Hello & welcome along to my preview of Night 4 of the Carnival. It looks another quality night of Flat racing action once more with the two main races attracting excellent fields. Mike De Kock looks to be the trainer to follow over the coming weeks with many of his runners sitting on big runs after promising first races, Saeed Bin Suroor has still yet to hit top stride but my sources indicate that he is expected to within the next couple of weeks.
Race 1 is a 5f Turf handicap identical to the one run on Night 1 which was won by Ahtoug who again takes his chance, he is now off a career high mark & has a wide draw to contend with. Old Hitchens is off his last winning mark but showed little on Tapeta admittedly in a much better race, he is another with a high draw to contend with. Beat Baby is too high in the handicap while Racy has shown very little in Dubai.
Roicead easily won a 6f Saturday handicap at Meydan recently & has paid for that with a rise in the weights, he likes to come through beaten horses so he will be involved but mostly likely in behind the main protagonists.
Merhee (see photo) is one of the De Kock horses that is in my notebook after last week's effort, i thought he may wait a week or two so it is a positive that the horse is out so quick he obviously came out of last week's run well, the trip should be fine for him & he could be a class apart.
Abstraction represents Sarah Dawson from Ireland, the colt's last 2 runs were in pattern company in which he did not disgrace himself, his last handicap win was off 86 so on the face of it a rating of 106 seems a little harsh to me.
Old Medicean Man won this race last year on his Carnival debut & returns 8lbs higher in the weights today, he is an admirable old sprinter who can be involved for a place but is not a win candidate for me. Alsaaeqah represents Saudi Arabia but is readily outclassed on all known form, Fityaan ran ok on his first start for a year & can improve on that.
Masamah ran a stormer over a trip to far last week but was still beaten by Merhee & I can't see him reversing the form on Thursday. On the other hand Monsieur Joe ran a race full of promise on the first Night behind Ahtoug, he has been given plenty of time to come on for that & this former Group class sprinter has to be feared with Kieran Fallon onboard.
My Propeller had no chance with the way the race was run on behind Ahtoug on the first night with the rain softened ground also a hindrance back on a faster surface a big run from her would not surprise. Seachantech was also behind Ahtoug in that race & will do well to be involved, his stablemate Take Ten fared better with a fast finishing 5th in that race however this is a much better race & he will struggle to better that.
Dungannon makes his Dubai debut at the age of 7 having ended last season in rude health, this strong travelling animal is always a threat in these sprints & is respected although I would imagine he will need this.
In summary I will stick with the potentially class animal is this race Merhee with Monsieur Joe to follow him home.
Race 2 is 9.5f Tapeta handicap, the spanish horse Abdel again heads the weights after a reasonable run on his Dubai debut, he has to improve to take this. Sahawar showed very little on his Dubai debut & tries Tapeta for the first time so he is best watched.
String Theory looked like making up into a useful horse at the start of last season, highly tried in the German 2000 Guineas he flopped in the Britannia but was brought back late last December to win 2 races on the AWT on those runs the Tapeta should hold no fears but he does seem harshly judged compared to his rivals on Thursday.
Ottoman Empire is a standing dish in Dubai but faces some improving young rivals in this event namely Clon Brulee who according to my sources has improved massively from his first start & is fancied to regain the winning thread in this event.
Regulation is a decent Irish handicapper but he showed little last time & the trip is a worry. Intrigo looks set to give his running again after a terrific first effort from a poor draw last time out (although the effect of the draw was negated by the pace of the race) he is a consistent individual.
Robert The Painter rates better than his finishing position last time after being badly hampered, his chance was gone after that & his jockey looked after him, in a smaller field & with that run under his belt he can be the danger to Clon Brulee. Start Right showed nothing last time & remains on the downgrade while Rebel Song has been in rude health leading up to his first start at the Carnival for his rookie trainer Ahmad Bin Harmash & a bold showing would be of no surprise. The filly Agent Allison is a surprise inclusion in this, she has shown very little since chasing home Maureen in last season's Fred Darling & has also yet to show that the trip suits.
Clon Brulee all the way for me.
