Dubai International Racing Carnival: Night 5 Preview

Hello & welcome along to my preview of Night 5 of the Carnival...Night 5 already amazing how something goes so fast when you're enjoying it. This week sees the second leg of the Al Maktoum Challenge & the first Classic of the UAE season with the 1000 Guineas taking place on what looks another excellent card.

Its a 7f Tapeta Handicap that kicks off the night of thoroughbred action (after the Arabian's consent to strut their stuff in the 2nd leg of their version of the Maktoum Challenge) with some now very familiar faces in action. 

Silver Ocean showed very little on his first start of the Carnival & again faces a tough task with his high rating. Tamarkuz looked a hot head last week proving recalcitrant at the start & running with the choke out for most of the race, he undoubtedly has class to take this but I would not want to be with him. Encipher makes his Carnival debut after showing a liking for Jebel Ali but on handicap ratings he looks beatable on Thursday. 

Mustaheel ran as well as could be expected in a Group 2 on his latest start so this company is more realistic but he is deserted by the returning Paul Hanagan, Russian Rock is a local favourite & a Jebel Ali specialist having won 7 times at that course, he has also never won beyond 6f so Thursday trip is a doubt. 

Eastern Rules ran a good race last week over the same course & distance, if he reverts to being held up then he has chances if able to back up so quickly. My Freedom is clearly weighted to win a Carnival handicap so his run on the very first night was disappointing, he was never really involved getting stuck in behind horses, it is significant that he has been given plenty of time so better can be expected in this event. 

Now Spun, Santefisio, Alraihjan & Master Of War showed very little on their first starts at the Carnival so would not be on my radar. Dragon Falls represents Charlie Appleby's side of the Godolphin operation who are doing so well this season so he is respected for that & he looks well treated on his minor French handicap form, he seems to be improving judging by his win on Deauville's fibresand last season.

 Alnashmy will be the majority's view as the most likely winner but his draw in 1 is still problematic for an animal who just loves getting into trouble, he comes with risks attached so I would rather leave alone. I like old Spirit Of Battle who was gaining hand over fist at the line on his first start over a trip short of his best so back up a furlong with a slightly better draw in (2) rather than 1 last time he will do for me.

Spirit Of Battle 8/1 E/W Bet365 with Alnashmy fighting with Eastern Rules & Dragon Falls. 

Another trial for the colts classic follows in which half the field can be easily eliminated for lacking the resonate class & ability; Dubawi Fun, Eye In The Sky, Figure Of Speech, Make It Reel, Man Amongst Men, Najm Suhail (beaten by older rivals on Saturday), the debutants Salvadori & Max Beauty. 

That leaves just 4 runners to look at starting with Journeyman the South African who showed zilch last time out so you would think a lot better can be expected from this big horse. He's No Saint represents the excellent David Marnane operation so is respected, he has a Dundalk maiden win to his name before that he was only just caught by the potentially smart Agena at Leopardstown. 

Lastly its the two from Godolphin in the shape of the colt Pretend & the filly Autumn Lily, Pretend has a 7 length Kempton maiden win to his name last November so could be anything reports are that he has been working well & is expected to go very close. 

The filly Autumn Lily has had a run finishing behind her stablemate Wedding Ring in the trial for the 1000 Guineas where she got tired late on so better is expected from her on Thursday although it will be tough to beat the boys.

Not a betting race for me.

The first Classic of the UAE season is up next & it promises to be quite a race as De Kock faces up to Godolphin. 

Firstly I'll knock of the ones in behind as I firmly believe it is between the big 2 stables. 

Russia's Champion 2 year old filly Sign Of Lucky is now in the care of Doug Watson, she has won 4 out of her 5 starts (disqualified from her last win so really 5/5) so she of course could be pretty decent but Russian form is very weak compared to the rest of continental Europe. Follow this link for a video of her winning the Volga River Stakes Local Group 2 at Rostov-on-Don racecourse, it is eye opening to the say the least, the ground looks to some sort of AW but I have not seen many AW surfaces with as much kickback as at Rostov-on-Don racecourse to me it looks like a ploughed field that you would see on a point to point course & considering the money that comes out of Russia the track reminds me of a run down council estate in South London. You can also check out the rather shaky footage of her Grand Prix Win Local Group 1 at Krasnodar racecourse (she was disqualified, hard to see why in video as marquees in the way & she won by half the track).
More Aspen was easily beaten behind Wedding Ring recently & David Brown's Illuminating Dream faces an uphill task on her UAE debut. Letterfromamerica showed tenacity last time to stick on well but will need more than that on Thursday.

