Saturday 10th May 2014 (Ascot, Lingfield)

Hello & welcome along to my blog for what looks a competitive day's racing, all eyes of course will be on the Scoop6 which will be an estimated £7.5 million...imagine winning that?

Of course Betfred boss Fred Done is not going to make winning it easy & with the 29 runner Victoria Cup likely to be the final leg whoever gets anywhere near winning it will have done very well. I  have come close personally on 3 occasions but have been more than happy to settle for the place fund which I will be aiming for again on Saturday.

Ascot is the main feature meeting of the day & I will most likely be attending what looks a cracking card. 

It rained for the majority of the day yesterday changing the ground to good to soft in places, a dry day is in prospect throughout today (there have been a couple of small showers) day so the ground should be riding dead for this evening's card at Ascot, heavy rain is expected throughout the early hours & Saturday day so I would still expect the ground to be on the softer side of good by racing tomorrow afternoon.

Ascot's card opens with a tight looking 1m4f handicap in which Godolphin saddle two runners, Restraint Of Trade ran no sort of race in Dubai after a long absence & looks quite harshly judged by the handicapper given his long absence previously, he beat last year's Gordon Stakes winner Cap O'Rushes in the 2012 Zetland Conditions Stakes which would be the reason he is rated so highly, ground has come for him. He can only really be watched from the Charlie Appleby stable who have had just 6 winners so far this campaign with many of the stables runners disappointing. 

Al Saham is from Saeed Bin Suroor's branch of Godolphin, he has had just 7 winners but from much fewer runners. Al Saham is probably still in the handicappers grip & usually needs a run to get him spot on. 

Swing Alone is too high in the handicap while Semeen will most likely be pulled out due to the ground like he was at Epsom. Hamelin is improving & on the hat trick, he should have enough to cope with his slight rise in the weights.

Rhombus starts the season on a nice mark after showing improved form last year, he was disappointing when favourite for the November Handicap when last seen, stable is going well. Glorious Protector should give Hamelin most to do his mark is workable & he acts on cut, he looks just the type to make a decent 4yo handicapper.

The Lock Master has had a good winter but he is not as good on turf whereas Aazif would need better ground from what looks a nice mark judged by his hurdling exploits.

Too tight a race to be betting in for my liking.

The Listed Buckhounds Stakes has been dominated by Roger Varian & John Gosden in recent years, this year only one of them fields a runner & that is Johnny G in the shape of his classy Gatewood who two seasons ago looked to be progressing into a real force but after an abortive trip down under just didn't suit him he returned late last season & has not really looked as good despite being very consistent. Ground conditions should be ok for him on Saturday & with Frankie on board he looks to have a live chance.

Pether's Moon beat Gatewood comfortably in a Listed race at Kempton last November when he was receiving 7lbs now the tables are turned & he is giving away 3lbs, he ran really well last Saturday behind Gospel Choir but he had the run of the race & I would like to see him repeat that giving weight away to useful rivals.

Area Fifty One beat Gatewood at Doncaster first time out this year but he was fit from hurdling so I would expect Gatewood to turn that round especially as Area Fifty One is not up to Listed class. Buckwheat was disappointing in Dubai & needs to show something on his UK debut, Cap O'Rushes his stablemate ran a shocking race when I fancied him in last year's St Leger, before that he had been quite progressive winning the Gordon at Goodwood. Softening of the ground will be fine for him & he should hopefully progress into a useful 4yo, however his stable form worries me & I can see him needing this.

Continuum ran a excellent race on his first start for Peter Hedger at Nottingham form that is working out (Mighty Yar won the other day), he travelled well for a long way before getting tired, on his form last year he wouldn't have to improve much to be involved.

Elidor has shown good handicap form & was well weighted when winning first time up at Thirsk this year, this requires another step forward.

Harris Tweed was very disappointing the other week in the Sagaro going off too fast, he makes little appeal back over 1m4f after that run. Kelinni makes his UK debut for Marco Botti after spending all his career in Australia, he was 4th in a Melbourne Cup in 2012 & won a Listed event at Randwick on heavy last April, since then he has been out of form so he can only be watched in this. Cocktail Queen is again overfaced in the search for black type.

All the form lines point to Gatewood regaining the winning thread. (WON)

The fillies handicap looks set up for Ribbons a most progressive filly last year, she ran well on her seasonal debut at Kempton last month. Feedyah is the danger after some good runs behind Ihtimal in Dubai, she has also won at Ascot as a 2yo, the issue again is her stables form. Amulet for the in form Eve Johnson Houghton stable can be given some sort of a chance from an ok mark.

