f.
Above Standard is a potential improver this year after some good efforts last season, was in need of his belated first run of the season last time on soft ground so I would not be at all surprised if he did get involved at the business end from a mark that should be fine. Tarooq is miles better on the AW & Grissom needs softer ground to be considered. Tatlisu has not been helped by the handicapper on recent starts looking a little tripless not having the pace for 6f & getting tired over 7f, he is steadily dropping down the weights but not quick enough in a decent race like this. Lewisham has promised much but has so far still only won a Kempton maiden, cannot be backed with any confidence.
Kimberella has been beaten on his last 2 starts off a mark of 90, he is reduced by 1lb but still looks in the handicapper's grip. Picture Dealer has been easily brushed aside on his last 3 starts, remains high enough & is another with work to do.
Muthmir makes his long awaited reappearance after missing a couple of engagements, he remains with potential at this trip as a 4yo from a good looking mark, one would hope he is fit enough having been ready to run over a month ago, draw should be ok & he should have enough to get involved. Nameitwhatyoulike has not been seen since March & ground looks as though it will be far too fast for him.
Mississippi has yet to add to a Kempton maiden win but does have some form over this trip on fast ground & he ran a much better race last time out, chances from a good draw. Jack Luey has been in good form on his last 2 starts with placed efforts over 5f, ground will be fine but does need to prove that he conclusively stays 6f.
Above Standard is a potential improver this year after some good efforts last season, was in need of his belated first run of the season last time on soft ground so I would not be at all surprised if he did get involved at the business end from a mark that should be fine. Tarooq is miles better on the AW & Grissom needs softer ground to be considered. Tatlisu has not been helped by the handicapper on recent starts looking a little tripless not having the pace for 6f & getting tired over 7f, he is steadily dropping down the weights but not quick enough in a decent race like this. Lewisham has promised much but has so far still only won a Kempton maiden, cannot be backed with any confidence.
Not a race I will be investing in.
The Group 3 Chipchase Stakes has cut up from a decent 5 day entry which is disappointing; Old Hitchens has been a grand servant over the years but is well out of form & cannot be considered. Mass Rally loves big handicaps where he can weave in between horses & come there swinging off the bridle, he ran perhaps his best ever race when a decent 3rd at his beloved York in The Duke of York last time & was a good 2nd in this race last year, needs respecting in a below par renewal.
Ruwaiyan drops down to 6f for the first time in his career on his first foray into patter company, improving but will find sprinting a shock to the system.
Sir Maximilian failed to make the cut for last weekend's Wokingham, after a long layoff he looked better than ever at Chester when bolting up over 5f. He is lightly raced so remains with potential upped in grade, he has yet to win at 6f which is a slight worry but could easily follow the path of the trainers former top sprinter Les Arcs who came from nowhere back in 2006 to scoop a Diamond Jubilee & a July Cup.
Body And Soul is a game filly who mixes handicaps & pattern company, been in good form on her last 2 starts & has been found an excellent opportunity to make the breakthrough in pattern company. Danzeno was well beaten before wandering badly in the Betbright Sprint at York last time when he had been expected to win, trainer rates him highly & its significant he pops up here but whether rattling fast ground is his bag is a doubt.
Saayerr is stuck between two stalls rated high enough to contest pattern races but not good enough & rated too high for handicaps, he missed the Wokingham due to the ground last week so he must be a doubt for this as well.
Ruwaiyan drops down to 6f for the first time in his career on his first foray into patter company, improving but will find sprinting a shock to the system.
Sir Maximilian failed to make the cut for last weekend's Wokingham, after a long layoff he looked better than ever at Chester when bolting up over 5f. He is lightly raced so remains with potential upped in grade, he has yet to win at 6f which is a slight worry but could easily follow the path of the trainers former top sprinter Les Arcs who came from nowhere back in 2006 to scoop a Diamond Jubilee & a July Cup.
Body And Soul is a game filly who mixes handicaps & pattern company, been in good form on her last 2 starts & has been found an excellent opportunity to make the breakthrough in pattern company. Danzeno was well beaten before wandering badly in the Betbright Sprint at York last time when he had been expected to win, trainer rates him highly & its significant he pops up here but whether rattling fast ground is his bag is a doubt.
Saayerr is stuck between two stalls rated high enough to contest pattern races but not good enough & rated too high for handicaps, he missed the Wokingham due to the ground last week so he must be a doubt for this as well.
Interesting race if very much below Group standard, another no bet for me though.