The Godolphin 3 are Ihtimal, Wedding Ring & Feeydah; starting with Feedyah (see photo) who represents Charlie Appleby & runs in Sheikh Ahmed's silks, she is by Street Cry so the Tapeta will hold no fears, in fact she has a debut Kempton AW success to her name as well as a win over Thursday's distance at Ascot in a 4 runner race where she showed a likeable attitude, she is not to be underestimated. 

Wedding Ring (see first photo) won the trial in convincing fashion but I would say this is a much hotter race so she will have to improve again while Ihtimal (see 2nd photo) makes her Dubai debut, she has been working well of late but the concern is she is a very slight filly who had 6 runs as a 2 year old & she is by Shamardal who does get AW winners but they are not some of his top runners. 

Mike De Kock also has 3 they are Magroora, Magrooma & Mensoora; firstly I am quite surprised that Soumillion has chosen to ride Mensoora (see last week's run below) who for all she showed some ability behind Certify last week she dropped away rather tamely, It feels like that this has all been a bit of a rush for her as running over 2 consecutive weeks is surely not ideal & judging by her keenness last week her draw will do her no favours as she will be posted wide. 

However I believe Soumillion's decision could well be to Richard Hughes' gain as I am very keen on Magrooma who travelled sweetly in her trial showing a nice turn of foot to kick into the lead before being run down by a fitter filly in the shape of Wedding Ring, she should have come on in leaps & bounds for that. The 3rd of the De Kock's runners Magroora was well behind stablemate Magrooma last time & faces an uphill task.

Magrooma 6/1 WIN Bet365 for me ahead of Feeydah, Mensoora & Wedding Ring

A trial for the feature staying events upcoming is up next in the shape of 1m6f handicap on Turf it features 2 horses that are in my notebook the top weight Star Empire & the lowly weighted Excellent Result. 

Star Empire ran a great first race & always wins second time up, in fact it was this race last year when he beat Certerach, he has to be feared but he is 8 so surely something younger should have his legs. Excellent Result sat too far out of his ground last time & races as though this step in trip will suit, off his mark I really do believe he will win this.

Certerach gained a deserved first success in Dubai recently & with that confidence booster behind him he will be hard to keep out of the frame. Jedi, Balladry & for all he is consistent Jutland look out of depth in this class of race. Tanfeeth ran out of his skin behind Certerach but again faces a tough task against some quality opposition over a trip he has faced just once before in this race 2 years ago when a never nearer 5th. Manalapan steps up markedly in trip from his first UAE start which was just ok, it should hold no fears for him on breeding so is the potential improver. 

Great Hall will appreciate this trip more than the 10f he ran over recently but to me is just not good enough in these top handicaps, the same can be said for Thecornishcockney, Ralston Road (for all he will appreciate the step up), Without Fear (who is harshly judged on his Scandinavian form) & Handsome Man who has been disappointing for a while now. Tenenbaum is another who has been disappointing since a decent first run for Godolphin in last year's Nad Al Sheba Trophy so he has it to prove whereas Statutory looked a typical Mark Johnston improving stayer at the end of last season when stepped up to 2 miles & beyond, Thursday looks a pipe opener for better races to come as he really came into his own over further towards the end of last season looking like a thorough stayer as he did when winning over the stiff 2m2f at Pontefract on his last start. The only question mark I have over him is the one I have on all Mark Johnston runners who transfer to Godolphin & that is...... not all of them go on.

Fan of Excellent Result 9/2 WIN Skybet / BetVictor / Paddy Power / William Hill & confident he can win this from Star Empire, Certerach & Manalapan

The big race of night is The 2nd Round of The Al Maktoum Challenge Group 2 run over 9.5f on Tapeta, this year's renewal looks well up to standard. 

Zahee: Understandable he steps up but this looks too tough for this talented but quirky individual.