Ribbons should win but I will not be getting involved financially. 

So to the main event on Ascot's card the Victoria Cup over the straight 7f, in recent years 4 & 5yo's have dominated with 3 apiece but the last 2 running's have gone to horses aged 7 & 6. A rigid weight range between 8-5 - 8-12 has produced all the recent winners.

Low drawn horses have produced 4 winners in 8 years. 

Middle drawn horses have produced 3 winners in 8 years

& there has only been one winner drawn high (29) in the last 8 running's.

Captain Raimus: too much weight but a useful draw, runs well in these big handicaps but not win material.

Bertiewhittle: Does deserve a big handicap but for all he is consistent always finds a couple too good.

Heaven's Guest: Shown little at sprint trips so far this term, this more his bag but weighted accordingly.

Gabriel's Lad: Definitely has one of these in him but not from his high draw.

Belgian Bill: Hunt Cup winner last year, always respected but drawn high enough.

Glen Moss: In the form of his life this year, won impressively last time & has risen to a career high mark, likes to be on the pace which will be tough in this however you cannot rule out given his good form. Could easily toe the high drawn horses into contention.

Pastoral Player: On a very attractive mark & likely that this will have been his target, ground no issue so is a real threat.

Don't Bother Me: Lot to like about this horses UK debut behind Glen Moss last time at Haydock, quite short of room at one stage before snatching 4th, Talented claimer takes 5lb off which puts him on a great weight, definite player.

Loving Spirit: Regular in these big handicaps but rarely wins.

Georgian Bay: Has a verdict over Glen Moss this term when he was race fit, closely matched now & work to do from an in-form stable.

Louis The Pious: Fast finishing 2nd to Glen Moss last time, can't see him confirming form with 4th placed Don't Bother Me though. 

Flyman: Much higher than when easily winning on seasonal debut, remains with potential even with his rise in the weights.

Purcell: Won two uncompetitive AWT handicaps early this year, much higher mark & better grade to contend with here, think he's a false favourite.

Redvers: Can never discount him in these big Ascot handicaps but any softening of the ground is an issue for him.

Ayaar: In behind both Georgian Bay & Glen Moss last but much better off at the weights this time around, still looks slightly high for me though & the draw is no help.

Excellent Guest: Last year's winner, higher now which should scupper any repeat bid for this big handicap specialist.

Bronze Angel: On his Cambridgeshire winning mark of 2 years ago, not been in the same form since but seasonal debut offered hope & will bring him on for this, could well be involved from a useful draw.

Don't Call Me: Yet another with big handicap form at Ascot, offered little on his most recent start but is very close to his last winning mark & is another to add into the mix.

Burn The Boats: Disappointing so far on his two forays into this country & looks quite high on what he's achieved.

Frontier Fighter: Well beaten at Chester yesterday, looks to have a job on turned out quickly.

Tellovoi: Only length behind the long time favourite for this Horsted Keynes at Yarmouth last time, been in great form but this is much tougher.

Gramercy: If he was anywhere near the form if his younger days where he had good Ascot form including a 2nd to Smarty Socks in a handicap here a few years back he would be of real interest but he is very in & out now showing nothing on his return.

Brownsea Brink: Will sure to be popular after his run in The Spring Mile last time & has a big turnaround in the weights with Purcell but I didn't like the way he wouldn't go through with his effort at Newbury so he wouldn't be for me.

Dubawi Sound: Long been thought of as a big handicap winner for previous connections, now with Hugo Palmer & has shown little in two starts so far.

Spiritual Star: Good AWT form but this is much harder.

Boots And Spurs: Could be given some sort of chance with his riding taking a further 3lbs off his back, has been competitive from this kind of mark before.

Capo Rosso: Pulled out of Chester on Friday due to the ground so any appreciable softening at Ascot is a worry for him.

Sound Advice: Improved during the winter but exposed last time.

Ruwaiyan: Hacked up at Thirsk last week, has been hit hard by the handicapper but he would have won with a extra 2 stone on his back so he should cope with an extra 10lbs on his back, cannot discount on that form.

An excellent renewal of this great handicap, Don't Bother Me 16/1 went into my tracker after his last run & everything looks in place for a big run here.  

