Hello all & welcome along to this weekends blog, quite an eventful week for me on a personal note so the Horse Racing has taken a back seat not that it was the most wonderful weeks sport standout performances have been 3rd reserve White Star Line's annihilation of a good looking field in the Kerry National at Listowel, staying handicaps are tricky enough with all the declared runners let alone taking reserves into account but in fairness it seems to be a good system & works well in Ireland. I was quite taken by the run of Galway Plate winner Carlingford Lough off 12lbs higher for that win & in very testing ground that was not in his favour, he is working his way up to being competitive in the big field Cheltenham handicaps that are looming.
Another race that stood out for me this week again at Listowel was the novice chase ran on Thursday won in grand fashion by Owega Star who jumped superb out of the bad ground he looks one to note in good races when the ground is very testing. Also worth noting is Clonbannan Lad who looks to have really developed, he jumped novicey on the whole but made an eyecatching move 4 from home really looming up on the shoulders of Owega Star (below) before lack of a recent run told, he will be better for that.
On to the weekends action with the feature taking plus on the west coast of Scotland at Ayr Racecourse; The Ayr Gold Cup is the richest sprint handicap in the world & for me has been a fairly happy hunting ground having has 4 winners & 5 placed horses in the last 10 years. This year's race is dominated by Jack Dexter who took all before him last year as he rose through the ranks & this year he continued his improvement finishing 4th on unsuitable ground in The Kings Stand then going on to win a Group 3 at Newcastle. However he has some huge stats to overcome as only 1 favourite & 2 top weight's have won since 1980 (Coastal Bluff in 1996 & Advanced in 2007). So the question is can Jack Dexter defy this? For me the answer is No...mainly because I don't believe he's as good as for starters Coastal Bluff or some of the other good horses that have tried to carry top weight & failed namely Maarek (2012), The Cheka (2012), Genki (2010), Borderlescott (2006) or Continent (2004).
In the last 10 years the race has been dominated by 4 year olds (4 winners), 5 year olds (3 winners) & 6 year olds (3 winners) carrying a weight between 8-6 - 9-2 with the most successful winning weight being 9-2 (4 winners), the most successful trainer in recent years is Kevin Ryan who has won the last 2 renewals & has 3 in the last 10 years in total as does Dandy Nicholls (6 winners in total since the turn of the century).
As for the effect of the draw in the last 10 years I would say low just holds sway with 5 winners, 2 2nd's & 5 3rd's coming from a berth between 1 - 10, those drawn in the middle (12-18) tend to get lost for win purposes while higher drawn horses (19-27) have a record of 3 winners, 5 2nd's & 3 3rd places.
So I've ruled out Jack Dexter who next the current second favourite is Baccarat who I had primed for The Great St Wilfrid ever since his dead heat over CD at the start of the year, he is young improving horse but I'm unsure whether he wants soft ground & is drawn in the middle. Using the way of working out above I will cut the field up now so gone are Jack Dexter, Hamza, Tropics, Hoof It, Hawkeyethenoo, Spinatrix, Mass Rally, Captain Ramius, Highland Colori, Hasopop, Regal Parade, & Heaven's Guest.
A field of 27 has now been culled to just 15 so I've already dismissed Baccarat that leaves 14. Starting with Humidor who is back to his last winning mark but has never convinced at 6f, Bogart represents Kevin Ryan so warrants respect & is an extremely backable price after an excusable performance in The Portland last week when he was on the wrong side he has 1 win from 1 visit to Ayr so he is considered. Nocturn impressed me at Windsor back in the early season so much so that I've followed him since thinking the Wokingham was his..he has no form on Soft so I will pass him over for tomorrow. Duke Of Firenze is another who has promised alot & what a coup for Cathy Gannon riding for Sir Michael Stoute but his 2 starts on soft have been less than ispiring. Lover Man is a complete dark horse who clearly goes on the ground you couldn't possibly know what he will do. Red Dubawi represents trainer David Marnane who does well with this type of horse & his ability to excel on the going brings him into contention. Gabriel's Lad I'll be honest has been my idea of the winner since his last run at Ascot, he travelled beautifully into contention before just not lasting home, he has form a soft ground & has long threatened to win a big handicap. Khubala is another who has been targeted at this race but has been running consistently all summer & is now off a career high mark today I cam see him being placed but is passed over for the win purposes. Joe Eile is another Irish raider who will love the ground but again is paying for running well as he is off a career high mark, a big run would not surprise though. Lightning Cloud is another Kevin Ryan & reminds me of last year's winner Captain Ramius who was better known at 7f as is Lightning Cloud, he in 3 runs has never placed at Ayr & the ground will not be ideal but he does act on it to me he is worth chancing at big odds to run a big race. Dubawi Sound has shown nothing for ages while Louis The Pious has disappointed me so far this season even though I know he could pop up in one of these. Our Jonathan showed nothing last week for all he's well handicapped & finally Majestic Myles formerly Group class but his regression has seen him drop 10lbs, he can't be backed but is dangerously well handicapped.
