Hello & welcome along to my last blog of the week, i'll just say its been a trying week with many near misses & plenty of average runs from the horses I've backed but that's these big meetings in a nutshell especially exceedingly tough as well as brilliantly entertaining. Saturday is perhaps the hardest card of the week with 2 big 6f sprints The Stewards Cup & its consolation race plus what looks the weakest Group 1 Nassau Stakes in a good few years.
Opening up the card is the consolation race for the Stewards Cup packed with 28 runners, the race has some strong trends over the last 10 years:
Clive Cox has trained 3 winners in the last 10 years.
(Seeking Magic & dual winner Pearly Wey)
David Nicholls & Richard Fahey have each trained 2 winners in the last 10 years.
7 winners in the last 10 years have started at double figure odds (10/1 - 28/1).
No favourite has won in the last 10 years.
No horse has won in the last 10 years at odds of less than 8/1.
Weight: 9-0 - 9-10.
Draw: A mixed bag winners coming from all across the track, a cliche but usually where the pace is helps.
Rating: 82 - 94.
3 x 5yo's have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 4yo's have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 8yo's has won in the last 10 years.
1 x 6yo has won in the last 10 years.
1 x 7yo has won in the last 10 years.
1 x 9yo has won in the last 10 years.
Humidor has been struggling for years & won't be winning this from his mark.
Hopes N Dreams is a Hamilton Park specialist so Goodwood should hold no fears but has been done no favours by her consistency this year.
Confessional was 2nd in this in 2011 off a higher mark, running well recently so can be given a chance.
Secondo has only run twice this year & both starts have been disappointing, big ask on his current mark.
Barnet Fair so nearly won the race at Ascot last Sunday for a 2nd year running, cannot have the ground quick enough & if returning in the same mood as last Sunday must be feared although 6f is not his best trip.
Extrasolar has been in decent form on his last 3 starts but both his recent wins were in a much lower grade & he is up in the weights now in a better race.
Shore Step is a sizeable horse with plenty more to come, he has been running well so far this year winning last time, should be capable of getting involved.
Swiss Cross goes well on downhill courses & has a useful 5lbs taken off his back, unplaced 2 days ago but 5f is not his cup of tea so better can be expected at 6f off what is still a favourable mark.
El Viento is running into form with good runs at Windsor & Chester on his last 2 starts, he has been 7th & 5th in this in the last 2 years from similar marks, Stable won this race with Johannes twice a similar horse to El Viento & now under his last winning mark he must go very close from his high draw.
Englishman has been a talking horse ever since his 2yo days when he was expected to win The Coventry, injury has prevented him fulfilling his potential so far & was pulled out 2 days ago due to quickening ground. Very lightly raced & has been running well so far in lesser grade this season. Tatlisu has hit form on his last 3 starts & cannot be discounted from the same mark as when 2nd at Hamilton last time out.
Stepping Out has won her last 2 starts against fellow 3yo fillies but this another ball game entirely, much shorter in the betting than I expected.
Noble Deed looks held by the handicapper at the present time.
Old Regal Parade is still capable of running well at the age of 10 as he showed when a good 3rd at Epsom on his last start, fast ground is a concern as despite winning on it as a younger horse all his top form came with cut also his Goodwood record is no more than average. Even Stevens is too fast for his own good if we had 4f races in this country he would have won more races by now. Huntsmans Close is overall a disappointing horse & I cannot see him winning a race of this nature.
Mission Approved clearly has ability but does not always show the full amount on the racecourse hence his record.
Daylight's hat trick bid was foiled the other day dropping to an inadequate 5f, back at 6f he should be a contender given his current form.
Slip Sliding Away adores the 6f Goodwood course with 4 wins from 7 starts, he was another to have run on Day 1 in the 5f race a trip he has never won at, he was only beaten just under 5 lengths in 11th & even though he is on a career high mark he should not be discounted back up in trip with his excellent young jockey negating the rise in weight taking of 5lbs. Ladweb had been in flying form on his last few starts until catching a tartar in a 5 runner race at Leicester last time which would not have suited this horse who likes bigger fields, should be from this mark & can go well.