My Freedom heads the weights in a tight looking 7f handicap, he ran well on his last 2 starts in Dubai in the early part of the year & resumes in the UK off a career high mark, he was a winner at this meeting last season. Victoire De Lyphar rattled up a hat trick earlier in the year making the most of his reduced mark, he looked well held last time out from his new mark & needs more. Royal Rascal has been in the handicapper's grip for awhile now & I can't see the step up to a mile helping.
Clockmaker bounced back to form last time at Goodwood from a much reduced mark, he has won off as high as 91 before but never any higher so his new mark of 94 will likely have him in the handicapper's pocket. Cosmic Chatter is another disappointing horse who has yet to add to a maiden victory, steps up to a mile for the first time & cannot see that suiting. Dream Walker is a most consistent horse who has been found a winnable opportunity, softer ground is his preferred surface but he has shown form a faster going & with Oisin Murphy booked he should go well.
Smarty Socks showed there was still fire in the belly with a better effort last time, he has been competitive off similar marks in the past.
Foxtrot Romeo looks to be coming to the boil nicely after a good run on better ground at York last time, as a 3yo he was 2nd to Power in a Irish 2000 Guineas so it would be disappointing if he could not win from a mark of 91.
Apostle is more than capable from this sort of mark but usually finds at least 1 or 2 better than him. Farlow remains on 90 as he has done for his last 3 starts & should get involved on this better ground from an in-form stable. Prince's Trust has switched to Willie Haggas's stable as a 4yo who have not been running that great in the last 2 weeks, lightly raced after just 4 starts he starts the season on the same mark of 88 which he should be capable from although his last run as a 3yo was most disappointing.
Almargo is out again for his 3rd start in less than 2 weeks, after bolting up at Epsom he has looked held the last twice from his new mark & stamina for the mile does appear to be an issue.
Foxtrot Romeo should be hard to beat if reproducing his last run but again it's another race I will leave alone.
Clockmaker bounced back to form last time at Goodwood from a much reduced mark, he has won off as high as 91 before but never any higher so his new mark of 94 will likely have him in the handicapper's pocket. Cosmic Chatter is another disappointing horse who has yet to add to a maiden victory, steps up to a mile for the first time & cannot see that suiting. Dream Walker is a most consistent horse who has been found a winnable opportunity, softer ground is his preferred surface but he has shown form a faster going & with Oisin Murphy booked he should go well.
Smarty Socks showed there was still fire in the belly with a better effort last time, he has been competitive off similar marks in the past.
Foxtrot Romeo looks to be coming to the boil nicely after a good run on better ground at York last time, as a 3yo he was 2nd to Power in a Irish 2000 Guineas so it would be disappointing if he could not win from a mark of 91.
Apostle is more than capable from this sort of mark but usually finds at least 1 or 2 better than him. Farlow remains on 90 as he has done for his last 3 starts & should get involved on this better ground from an in-form stable. Prince's Trust has switched to Willie Haggas's stable as a 4yo who have not been running that great in the last 2 weeks, lightly raced after just 4 starts he starts the season on the same mark of 88 which he should be capable from although his last run as a 3yo was most disappointing.
Almargo is out again for his 3rd start in less than 2 weeks, after bolting up at Epsom he has looked held the last twice from his new mark & stamina for the mile does appear to be an issue.
Foxtrot Romeo should be hard to beat if reproducing his last run but again it's another race I will leave alone.
Newmarket stages a decent meeting on Saturday featuring 3 Listed Races & a Group3;
2yo fillies are out in The Empress Stakes with shock Kempton winner Accipiter heading them, she won readily enough but one does wonder if that was due to her apprentice's 3lb claim as much as raw talent, we shall all see on Saturday.
Bonnie Grey is indeed a bonnie little filly, she made a taking debut & was not disgraced upped in class at Sandown behind Tiggy Wiggy last time, should go close.
Cajoling was well beaten behind Bonnie Grey last time but perhaps the ground was as much to blame, better ground here will suit. Calypso Beat made all to win an average Leicester maiden last time, she is another to have been helped by her jockey's claim this time 7lbs, more required here. Juventas drops back in trip after a well beaten 9th place in last week's Chesham. Littlemissblakeney ran a mighty race in last week's Queen Mary keeping on for 5th after showing good early speed, its hard to take that form literally as pace horses had a distinct advantage last week & she is a small filly so whether she can back that up here is debatable. Parsley has looked far from out of the ordinary in 2 starts to date, the step up to 6f will be fine but needs to improve.