So in short I am a fan of Gabriel's Lad (blue & white) & believe he can win even though I'm not in love with his draw so I will back him up with Lightning Cloud (tan).
The consolation Ayr Silver Cup will be a pointer to the main event, I will be siding with another Kevin Ryan inmate who finished 4th to my main Ayr Gold Cup fancy last time & that horse is Trail Blaze who looks sure to suited by dropping back to 6f on soft ground. My good friend from last week Sir Reginald must also have a very good chance given the form he's in & another interesting runner could be Gandalak who showed blinding speed on his first 2 starts in this country, he went up in the weights quickly & could not cope so is likely to return refreshed after a 3 month break.
The two stakes races at Ayr look quite competitive but are not races I would bet in I think they should be fought out by First Mohican/Whille The Whipper & Henry Candy's pair of Valonia/Veiled Intrigue plus Simple Magic respectively. If I have another bet on the Ayr card it will most likely come in the form of Wyborne in the last who didn't quite get home last time over 1f further but travelled well for a long way.
Down at Newbury Kassiano should win the newly named Legacy Cup Group 3 & I can't see past Shamshon in The Mill Reef. The Dubai Duty Free Handicap usually a good trial for The Cambridgeshire has been dominated by 4 year olds recently winning 7 out of 10 & Luca Cumani has won 4 in 10 strangely he has no contender this year. Trade Commissioner should have won many more races than he has for a horse of his ability, his ride last time was not one of the normally excellent William Buick's best (we can't always be brilliant) he had far to much to do & finished well so much so that he went into my notebook. Tomorrow's race is less competitive & he should go very close under top weight. Trader Jack has only 1 win to his name & he does seem to struggle to win for all he is consistent. I'm not sure I can have Black Spirit even though he is better than the majority of the field, Chapter Seven is still too high in the weights, Disclaimer had looked an improving horse before failing to stay 2 miles in the Queens Vase he has been given plenty of time to recover & rates a big player. Viewpoint could well be the one he won a competitive Goodwood handicap in July he has been running to a level in his last 2 races but the softer ground tomorrow should help him.
The Dubai Airport World Trophy looks a smashing Group 3 with Steps taking the next step up the ladder after an unlucky defeat in The Portland last week he must go very well & should come out on top against the his conqueror at Doncaster Angels Will Fall add York Glory vs Stepper Point round 2 into the mix as well plus Tickled Pink, Maarek & old boy Kingsgate Native.
I am off to Newbury today for my first race meeting in a few months which I am looking forward to...weddings do tend to get in the way. Its not the greatest card but there is plenty of intrigue 2 average looking divisions of the 2 year old maiden kick things off before we move into a good looking handicap in which I am most likely to be backing Signed Up, he is a gorgeous looker who I saw at Ascot last season today's ground should be right up his street. A conditions race of nearly horses follows in which the enigmatic Bonfire looks to prolong his stay with Highclere.
The race I'm looking forward to most is The Haynes Hanson & Clark conditions race which has been won by some stars of the past Henbit, Shergar, Rainbow Quest, Unfuwain, Kings Theatre & Nayef. Marcus Tregoning has a stunning record with 5 winners in the last 15 years he runs the maiden Castle Combe who ran an eyecatching debut behind another runner today What About Carlo in fact the latter has already beaten another of today's rivals Pupil. Pinzolo won his maiden well & will appreciate the ground while likely favourite Red Galileo has been beaten twice in maidens those 2 races have not produced much as of yet so it remains to be seen whether he is priced up on reputation alone either way I am looking forward to seeing all these promising horses in the paddock. At present I am leaning towards What About Carlo who I know is highly rated by his stable.
The feature is a 7f Listed race in which Saeed Bin Suroor has a great record, it looks a good opportunity for the enigmatic Tawhid to regain the winning thread a hood should help him.
I will no doubt be tweeting pictures from today & reviewing the races so stay tuned on my Twitter handle @fttfracing
Up at Ayr in The Bronze Cup I will chance my arm on Farlow for Richard Fahey.
Today's bets
14:30 Newbury Dubai Duty Finest Surprises Handicap
Signed Up 9/1 Sportingbet WIN or E/W if he drifts
16:00 William Hill Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap
Farlow 16/1 Bet365 1/4 odds 5 places E/W
Saturday's Selections
14:40 William Hill Ayr Silver Cup Handicap
Trail Blaze 16/1 Bet365 1/4 odds 5 places E/W
14:55 Newbury Dubai Duty Free Handicap
Trade Commissioner best price available WIN
15:50 William Hill Ayr Gold Cup Handicap
Gabriel's Lad 12/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Paddy Power 1/4 odds 5 places E/W
Lightning Cloud 20/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Paddy Power 1/4 odds 5 places E/W
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