Hello & welcome to the first of this week's blog's, I trust I find you all well. Last weekend saw the glorious confirmation of what I had known all along that Mukhadram is a genuine Group 1 animal & a thoroughly deserving Group 1 winner at that, after a string of high class efforts in top company. I personally don't see any reason to crab him on Sat, the pace was fast far from dawdling like some people have been saying with all the fractions on par or slightly ahead thanks to Somewhat & in part Mukhadram tanking in behind him, the others were just beset by bad rides & not being up to it.
The Fugue disappointed again at Sandown; maybe she doesn't like the course & her jockey looked to be suffering from a little bit of overconfidence, I cannot see how the ground was blamed as she won on a similar recently rained on surface in last year's Irish Champion Stakes. The 3yo's were not upto the task, as I had reasoned in last Sat's blog....just because it looks as though we have two high class 3yo's in Kingman & Australia does not mean that those in behind are top class...Night Of Thunder as predicted did not
stay as so many from his stable do not, he was also more than likely not up to this grade
at this stage of his career, in my eyes he will struggle to win again this season.
stay as so many from his stable do not, he was also more than likely not up to this grade
at this stage of his career, in my eyes he will struggle to win again this season.
Kingston Hill was never going to win on that firm ground even with a rain shower, he looks tripless (I don't believe he gets the 1m4f truly let alone 1m6f as some people have been suggesting & he doesn't have the pace for 1m2f) & extremely ground dependent to me. True Story ran well for me but just looks at this stage of his development below Group 1 class, he will benefit from dropping in grade & still has the potential to be a nice 4yo. War Command was not up to the task which was no real surprise to me, he needs his sights lowering & a return to the mile beckons. Somewhat excelled himself in 3rd, he made all setting a decent pace but still had the tenacity to stay on again holding off Kingston Hill, it was a step back in the right direction for this former classy 2yo. Verrazano didn't appear to handle Sandown or the recent rain that had fallen.
Why Trading Leather had been 25/1 earlier in the week & even 12/1 on the day in
comparison to other rivals was baffling to me. He came right back to form & will no doubt win a top class race in the next few months.
comparison to other rivals was baffling to me. He came right back to form & will no doubt win a top class race in the next few months.
On to this week's action now & attention turns to the first major festival of high summer; Newmarket's Moet & Chandon July Festival which kicks off on Thursday. It may not have the stature of a Glorious Goodwood or the quality of an Ebor Festival but it still manages to produce some top class action on Newmarket's beautiful July course.
It all kicks off with an early St leger trial The Bahrain Trophy which in recent years has been farmed by John Gosden who has saddled the last 3 winners. He was due to run Derby 3rd Romsdal but has instead opted for Forever Now who is a full brother to the stables 2011 winner Shantaram who had very similar form lines coming into this race, he is all about stamina & should be respected from a top stable.
Bunker steps up again in trip after finishing well beaten on his last 2 starts at 1m2f & 1m4f, on each of those he has not looked as though a further step up is what he needs which is extremely doubtful on breeding & to me he has not trained on.
Hartnell drops back in trip after staying on strongly to win The Queen's Vase at The Royal Meeting & should prove extremely hard to beat. Odeon must learn to settle if he is to have any chance of staying this trip as he attempts to win this race like his full brother Kite Wood did back in 2009. The Corsican looks another stamina laden colt after a Kempton maiden win but is facing at least 2 or 3 rivals who are much better than what he has shown so far, he is of course entitled to improve but will need to take a hand here. Vent De Force is on a hat-trick after 2 wins in softer conditions over 1m6f in handicaps, this demands more but is a rapid improver from a shrewd stable.
Windshear steps out of handicap company for the first time after another cracking effort last time behind the impressive Elite Army, he will be fine with an extra furlong & rates a player. Stamina will be no issue for Honor Bound either but class will be as she won an extremely weak Lingfield Oaks Trial before being well beaten in the Oaks itself, tough task against the boys here.
No bet race for me.
