Hello & welcome along to my latest blog...its been awhile, after Newbury's Hennessy Meeting I realised how badly out of form I was so in these circumstances I find it best to take a step back & re-evaluate the situation over however long a course is necessary, to me it wasn't just my betting that had lost its sparkle but also my race reading so for the last 2 weeks I have hardly watched a race live. I have of course missed winners this always happens when you take a break but I am happy to have missed them as they are the horses I picked out on the day or a couple of days before when perusing the entries so that has been a very positive sign. Now I feel the time is right to test the water again before a busy festive period in which a handful of long term strong ante post fancies are due to run.
I really should be attending Ascot on Saturday but the dreaded last few bits for Christmas shop has taken over still I'm not quite sure how I've managed it but I have a pass to miss this year's big family Boxing Day gathering (The Mother-In-Law's side of the family descend on her house in there dozens upto 25 in places, have had the past 3 years of it so am relieved not to be going) & pootle 30 mins down the road to enjoy the wonderful sport on offer from Kempton.
Ascot's main focus of attention is the hugely competitive Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle which is the last race on the card so by race time conditions will be fairly testing as it was last season when Gordon Elliott's Cause Of Causes won in a bog. The main trends to focus on are:
The market leaders
So here is my rundown on this years runners:
Petit Zig - Carries top weight courtesy of a big win on bad ground in France last time, has reportedly taken time to get over that trip so another taxing run in bad ground looks far from ideal, has it all to do with Flaxen Flare on last season's form
Rolling Star - (Left below) Won an uncompetitive 5 runner event at Haydock latest & looks harshly handicapped on last season's efforts
Shotavodka - Comes from a hot handicap hurdle at Newbury's Hennessy Meeting, honest & tough he will be in there pitching but is too high in the handicap for win purposes
Chatterbox - Honestly I just don't think he's a 2 miler but on this ground he may have a squeak. Not for me
Chris Pea Green - (On the right of pic below) His trainer Gary Moore has an excellent record in this race & has already won well over the course & distance earlier in the season. Will love the ground & must have a very good chance of hitting the frame
Irish Saint - Just can't have him, fell last time & is not up to this
Flaxen Flare - (See Below) Has been my idea of the winner of this race for sometime, reportedly this event has been one of his main targets of the season, he has been brought along nicely in his 2 runs this year behind Jezki & staying on behind Dell 'Arca last time. The ground is perfect for him & he can follow up the stables win in this last year at very rewarding odds
City Slicker - The real unknown of the race & one of the ever increasing band of Mullins horses to cross the Irish sea, has won his last 2 starts impressively. Up in grade today he will no doubt be in there pitching but the softening ground is a worry for me at his cramped odds
Pine Creek - Gained his big win at Ascot earlier in the season when winning the William Hill Handicap Hurdle, he has since been brushed aside in the Cheltenham race that Flaxen Flare was 4th & Dell 'Arca Won. A bit high in the weights for me
Ronaldo De Mottes - Decent old stick who should have won more races over the years. Younger legs will be moving faster than his today
Waterunder - Had been in good form through the summer but was well beaten the other weekend. Again a few lbs too high for me
Dell 'Arca - (See Below) Came with a huge reputation from France before travelling & jumping like an old pro to win the equally competitive Greatwood Handicap Hurdle last time. He could still be ahead of the handicapper as a 8lb rise is not insurmountable. Like the way he attacks his Hurdles & is the main danger to Flaxen Flare for me
Landscape - Thrown in at the deep end on his seasonal debut & first start for Venetia Williams team. One piece of form stands out from last year an impressive win in a good Handicap for the course last December but it remains to be seen whether he is up to the mark he finds himself on. Should cope with the conditions
Swing Bowler - Excellent little mare who may well just about bring the best form into the race having finished 3rd to My Tent Or Yours in last season's Betfair Hurdle. Has a decent weight for one who should still be improving but the softening ground is my main concern first time out
Dan Breen - Grand old boy who struggles to win but was 3rd in this last year from the same mark in similar ground. Could sneak a place
Alaivan - (See Below) Was a pretty decent Juvenile Hurdler 3 seasons back winning Grade 2's & a Listed event. Off the boil upped in Grade in 2011 & off since until a few weeks ago at Wetherby. Jonjo is not averse to winning these Handicaps with horses of a similar ilk & is off a feather-weight chucked in on old form, it will be interesting to see if there is serious money for him
Kayliff Aramis - Has progressed massively in the last year & 24lb higher mark than when winning at Ffos Las almost a year ago. It is a big ask over a trip short of his best but again the ground brings him into this, he was travelling well when falling at Cheltenham last time
Recession Proof - Former winner of a poor Totesport Trophy to be honest & did nothing after. Had a year off & returned with 2 runs on the flat before a very average run over timber last time. Cannot be fancied
Vulcanite - Will love the ground but seems to have fallen out of love with the game
Totalize - Runs for the first time over Hurdles since a distant 5th to Flaxen Flare at last year's Festival. Big ask even though his astute trainer will have him ready to rock & roll
Willows Saviour - Has been in good form at the start of this season but faces a huge step up in class today on ground that won't suit at all
Cracking race in which I am a huge fan of Flaxen Flare at a great E/W price
Earlier on Ascot's card I would have been very keen on Bless The Wings (see below)
after a cracking first run of the season at the start of November when he travelled supremely well before tiring but with his stable potentially under a cloud that has to be a worry. I couldn't fancy Triolo D'Alene in the Hennessy so I have no reason to fancy him off a higher mark today besides I believe that Bless The Wings has the beating of him so even with the doubts I will stick with him. Its a good little race though as Cedre Bleu also ran with promise at Newbury last time out.
The Long Walk has now lost Celestial Halo so it makes life a bit easier for At Fisher's Cross this time if his jumping is better as he was always going to beat by old Celestial last time due to his very poor jumping which was underlined by an awful one at the 2nd to last. Reve De Sivola bolted up in this last year under similar conditions & must rate a huge danger. Old Time For Rupert reverts back to hurdles but for all he is a very good horse he has not yet one a Graded race which is actually quite shocking. Salubrious is an improving animal but this is quite a quick turn around after last week while Tweedledrum is outclassed.
Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle Grade 3
Flaxen Flare 16/1 E/W BetVictor / Coral 1/4 odds 4 places
@fttfracing
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