Shaolin is impossible to fancy for me from this sort of mark on Turf as all his wins have come on the AW. Pandar sprung a surprise earlier in the year when only a lb higher on this course, since then he has reverted to type & needs soft ground anyway.
Run With Pride remains unexposed after just 3 lifetime starts, clearly has lots more to come from this mark judged on those 3 runs & looks to have been aimed at this for while now, player. School Fees has only had the 1 run so far this term the other day a ok 4th at Epsom, this is much tougher than he's used to & is not for me.
Kinglami comes from the small stable of Brian Gubby who won this race a couple of years ago with the decent Son Of A Cat, Kinglami is not as good as him & has work to do with many of the runners in this field. Baby Strange has been a fantastic old boy over the years but age does appear to be catching up with him especially on this firm ground. The bottom 2 Eastern Dragon & Tidal's Bay would not be up to this sort of grade.
Quite like the chances of El Viento 20/1 Generally available E/W in this.
The 1m4f handicap for 3yo's looks a race stacked in potential & quality;
Double Bluff has run much better on his last 2 starts including last Sunday at Ascot behind Pallasator & must be considered due to the stables love affair & form at this meeting so far this week. This race revolves the talented but highly strung Kings Fete who did everything wrong on handicap debut at York last time but still won pulling a cart beating older horses, looked a group performer that day so its interesting that his master trainer sends him back into handicap company from what would appear a lenient 5lb higher mark sporting a first time hood.
Satellite has had a interesting career in just 3 starts already easily winning his maiden, tanking off in a good race at Newbury then being held up to finish a good 2nd at Doncaster, talented & should be involved.
Black Shadow has been aimed at this race since an excellent run behind What About Carlo at Epsom, the step up to 1m4f should be right up his street & he is a big danger to all for local trainer Amanda Perrett. Black Schnapps was progressive on soft ground at the start of the year but that progress has halted.
Second Step has won both his starts last time including a taking success in handicap company last time, the 2nd badly let the form down on Thursday night & I would be unsure about him on very fast ground.
Pack Leader a stablemate of Black Shadow had the run of the race when 2nd in what is normally a decent 3yo handicap at Salisbury last time, this requires more on what he has shown so far though. Adventure Seeker has been given a big rise in the weights after a useful win in a weak looking York handicap last time, another son of Dalakhani I again would be concerned about him on the fast ground given his run style.
Master Of Finance finished 3rd last time in the Swiss Derby after a good run in blustery conditions at Musselburgh the time before, as with any Johnston runner this week he cannot be discounted although he would need a career best.
Oasis Fantasy is a course & distance winner from a much lower mark back at the start of June, he followed that up with a decent 2nd in a good race for the grade at Ascot last time, bigger priced one with a chance. Smiling Stranger is a 4 race maiden who has been 2nd on his last 3 starts, outpointed over 10f at Newbury his mark has risen to 85 from an initial 82, he appeared laboured when tried over 12f in a weak Pontefract maiden when he was turned over at short odds the time before, looks like he could prove hard to place & would not be for me. Karraar is a 6 race maiden who looks tripless to me, cannot see him getting involved over 12f in this company.
Gaelic Heroine is all about stamina & has a nice mark to be staring off with, this is a tough race though. Fun Mac has been disappointing since readily disposing of a clearly below par Eagle Top at Leicester on seasonal debut, the soft ground looked against him at Haydock on his penultimate start. Last time out he was bitterly disappointing behind Second Step at Newbury finishing last, one would assume that there was some problem or another & that all is fine now. He looked a progressive sort at the start of the year & may still return to that form but you would be taking a chance, his excellent trainer is also having a relatively quiet year by his high standards.
Rainbow Rock is due to run again after an excellent run on Thursday behind his stablemate Lyn Valley, clearly now in the form of his life he cannot be discounted if turning out again over a trip he promises to stay. Norse Star would not be good enough on his current form.