The first big race of the night is the Group 2 Cape Verdi over 8f on Turf. It has attracted a small but select field & it see's the return of The Champion Juvenile filly of 2012 Certify (see photo) one of the horses caught up in the Al Zarooni doping scandal that rocked the Godolphin operation last season. She has reportedly been working well & a big run is expected but as with all horses returning from a break she will come on from it. Hopefully she retains all her enthusiasm for racing which we won't know until after the race itself but on form she still holds a leading chance.
Shuruq switches back to turf which I have to say I am surprised about but from what my sources tell me they want to keep their options open with her for the Duty Free or The World Cup, she is a much better filly in Dubai so is respected but the pace is the issue for her in this race as I feel she is best off a strong gallop & this race certainly looks like it will be tactical.
Flotilla looked like she had the world at her feet after wins at The Breeders Cup as a 2 year old & a hard fought win in the French 1000 Guineas but it all seemed to go downhill after that however she has been kept in training which is a bold decision by connections so she must still be pleasing her trainer who had Mshawish run so well last week, the ground will suit & if she is ready she is a danger.
Mensoora (see photo) represents Mike De Kock she finished 6th in last season's Golden Slipper from a wide draw, 2 places ahead of Magrooma who has already shown a good level of form in Dubai, it is interesting he pitches this filly in against the older mares on Thursday & she is clearly rated highly. She produced 2 smart performances before stepping up in Grade last season as with all the De Kock runners at the Carnival who have been in quarantine she will most likely need this run.
The other French raider is the provincial runner L'Amour De Ma Vie who on all known form looks outclassed in this race while Pearl Of Africa is no more than a handicapper who has failed to mix it with the better fillies in Ireland.
Tough race to call so a non betting event for me.
Race 4 is a 7f AWT handicap which just looks impossible to me, it features a lot of horses who have been out of form & struggle to win mixed in with a couple of interesting types I can rule out Mufarrh, Defeef, Alhebayeb, Gold City & probably Tennessee Wildcat who is rated too highly.
Tamarkuz is the progressive 1 of the Hamdan quartet after 3 wins from 6 starts all 3 of those wins were achieved on the AWT. He is now with the extremely capable Muhasabah Al Muhairi & must go close.
Santefisio is an improved 8 year old for Keith Dalgleish who ran well in the top handicaps last season without looking like winning. His previous Meydan form simply is not good enough so looks set to struggle for a win.
Zahee was not good enough in the Dubai Triple Crown races last year but has stayed in Dubai throughout last year & may well have acclimatised better, he is now back in a grade he can win against opposition that in the majority struggle to trouble the judge.
The Gold Cheongsam was disappointing last time but so far both Noseda runners have be, I would hope that she has come on for this but she has to show something before i'd consider getting involved.
Eastern Rules won a couple of decent pots at the Curragh last season & has AWT winning form from Dundalk, at least he knows how to win so has to be respected in this contest. Risby ran just ok on his Carnival debut & his Spanish form is way below his compatriot Abdel.
Another non betting event.
The second of the night's big races is up next in the shape of the Group 2 Al Rashidiya over 9f on Turf.
It is a corking race:
Mushreq: Comfortable winner of Singspiel Stakes Listed form of which has been franked by Gabrial. Good consistent classy animal.
Educate: Last year's Cambridgeshire hero who is closely matched with Trade Storm on their run in the Celebration Mile at Goodwood. Should be competitive at normal Group 3/2 level back in England but this is a hot race.
Trade Storm: Nowhere near as good in England last season as he had been in Dubai so is respected back at Meydan a course where he clearly thrives.
Tasaday: (see photo) Top class French filly who takes on the colts for the first time rather than running against her own sex in the Cape Verdi. According to my sources she has been working well & is well liked by connections. Don't underestimate. (Also note she has been working with Clon Brulee as seen in the photo who runs earlier on the card)
Steeler: (see photo) According to the website (emiratesracing.com) & my sources he is back in Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed's colours on Thursday & reunited with Kieran Fallon. I have heard that Barzalona was not suited to him so as they have Kieran on their team it is logical to go back to a rider that has ridden him in most of his races. He has been working ok since his last run but I have heard he can be a little hard to handle so I would advise a watching brief.
