Hello once more & welcome along to my blog, The Betfred Cambridgeshire has been one of my favourite races for some time now as if memory serves it was one of the first race meetings that I attended where I truly remembered the excitement of watching live horses racing for the first time, way back in 1989 when Rambo's Hall won his first Cambridgeshire, I was 7 at the time & I actually picked him out of the paddock so that was an added bonus.
I think the spectacle of over 30 horses charging in a straight line down the Rowley Mile is a fascinating spectacle where luck & class meet head on.
Its not just Rambo's Hall's first win in 1989 that sticks in my memory there have been so many good horses win over the years; Rambo's won a 2nd Cambridgeshire in 1992, the top class Halling dominated his field in 1994 & a year later in 1995 on a personal note the brilliant Cap Juluca made all under a welter burden of 9-10 (a feat that has yet to bettered).
In 1997 one of the best gambles in living memory came off when Pasternak scooted home for the late Graham Rock, in 2000 the classy Katy Nowaitee defied a near 6 month absence to win in great style while in 2004 Spanish Don caused a huge shock by beliing odds of 100/1 to come home in first place.
In recent times we have seen top class performances from future pattern performers Blue Monday (2005), Formal Decree (2006) & the well fancied Piperdreamer in 2007.
Just behind Cap Juluca in terms of my favourite Cambridgeshire is 2009 winner Supaseus made all up against the far side rail under a fine ride from Travis Block to defy all comers.
Onto the action & the card opens 7f fillies nursery;
Feeling Easy has been running all season including when a fast finishing 4th last time at Doncaster in a useful nursery, this is now a less competitive race than it looked at the 5 day stage so she has a chance. Sandy Cay also has a mark of 81 for a length victory in a Kempton maiden, she is also bred to be smart being a half sister to the useful Rob Roy. Open to plenty of improvement like the two aforementioned fillies.
Assault On Rome has tried & failed 6 times to add to her maiden win but is just struggling from her mark. Runner Runner won her maiden on Wolverhampton's new Tapeta surface, it was a weak race in comparison to this & she'll need more from her mark.
Gregoria appeared to be beaten fair & square of this mark in that Doncaster nursery last time finishing behind Feeling Easy. Little Lady Katie was helped by a slightly lower mark when 3rd in the Doncaster nursery that frames this race, previously she had been beaten by Gregoria from a mark of 74 & she now races off 76, work to do but cannot completely rule out. Crystal Malt had been struggling in maidens running well admittedly but seemingly always finishing one better before showing nothing in a maiden at Ascot last time, opening mark looks a bit harsh & will need all of Cam Hardie's 5lb claim to get involved here. Rosalie Bonheur has not been harshly treated on the back of an impressive success in a Class 5 nursery at Salisbury last time, she travelled well & put the race to bed quickly off 68 so a mark of 73 could be lenient. Hawkin's opening mark demands more than she has shown so far, she looked like a non stayer at 7f last time after looking one paced at 6f the time before.
Conjuring enjoyed the drop back to 5.5f at Bath after showing progression in a couple of AW maidens, this demands a whole lot more.
Maybe Now Baby has a nice looking mark after her 3 maiden runs which have been as a whole progressive, her last run suggested that a step up to 7f would be perfect.
Shar Shar has plenty to do in this class after her last 2 runs in weak looking Tapeta maidens at Wolverhampton. Tagtale won off 52 in a poor Class 6 nursery last time, she looks set to struggle back up in class here.
Assault On Rome has tried & failed 6 times to add to her maiden win but is just struggling from her mark. Runner Runner won her maiden on Wolverhampton's new Tapeta surface, it was a weak race in comparison to this & she'll need more from her mark.
Gregoria appeared to be beaten fair & square of this mark in that Doncaster nursery last time finishing behind Feeling Easy. Little Lady Katie was helped by a slightly lower mark when 3rd in the Doncaster nursery that frames this race, previously she had been beaten by Gregoria from a mark of 74 & she now races off 76, work to do but cannot completely rule out. Crystal Malt had been struggling in maidens running well admittedly but seemingly always finishing one better before showing nothing in a maiden at Ascot last time, opening mark looks a bit harsh & will need all of Cam Hardie's 5lb claim to get involved here. Rosalie Bonheur has not been harshly treated on the back of an impressive success in a Class 5 nursery at Salisbury last time, she travelled well & put the race to bed quickly off 68 so a mark of 73 could be lenient. Hawkin's opening mark demands more than she has shown so far, she looked like a non stayer at 7f last time after looking one paced at 6f the time before.
Conjuring enjoyed the drop back to 5.5f at Bath after showing progression in a couple of AW maidens, this demands a whole lot more.