Dunaden: (see photo) 2011 Melbourne Cup winner who has been a model of consistency in the Top races worldwide for a number of years now, this is his Dubai debut at the age of 8 over a trip he has not raced over since his days in Germany as a 3 year old. Clearly a pipe opener for bigger tests to come for the admirable old boy.

Interpret: Jebel Ali Stakes winner last month but this is a huge step up.

Empire Storm: Got a stonking ride from Kieran Fallon in the first leg who has been claimed by Godolphin in this race. Can't see him repeating that in arguably a better race.

Zain Shamardal: Good local handicapper who is outclassed in this as he was last year.

Zambucca: Showed nothing on UAE debut last week although his form does tie in with the Al Rashidiya winner Mujaarib. Will probably come to quick though.

Prince Bishop: Consistent old horse who likes AW surfaces so could go well at a price.

Hunter's Light: (see photo) Won this race convincingly last season beating Surfer & Prince Bishop before bolting up in the final round, disappointed in the World Cup & ran ok throughout his Worldwide campaign ending with an honourable 4th behind Farhh in The Champion Stakes. William Buick has a very decent spare ride, reports are that he has been working very well.

Heavy Metal: (see photo) Durban July winner who ran just ok on his UAE debut admittedly over a trip short of his best I still think he will need to improve to be involved.

Samurai Sword: Still improving but this a tough ask.

Battle Of Marengo: (see video winning Ballysax) Let go by Ballydoyle which to me is always a sign they don't believe the horse can go on. I have always liked him but I really would rather watch & see how he gets on first.

African Story: (see photo) Didn't reappear until last year's Burj Nahaar (won) before running a fine race in the World Cup, is reportedly in much better form this year hence why he has made the track earlier & is extremely well fancied for this race even though the draw is not ideal, from my stable source he is there number 1 hope for the World Cup.

Artigiano: (see photo) This big bull of horse ran a lovely comeback race behind Mushreq on the first night, he has been given plenty of time unlike some of the other returning Godolphin runners. He should stay fine but I am worried if he is a little keen as he was on his return that the wide draw will be a hindrance for this free going sort.

Mutajare: Excelled himself in a handicap recently but is well outclassed in this.

Surfer: Good local horse who was 2nd in this race last year when he received an excellent ride from Richard Mullen, it will need another one to see him involved on Thursday.

Prince Alzain: (see photo) Car Park draw widest of all on his UAE debut, formerly with Gerard Butler he Won the Churchill Stakes in good style last November but has been well beaten by Prince Bishop & Hunter's Light in the past so I can't see him being good enough.

I don't have a strong opinion on this race for all it is a cracking event but on what I've been hearing I would put it between the Godolphin duo of Hunter's Light & African Story 

A maximum field of 16 got to post in the last event of the night a 1 mile Turf handicap featuring a host a familiar names who in the majority look out of form. I can't have Dux Scholar (despite his class he has been running appalling), Mufarrh, Le Drakkar, Muraweg, Derbaas, Ocean Tempest, Mont Ras, Alhebayeb or Gold Pearl. 

That leaves 8 to look at, the ex Brazilian Edu Querido was 2nd in a Grade 1 in his native country last time & has his first start for Marco Botti, he is best watched. 

Chil The Kite had no chance last time from his draw & how the race was run, he finished ok & this must represent a good chance of getting some money. 

Spoil The Fun has an awful draw which is a shame as I thought he ran pretty well last time so he has chances if he can cope with the draw. Disa Leader was beaten by half a length in a blanket finish last time out & will remain competitive from another terrible draw. Stablemate El Estruendoso was just caught by Gabrial last time out, it was a solid effort looking like Turf is what he wants from a good draw he should go close in this. 

Avon Pearl (see photo) is one of the few Scandinavian horses to have been given a chance by the handicapper, he won a Swedish Open Mile Listed race at Taby last year (see photo) & as a 2 year old for Henry Candy finished 3 lengths 2nd when favourite to the ill fated Harbour Watch. 

Banna Boirche has been a regular at the Carnival over the last few seasons but not yet a winner, this could be his race as it lacks depth & this consistent animal deserves a win. 

Another race in which I don't see a bet but I do think the Scandinavian Avon Pearl 33/1 E/W could go well with the race most likely going to El Estruendoso. 

@fttfracing