Tigrilla has only raced on soft to date running a good debut before winning next time, better ground should not be an issue & is respected representing powerful connections. Zeb Un Nisa has no issues regarding the fast ground, she looked potentially useful last time when winning easily by 5 lengths at Bath, the 2nd that day has since finished around 3.5 lengths behind Littlemissblakeney in last week's Queen Mary so the form looks good. The one to beat in my eyes.
Bonnie Grey is indeed a bonnie little filly, she made a taking debut & was not disgraced upped in class at Sandown behind Tiggy Wiggy last time, should go close.
Cajoling was well beaten behind Bonnie Grey last time but perhaps the ground was as much to blame, better ground here will suit. Calypso Beat made all to win an average Leicester maiden last time, she is another to have been helped by her jockey's claim this time 7lbs, more required here. Juventas drops back in trip after a well beaten 9th place in last week's Chesham. Littlemissblakeney ran a mighty race in last week's Queen Mary keeping on for 5th after showing good early speed, its hard to take that form literally as pace horses had a distinct advantage last week & she is a small filly so whether she can back that up here is debatable. Parsley has looked far from out of the ordinary in 2 starts to date, the step up to 6f will be fine but needs to improve.
Tigrilla has only raced on soft to date running a good debut before winning next time, better ground should not be an issue & is respected representing powerful connections. Zeb Un Nisa has no issues regarding the fast ground, she looked potentially useful last time when winning easily by 5 lengths at Bath, the 2nd that day has since finished around 3.5 lengths behind Littlemissblakeney in last week's Queen Mary so the form looks good. The one to beat in my eyes.
Rarely bet in 2yo filly events of this nature.
Gatewood goes for a hat trick of Listed victory in the Fred Archer Stakes, now he is in form he really cannot be discounted. Battalion remains with potential after a poor finish in The Aston Park Stakes last time out, he was pulled out of the Coronation Cup due to the ground so he will need rain to be considered.
Cameron Highland is consistent in this grade & makes his seasonal debut, he will most likely need this as an attempt to win a 3rd August Stakes at Windsor is high on the agenda. Chancery is a decent old stick but is usually found out in this grade.
Energia Eros showed nothing on his last 2 starts at Meydan & Lingfield after two 2nd place finishes in Group 1's in Brazil & Chile, blinkered for the first time he is best watched. Rawaki has been in decent form so far this season in this grade without looking like winning, he was pulled out the other day in a similar contest & will likely find a couple too good. Sheikhzayadroad appeared much more tractable in a 3 runner Group 3 last time on desperate ground, he only just lost out with a powerful late drive, this race promises to suit better on his preferred ground, receiving 3lbs from Gatewood gives him outstanding claims of gaining a first win in Listed company.
Zambucca was well outclassed at Royal Ascot, he was below top class in South Africa so this grade should at least suit better but I don't see him troubling the big two.
Cameron Highland is consistent in this grade & makes his seasonal debut, he will most likely need this as an attempt to win a 3rd August Stakes at Windsor is high on the agenda. Chancery is a decent old stick but is usually found out in this grade.
Energia Eros showed nothing on his last 2 starts at Meydan & Lingfield after two 2nd place finishes in Group 1's in Brazil & Chile, blinkered for the first time he is best watched. Rawaki has been in decent form so far this season in this grade without looking like winning, he was pulled out the other day in a similar contest & will likely find a couple too good. Sheikhzayadroad appeared much more tractable in a 3 runner Group 3 last time on desperate ground, he only just lost out with a powerful late drive, this race promises to suit better on his preferred ground, receiving 3lbs from Gatewood gives him outstanding claims of gaining a first win in Listed company.
Zambucca was well outclassed at Royal Ascot, he was below top class in South Africa so this grade should at least suit better but I don't see him troubling the big two.
Wouldn't normally consider betting in a race like this but Sheikhzayadroad WON 11/2 looks to have been found a decent opportunity & can take this receiving weight from Gatewood.
The feature event on Newmarket's card is The Criterion Stakes won over the years by some top animals Cadeaux Genereux 1988, Zilzal '89 & Diktat '99. This years renewal looks well up to scratch & the field is headed by old Penitent who can never be discounted but now has work to do giving weight away to his rivals.
Top Notch Tonto is a doubtful runner unless there is significant rain.