Maybe Now Baby has a nice looking mark after her 3 maiden runs which have been as a whole progressive, her last run suggested that a step up to 7f would be perfect.
Shar Shar has plenty to do in this class after her last 2 runs in weak looking Tapeta maidens at Wolverhampton. Tagtale won off 52 in a poor Class 6 nursery last time, she looks set to struggle back up in class here.
Not a race I can see a bet in.
Group race action begins with The Royal Lodge, it looks slightly below par from recent seasons but there could well be a real improver lurking.
Elm Park must hold strong claims having finished 3rd on debut to the decidedly useful Latharnach he duly won his maiden on soft ground at Newbury winning easily before stepping up to Listed company in The Stonehenge at Salisbury when again making all to win in impressive style once more, the 2nd may not be the best form guide but he did easily dispose of Tupi (2nd to Highland Reel in a Group 2) & the well touted Winter's Moon, looks at least up to this class.
Lord Ben Stack is a big unit who was behind Medrano & Salateen (re-oppose today) on debut at Haydock where he showed promise, he duly won at the Lancashire course next time out when making all, worth a go in this grade.
Medrano was over 6 lengths clear of Lord Ben Stack (LBS's debut) & has since gone on to be well beaten by Celestial Path in a Listed event at Haydock, looks set to struggle here. Salateen has been progressive winning well from the front in an ordinary nursery at Doncaster last time, he had previously run well on ground faster than ideal at York in the Acomb, Medrano only just had his measure when they met in a maiden at Haydock earlier in the year & Salateen looks to have progressed more in the meantime. Not far of the standard needed to win this.
Misterioso improved past the now 78 rated Harlequin Striker from his debut running to win comfortably on his next start at Salisbury, this is much tougher but is open to improvement & this race could well be set up for a finisher.
Nafaqa brings the best form into the race having won a good Listed race from a nice bunch at Doncaster last time beating Toocoolforchool (bolted up in last Saturday's Mill Reef Group 2). He is a bonny little horse who clearly has an attitude as well as an engine, he almost pulled himself up slightly veering away from his riders urgings last time at Doncaster which could still be down to inexperience. Its a stiff mile her at Newmarket & at this stage in his career it might be far enough for him, in fact it may well prove his optimum distance. Despite all that he is the one to beat on form.
Medrano was over 6 lengths clear of Lord Ben Stack (LBS's debut) & has since gone on to be well beaten by Celestial Path in a Listed event at Haydock, looks set to struggle here. Salateen has been progressive winning well from the front in an ordinary nursery at Doncaster last time, he had previously run well on ground faster than ideal at York in the Acomb, Medrano only just had his measure when they met in a maiden at Haydock earlier in the year & Salateen looks to have progressed more in the meantime. Not far of the standard needed to win this.
Misterioso improved past the now 78 rated Harlequin Striker from his debut running to win comfortably on his next start at Salisbury, this is much tougher but is open to improvement & this race could well be set up for a finisher.
Nafaqa brings the best form into the race having won a good Listed race from a nice bunch at Doncaster last time beating Toocoolforchool (bolted up in last Saturday's Mill Reef Group 2). He is a bonny little horse who clearly has an attitude as well as an engine, he almost pulled himself up slightly veering away from his riders urgings last time at Doncaster which could still be down to inexperience. Its a stiff mile her at Newmarket & at this stage in his career it might be far enough for him, in fact it may well prove his optimum distance. Despite all that he is the one to beat on form.
Should really be between Nafaqa (2nd) & Elm Park (WON) but not a race I would want to get involved with.
The Cheveley Park like the previous race is not as hot as in previous seasons as most seem to think Tiggy Wiggy is unbeatable but for me she has had a very long season & its asking a huge amount of her to still be so far ahead of her rivals towards the end of September, she was of course impressive last time but I would be confident had a race fit Cursory Glance taken her on the outcome would have been different.
Anthem Alexander was 3rd to Tiggy Wiggy last time with seemingly no excuses but perhaps fitness was her issue too on her first try at 6f & she is entitled to have some improvement after just 4 starts. My main worry is the trip though as she does look very speedy & this is a stiff 6f.
Arabian Queen is not discounted for a place with penalties null & voided in Group 1's, she has shown smart form already this year & can be forgiven her run last time under her penalty as she is quite small but in truth I cannot see how she can finish in front of High Celebrity this time.
High Celebrity herself is a big girl who was all at sea on her first foray in the UK when missing the break & not settling off the sluggish gallop set by Arabian Queen, when push came to shove she struggled to make up the ground on the softer going. She came out in France a couple of weeks ago & won a Group 3 easily, big player here.