It's Derby & Oaks Trial day down at Lingfield; Starting with The Oaks Trial it has produced 5 winners Juliette Marnay in 1975, User Friendly in 1992, Lady Carla 1996, Ramruna in 1999, Look Here who was runner up at Lingfield in 2008 but then went onto win at Epsom. Midday who won in 2009 went onto become a 6 time Group 1 winner including 3 x Nassau Stakes. Alysia of course did the Lingfield Oaks Trial / Epsom Double in 1989 but was disqualified after a doping scandal. Several Oak Trials winners have gone onto be placed at Epsom including last year's winner Secret Gesture who was 3rd & Crown Of Light who was 3rd in 1997.

This year's race has attracted a field of 11, Casual Smile tops them she is by Derby winner Sea The Stars out of Oaks winner Casual Look so is bred to pretty good, she is still a maiden after 3 starts but has run well on each occasion including on her last start behind current Oaks hotpot Taghrooda, previous to that she had finished 3rd in a blanket finish for a 4 runner conditions event at Ascot which would not have suited her. This trip is made for her & I fully expect her to win this before going to Epsom.
(Seen in the green colours & noseband on the inside of Taghrooda)

Criteria was behind Casual Smile at Newmarket last year, she has been out twice this term finishing behind Inchila at Newbury before winning last time, I feel she has less scope than Casual Smile. Isabella Beeton, Island Remede, Mutatis Mutandis & Stealth Missile are outclassed on all known form.

Ralph Beckett who has now won two Oaks saddles 3 runners here Honour Bound needs to improve on what she has done so far, Kallisha won nicely on debut at Sandown when the money was down, the ground came for this daughter of Whipper that day, she would need rain judging by her action. Moonrise Landing however showed a good attitude staying on nicely on the AWT here last time to gain what looked a surprise first time out win she is not yet in the Oaks but she is open to any amount of improvement.

Momentus is bred to be ok & ran well in her only start last year at Newcastle but this is a big ask for this Oaks entry after just the one start. Queen's Prize represents her majesty & is in the Oaks, she won a average Kempton maiden last September form of which is not working out, She is bred for this distance but the majority of Sir Michael 's have run as if in need of a run so far this season.

I am a fan of Casual Smile & I expect her to step up this season. The 33/1 available on her for the Oaks looks worth taking now in the hope that she wins well tomorrow.

The Derby Trial has produced 6 Derby winners; April The Fifth 1932, Mid-Day Sun 1937, Parthia 1959, Slip Anchor 1985, Kahyasi 1988 & High-Rise 1998.

Plus 3 Derby runners up in recent years Main Sequence in 2012, Silver Patriarch in 1999, Cacoethes in 1989 & Teenoso in 1983.  

Aidan O'Brien has won 3 out of the last 6 running's, this year he fields Mekong River & Blue Hussar; Mekong River was 4th in Group 1 company on bad ground at Saint Cloud one place behind Hartnell who re-opposes on Saturday, on breeding he is not guaranteed to get this distance especially with a penalty. His stablemate Blue Hussar won comfortably on his debut last year going away at the finish, stepped up in trip he could be anything.

Double Bluff ran an excellent seasonal debut when easily beaten by Western Hymn the further he goes the better he will be, others may be a little speedier. 

Hartnell his stablemate looked to have a good chance at Epsom the other week but never really travelled, he has grown into a smart looking horse & can be given another chance with that run behind him. 

Munjaz needed all of the 10f in his maiden win at Newmarket last time, highly regarded it would be no surprise if he stepped up again on that although his stable is not as red hot as they were a month ago.

Red Galileo was disappointing at Sandown when he looked fit enough to do himself justice but I can forgive that as the ground was quite tiring by his race, his form is not really standing up though.

Signposted was in the blanket finish at Epsom last time but lacks the quality of some of these. If the rain hits Lingfield then you would fancy Snow Sky who was a fast finishing 2nd behind Western Hymn at Newbury just finishing in front of Double Bluff, the further step up will suit, he has shown his best form on soft ground so if the rain comes then his chance is enhanced. Sudden Wonder was one of the few better class Charlie Appleby runners to have won first time out, he showed admirable battling qualities & the step up will suit, he has form on a softer surface so is another nice horse in what looks a very decent renewal.

A renewal that looks well above the normal standard for this race in which I believe Sudden Wonder's battling qualities will stand in him good stead. 

Later on in the Lingfield card, I think Soviet Rock could be one of the bets of the day, he has developed into a decent stamp of a horse & ran an excellent race on his return in the City & Suburban at Epsom a race that has already produced Tres Coronas to win at Chester this week, he goes in the 15:25 down at Leafy & would be my NAP of the day. (WON)

@fttfracing