Zambucca: Has good if not fantastic form in South Africa in behind horses like Heavy Metal. Would doubt he is good enough.
Van Rooney: Fast finishing in a handicap latest & outclassed in this.
Maputo: Carried all before him for Mark Johnston last season winning 6 times from handicaps to the Group 2 Royal Whip at the Curragh. Patently hated the heavy ground at Longchamp last start & remains with potential for better as a 4 year old. One word of caution the majority that Godolphin have inherited from Mark Johnston fail to deliver afterwards & this horse reminds me of Sea Lord (look where he's ended up Novice Hurdling for John Ferguson).
Dastarhon: Excelled himself when 2nd in last season's French 2000 Guineas & unfortunately for his connections that was his highlight. He will do well to replicate that in this company.
Mujaarib: (see photo's) Ran in the same races as Zambucca in South Africa finishing in front of him on 2 occasions & behind him on another. Back in 2012 he won the Charity Cup with a surging late run afterwards De Kock said “Mujaarib was the unknown quantity in the race, but he rose to the occasion and we’re very pleased,” . He also revealed that Mujaarib was somewhat lucky ever to see a racetrack. The colt, bred in Australia & imported to train in South Africa, was constantly unsound as a three-year-old. “He was very problematic, so much so that we considered retiring him unraced. But he trotted on the treadmill for a long time and he started coming into himself, he matured into his physique and he’s a different horse today. He was well handicapped and the runner-up was gallant, but the results up!" Glen Hatt, who rode Mujaarib in that Charity Mile said “Mujaarib’s a big baby, he’s green and he got lost around the bend, but then he put his head down and gave it to me. Ooh.. he is a nice horse, he gives me a good feel!"
Clearly Mujaarib is a difficult horse to train but his form is not to bad always finishing a few lengths behind the principles & he is one to one to watch on Thursday.
Tales Of Grimm: Ran well in behind stablemate Gabrial (winner since) & Mushreq on his first UAE start but has work to do to turn the form around from his poor draw.
Brendan Brackan: Really has been done no favours with the draw & this likeable horse has it all on. He ran a cracker in the first round of the Maktoum challenge & would have been a strong fancy for me in this had he not been drawn in the Car Park.
A excellent renewal in which there are many interesting contenders, I would have really fancied Brendan Brackan but for his draw so I will side with Mushreq once more with Trade Storm & the filly Tasaday to chase him home.
The final race is 10f Turf handicap in which I am strong on the chances of Saxo Jack especially now he is back on Turf, he ran a great race first time travelling powerfully up to the lead before tiring on Tapeta, its disappointing that Silvestre has chosen Haafaguinea (see photo) but they can all get it wrong & my sources tell me Saxo Jack has been working better than Haafaguinea
who finished in front of Saxo when chasing home runaway winner Cat O'Mountain. The race suited Haafaguinea as he was settled in behind & stayed on whereas Saxo Jack was used early.
Master Plan a Group 3 winner on his last start in South Africa shoulders top weight he has collateral form with Mujaarib & Zambucca so it will be interesting to see how they go in comparison. On the face of it is high enough. Daddy Long Legs runs again is becoming extremely disappointing. Energia Eros has Group 3 winning form from Brazil but was disappointing on his UK debut at Lingfield, he is best watched. Aussie Reigns ran a corking first race behind Sheikhzayadroad but is vulnerable from his mark whereas Sefri, Moonlight Dash, Izaaj, Burano & Expense Claim all have to improve to take a hand.
Jawhar & Busker are the most interesting of the locals, Busker won on the first night in what had looked an average race but both Layali Al Andalus & El Estruendoso have run well since, & also hopefully Clon Brulee will have won earlier on the card, he has gone up but should remain competitive. Jawhar won a mile handicap on the 18th at Meydan (Saturday meeting) which was a fine performance considering he is best & Thursday's trip, he can also remain competitive.
Not a bad end to the card in which I hope Saxo Jack can confirm the promise of his first run back on Turf.
@fttfracing
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