Tendu is a full sister to Gimcrack Stakes winner & top first season sire Showcasing, she improved dramatically from her Newbury debut to win by 5 lengths on Kempton's AW surface travelling like a very classy filly. Huge step up here but her trainer does not risk them if they are not up to it, respected.
Terror won an ordinary Warwick maiden on good to soft ground in a slow time by 10 lengths on her debut, like Tendu she could be anything but I do wonder if the Qatar operation are just running for the sake of it as they haven't got anything else good enough.
Explosive Lady represents the in form Karl Burke stable, she has useful if not top class form to her name but should not be written off as her last run was a tremendous effort in a big field sales race at The Curragh against the boys just like the time before finishing 3rd in The Ripon Champion 2yo Trophy. On her last start against her own sex she was slightly unlucky when 3rd to Osaila at Ascot after travelling well, could well run into a place & if the big fancies don't perform she could find herself a Group 1 winner.
Zuhoor Baynoona has not been seen since favourite to beat Tiggy Wiggy & co in a Listed race at York way back in May so presumably she has training problems since, this is a tough race to come back in but is clearly held in high regard.
Tongue Twista would be a shock winner or even a place getter, her form is well below what's required & she has appeared limited each time she has run at pattern or Listed level. Stablemate Amaze Me has even less chance of getting involved after just 2 down the field starts so far.
High Celebrity (3rd) is a huge price at 9/2 generally available
So to the main event of the day & one of the big betting handicaps of the whole season with 35 runners spread right across the Rowley Mile. The draw has been fair in recent years with high & low having 4 winners apiece indeed last year's 1st & 2nd were drawn on opposite sides of the track.
Last year's winner Educate attempts to become the first horse since Baronet in '79 / '80 to win the great handicap 2 years in succession, he carries 9-10 instead of last year's 9-9 & arrives in a less progressive vein of form overall so he is up against it.
Tenor (5th) has been another John Ryan success story of 2014 & carries an extra 7lbs here due to a recent Listed success although young Joe Doyle's 5lb claim offset's that rise somewhat, most of his wins have come in relatively small fields compared to this so it will be tougher to dominate them but not impossible.
The Rectifier was 19th from a mark of 96 last year, he now races from a mark of 106 so has progressed in the interim but in recent starts has struggled upped in grade, lost out in a 3 way finish at Bath recently to Tenor but has a pull in the weights with his talented young jockey's 7lb claim a bonus, will do well though to better last year.
Energia Davos struggled with a rise in the weights last weekend after a win previously, he will never have raced in a packed field such as this so it will be a huge culture shock. Gabrial's Kaka has been running well all season but has failed to add to his Spring Cup success off a mark 0f 95, handicapper does appear to have him but not ruled out as he will love the hustle & bustle that this race provides.
Indian Chief was expected to be one of Ballydoyle's best 3yo's last year but after a 3rd in the Dante he failed to go on & now finds himself racing for the first time in over a year for Dandy Nicholls in a handicap, mark is not insurmountable if any ability remains but that is the big if?
Queensbury Rules had been a long term ante post favourite for this race last year but could only manage 20th, took him an age to win this year & not certain to repeat that of his current mark. Quick Wit is a pretty decent old stick who goes well in handicap's around Meydan & here at Newmarket, not impossibly weighted on his very best form & does perform best fresh. Boomshackerlacker is a useful handicapper who has been highly tried & as a result always carries more than he is capable of handling, his very best form is on softer ground. Spa's Dancer would love this to be at his beloved Sandown & a few pounds lower, he was 19th off a mark of 93 in this race 2 years ago.
Balty Boys has maintained a good level of form this season but I would not read too much into his last run as it was a strangely run affair with many of the better fancied horses disappointing, needs a career best to figure here.
Tres Coronas would prefer a bit softer going & is a few pounds too high at present. Pacific Heights is another currently in the handicapper's grip & would need a bit of rain to fall. The 2012 winner Bronze Angel (WON) attempts to do what Rambo's Hall did & win back his Cambridgeshire crown, with one of the apprentice finds of the year Louis Steward's 5lb claim he is very close to that winning mark which makes him very interesting & likely to be tipped up in many places but for me I do wonder if he is still good enough to exploit it after all he was only 23rd last year.
Velox (2nd DHT) has been well talked in recent days & its easy to see why, he is generally progressive with young Cam Hardie being reunited with him after their win at Sandown in the summer. He has looked held by his current mark on his last 2 starts so the claim will have to make all the difference if he is to win.
Niceofyoutotellme (2nd DHT) has clearly been laid out for this ever since his win in course & distance handicap on 1000 Guineas day, his last 2 runs have yielded limited success & he has not been seen since July which is a positive as his trainer has stated he is best fresh, can quite easily see him being the pricewise horse.