Eton Forever still has yet to win above Listed Class & despite another good run last time he has work to do. Gabriel's Lad tries pattern company once more after an effortless victory in The Victoria Cup at Ascot, my main concern is that he is much better in those big field races & struggles in races with less than 10 runners.
Garswood is a fine looking beast who has been disappointing so far, blinkers are now reached for & if they sharpen him up he should be involved.
Gregorian was disappointing in attempting to retain his Diomed crown at Epsom, perhaps as an older horse he needed that first run back so better could be expected here. Highland Colori was easily put in his place when attempting this kind of company after his Ayr Gold Cup success last year & so far this year has looked out of sorts. Tawhid was in need of his first run of the year behind several of these last time, he was due to contest last weekend's Diamond Jubilee but was taken out due to the fast ground which is again an issue. Indignant got her black type when winning at Salisbury last time, she benefitted from a good ride from Pat Dobbs whereas Hughes gave stablemate Professor too much to do, she needs more upped again in grade.
Top Notch Tonto is a doubtful runner unless there is significant rain.
Eton Forever still has yet to win above Listed Class & despite another good run last time he has work to do. Gabriel's Lad tries pattern company once more after an effortless victory in The Victoria Cup at Ascot, my main concern is that he is much better in those big field races & struggles in races with less than 10 runners.
Garswood is a fine looking beast who has been disappointing so far, blinkers are now reached for & if they sharpen him up he should be involved.
Gregorian was disappointing in attempting to retain his Diomed crown at Epsom, perhaps as an older horse he needed that first run back so better could be expected here. Highland Colori was easily put in his place when attempting this kind of company after his Ayr Gold Cup success last year & so far this year has looked out of sorts. Tawhid was in need of his first run of the year behind several of these last time, he was due to contest last weekend's Diamond Jubilee but was taken out due to the fast ground which is again an issue. Indignant got her black type when winning at Salisbury last time, she benefitted from a good ride from Pat Dobbs whereas Hughes gave stablemate Professor too much to do, she needs more upped again in grade.
Tough race which will boil down to who wants to take their winning chance this time.
Windsor's 3 day summer festival kicks off on Saturday with what is always the best card of the meeting featuring a Listed race & a couple of decent handicaps.
Al Saham heads the weights for the 1m3f 4yo+ handicap after an impressive success on vastly different ground at Ascot last time, the handicapper has put him up accordingly & he will need to improve again. Ex Australian Kellini continues his tour of the southern tracks with a stop at Windsor, taking into account his decent young riders claim he is nearing a weight that gives him a chance of competing if his ability remains, as a 4yo he won The Lexus Handicap Grade 3 carrying 9st before finishing a fantastic 4th carrying 8st in The Melbourne Cup 3 days later. Viewpoint has shown nothing on his last 2 starts & remains in the handicapper's embrace. Border Legend is edging up the handicap after a couple of decent runs, he has course winning form after breaking his maiden here 2 years ago, chances. Ajman Bridge like so many from his stable was in need of his first run at Lingfield last time, he has blinkers to assist for the first time on Saturday & remains with potential to improve at 4, should be involved.
Cashpoint reverted to type from his upgraded mark last time after his shock win in Redcar's Zetland Gold Cup. Modernism is another you cannot put too much faith in after a series of decent efforts he ran a stinker last time out.
Nicolascopernicus has shown very little so far this season on his favoured soft ground, edging down the handicap & should edge down a bit more after Saturday if he runs on ground that won't suit. Resurge has run below par at his beloved Epsom both times this season, he has a win at Windsor to his name so if he retains all his ability is more than capable from this mark. Pasakha Boy looked laboured at Epsom last time in a race where it paid to race close to the pace, looks held at present.
Even at his best Mica Mika would not be up to this.
Cashpoint reverted to type from his upgraded mark last time after his shock win in Redcar's Zetland Gold Cup. Modernism is another you cannot put too much faith in after a series of decent efforts he ran a stinker last time out.
Nicolascopernicus has shown very little so far this season on his favoured soft ground, edging down the handicap & should edge down a bit more after Saturday if he runs on ground that won't suit. Resurge has run below par at his beloved Epsom both times this season, he has a win at Windsor to his name so if he retains all his ability is more than capable from this mark. Pasakha Boy looked laboured at Epsom last time in a race where it paid to race close to the pace, looks held at present.
Even at his best Mica Mika would not be up to this.
Decent enough race but again another non betting race for me.
