Hello & welcome along to my third blog of this years DIRC, after 2 weeks we are beginning to see the usual patterns apply with Godolphin already hitting stride although not through 6 times Champion Carnival Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor but in the shape of the new kid on the block Charlie Appleby who has had a fabulous start to the meeting with 4 winners, 2 seconds, 2 thirds, 1 fourth & 1 fifth from 16 runners.
Mike De Kock however has had a slow start by his high standards with just the 2 winners although the Great South African has expected this to happen as his string is a little backward on previous years but I would be fairly confident that over the next few weeks winners will begin to flow through the added fitness of having a run & when the stables bigger guns reappear.
Race 1 on Thursday night is a 6f Tapeta handicap which on paper looks extremely tough.
Intransigent makes his UAE debut for Ian Balding from top weight & an enhanced rating of 105, his last win was off 100, an improved horse last season he ended up finishing 8th in a Group 3 at Ascot. His AWT form is excellent so handling the Tapeta should be of no concern although his draw is a concern.
Merhee (see photo) is a Group 2 winner from South Africa last season who had previously suffered a serious bout of colic before his Group 2 success & according to connections he has a lot of heart, he seems fairly handicapped but will most likely need this.
Arnold Lane ran no sort of race 2 weeks ago & is still too high in the weights. Tennessee Wildcat is also probably still too high in the weights & has again suffered from the draw. Masamah is getting on a bit now & makes his UAE debut over a trip he has still yet to win over. Racy once again has an average draw & has only ever tried a synthetic surface once in his career, he also has only 2 wins to his name.
Alraihjan comes from Saudi Arabia off the back of 3 wins & is impossible to weigh up. Jamesie ran no more than ok on his UAE debut, for all he will come on from his first run he is hard to win with as is Lui Rei.
Master Of War was a useful 2 year old whose only try in a handicap was a disappointing one but has been eased a few lbs since then & on his first start for Dhruba Selvaratnam is an interesting contender. Mujaazef is a Jebel Ali specialist who won nicely last time out & is still favourably treated at these weights. Proud Possibility met some trouble in running on his UAE debut & rates better than his finishing position, he has an excellent draw on Thursday which brings him into contention.
Red Dubawi showed nothing last time but Spirit Of Battle is an interesting contender from the bottom of the weights, he has been in good form in the last few months & has good Meydan form.
A non betting event for ne likely to fought out between Master Of War & Proud Possibility with a good run from Merhee on his return.
Race 2 is a 12f Turf handicap in which I am keen on Dormello who ran an eye catching race over an inadequate trip last time out back up in trip I feel he will be extremely hard to beat. Bank Of Burden despite useful Scandinavian form is harshly weighed on his previous Meydan form, Jutland is a consistent animal but is paying for that in the weights. Certerach ran some good races in Meydan last year behind good horses, he has been competitive of marks in the 100's before & assuming he is fit & ready rates a danger to Dormello. Topclas hasn't won since 2011 & has not eased sufficiently enough in the weights to be considered on Thursday. Submariner showed very little the other day while Genius Beast has not been seen on a racecourse since a disappointing run in the St Leger of 2011, he will surely need this. Tanfeeth & Jedi are UAE also ran of the last 2 years & both need to find more to be competitive in this. The Bin Suroor duo of Handsome Man & Excellent Result (see photo working together) are useful UK handicappers who both have good looking marks, Excellent Result is the improver of the 2 who off his mark must be the type who can win in Dubai & is the most likely to give the selection Dormello most to do. Handsome Man hasn't won since 2012 & is back on a workable mark. Restraint Of Trade returns after a 446 day absence, his last run was a defeat of Cap O'Rushes as a 2yr old in the Zetland Stakes, he could be anything but it is a big ask after the absence judging how returning horses from the same stable have performed.
I am a Dormello man in this race he is my NB of the day, Excellent Result & Certerach can follow him home.
Race 3 is an 8f Tapeta handicap, Capital Attraction is far too high in the weights, Sommerbend represents Germany & won his prep for the Carnival at Deauville back in December, his draw is awful. Chil The Kite comes from the astute Hughie Morrison stable, he didn't quite make it at Group level last season & faces a tough task on his UAE debut on a synthetic surface for the first time.
Solar Deity has been a AWT specialist in the UK for the last few seasons but judged on that form looks very harshly treated on his UAE debut. Spoil The Fun represents a stable & owner that have done well in Dubai, he has a good looking draw & good minor stakes race form in France which makes him one to watch.
Old Barbecue Eddie is a local favourite but faces an uphill task in this, the Irish raider Captain Joy has been in excellent form in the last year & has paid for it by his rise in the weights, his draw is no help. Silver Ocean is another Scandinavian import who in the last 2 years has shown very little in Dubai, even allowing for the fact he has the brilliant Frankie Dettori on board he has very little chance. Derbaas ran a decent race back down in a handicap last week & is out again on Thursday, he is getting down to a very competitive mark.
Free Wheeling (see photo when in Oz) went into my notebook 2 weeks ago & he returns on Tapeta which is what I hoped he would as he showed good form on that surface last season, he has a great draw & is my idea of my NAP of the night.
Disa Leader usually runs his race but I can't see him being involved while Bertiewhittle is the most consistent of individuals but for all his good runs he has still never won off anything higher than 84. Mont Ras is also still a little high on his form & this is another tough assignment on Thursday.