Ingleby Angel again struggled behind several of these at Doncaster last time, he has been running as if in need of some respite from the handicapper who has been slow to relent. Big Johnny D is up 4lbs in a better race to a mark which he has been competitive off before although he must prove his stamina as he has looked a better horse since being dropped in trip.
Bartack has improved all season & has a pull with Big Johnny D on their latest running, type at a big price to get involved.
Bancnuanaheireann won last year's Silver Cambridgeshire carrying a big weight impressively, its safe to say given how he's run since that this has been his season long target, on a fair mark if a couple of pounds higher than you'd ideally like but he does enjoy these big handicaps & can easily hit the frame at a price.
Cornrow is now favourite after Air Pilot missed the cut & its easy to see why a progressive lightly raced horse from the John Gosden stable who ran his best race last time in a top handicap over a trip that was too short for him, off the same mark here over just shy of 10 furlongs what's not to like.
Dance And Dance should have & could have won so many more races if he'd felt like it but he does love getting himself in tight spots which makes him look unlucky when in truth he isn't, well weighted as ever but I can only see him finishing just on the fringes of the front 5 places like last year.
Homage didn't show enough to be considered here last time, he has yet to show that he can cope with his mark of 94 but on the plus side is still lightly raced.
Genius Boy ran up a sequence at lesser tracks earlier in the summer with some strong displays, massively outclassed in Group 3 company the time before last & hated the heavy ground at Chepstow on his last start, young Kieran Shoemark's 7lb claim is a help but has it to prove in this class. Maverick Wave is another lightly raced contender from the John Gosden stable but looks harshly treated compared to his more progressive stablemate.
Yeager was thought good enough to run in last year's Secretariat Stakes Grade 1 in which he had little success, big fields so far have proved hard for him & he has plenty on his plate. Chancery is a staple in these big field handicaps & is often well touted up but has so far always missed the mark by quite some way, trip would appear to be on the short side as well. I had expected Forgotten Hero to be heading down more of a November Handicap route as he is a strong stayer at 12 furlongs so I would be concerned that 9 furlongs on fast ground may find him out in this much better race.
Extremity a progressive 3yo has made the cut which his upwardly mobile trainer had hoped, even his trainer did not expect earlier in the week, by far his toughest test to date up a further 4lbs for a small field success at Thirsk last time. Can see him being involved but more for a minor placing than the win after a hard season.
Spirit Of The Law was seemingly exposed as not up to this grade last week at Newbury in the best trial for this race at Newbury but that was on rain softened ground which is not his bag & he has always struck me as the type to be suited by this race so he could easily outrun his massive odds. Sound Advice has had a good season at a lower level but looks set to struggle here. Buckstay (4th) could be interesting for the places at bigger odds as well, he gave 10lbs to Extremity for a neck beating at Goodwood & has since run well in a good handicap at Kempton, probably not as progressive as his younger rival but none the less has a squeak. God WIlling ran his best race for some last week in a small field conditions event at Newbury, he did look at one stage if he would trouble last year's Cambridgeshire runner up Code Of Honor but as it panned out the winner was just toying with him. Plenty on his plate back in a handicap now. Tiger's Tale (6th) beat Buckstay with a game win from close to the pace the front at Kempton last time, it was a career best effort but this demands a whole lot more of him.
Most would think I'm nuts at the current odds but am already on Cornrow (13th) at fancy prices & in all honesty think he has an outstanding chance.
For me its all about how I would price the race up & even though in a 35 runner field 7/1 Betfred is short for most people, I would personally have him shorter so to me there is still mileage in his current price so he will do for me.
Some well bred newcomers make up the fields in both division of the 7f fillies maidens so like yesterday's maiden it will be well worth Sky+ them or if you have RacingUK you can enjoy the endless re-runs;
Division 1:
Bella Lulu (Iffraaj x Loulwa) Half sister to the speedy Listed winner Justineo.
Entertainment (Halling x Opera Comique) Half sister to Group 2 winner Debussy.
Fridge Kid (Kheleyf x Snow Shoes) Limited promise in 2 starts to date.
Jazzi Top (Danehill Dancer x Zee Zee Top) Half sister to dual Group 1 winner Izzi Top.
Justice Belle (Montjeu x Metaphor) £30,000 Tatts Book 2 2013. Half sister to Introvert Listed winner.
Kawaii (Myboycharlie x Aliena) Half sister to Audacity of Hope (Group 3 placed).
Light Glass (Lope De Vega x Truth Beauty) £91,266 Arqana Yearling 2013. From the family of Street Cry & Shamardal.
Lipstickandpowder (Mastercraftsman x Raphimix) Limited promise on debut, will need more time.
