Well so far its been one of those weeks placed horses who so nearly won the first 2 days then 2 abysmal bets yesterday, thats the luck of the draw in this game so we try again today.
Day 4 kicks off with an older horse Group 3 which has grown in stature over the years, Luca Cumani has an excellent record in the last 10 years with 4 winners & 7 in total. Horses with their sights set on Melbourne in November usually run here as it fits nicely into the schedule & this year is no exception.
Most attention however will be on the returning Encke who has been off for 685 days since he prevented Camelot from winning the Triple Crown in The St Leger in 2012. Obviously most of his absence last year was forced due to his former trainer's indiscrepancies but the decision was taken early that he would be not be rushed back last year or risked in Dubai as he would not have been suited by the style of racing out there. He has had a few niggles which have kept him off the extra time but he has developed into a fabulous looking animal. (first horse in picture below)
His work has been excellent over the last few months & he has shown that he retains the old sparkle but as with any return you never know until he gets back on a racecourse, also similar horses who have come back from the ban trained by Charlie Appleby this year have needed there first 2 or 3 runs (Steeler, Artigiano) although 1 high profile horse Certify did win first time out. It will be fascinating to see how he gets on.
Godolphin also saddle the useful Songcraft who was 4th in 2012, he looked better than ever at the start of the year in Meydan & if ready to roll he can get competitive.
Quest For Peace returns to our shores after an unsuccessful year down under where he was known as My Quest For Peace, before he left he won this race in good style in 2012. On his Australian running last year he has no chance so it will be interesting to see how he gets on.
Aussie Reigns has been struggling in handicaps due to his consistency so far this year in the UK & earlier in Dubai, he steps up here & looks set to struggle.
Battle Of Marengo ran appalling once more at Newbury 2 weeks ago & looks to have regressed badly since leaving Aidan O'Brien.
Cafe Society remains in the care of David Simcock after being registered to run for Gai Waterhouse at Ascot, he didn't get the clearest of runs that day & was finishing well, the horse has latent ability which as a 4yo is starting to come through hence why he was bought by Australian connections. Doesn't have much to find & could easily take this before heading on his Australian adventure.
Pether's Moon is consistent & at the same consistent in finding at least 1 or 2 too good. Has the ability but I have not been impressed by his finishing effort this season.
Hillstar should really hold all the aces in this after 3 2nd places so far this season, I wasn't enamored by him last time as like Pether's Moon he didn't really seem keen to go through with it & despite the rain it wouldn't have been soft as it was at the start of the meeting so that was not the excuse, looks beatable & worth taking on.
Day 4 kicks off with an older horse Group 3 which has grown in stature over the years, Luca Cumani has an excellent record in the last 10 years with 4 winners & 7 in total. Horses with their sights set on Melbourne in November usually run here as it fits nicely into the schedule & this year is no exception.
Most attention however will be on the returning Encke who has been off for 685 days since he prevented Camelot from winning the Triple Crown in The St Leger in 2012. Obviously most of his absence last year was forced due to his former trainer's indiscrepancies but the decision was taken early that he would be not be rushed back last year or risked in Dubai as he would not have been suited by the style of racing out there. He has had a few niggles which have kept him off the extra time but he has developed into a fabulous looking animal. (first horse in picture below)
His work has been excellent over the last few months & he has shown that he retains the old sparkle but as with any return you never know until he gets back on a racecourse, also similar horses who have come back from the ban trained by Charlie Appleby this year have needed there first 2 or 3 runs (Steeler, Artigiano) although 1 high profile horse Certify did win first time out. It will be fascinating to see how he gets on.
Godolphin also saddle the useful Songcraft who was 4th in 2012, he looked better than ever at the start of the year in Meydan & if ready to roll he can get competitive.
Quest For Peace returns to our shores after an unsuccessful year down under where he was known as My Quest For Peace, before he left he won this race in good style in 2012. On his Australian running last year he has no chance so it will be interesting to see how he gets on.
Aussie Reigns has been struggling in handicaps due to his consistency so far this year in the UK & earlier in Dubai, he steps up here & looks set to struggle.
Battle Of Marengo ran appalling once more at Newbury 2 weeks ago & looks to have regressed badly since leaving Aidan O'Brien.