The July Stakes has suffered in recent years, the last horse to win & go on to Group level was Arcano in 2009 but he failed to train on at 3, the last top class horse to come from the race was Noverre in 2000, he went on to win the following season's Sussex Stakes. This year's renewal looks Ivawood's for the taking, you could not fail to be impressed with the ease & style of his debut victory at Sandown a few weeks ago. A decent stamp of a horse he travelled powerfully in behind before easing out & winning as he liked in the style of a Group performer, so far 2 in behind have won.
Dougal has won two on the bounce in a much lesser grade & looks outclassed despite the horse he dead-heated with last time (Justice Good) having finished 4th in The Coventry. Angelic Lord was a respectable 6th in The Coventry but requires more here. George Bowen looked a nice type of horse on debut strong & compact, he won nicely at Carlisle in an ordinary maiden in a slow time so more is required.
The fact that Belardo was able to win so comfortably on debut speaks volumes as he is a half brother to stamina laden Smoky Hill & the quirky but talented Berling, it was not unexpected either as he was a warm 8/13f, on the face of it he had little to do as it looked quite a weak race so far only one horse has run from & was well beaten. He could be useful but will need to step up here. Jungle Cat brings the best piece of form into the race with a excellent 3rd place in The Coventry at Royal Ascot, he showed good speed & tenacity that day, should be involved.
Lightning Stride has been disappointing since breaking his maiden & could be in for the pace angle for his owner mate Mind Of Madness who got lost in The Windsor Castle before reappearing 2 days later & staying on through beaten horses to finish 2nd in the Norfolk, which gives him a chance.
Mubtaghaa & Muhaarar represents Sheikh Hamdan who has won the last 2 renewals of this race; Mubtaghaa ran into a monster in the shape of Hootenanny last time, he kept on well over a trip that looked too short for him in the ends & the step up here should see him a better light, quite a compact individual & well regarded.
Muhaarar won impressively on debut at Doncaster 59 days ago, it is a negative for me that an early 2yo has not been seen in such a long time so it suggests there has been a problem. Ustinov missed Ascot after winning his maiden a few days before, it was a reasonably impressive success for this half brother to 2 stakes winning fillies & he deserves a try in pattern company.
Didn't expect such a big price on Ivawood (WON) 9/2 William Hill & Betfred but thank you very much.
Over the years the Princess of Wales's Stakes has been a benefit for the Sir Michael Stoute stable, he has won 9 renewals since 186 & 5 out of the last 9. The stable hold a strong hand once again running 2; the rapidly improving Arab Spring heads the stable duo, he has taken time to get to a pattern race, i remember seeing him finish a good 2nd to Elkaayed on debut as a 3yo last year & thinking this is a Group horse waiting to happen although I never expected it to be so long in coming. He was not seen again at 3 but returned earlier this year breaking his maiden on the AW at Kempton since then he has remained unbeaten putting in perhaps his most impressive performance last time when running away with a competitive handicap at the Royal Meeting, he should take all the beating in this as he chases a perfect 5 from 5 this season.
Stablemate Hillstar will again be ridden by Frankie who came in for stick over his riding of the horse last time behind Telescope, for me the horse never travelled a yard of the strong pace & when he finally got going he stayed on well to nab a distant 2nd, he was just not meant to win last time as it was all about Telescope. This time I am sure he will run better but I do honestly believe that Arab Spring is a better animal with much more improvement left in him whereas Hillstar is a nearly horse.
Godolphin run 2 with the unlucky Dubai Gold Cup 2nd old Cavalryman dropping back to 12f on his first UK run of the year, he was 3rd in this last year & has never been up to this class in Europe over this trip since his 3yo days.
Stablemate the younger much improved Excellent Result on the other hand warrants respect, he made steady improvement throughout the winter & would have been a highly unlucky loser should the gaps have not opened up in time when he won The Dubai City of Gold Group 2. On his next start his first at Group 1 level he found all happening quicker than he was used too & was not up to it. As a result of his Group 2 win he carries a 3lb penalty which will be enough to prevent him from winning on his UK return but I am expecting him to show up well, he will be one to be interested for Group races at this trip for the remainder of the season.