Pamona (Duke Of Marmalade x Palanca) £100,140 Goffs Orby Yearling 2013. Half sister to Prianca (Listed winner).
Quite Smart (Arcano x Lyca Ballerina) Promise in both starts well beaten behind Terror (Runs in Cheveley Park) last time.
Skip And Jump (Elusive Quality x Skip A Dare) £87,000 Craven Breeze Up 2014. Half sister to 3 winners in the US including a stakes performer.
Taqneyya (Raven's Pass x Misdaqeya) Big improvement from first to second start but still only a limited 2nd in a Chepstow maiden.
Division 2:
Alfajer (Mount Nelson x Sakhee's Song) Dam group placed & half sister to Group placed Taayel.
Brackan Brae (Champs Elysee x Azure Mist) Limited appeal of pedigree.
Colorada (Lope De Vega x Isabella Glyn) £35,000 Tatts Book 2 2013. From the family of Trumbaka (Group 3 winner in France).
Hana Lina (Oasis Dream x Queen's Logic) Half sister to Lady Of The Desert (Dual Group 2 winner 2yo & 3yo at sprint distances). Dam Champion 2yo Filly in Europe 2001.
Kip (Rip Van Winkle x Catopuma) First foal, dam unraced from the family of Pounced (Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Grade 2 & 2nd in Jean Luc Lagardere Group 1).
Lady Correspondent (War Front x Fanzine) Dam unraced, Full sister to Mizzen Mast.
Luv U (Royal Applause x Love Roi) Some promise in north starts better in handicaps after this run.
Mrs Eve (Bahamian Bounty x Catbells) Well beaten on debut & best watched.
Resolve (Dutch Art x Crooked Wood) £18,000 Tatts Book 2 2013. Half sister to 2 winners. From the family of Crokadore Grade 2 winner in the US.
Shasag (Arcano x Popolo) Half sister to 1 winner. From the family of Al Qasi Group 3 winning sprinter.
Twitch (Azamour x Blinking) £30,000 Tatts Book 2 2013. Dam Full sister to Comic Strip Champion Older Horse in Hong Kong 2006-2007 & again in 2008-2009, Group 1 winner
twice.
I have no clue on the 7f handicap so will be staying well away from it.
The last race on the card would warrant be at an earlier time slot at other meetings but has posted at 6:05 so dusk will be on the horizon as the runners head out to the 1m4f start. Min Alemarat was an intended St Leger runner until being pulled out due to quick ground, it will be quicker here at Newmarket so his participation is again a worry. His rating of 95 seems more than harsh given he has only won a soft ground maiden by 7 lengths from a horse who patently didn't handle the ground & has since been well beaten off 91. Famous Kid has had just 4 starts & looks favourably treated off 91 on the back of a decent win at Kempton, his earlier form marked him out as a promising type so is respected with stable going well. Gothic has not quite gone on as I hoped he would this season but at least ran with real promise upped to this trip at Ascot last time when not getting the best of runs & finishing with a rattle, will enjoy Newmarket better so he should also be capable of getting involved from a mark of 91.
Captain Morley disappointed badly at York last time either through lack of stamina or not being able to cope with his mark. High Church was pulled out at Newbury last Friday due to the overnight rain, he had previously won in decent style & is progressive but will need to be from a 9lb higher mark here in a much better race than he would have contested last week. Donny Rover gained another win for the season on soft ground last time in gritty style, he will need more again off a career high mark but is a likeable type. Farquhar was well beaten behind his elders last time in the Mallard but dropped a pound back against his own age group he would have a place chance on his best form. Saarrem was another to be pulled out at Newbury in High Church's intended race due to ground, he has looked a resolute galloper so far & a mark of 87 demands plenty. Almashooqa tries a handicap for the 2nd time off a mark of 87 (86 last time), she had a dose of seconditis at trips between 9f to 10f looking one paced on every start so its surprising she is only just stepping up to 12f here, open to improvement now stepping up but this is a tough race. Nabatean ran well upped to this trip on his first handicap start at Ascot behind Battersea back in July although it did look as if his opening mark of 85 may have been a bit beyond him, interesting he's been given time off since then & could still improve after a short break. Soviet Courage beat an extremely well bred but slow looking animal hollow by 13 lengths to win his maiden last time, it was a very weak race on the whole & on previous maiden form a mark of 83 looks a tad high.
A decent race & if the price is right I will most likely back Gothic.
Arabian Queen is not discounted for a place with penalties null & voided in Group 1's, she has shown smart form already this year & can be forgiven her run last time under her penalty as she is quite small but in truth I cannot see how she can finish in front of High Celebrity this time.