Cafe Society remains in the care of David Simcock after being registered to run for Gai Waterhouse at Ascot, he didn't get the clearest of runs that day & was finishing well, the horse has latent ability which as a 4yo is starting to come through hence why he was bought by Australian connections. Doesn't have much to find & could easily take this before heading on his Australian adventure.
Pether's Moon is consistent & at the same consistent in finding at least 1 or 2 too good. Has the ability but I have not been impressed by his finishing effort this season.
Cafe Society at 10/1 E/W Bet365 is the improver for me & looks well worth backing.
8 decent runners face the starter in a Group 3 over a mile for 3yo's next.
The Hannon stable have won 3 of the last 10 renewals.
Brian Meehan & Mark Johnston have won 2 in the last 10 years.
This year's renewal looks right up to scratch, heading them is Bow Creek who ran a mighty race in the Britannia only just getting collared late on, he is well up to this class & must be respected.
Hors De Combat was just behind Bow Creek in the Britannia from a less clear run, he looks the type to make the switch from handicaps to pattern company & has plenty more improvement left in him, big player.
Rapprochement was a hugely impressive maiden winner by 11 lengths 14 days ago at Newmarket in the hood, he is clearly smart but this is a big ask for one with so little experience, he should be up to the class as his half sister was a Listed & Group winner.
Shifting Power brings Group 1 Classic form into a Group 3, he was well ridden to gain a 5th (English Guineas) & 2nd in The Irish behind Kingman. He looked to have been found a good opportunity to win at Group 1 level last time in a average looking Jean Prat but pulled far too hard & did not get home eventually finishing 3rd but was promoted to 2nd after some interference. Better ground will help him but my nagging doubt remains does he stay the mile?? he has yet to prove he does, 5th in the Guineas at one pace, 5 lengths behind Kingman at the Curragh but well ridden to achieve that & a dour performance at 7f beating a horse who barely gets 6f gives me reason to believe he is worth taking on.
Wannabe Yours has progressed rapidly this season winning as he liked last time although the soft ground exaggerated that winning performance, he needs to show he can do it on faster ground in this class so I would rather leave alone.
My favourite horse in training What About Carlo steps into Group company for the first time & drops back to the mile at the same time which should be fine for him, I think he ran fine from his new mark last time in a handicapped that was decimated by N/R's at Newmarket last time due to the rain that fell, he was disadvantaged by running in the centre of the track away from the stands side rail that proved so advantageous. He is a course & distance winner with fast ground fine for him in fact I believe it will improve him, should get a decent pace to aim at & I believe he must go very close in this. Ryan Moore should suit him perfectly.
Windfast has been running well so far this season since a return from a long absence, trainer is in good form & he has a good recent record in this race. Horse should stay the mile but I am slightly concerned that he may not stay ity as well as his rivals & that 7f is his best trip.
Hors De Combat was just behind Bow Creek in the Britannia from a less clear run, he looks the type to make the switch from handicaps to pattern company & has plenty more improvement left in him, big player.
Rapprochement was a hugely impressive maiden winner by 11 lengths 14 days ago at Newmarket in the hood, he is clearly smart but this is a big ask for one with so little experience, he should be up to the class as his half sister was a Listed & Group winner.
Shifting Power brings Group 1 Classic form into a Group 3, he was well ridden to gain a 5th (English Guineas) & 2nd in The Irish behind Kingman. He looked to have been found a good opportunity to win at Group 1 level last time in a average looking Jean Prat but pulled far too hard & did not get home eventually finishing 3rd but was promoted to 2nd after some interference. Better ground will help him but my nagging doubt remains does he stay the mile?? he has yet to prove he does, 5th in the Guineas at one pace, 5 lengths behind Kingman at the Curragh but well ridden to achieve that & a dour performance at 7f beating a horse who barely gets 6f gives me reason to believe he is worth taking on.
Wannabe Yours has progressed rapidly this season winning as he liked last time although the soft ground exaggerated that winning performance, he needs to show he can do it on faster ground in this class so I would rather leave alone.
Windfast has been running well so far this season since a return from a long absence, trainer is in good form & he has a good recent record in this race. Horse should stay the mile but I am slightly concerned that he may not stay ity as well as his rivals & that 7f is his best trip.
Well now What About Carlo has been declared a N/R I will switch to the improving Hors De Combat 6/1 generally available.