Dandino was in need of the run last time out but still showed very little, he was last in this race behind Dual Melbourne Cup hero Fiorente & a return trip down under is where his season is heading.
His stablemate Seismos is another on the Melbourne Cup & international trail, his German form gives a minor chance if at his best like when winning a weak Group 1 last August from 2 horses (Empoli & Girolamo) who have not set the world alight since.
Gatewood was beating in a driving finish last time over course & distance, a highly consistent horse he has yet to breakthrough at Group level in this country & faces 2 unexposed animals here.
Pether's Moon was well clear of the remainder behind Telescope at Ascot which gives him a chance in this although for me he hasn't yet bridged the gap from Listed to Group company.
Will leave Arab Spring alone this time as it could be a tactical race.
What has always been a cracking 3yo old 1m2f handicap over the years has attracted a quality looking field this time around, it has been won by some classy horses over the years namely;
Maputo 2013 (went on to win at Listed & Group 2 level),
Hearthstead Maison 2007 (went on to win Group 3 Kilternan Stakes & Listed Foundation Stakes),
Formal Decree 2006 (Won Cambridgeshire Handicap 2006 / Al Rashidiya Group 3 2007 / Strawberry Burrah Stakes Listed & Knickerbocker Handicap Grade 3 2008),
Leoporello 2003 (Went onto win Winter Hill Group 3 & Select Stakes Group 3 the same year),
Zindabad 1999 (Went on to win Winter Hill Group 3 '99 / Mercury Stakes Listed 2001 / John Porter Grp 3, Yorkshire Cup Grp2 & Hardwicke Grp 2 in 2002),
Hitman '98 (Won Grade 2 Dovecote Nov Hurdle in 2002)
& Memorise '97 (Won Curragh Cup Grp 3 in '98).
4 of the last 10 winners had won on their previous start.
3 of the last 10 winners were dropping back into Handicaps from Group races.
8 of the last 10 winners had finished no worse than 6th on their last start.
Mark Johnston & Andrew Balding have trained 2 winners in the last 10 years.
Weight: 8-12 - 9-7.
Rated: 87 - 104
One of my favourite horses in training which regular readers will know is What About Carlo, he heads the weights after an impressive success on Derby stepped up to this trip. He is now 6lbs higher which in truth is quite far even somewhat lenient considering the high regard in which he is held, good fast ground will be fine for him as he proved at Epsom & he must go well again. Mount Logan came good first time of asking this year at Goodwood sprinting away from some nice types, he has of course gone up since & this demands more on what we have seen of him but he remains with potential to be a bit better than a handicapper. Free Code steps up a further 2 furlongs in trip after staying on in The Britannia at Royal Ascot (a race that has provided the winners of this race twice in the last 10 years), he has stamina to prove for me & looks weighted up to the hilt. Torchlighter & Insaany represent Mark Johnston; Torchlighter is on his 7th start of the current campaign & duly won in decent style last time out, he has been raised 6lbs as a result so will need more but nobody knows where the ceiling of ability is with these Johnston horses, similar comments apply to stablemate Insaany who bounced back to win over course & distance last time out after a below par run at Ayr on soft ground previous to that he had rattled a quickfire double, he looks like he might just have a little bit more class than his stablemate & a further 5lb rise should keep him honest.
Stormadal has missed several engagements since a decent 3rd back in May, probably just has a little too much weight to be winning though.
Madeed ran really well in The Britannia finishing 2nd in the far side group, it was a big step up on his seasonal debut, the step up in trip should suit & he remains on a nice mark. Mange All will be feared & overbet as so many Haggas horses are when they step into handicap company after maiden wins, we learnt nothing new about him that day & he will need more in this company. Ventura Quest has been struggling in races of a similar class including when taking on his elders last time & is best watched for the time being. Randwick steps into handicap company after being well beat in a couple of maidens & a Listed race at Chester, initially allotted a mark of 90 he has been dropped to a much more feasible 85 although he has not shown to me that he is capable from that sort of mark. Our Gabrial has been competing at a lesser grade & despite winning last time he has too much on here, he also needs to find 38 lengths with Torchlighter on Sandown running.