High Celebrity herself is a big girl who was all at sea on her first foray in the UK when missing the break & not settling off the sluggish gallop set by Arabian Queen, when push came to shove she struggled to make up the ground on the softer going. She came out in France a couple of weeks ago & won a Group 3 easily, big player here.
Tendu is a full sister to Gimcrack Stakes winner & top first season sire Showcasing, she improved dramatically from her Newbury debut to win by 5 lengths on Kempton's AW surface travelling like a very classy filly. Huge step up here but her trainer does not risk them if they are not up to it, respected.
Terror won an ordinary Warwick maiden on good to soft ground in a slow time by 10 lengths on her debut, like Tendu she could be anything but I do wonder if the Qatar operation are just running for the sake of it as they haven't got anything else good enough.
Explosive Lady represents the in form Karl Burke stable, she has useful if not top class form to her name but should not be written off as her last run was a tremendous effort in a big field sales race at The Curragh against the boys just like the time before finishing 3rd in The Ripon Champion 2yo Trophy. On her last start against her own sex she was slightly unlucky when 3rd to Osaila at Ascot after travelling well, could well run into a place & if the big fancies don't perform she could find herself a Group 1 winner.
Zuhoor Baynoona has not been seen since favourite to beat Tiggy Wiggy & co in a Listed race at York way back in May so presumably she has training problems since, this is a tough race to come back in but is clearly held in high regard.
Tongue Twista would be a shock winner or even a place getter, her form is well below what's required & she has appeared limited each time she has run at pattern or Listed level. Stablemate Amaze Me has even less chance of getting involved after just 2 down the field starts so far.
High Celebrity (3rd) is a huge price at 9/2 generally available
So to the main event of the day & one of the big betting handicaps of the whole season with 35 runners spread right across the Rowley Mile. The draw has been fair in recent years with high & low having 4 winners apiece indeed last year's 1st & 2nd were drawn on opposite sides of the track.
Last year's winner Educate attempts to become the first horse since Baronet in '79 / '80 to win the great handicap 2 years in succession, he carries 9-10 instead of last year's 9-9 & arrives in a less progressive vein of form overall so he is up against it.
Tenor (5th) has been another John Ryan success story of 2014 & carries an extra 7lbs here due to a recent Listed success although young Joe Doyle's 5lb claim offset's that rise somewhat, most of his wins have come in relatively small fields compared to this so it will be tougher to dominate them but not impossible.
The Rectifier was 19th from a mark of 96 last year, he now races from a mark of 106 so has progressed in the interim but in recent starts has struggled upped in grade, lost out in a 3 way finish at Bath recently to Tenor but has a pull in the weights with his talented young jockey's 7lb claim a bonus, will do well though to better last year.
Energia Davos struggled with a rise in the weights last weekend after a win previously, he will never have raced in a packed field such as this so it will be a huge culture shock. Gabrial's Kaka has been running well all season but has failed to add to his Spring Cup success off a mark 0f 95, handicapper does appear to have him but not ruled out as he will love the hustle & bustle that this race provides.
Indian Chief was expected to be one of Ballydoyle's best 3yo's last year but after a 3rd in the Dante he failed to go on & now finds himself racing for the first time in over a year for Dandy Nicholls in a handicap, mark is not insurmountable if any ability remains but that is the big if?
Queensbury Rules had been a long term ante post favourite for this race last year but could only manage 20th, took him an age to win this year & not certain to repeat that of his current mark. Quick Wit is a pretty decent old stick who goes well in handicap's around Meydan & here at Newmarket, not impossibly weighted on his very best form & does perform best fresh. Boomshackerlacker is a useful handicapper who has been highly tried & as a result always carries more than he is capable of handling, his very best form is on softer ground. Spa's Dancer would love this to be at his beloved Sandown & a few pounds lower, he was 19th off a mark of 93 in this race 2 years ago.
Balty Boys has maintained a good level of form this season but I would not read too much into his last run as it was a strangely run affair with many of the better fancied horses disappointing, needs a career best to figure here.
Tres Coronas would prefer a bit softer going & is a few pounds too high at present. Pacific Heights is another currently in the handicapper's grip & would need a bit of rain to fall. The 2012 winner Bronze Angel (WON) attempts to do what Rambo's Hall did & win back his Cambridgeshire crown, with one of the apprentice finds of the year Louis Steward's 5lb claim he is very close to that winning mark which makes him very interesting & likely to be tipped up in many places but for me I do wonder if he is still good enough to exploit it after all he was only 23rd last year.
Velox (2nd DHT) has been well talked in recent days & its easy to see why, he is generally progressive with young Cam Hardie being reunited with him after their win at Sandown in the summer. He has looked held by his current mark on his last 2 starts so the claim will have to make all the difference if he is to win.