The big mile betting race of the week is up next;
4 x 3yo's have won in the last 10 years.
(4 in the last 6 years).
4 x 4yo's have won in the last 10 years.
1 x 5yo has won in the last 10 years.
1 x 6yo has won in the last 10 years.
Mark Johnston has trained 3 winners in the last 10 years.
Roger Charlton has trained 2 winners in the last 10 years.
8 of the last 10 winners started at single figure odds between 5/2 - 7/1.
Weight: 8-10 - 9-3
Captain Cat has inherited top weight & has a huge job on on his first start since April. A classy individual who will need to be right at his best to win carrying 9-10.
Steeler showed the fires still burned with a huge run in 3rd in the Royal Hunt Cup, very classy at his best he has a wide draw to overcome which as a front runner he should be capable & if he reproduces his Ascot run should be involved.
Horsted Keynes never got involved on Saturday & is back out quickly which wouldn't be ideal for a horse who has been lightly raced.
Stablemates Boomshackerlacker & Belgian Bill are consistent enough but hard to predict at the same time, I expected Belgian Bill to win last weekend as did the masses backing him into 6/1f but he never got involved, connections fire him back out again which suggests they would like to recoup their losses so is another for the shortlist. Boomshackerlacker was 2nd in a minor Listed race at Vichy 7 days ago, he is talented but better on softer ground.
Heaven's Guest remained in form with a great 4th on Saturday so is another to consider although the mile could be problematique.
Two For Two has never won from a mark this high & is passed over.
Pastoral Player is awfully well handicapped at present, forget Saturday's run he got worked up & the race didn't pan out, previously he had run a cracker when stuck on the far side in The Buckingham Palace. He has no problems with the mile ran as he almost won a Group 2 at Ascot over that trip 2 years ago, could give his young rider a great ride.
Velox is the sexy horse in this race, on the up & improving sharply, Cam Hardie's claim made a huge difference last time when he bolted up & he will need more again from his new mark in a top quality handicap. Magic City is on his last winning mark & showed a bit more spark last time, dual course & distance winner who is respected.
Bronze Angel finally got back in the winners enclosure at York 2 starts ago but never got involved on Saturday, still on a decent mark on old form he needs to bounce back again. Heavy Metal caused a huge shock on Saturday, he has rediscovered himself this year after a year in the doldrums so is one to keep on side now he has conquered a big handicap especially on a course that was previously the scene of his biggest win at 2.
George Guru has some good course form & has been in form most of this season, one of the bigger priced ones who could hit the frame.
Russian Realm looked like his new mark had the measure of him last time out & needs some luck in a race of this nature which wasn't forthcoming when he last tried this kind of handicap. Red Avenger is blinkered for the first time which is a positive, he has been running well in behind in some big handicaps on his last couple of starts, a return to this kind of unconventional track could suit as 2 of his best runs have come here at Goodwood last year & Epsom earlier this year, chances.
Fort Bastion has remained in form throughout this year although his new mark does just seem to have him. Capo Rosso has been well beaten on his last 2 starts & needs much more here. Our Channel is the sole 3yo this year, he showed the ability to handle a turning downhill track when winning at Epsom in April, after an abortive run in The Derby he then crossed the pond to Arlington for the American Derby Grade 3 finishing half a length 2nd. More to do in this first venture into a handicap but should be considered at a big price.Chosen Character until tackling Listed company last time had been in very good form in handicaps, with the assistance of the very decent young Jenny Powell he would not be a ridiculous shout as he travels well & has a turn of foot.
Askaud is a game mare who rarely runs a bad race, course form is good but does need more in this grade.
Tricky race, I have about 4 or 5 who I could back but will rather watch than invest.
The older sprinters will be flying down the Goodwood straight in the next;
Caspian Prince deservedly steps up in grade after a stellar season so far with wins in The Dash at Epsom & an excellent 2nd in The Rockingham at The Curragh the other week. There are few faster than him in this field & he is respected given his current mood.
.jpg)
Hamza's connections reach for the visor in a bid to turn around his fortunes, ever since making the breakthrough at Group level at the start of the year he has struggled, could easily bounce back but you couldn't be confident.
Kingsgate Native keeps acquitting himself well this year but is always running into a younger quicker horse, similar fate awaits here.