Kings Fete looks like a proper horse & if the hood calms him down he will take all the beating, current price is very fair but Goodwood is a funny course for horses who are a bit highly strung so I will go for Black Shadow 14/1 E/W Skybet for local trainer Amanda Perrett.
Onwards to the Group 1 event for fillies & mares, the Nassau Stakes, now lets not beat around the bush it is an extremely poor renewal this time around but then we have been blessed by some great fillies over the last few years that have contested this race; The recently retired The Fugue in 2012, The fabulous Midday with 3 wins from '09 - '11, Peeping Fawn in '07, the tremendous duel that was Ouija Board Vs Alexander Goldrun in '06, Alexander Goldrun herself in '05, Russian Rhythm in '03, Islington in '02, Zahrat Dubai in '99, Alborada in '98 all the way back to the classy Ruby Tiger in '92 & '91.
5 x 3yo's have in the last 10 years.
3 x 4yo's have in the last 10 years.
2 x 5yo have won in the last 10 years.
John Gosden & Aidan O'Brien have won 2 apiece in the last 10 years.
Sir Michael Stoute has had 5 winners of this race in total.
The talented improving Mango Diva heads the field after a gritty win over the game 3yo Lahinch Classics in a 9f Group 2, that is her style more of a grinder than an explosive turn of foot which doesn't grab me & she looks vulnerable to anything with a bit of toe.
French raider Narniyn is a lightly raced 4yo who was last seen a staying on while flashing her tail in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint Cloud over 12f. So far she has won 2 10f Group 3's & a Listed event over very soft ground always just doing enough against extremely average opposition, in her 4 career wins to date only 3 horses that have finished behind her out of 27 have won another race Soccor Mom at 28/1 in July this year (finished 5th in 3yo Listed race Oct 13 to Narniyn), Alta Stima won at 40/1 backend Listed race Nov last year (finished 9th in 3yo Listed race Oct 13 to Narniyn) & Indigo Lady won 66/1 Listed race at Curragh in June this year (11th in that Listed event in October). All her form is with plenty of cut which you would expect in France but on breeding that is what she wants so the fast ground would be a huge concern.
Sultanina has done a lot in a short space of time maiden win, Group 3 win to one paced Group 3 2nd placing. Drop back in trip on run style looks strange but on breeding looks a good call as her Dam Soft Centre won at Goodwood over 10f in The Lupe back in '06 while her grandam Foodbroker Fancy also won the same Listed event at Goodwood in '01. She is closely related to Dalvina who won the Pretty Polly over 10f at Newmarket in '07 & recent 1 mile Listed placed Pretzel. On a negative slant she could do with some rain.
Venus De Milo brings the best form into the race after progressing quickly last summer she was a good 2nd in The Irish Oaks before a good 2nd to The Fugue at York, she was not seen again after disappointing in The Vermeille last backend. She reappeared over 1m6f when disappointing behind Missunited at the start of June before bouncing back by winning a Group 3 at Cork, her last run was another Group 1 2nd behind Thistle Bird in The Pretty Polly although to me she looked a little laboured as though 3 quick races in June were catching up with her.
Amazing Maria loves Goodwood with her 2 wins coming at the course as a 2yo, she swered the Guineas at the start of the year & then reappeared in the Oaks over a trip that was always going to stretch her she duly finished last. There has to be a doubt about 10f as well, her Dam barely got 6f, her half brother ran once & her American relatives got no further than a mile. If you dig deep enough back around 3 or 4 generations in her pedigree you can find Hugs Dancer who won 2 Goodwood Stakes over 2m5f in '01 & '02 plus a Chester Cup in '03 but he is a distant relation.