Niceofyoutotellme (2nd DHT) has clearly been laid out for this ever since his win in course & distance handicap on 1000 Guineas day, his last 2 runs have yielded limited success & he has not been seen since July which is a positive as his trainer has stated he is best fresh, can quite easily see him being the pricewise horse.
Ingleby Angel again struggled behind several of these at Doncaster last time, he has been running as if in need of some respite from the handicapper who has been slow to relent. Big Johnny D is up 4lbs in a better race to a mark which he has been competitive off before although he must prove his stamina as he has looked a better horse since being dropped in trip.
Bartack has improved all season & has a pull with Big Johnny D on their latest running, type at a big price to get involved.
Bancnuanaheireann won last year's Silver Cambridgeshire carrying a big weight impressively, its safe to say given how he's run since that this has been his season long target, on a fair mark if a couple of pounds higher than you'd ideally like but he does enjoy these big handicaps & can easily hit the frame at a price.
Cornrow is now favourite after Air Pilot missed the cut & its easy to see why a progressive lightly raced horse from the John Gosden stable who ran his best race last time in a top handicap over a trip that was too short for him, off the same mark here over just shy of 10 furlongs what's not to like.
Dance And Dance should have & could have won so many more races if he'd felt like it but he does love getting himself in tight spots which makes him look unlucky when in truth he isn't, well weighted as ever but I can only see him finishing just on the fringes of the front 5 places like last year.
Homage didn't show enough to be considered here last time, he has yet to show that he can cope with his mark of 94 but on the plus side is still lightly raced.
Genius Boy ran up a sequence at lesser tracks earlier in the summer with some strong displays, massively outclassed in Group 3 company the time before last & hated the heavy ground at Chepstow on his last start, young Kieran Shoemark's 7lb claim is a help but has it to prove in this class. Maverick Wave is another lightly raced contender from the John Gosden stable but looks harshly treated compared to his more progressive stablemate.
Yeager was thought good enough to run in last year's Secretariat Stakes Grade 1 in which he had little success, big fields so far have proved hard for him & he has plenty on his plate. Chancery is a staple in these big field handicaps & is often well touted up but has so far always missed the mark by quite some way, trip would appear to be on the short side as well. I had expected Forgotten Hero to be heading down more of a November Handicap route as he is a strong stayer at 12 furlongs so I would be concerned that 9 furlongs on fast ground may find him out in this much better race.
Extremity a progressive 3yo has made the cut which his upwardly mobile trainer had hoped, even his trainer did not expect earlier in the week, by far his toughest test to date up a further 4lbs for a small field success at Thirsk last time. Can see him being involved but more for a minor placing than the win after a hard season.
Spirit Of The Law was seemingly exposed as not up to this grade last week at Newbury in the best trial for this race at Newbury but that was on rain softened ground which is not his bag & he has always struck me as the type to be suited by this race so he could easily outrun his massive odds. Sound Advice has had a good season at a lower level but looks set to struggle here. Buckstay (4th) could be interesting for the places at bigger odds as well, he gave 10lbs to Extremity for a neck beating at Goodwood & has since run well in a good handicap at Kempton, probably not as progressive as his younger rival but none the less has a squeak. God WIlling ran his best race for some last week in a small field conditions event at Newbury, he did look at one stage if he would trouble last year's Cambridgeshire runner up Code Of Honor but as it panned out the winner was just toying with him. Plenty on his plate back in a handicap now. Tiger's Tale (6th) beat Buckstay with a game win from close to the pace the front at Kempton last time, it was a career best effort but this demands a whole lot more of him.
Most would think I'm nuts at the current odds but am already on Cornrow (13th) at fancy prices & in all honesty think he has an outstanding chance.
For me its all about how I would price the race up & even though in a 35 runner field 7/1 Betfred is short for most people, I would personally have him shorter so to me there is still mileage in his current price so he will do for me.
Some well bred newcomers make up the fields in both division of the 7f fillies maidens so like yesterday's maiden it will be well worth Sky+ them or if you have RacingUK you can enjoy the endless re-runs;
Division 1:
Bella Lulu (Iffraaj x Loulwa) Half sister to the speedy Listed winner Justineo.
Entertainment (Halling x Opera Comique) Half sister to Group 2 winner Debussy.
Fridge Kid (Kheleyf x Snow Shoes) Limited promise in 2 starts to date.
Jazzi Top (Danehill Dancer x Zee Zee Top) Half sister to dual Group 1 winner Izzi Top.
Justice Belle (Montjeu x Metaphor) £30,000 Tatts Book 2 2013. Half sister to Introvert Listed winner.
Kawaii (Myboycharlie x Aliena) Half sister to Audacity of Hope (Group 3 placed).