Monsieur Joe has been running well in good handicaps but that is his level now & he will struggle. Moviesta has had an interrupted campaign, he returns to the scene of his biggest success in this race last year, ground has come for him for the first time in the last 2 starts & he must go well. Stepper Point is decent but for every good race he runs a relatively poor race, just not quite classy enough to convert those good runs into wins in Group races so he is more of place bet than a win selection.
Take Cover is well thought of by connections & duly obliged from the front in a Listed race that to be truthful fell apart last time due to N/R's, he will need more from the front but he is lightly raced for a 7yo so there could be more to come.
Tropics bounced right back to his best with a storming run in The July Cup last time out where the rain softened ground appeared to help, work to do on his first start at 5f. Brown Sugar is making his belated seasonal debut in a hot race, this is a big ask even allowing for last year's win in The Molecomb. Demora is a improved 5yo mare who ran as well as ever under top weight in a good Ascot handicap last time, versatile regarding ground she should be involved especially considering fillies have an excellent record in this over the years winning 11 renewals since 1993 (4 in the last 10 years). Extortionist has really got the hang of things recently & was a dominant winner of The Charge at Sandown last time beating most of these, has had a little break since those 3 quick runs at the end of June beginning of July & if in the same form will be tough to beat.
G Force has a big reputation & was inconvenienced by being hit over the head by Take Cover's riders whip in the closing stages last time, he did dwell in the stalls that day though which he will not get away with here.
Ladies Are Forever won her 3rd Summer Stakes last time at York with an excellent performance, she was 5th in this last year when she didn't get the best of runs. Could easily get involved. Hay Chewed had been steadily improving until stepping up in grade last time in the charge, she was well beat in the end behind most of these & has work to do to get involved. Reroute ran ok behind Take Cover last time but dropped away towards the finish & will struggle to get involved in this.
Wind Fire often looks unlucky in her races but in truth she just looks the type who cannot cope with better grade races & I could not fancy her in this.
Cracking race in which I am struggling to nail my colours to one horse so will leave alone.
One of my naps of the meeting runs in the 7f fillies Group 3 the unbeaten Muteela will be extremely hard to beat from the front, she showed courage & tenacity when making all last time in The Sandringham & can take this step up in grade in her stride.
Indignant is a useful filly but not pattern class with similar comments applied to The Gold Cheongsam who did at least come back to form last week.
J Wonder has been disappointing in a better grade on her last 2 starts so will appreciate the drop in class but faces fillies on the up here.
Evita Peron has shown good form in her 4 starts this season winning in Listed company at Newmarket last time, the ground looked to aid her that day & it will be much faster on Friday for this big filly.
Manderley ran above herself in the Guineas earlier in the year but was put in her place last time. Queen Catrine only just failed to catch Muteela at Ascot, she was primed for that run & duly disappointed next time which is the general look of her overall profile. French raider This Time was beaten when a strong favourite in an ordinary Listed race last time out after outrunning her big odds when 6th in The French Guineas, probably not up to this judged on that last run. Valonia is not good enough on what she has shown & is a doubtful stayer. Wee Jean benefited from a extremely good front running ride last time to finish 2nd in a Listed race at Sandown previous to that she was a good 3rd behind Muteela at Ascot should reach a place once more.
Muteela 3/1 is a confident selection.
Stablemates Boomshackerlacker & Belgian Bill are consistent enough but hard to predict at the same time, I expected Belgian Bill to win last weekend as did the masses backing him into 6/1f but he never got involved, connections fire him back out again which suggests they would like to recoup their losses so is another for the shortlist. Boomshackerlacker was 2nd in a minor Listed race at Vichy 7 days ago, he is talented but better on softer ground.
Heaven's Guest remained in form with a great 4th on Saturday so is another to consider although the mile could be problematique.
Two For Two has never won from a mark this high & is passed over.
Pastoral Player is awfully well handicapped at present, forget Saturday's run he got worked up & the race didn't pan out, previously he had run a cracker when stuck on the far side in The Buckingham Palace. He has no problems with the mile ran as he almost won a Group 2 at Ascot over that trip 2 years ago, could give his young rider a great ride.
