Tomorrow's racing at this stage looks set to be affected by a band of wet weather which is apparently sweeping the country we have had a slight drizzle here in Bracknell this morning but nothing dramatic as of yet so Ascot looks set fair for Good to Firm at this stage however Haydock's Betfred Sprint Cup is now soft at the time of writing which is no surprise with the showers on already watered ground.
Kempton Park has no such worries with its synthetic surface & arguably one of the best runnings of the September Stakes I can remember since we lost the Turf Flat course to the synthetic surface while over in Ireland the Saturday evening card is excellent with a competitive & intriguing running of The Red Mills Irish Champion Stakes remember to tune in to ATR at 18:50 to watch the race.
I'll start at Haydock in which there is an impossible looking edition of the Be Friendly Handicap over 5 furlongs followed by a Group 3 event over 1 mile in which the classy Montiridge looks to take another step up the ladder, he faces off against old rival Tawhid & the progressive Nine Realms who looks to have a tough task giving weight to the two aforementioned horses.
One of the Big Handicap's of the Day is next up in the shape of The Old Borough Cup in which Pallasator makes his eagerly awaited return to action having been taken out of the Ebor due to Firm conditions a few days before only for the heavens to open the night before, he is not well handicapped but anythings possible with Sir Mark..this race does however have some strong trends ie Mark Johnston has won 4 out of the last 10 runnings his two runners tomorrow are the consistent Oriental Fox & Scatter Dice I'm sure they'll run their races but should find 1 or 2 too good. Improving 4 year olds also tend to go well in this event which brings in Poyle Thomas & likely favourite Semeen but of the two as its rained I believe Poyle Thomas will be better suited. Some usual suspects make up the rest of the field but their are two more who deserve decent mentions; they are Cousin Khee & Suraj. Cosuin Khee's owner won this race with the grand horse Balkan Knight back in 2005 & this animal really appeals as the type that could well win one of these events, he is 8lbs higher than his last win so he has to prove he is up to this but he is lightly raced in Flat racing terms so it could happen. The case for Suraj is less obvious but I have been following him for a while now & if the rain does come then he would be a strong fancy for me the reason for this he was a very progressive 3 year old even talked of as a Leger candidate at one stage, he beat Beyond Conceit by 6 lengths during that time (he is only 3lbs higher today) & finished 6th when favourite to Mount Athos at York before embarking on a mis-advised hurdling career. Since then he has form figures of 0030 not inspiring I know but he was badly drawn in the Chester Cup, clearly did not stay in the Ascot Stakes which has proven to be a very hot staying handicap & last time had no chance after missing the break from a bad draw at York the one shining light is the 3 which was at Goodwood behind runaway winner Harris Tweed over tomorrow's distance on softening ground, he stayed on strongly down the outside showing ability remains at a tasty price he will be a bet for me tomorrow.
Haydock's Big Flat race of the year is The Betfred Sprint Cup, The Sprint find of the season Lethal Force is favourite to bag another Group 1 I have to say I've been staggered by his improvement this year but then I guess the sprint division is still one of the weaker ones. Any rain would look to hinder this Grey's speed as he only has one piece of form with soft in the description in a lowly maiden at Bath. I had Slade Power marked up for this race last year but he didn't take his chance so finally after a year's wait he gets to have a go, I think he's nailed on to hit the frame especially with the rain, he has handled soft well before when winning a Listed event at Fairyhouse last summer even though the margin of victory was short those who watched the race will know he won it cosily & back in 4th that day was Gordon Lord Byron...enough said for me so get on it!
Now off to Ascot & Kempton which you may as well do as they are separated by 13 miles so you could go see the first 3 from Kempton before flying down the M3 to Ascot for the Big 3 year old Handicap whoever creates the fixture list clearly needs their head testing.
One of those Ascot specials opens their card a 7 furlong cavalry charge in these races I tend to take a strong view with one horse otherwise you could be here all day & that one horse tomorrow is Pythagorean who was very unlucky at Goodwood last time finishing late & fast after a bad draw of course he is a hold up horse so he will no doubt have to be lucky again. He is 12lbs above his last winning mark but he has been very consistent of late, he shapes to me as though he is still in form & still improving.
In the Two year old conditions event at 15:00 racegoers could see a potentially useful filly in the shape of Andrew Balding's Casual Smile (Sea The Stars x Casual Look) hopefully she can build on the distinct promise of her debut. A cracking 3 year old staying handicap is up next I have no strong fancy in this but last year's winner was the superbly consistent Ahzeemah in behind him that day were Stencive, Silver Lime, Gospel Choir, Opinion & Sun Central so its always a race worth recording.
Kempton's September Stakes had really been on the downgrade since the course became All Weather but finally tomorrow's race is well up to the previous standard spearheaded by the Godolphin duo the Melbourne Cup bound improving Royal Empire & last year's Arc 3rd Masterstroke not to mention last year's Derby 2nd Main Sequence plus the globetrotting Wigmore Hall throw into the mix a Group 1 winner from Chile & some able handicappers you have a proper above standard Group 3 hurrah! As for the winner well Royal Empire has winning course form & should prove hard to beat. Later on in the Kempton card is also stacked with the London Mile Series Final looking tough & a deep looking 2 year old Group 3 with another couple of runners from the boys in blue of the two meetings I would suggest go to Kempton for a better quality card & oh its cheaper!