Light Glass (Lope De Vega x Truth Beauty) £91,266 Arqana Yearling 2013. From the family of Street Cry & Shamardal.
Lipstickandpowder (Mastercraftsman x Raphimix) Limited promise on debut, will need more time.
Pamona (Duke Of Marmalade x Palanca) £100,140 Goffs Orby Yearling 2013. Half sister to Prianca (Listed winner).
Quite Smart (Arcano x Lyca Ballerina) Promise in both starts well beaten behind Terror (Runs in Cheveley Park) last time.
Skip And Jump (Elusive Quality x Skip A Dare) £87,000 Craven Breeze Up 2014. Half sister to 3 winners in the US including a stakes performer.
Taqneyya (Raven's Pass x Misdaqeya) Big improvement from first to second start but still only a limited 2nd in a Chepstow maiden.
Division 2:
Alfajer (Mount Nelson x Sakhee's Song) Dam group placed & half sister to Group placed Taayel.
Brackan Brae (Champs Elysee x Azure Mist) Limited appeal of pedigree.
Colorada (Lope De Vega x Isabella Glyn) £35,000 Tatts Book 2 2013. From the family of Trumbaka (Group 3 winner in France).
Hana Lina (Oasis Dream x Queen's Logic) Half sister to Lady Of The Desert (Dual Group 2 winner 2yo & 3yo at sprint distances). Dam Champion 2yo Filly in Europe 2001.
Kip (Rip Van Winkle x Catopuma) First foal, dam unraced from the family of Pounced (Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Grade 2 & 2nd in Jean Luc Lagardere Group 1).
Lady Correspondent (War Front x Fanzine) Dam unraced, Full sister to Mizzen Mast.
Luv U (Royal Applause x Love Roi) Some promise in north starts better in handicaps after this run.
Mrs Eve (Bahamian Bounty x Catbells) Well beaten on debut & best watched.
Resolve (Dutch Art x Crooked Wood) £18,000 Tatts Book 2 2013. Half sister to 2 winners. From the family of Crokadore Grade 2 winner in the US.
Shasag (Arcano x Popolo) Half sister to 1 winner. From the family of Al Qasi Group 3 winning sprinter.
Twitch (Azamour x Blinking) £30,000 Tatts Book 2 2013. Dam Full sister to Comic Strip Champion Older Horse in Hong Kong 2006-2007 & again in 2008-2009, Group 1 winner
twice.
I have no clue on the 7f handicap so will be staying well away from it.
The last race on the card would warrant be at an earlier time slot at other meetings but has posted at 6:05 so dusk will be on the horizon as the runners head out to the 1m4f start. Min Alemarat was an intended St Leger runner until being pulled out due to quick ground, it will be quicker here at Newmarket so his participation is again a worry. His rating of 95 seems more than harsh given he has only won a soft ground maiden by 7 lengths from a horse who patently didn't handle the ground & has since been well beaten off 91. Famous Kid has had just 4 starts & looks favourably treated off 91 on the back of a decent win at Kempton, his earlier form marked him out as a promising type so is respected with stable going well. Gothic has not quite gone on as I hoped he would this season but at least ran with real promise upped to this trip at Ascot last time when not getting the best of runs & finishing with a rattle, will enjoy Newmarket better so he should also be capable of getting involved from a mark of 91.
Captain Morley disappointed badly at York last time either through lack of stamina or not being able to cope with his mark. High Church was pulled out at Newbury last Friday due to the overnight rain, he had previously won in decent style & is progressive but will need to be from a 9lb higher mark here in a much better race than he would have contested last week. Donny Rover gained another win for the season on soft ground last time in gritty style, he will need more again off a career high mark but is a likeable type. Farquhar was well beaten behind his elders last time in the Mallard but dropped a pound back against his own age group he would have a place chance on his best form. Saarrem was another to be pulled out at Newbury in High Church's intended race due to ground, he has looked a resolute galloper so far & a mark of 87 demands plenty. Almashooqa tries a handicap for the 2nd time off a mark of 87 (86 last time), she had a dose of seconditis at trips between 9f to 10f looking one paced on every start so its surprising she is only just stepping up to 12f here, open to improvement now stepping up but this is a tough race. Nabatean ran well upped to this trip on his first handicap start at Ascot behind Battersea back in July although it did look as if his opening mark of 85 may have been a bit beyond him, interesting he's been given time off since then & could still improve after a short break. Soviet Courage beat an extremely well bred but slow looking animal hollow by 13 lengths to win his maiden last time, it was a very weak race on the whole & on previous maiden form a mark of 83 looks a tad high.
A decent race & if the price is right I will most likely back Gothic.
@fttfracing
No comments:
Post a Comment