Huge fan of What About Carlo but am more than happy to wait for him to run in pattern company rather than this handicap.
A useful 2yo fillies maiden featuring your usual quota of well bred animals is up next in won last year by Qawaseem. Certify won this in 2012 remaining unbeaten upto winning a Fillies Mile at the end of that season & Fantasia won this in 2008 (Won Prestige Group 3 / Nell Gwyn Group 3 / Sceptre Listed before heading to the US where she won a Grade 3 event at Woodbine)
Anastazia; has shown little so far & will be qualified for Nurseries after this.
Bombay Mix; is out of her depth on what she showed on her debut, another for nurseries down the line.
Dubai Breeze; was caught out wide at Newbury but stayed on well all the way to the line behind what could be a useful animal, I would have 7f would have better but should be involved nonetheless.
East Coast Lady; ran a huge race on her debut over this course & distance, will need more in this beter class maiden though.
Exceedingly; was very green & unfancied on debut so it was to her credit that she showed so much to just get past East Coast Lady to nab 2nd, will improve & will be hard to beat.
Gypsy Doll cost £85,000 at Tatts Book 2 last year, she is a half sister to top stayer Illustrious Blue & the useful sprinting filly Mullein.
Jillanar cost £95,000 at Tatts Book 2 last year, first foal, dam is a Another Dancer who was a pattern winner in France.
Lacing was out very early on & then not seen for 2 months, work to do.
Lady Of Dubai cost £450,000 at Tatts Book 1 last year, she a half sister to a runner. Her dam is by Head In The Clouds who was a Group 3 winner & is a full sister to St Leger winner / multiple pattern winner Millenary.
La Favourita; £40,000 at DBS, half sister to Twelve Strings.
Osaila will be a warm order here after a useful run in Albany at The Royal Meeting.
Sulaalaat £180,000 at Tatts Book 1 last year, half sister to Madeed. Dam is a daughter of Sumoto who has bred Summoner Group 1 / Compton Admiral Group 1 / Twlya Tharp who was Group placed & who is the dam of The Fugue.
Taaqah; encouraging debut behind a filly who has gone on to win in Listed company.
Taqneyya is a half sister to last year's winner Qawaaseem from same stable.
Umniyah is an 11th foal; sister to 7f-1m1f Flat (Group 3) / 2m hurdle winner Dubai Prince.
War Alert; surprisingly turned over on debut at Windsor, work to do here now as a result against some nicely bred types.
What A Party; extremely cheap yearling cost £1001 at Goffs, trainer did win this 2010 with a similar type.
A race to tape for future months.
A new race for the meeting is a Listed mile event for 3yo named in honour of the late great Sir Henry Cecil, it has some useful animals some of whom have interlocking form lines. Coulsty will struggle to give away 3lbs after a Listed win of 7f earlier in the year, he also has stamina to prove at a mile. Anjaal is best watched until showing some kind of form. God Willing has not been seen since a beaten drifting favourite on the AW at Kempton back in April in a race that has not worked out.
Parbold was knocked sideways in The Jersey so that run is best ignored, judged on his penultimate outing at Epsom he would be respected although stamina is a huge concern. Pretzel bolted up at Ayr last time having been previously been beaten by the excellent Muteela, well worth a go up in class. Sir Jack Layden has not been since a disappointing run in The Newmarket Stakes behind Barley Mow & is another best watched.
Table Rock got lost in the Britannia but bounced right back with a good win against his elders in a Premier handicap at the Curragh a couple of weeks ago, respected upped in grade. Windfast ran a huge race at Royal Ascot in The Jersey finishing 4th, he should stay fine & back in grade he must go close. Zarwaan will most likely be favourite after 3 excellent runs so far this season, he got going far too late in the Haydock mud & then got held up in traffic before a fast finishing 5th in The Britannia last time out. He should be up to the class & should prove very hard to beat.
Not a race I will be getting involved in.
Not a race I will be getting involved in.
@fttfracing
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