Alexandra Palace (see photo, no.6) is another of Mike De Kock's 3 year olds from last season that went into quarantine early specifically for Dubai after finishing a disappointing 13 of 16 in the SA Classic Grade 1 before that he had Won the Listed Sea Cottage Stakes over 1800m “He’s a classy horse but he’s still learning to race,’’ said Matthew de Kock, assistant to father Mike.
“His main mission is the SA Classic but he’s good enough to run a big race over 1600m. If he gets away with the first leg, he could be a Triple Crown contender.’’ I have no doubt this a useful horse but he will improve for this run & he is one for the future.
Not A Given has had a summer to adjust to Dubai after coming from the US for last year's Carnival & not showing anything. It would be no real surprise if he performed better on Thursday.
Free Wheeling is my NAP of the night.
Race 4 is a odd looking 10f Tapeta handicap featuring horses that could have been anything & ones that have never been better than what they are.
Daddy Long legs has been out of form for ages now & has no hope. Zip Top (see photo) returns from over a 2 year absence he's not been seen since a second place finish in the Racing Post Trophy to the ultimately disappointing Camelot, its amazing he is back & let alone in Godolphin blue, he will be fit for this or else there is no point running him & they have found him a winnable race if he retains any ability.
Mutajare seems harshly handicapped on recent form against a better class of opposition on Thursday. Manalapan is an improving Irish horse who looks fairly weighted on his recent AWT form he must go well. Windhoek looked like he may turn out to be a proper horse last season but after 2 straight wins, he went of the boil after that until 2 good seconds on his last 2 starts. He has every right to improve as a 4 year old in the care of Godolphin so he is a player. I can't have Sweet Lightning or old Izaaj & Layali Al Andalus despite the last two's good recent form. Banoffee is another from Hughie Morrison's stable & similar to Windhoek after an excellent start to her career it went backwards after, she is a contender on class alone but I would rather let her run.
Plantagenet is my idea of the winner however from a extremely lenient mark of 98, he has won at the last 2 Carnival's & clearly loves the Dubai sun.
The big race of the night is Al Fahidi Fort Group 2, it is a excellent edition of this contest featuring 2 winners from Night 1; Fulbright & Anaerobio. Both horses won well that night & bring similar form to the table, they are difficult to split. Mshawish (see photo) is a very decent animal from France who should improve as a 4 year old, I would envisage that he will be fit enough to do himself justice on Thursday & under Frankie must have a very good chance.
Musthaeel is outclassed in this company, Pearl Flute is another French 4 year old who has similar collateral form to Mshawish & has the potential to improve again, I feel Mshawish is the better animal though. Kavanagh a stablemate of Anaerobio ran a decent race last week despite pulling hard over 6f, he has won many times over 7f in his native South Africa & the step up may well suit him on Thursday.
Heavy Metal (see photo, nearest) was last year's Durban July winner when he was sent off at 16/1 which he won in a driving finish, this step down in trip is a good prep for his future targets & I wouldn't be expecting anything other than a 5th or 6th placed finish on Thursday.
I can't have Tamaathul, Iguzau Falls, Dafeef, Roi Du Vitesse or Le Drakkar in this exalted company. Gale Force Ten last year's Jersey Stakes winner was disappointing on all 3 starts after & has changed to Mike De Kock in the off season, Dux Scholar ran no sort of race last time so he needs to bounce back of this he is clearly capable.
A cracking race one in which I feel Kavanagh may step up on his run last week but I prefer Mshawish for win purposes.
The last race of the night is a 9f Turf handicap which sees Gabrial (see video) returns to action, I imagined it would be in the previous race the Al Fahidi Fort over the mile but its a 9f handicap for him the trip he made his UAE debut over 2 weeks ago, the ground should be much more to his liking on Thursday & reunited with Jamie Spencer he must have a very good chance if his mind stays on the job.
Elleval is a decent performer in the UAE on Tapeta & after a setback, he is best watched. Tarbawi is back in a more suitable garde but still faces a tough task as does the old boy War Monger. Without Fear has collateral form with a runner earlier on the card Bank Of Burden but on last seasons efforts in the UAE is not a factor in this. Do It All actually showed more than he has done for awhile last time out & if he fancies it granted an easy lead could be hard to peg back.
Starboard had been a decent 3 year old winning a Group 3 in France but has been mainly disappointing since including on 2 runs in Dubai last year, he has switched to David Simcock now & if he retains any ability then he could play a part. Vasily was in the form of his life last season & has since been switched to Mike De Kock, he is off a career high mark on Thursday which will make things tough. El Estruendoso was disappointing last time & has it to prove for me. Auditor seems to be on a very fair mark judging by his french provincial form & can play a part.
Sanshaawes (see photo) represents Mike De Kock & was bought for the Carnival last season after finishing a close-up third in the 2013 Gr 1 Cape Derby. Sanshaawes has won one race from12 starts, earning R226,710 in stakes. “I've had my eye on Sanshaawes for a while,” said Mike de Kock. Sanshaawes was purchased by Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum. Clearly an interesting animal from his low weight he will surely benefit from the run after such a long time off, one for later in the Carnival.
I have long held the opinion that Fantastic Moon (see photo) is tailor made for the Carnival, this big horse will have improved for another winter on his back & I think he can take this from a very reasonable mark but Gabrial is the one for me at a generous price.
@fttfracing
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