One of the feature races of Windsor's season follows The Midsummer Stakes over the mile; the usual suspects are out in force in this with the much improved Ocean Tempest heading them, he won a similar race over course & distance earlier on in the year when he was in rude health, he has gone off the boil since with this fast ground unlikely to suit. Baltic Knight has been behind Ocean Tempest twice this year & looked a non stayer over 10f last time out, he looks set to struggle again.
Boom And Bust has not been seen since a last place finish in the Earl of Sefton first time out, a genuine front runner on fast ground for a trainer who has got progressively worse over the last 8 years since Sir Percy won the Derby, if BAB is at his best then he has a chance. Custom Cut is consistent but his best wins have come on much softer ground.
Emell is not up to this grade, Empire Storm is respected back in grade but will most likely be hassled on the pace. Fire Ship has been struggling so far this season & is best on a softer surface. Free Wheeling returns to the UK after an excellent winter campaign at Meydan where he confirmed his liking for the Tapeta surface with an easy victory on his last start, at least Listed class when trained in Australia he should be fine on this fast ground & has looked ready to run on his last 2 pieces of work, must go close.
Rosearrow ran a much better race last time but surely he would have been better in a handicap rather than stepping to a grade he doesn't really look up to.
Short Squeeze was fancied by many to go well in The Hunt Cup last week but finished a hugely disappointing 26th of 28, that was his first run of the year. In his blog his eloquent trainer said he 'pulled far too hard after the field split as he was left with no cover' so surely cover in an 11 runner race is also potentially an issue as is reappearing only 10 days later regardless of whether he had a hard race. The horse improved greatly last season & ended up not getting beat that far in a Group 3 on his final start getting beat so he clearly should be up to this kind of class but I would like to see him do it first before backing him. Fanoos goes in search of some valuable Black type & it will be a result if she can find some.
Boom And Bust has not been seen since a last place finish in the Earl of Sefton first time out, a genuine front runner on fast ground for a trainer who has got progressively worse over the last 8 years since Sir Percy won the Derby, if BAB is at his best then he has a chance. Custom Cut is consistent but his best wins have come on much softer ground.
Emell is not up to this grade, Empire Storm is respected back in grade but will most likely be hassled on the pace. Fire Ship has been struggling so far this season & is best on a softer surface. Free Wheeling returns to the UK after an excellent winter campaign at Meydan where he confirmed his liking for the Tapeta surface with an easy victory on his last start, at least Listed class when trained in Australia he should be fine on this fast ground & has looked ready to run on his last 2 pieces of work, must go close.
Rosearrow ran a much better race last time but surely he would have been better in a handicap rather than stepping to a grade he doesn't really look up to.
Short Squeeze was fancied by many to go well in The Hunt Cup last week but finished a hugely disappointing 26th of 28, that was his first run of the year. In his blog his eloquent trainer said he 'pulled far too hard after the field split as he was left with no cover' so surely cover in an 11 runner race is also potentially an issue as is reappearing only 10 days later regardless of whether he had a hard race. The horse improved greatly last season & ended up not getting beat that far in a Group 3 on his final start getting beat so he clearly should be up to this kind of class but I would like to see him do it first before backing him. Fanoos goes in search of some valuable Black type & it will be a result if she can find some.
I do think Free Wheeling (Finished Tailed off disappointing) will take the beating in this & he will do for me.
A small field of 13 runners go to post for the big 6f handicap on the card headed by Morache Music who has work to do from his mark on ground that is against him.
Ashpan Sam bids to follow up an all the way win on Derby Day at Epsom, he was impressive that day & looks a sprinter on the up.
Shropshire makes his seasonal debut after what was easily his best racing season to date last time around, he starts on a career high mark & will need this on his return.
Arnold Lane continues to run for the handicapper & needs some respite.
Valbchek has shown nothing on his last 3 starts & cannot be fancied in this.
Desert Law gets a hood for the first time on his favoured fast ground, he ran some promising races in Dubai earlier in the year which suggested a win was not far off, forget his first run back as the ground had gone. He has an outstanding chance from 3lbs below his last winning mark.
Humidor is best at 5f & needs some more help from the handicappers after years of running in grades he could not compete in. Goldream finally won a race after threatening to all last season on his first start this time around, he followed that up with another decent effort & has to be respected. Secret Witness remains on his last winning mark & has a good draw to attack the race from, place contender.
Gamesome ran as if the fast ground was if he hated the fast ground on his seasonal debut with a rounded action which is a worry here, ran ok in against his own age group in the Betbright last time on good ground but needs more taking on his elders for the first time here. El Viento looked on his way back last time out in a top sprint at York, should get involved. Fairway To Heaven has been struggling for form so far this season as has his trainer.