Velox is the sexy horse in this race, on the up & improving sharply, Cam Hardie's claim made a huge difference last time when he bolted up & he will need more again from his new mark in a top quality handicap. Magic City is on his last winning mark & showed a bit more spark last time, dual course & distance winner who is respected.
Bronze Angel finally got back in the winners enclosure at York 2 starts ago but never got involved on Saturday, still on a decent mark on old form he needs to bounce back again. Heavy Metal caused a huge shock on Saturday, he has rediscovered himself this year after a year in the doldrums so is one to keep on side now he has conquered a big handicap especially on a course that was previously the scene of his biggest win at 2.
George Guru has some good course form & has been in form most of this season, one of the bigger priced ones who could hit the frame.
Fort Bastion has remained in form throughout this year although his new mark does just seem to have him. Capo Rosso has been well beaten on his last 2 starts & needs much more here. Our Channel is the sole 3yo this year, he showed the ability to handle a turning downhill track when winning at Epsom in April, after an abortive run in The Derby he then crossed the pond to Arlington for the American Derby Grade 3 finishing half a length 2nd. More to do in this first venture into a handicap but should be considered at a big price.
Askaud is a game mare who rarely runs a bad race, course form is good but does need more in this grade.
Tricky race, I have about 4 or 5 who I could back but will rather watch than invest.
The older sprinters will be flying down the Goodwood straight in the next;
Caspian Prince deservedly steps up in grade after a stellar season so far with wins in The Dash at Epsom & an excellent 2nd in The Rockingham at The Curragh the other week. There are few faster than him in this field & he is respected given his current mood.
Hamza's connections reach for the visor in a bid to turn around his fortunes, ever since making the breakthrough at Group level at the start of the year he has struggled, could easily bounce back but you couldn't be confident.
Kingsgate Native keeps acquitting himself well this year but is always running into a younger quicker horse, similar fate awaits here.
Monsieur Joe has been running well in good handicaps but that is his level now & he will struggle. Moviesta has had an interrupted campaign, he returns to the scene of his biggest success in this race last year, ground has come for him for the first time in the last 2 starts & he must go well. Stepper Point is decent but for every good race he runs a relatively poor race, just not quite classy enough to convert those good runs into wins in Group races so he is more of place bet than a win selection.
Take Cover is well thought of by connections & duly obliged from the front in a Listed race that to be truthful fell apart last time due to N/R's, he will need more from the front but he is lightly raced for a 7yo so there could be more to come.
G Force has a big reputation & was inconvenienced by being hit over the head by Take Cover's riders whip in the closing stages last time, he did dwell in the stalls that day though which he will not get away with here.
Ladies Are Forever won her 3rd Summer Stakes last time at York with an excellent performance, she was 5th in this last year when she didn't get the best of runs. Could easily get involved. Hay Chewed had been steadily improving until stepping up in grade last time in the charge, she was well beat in the end behind most of these & has work to do to get involved. Reroute ran ok behind Take Cover last time but dropped away towards the finish & will struggle to get involved in this.
Wind Fire often looks unlucky in her races but in truth she just looks the type who cannot cope with better grade races & I could not fancy her in this.
Cracking race in which I am struggling to nail my colours to one horse so will leave alone.
One of my naps of the meeting runs in the 7f fillies Group 3 the unbeaten Muteela will be extremely hard to beat from the front, she showed courage & tenacity when making all last time in The Sandringham & can take this step up in grade in her stride.
Indignant is a useful filly but not pattern class with similar comments applied to The Gold Cheongsam who did at least come back to form last week.
J Wonder has been disappointing in a better grade on her last 2 starts so will appreciate the drop in class but faces fillies on the up here.
Manderley ran above herself in the Guineas earlier in the year but was put in her place last time. Queen Catrine only just failed to catch Muteela at Ascot, she was primed for that run & duly disappointed next time which is the general look of her overall profile. French raider This Time was beaten when a strong favourite in an ordinary Listed race last time out after outrunning her big odds when 6th in The French Guineas, probably not up to this judged on that last run. Valonia is not good enough on what she has shown & is a doubtful stayer. Wee Jean benefited from a extremely good front running ride last time to finish 2nd in a Listed race at Sandown previous to that she was a good 3rd behind Muteela at Ascot should reach a place once more.
Muteela 3/1 is a confident selection.
@fttfracing
No comments:
Post a Comment