The action doesn't end in the afternoon either as the initiative of making Group 1 races prime time in Ireland continues at Leopardstown with the Red Mills Irish Champion Stakes to be run at 18:50, I had a horrible feeling this race would cut up earlier in the week but at the moment it hasn't although any rain I'm sure would rule out The Fugue. Old rivals Al Kazeem & Declaration of War re oppose with score now 1-1 while the ever consistent Trading Leather again turns up for another big assignment throw into the mix the return of the much heralded Kingsbarns. superstar mare The Fugue plus two horses looking to revive former glories last year's runaway Ribblesdale winner Princess Highway & the long forgotten 2011 Dewhurst winner Parish Hall....it really is a quality event. So starting from the top Al Kazeem; better ground will help if it comes had looked unbeatable until his latest race when I thought he was ring rusty as well as the ground not helping. Declaration Of War; gained another Group 1 win after a string of consistent efforts at top level in beating Trading Leather / Al Kazeem in the Juddmonte but did everything just go his way Al Kazeem had excuses while Trading Leather had to make his own running also softening ground in top company may not be ideal. Parish Hall; a real unknown, Jim Bolger thought a hell alot of him as a 2 & 3 year old but he failed to make the track last year reappearing to win an ordinary Listed race before probably feeling the effects of his first run in ages when being beaten by the extremely disappointing Camelot, he has since been off for a further 4 months is he a pacemaker? either way he is a potential fly in the ointment. Euphrasia; is outclassed but is the pace of the race & handles cut. Princess Highway; hasn't looked the same filly as last year's Ribblesdale suggested she might for a while now & cannot be fancied. The Fugue; if it was genuinely fast I believe she would win but with the likely rain you have to doubt she'll run. Kingsbarns; oh Kingsbarns...Kingsbarns....where have you been? my ante post bets long since torn up & finally you return he has the beating of Trading Leather but how much will he need tomorrow's run & how much ability is retained...if all is ok which you assume it must be for him to run then he surely will figure at the business end but can you back him?...not really instead back him for the Champion Stakes for which is currently 14/1 in the hope he runs in the first 3 on Saturday night. Trading Leather; clearly the best 3 year old middle distance horse this year & he must have a fantastic chance tomorrow soft ground does worry me slightly as his trainer stated last year that he wouldn't want it but that was as a 2 year old after a quick run when Kingsbarns beat him, he is a much stronger & very consistent animal now. He can sit just off the pace & pounce tomorrow...I wish he had run in the Derby!
Also set your alarms for 06:30 tomorrow am or record on the digital recorder of your choosing ATR Sky Channel 415 for the Group 1 Maykbe Diva Stakes at Flemington as it features current Melbourne Cup first & second favourites Puissance De Lune & the former Sir Micheal Stoute Sea Moon, in total the race has 8 individual Group 1 winners from the 14 runners so its a race worth watching yet funnily enough the current top 2 in the market have yet to win at the top level & those two have vastly different backgrounds;
Puissance De Lune came from the french provinces & is now unbeaten in 4 Australian starts from 7f - 1m5f which is impressive as on pedigree he really shouldn't stay any further than 1m2f, its also the way he wins from close to the pace or flying from off the pace just check out his latest win (an unlucky dead heat) see You Tube Video that won't save here or see the video above of one of his impressive wins.
Sea Moon however is a blue blooded former Juddmonte inmate who has won a Hardwicke Stakes, a Great Voltigeur beating Al Kazeem & finished 2nd in a Breeders Cup Turf, he has yet to race in Australia but has done a few barrier trials which have been said to have been ok he will surely need this race especially at 1m. Others to note are 2011 St Leger winner Masked Marvel again having his first Austrailian start, old stagers Manighar, Mourayan, Ethiopa are also in attendance but the most interesting for me is former German Derby winner Waldpark who is another making his Australia debut its his first start since May this year when he was a head second to Novellist,
I don't expect him to win tomorrow but I can see him running well & popping up over the next few weeks before a run he is certainly going to get in the big one on Tuesday 5th November as he is rated highly enough. At current odds of 66/1 he is worth chancing now each way.
So hope you enjoyed my preview & check back at various times during the week for my musings & thoughts on the state of horse racing, horses to follow, what I'm backing etc
So remember I am backing these tomorrow so if you fancy joining me feel free or avoid them either way I wouldn't tell anyone what to back but if asked I am backing these horses.......
Ante Post Melbourne Cup 05/11/13
Waldpark E/W 66/1 Bet365 / BetVictor / Stan James
13:55 Ascot Fly Lodon Southend Airport Handicap
Pythagorean WIN 8/1 or better William Hill
15:15 Haydock Betfred 'Goals Galore' Old Borough Cup Handicap
Suraj E/W 20/1 Bet365 / Stan James
15:50 Haydock Betfred Sprint Cup Group 1
Slade Power WIN 9/1 Skybet
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