Ashpan Sam bids to follow up an all the way win on Derby Day at Epsom, he was impressive that day & looks a sprinter on the up.
Shropshire makes his seasonal debut after what was easily his best racing season to date last time around, he starts on a career high mark & will need this on his return.
Arnold Lane continues to run for the handicapper & needs some respite.
Valbchek has shown nothing on his last 3 starts & cannot be fancied in this.
Desert Law gets a hood for the first time on his favoured fast ground, he ran some promising races in Dubai earlier in the year which suggested a win was not far off, forget his first run back as the ground had gone. He has an outstanding chance from 3lbs below his last winning mark.
Humidor is best at 5f & needs some more help from the handicappers after years of running in grades he could not compete in. Goldream finally won a race after threatening to all last season on his first start this time around, he followed that up with another decent effort & has to be respected. Secret Witness remains on his last winning mark & has a good draw to attack the race from, place contender.
Gamesome ran as if the fast ground was if he hated the fast ground on his seasonal debut with a rounded action which is a worry here, ran ok in against his own age group in the Betbright last time on good ground but needs more taking on his elders for the first time here. El Viento looked on his way back last time out in a top sprint at York, should get involved. Fairway To Heaven has been struggling for form so far this season as has his trainer.
Desert Law (Didn't quite last home in 4th place) needs it like a road so the recent rain is a slight concern but he should be classy enough to cope & from a good draw he should go very close.
I will mention the Irish Derby even though it is the most uninspiring of fields, yes we all know Australia is pegasus but surely there must be more than 3 trainers willing to take him on? I have nothing against the horse but I do despise the Coolmore domination of middle distance races.
Australia; any horse can be beaten but with 3 stablemates running for you in a field of 7 its not likely to be this race.
Fascinating Rock didn't get the best of runs at Epsom but as I said then remains the same here, I cannot see him staying.
Geoffrey Chaucer never travelled at Epsom, easier track will help & can place. Kingfisher was outclassed at Epsom, same fate awaits here.
Kingston Hill got a peach of a ride at Epsom from young Italian Andrea Atzeni, if he can display nerves of steal to not get caught up in whatever tactics Ballydoyle have planned & delay going for home until the last possible moment (as I doubt that he truly stays 1m4f) then there is a chance he can get Australia but that is only a small chance. (In any case he may not run if there is no significant rainfall at The Curragh)
Of course there is always the flip side to that & that is Kingston Hill is owned by Derrick Smith's son so why would they want Kingston Hill to ruin the new super horse's stallion prospects by beating him.
Orchestra was outclassed at Epsom looking slow after acting up in the paddock.
The newcomer to the party is John Oxx's Ponfeigh who won an ordinary 4 runner mile race last time out after having won his maiden by a neck on his first start this season, he steps up a full 4f on his biggest test to date, his dam is an unraced daughter of the late Mark Of Esteem who's full brother Englishtown won upto 2m6f over hurdles for Jonjo O'Neill. He has no chance on what he has shown so far.
Australia; any horse can be beaten but with 3 stablemates running for you in a field of 7 its not likely to be this race.
Fascinating Rock didn't get the best of runs at Epsom but as I said then remains the same here, I cannot see him staying.
Geoffrey Chaucer never travelled at Epsom, easier track will help & can place. Kingfisher was outclassed at Epsom, same fate awaits here.
Kingston Hill got a peach of a ride at Epsom from young Italian Andrea Atzeni, if he can display nerves of steal to not get caught up in whatever tactics Ballydoyle have planned & delay going for home until the last possible moment (as I doubt that he truly stays 1m4f) then there is a chance he can get Australia but that is only a small chance. (In any case he may not run if there is no significant rainfall at The Curragh)
Of course there is always the flip side to that & that is Kingston Hill is owned by Derrick Smith's son so why would they want Kingston Hill to ruin the new super horse's stallion prospects by beating him.
Orchestra was outclassed at Epsom looking slow after acting up in the paddock.
The newcomer to the party is John Oxx's Ponfeigh who won an ordinary 4 runner mile race last time out after having won his maiden by a neck on his first start this season, he steps up a full 4f on his biggest test to date, his dam is an unraced daughter of the late Mark Of Esteem who's full brother Englishtown won upto 2m6f over hurdles for Jonjo O'Neill. He has no chance on what he has shown so far.
@fttfracing
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