Eastern Belle is an interesting runner, she is on a steep upward curve after several good runs in maidens she finished 2 lengths 2nd to Marsh Daisy over course & distance on softer ground in The Height of Fashion proving that she stays 1m2f, she then went to Newbury in another 10f 3yo Listed event where she duly won in decent style from a filly who has been in good form this season Pelerin. That form does leave her with plenty to find but John Gosden won a much tougher renewal last year with a similar filly in Winsili. Eastern Belle is bred to be decent as she is from the family of Group 1 winner Rebecca Sharp, Group 3 winner Mystic Knight & Listed winner Hidden Hope.
Lustrous would not be up to Group 1 grade in a normal year, she won a Listed race at 20/1 on her 2nd start then somehow finished 2nd in The Ribblesdale yet failed to back that up in The Irish Oaks next time. Drop down in trip will suit but I still cannot see her winning.
Not the greatest Group 1 & I will be staying well away.
The big race of the day is the 6f Stewards Cup whoever may sponsor it.
A full field of 28 go to post in the bid for the prize down Goodwood's famous straight.
5 x 4yo have won in the last 10 years.
3 x 5yo have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 6yo have won in the last 10 years.
Weight: 8-11 - 9-7.
7 of the last 10 winners have carried 9st or above.
David Nicholls & Willie Haggas have trained 2 winners in the last 10 years.
3 x Joint favourites / co - favourites have won in the last 10 years.
5 x winners have started at single figure odds between 9/2 - 9/1.
5 x winners have started at double figure odds between 10/1 - 40/1.
Rating: 95 - 104
Draw: Middle to low
(taking into account the stall numbering change from 2011),
(4 winners being drawn 1 - 9)
(4 winners being drawn 9 - 17)
(2 winners drawn 17 -28)
(As with all sprint races pace is key so if you're drawn with all the pace it is an advantage.)
6 of the last 10 winners finished either 1st or 2nd on their last start.
Rex Imperator last year's winner heads the weights on 9-10 after carrying 9-4 to victory last season, a talented horse his wins to run ratio is poor & he has been knocking his head against a brick wall on his last 2 starts in Group 1 company. Lots to do back in a handicap this time around. York Glory was 20th carrying the same weight last season, he has looked out of sorts so far this campaign although he has yet to truly be put in a race, could go well from off the pace. Alben Star has run 2 excellent races recently staying on in The Wokingham & Rockingham handicaps, looks an ideal candidate for a race like this after those runs with his good claimer taking an extra 3lbs off. Wouldn't put anyone off him but might just find a couple better than him towards the end of the race.
Ashpan Sam has been in the form of his life this season although his new mark did appear to have caught up with him last time at Windsor, front runner from a high draw. Ruwaiyan ran well in a weak Group 3 on his first start at 6f last time, he had previously been improving quickly at 7f in handicaps, more on his plate from this sort of mark but a lively outsider. Shropshire makes his seasonal comeback in one of the hottest handicap sprints of the year, it will be one hell of a training performance he was only 14th from a lower mark last year. Ninjago is going to win one of these one day but who knows when that day might be, he ran a stinker in The Wokingham. That might work in his favour however as Ryan Moore now takes over & his more dynamic style might suit this lazy horse who was 3rd as a 3yo last season. Hallelujah has been plying her trade in Group & Listed company so far this season with little success, shrewd stable has won this before but the last time a filly or mare won was the great Lochsong in 1992 & I'm afraid that Hallelujah is no Lochsong. Blaine has turned the corner at the right time winning well at Hamilton last time, a Group 2 winner in his pomp he cannot be left out of calculations from a good centre draw.
Sir Maximilian has done me 2 big favours this season at Chester & stepped up to 6f last time out in The Rockingham at The Curragh, 6f is a slight worry as he has yet to win over it but he is a strong traveller who has a great draw in 11, must be respected.
Seeking Magic won the consolation race last year & he shapes as though this has been his number target all season, has a high draw which he won from last year & has plenty of pace around him. Didn't run at all badly in The Wokingham last time after not getting the clearest of runs, he had previously only just got touched off in The Dash at Epsom, has been on my shortlist all season.
Arnold Lane can't win this kind of race, useful in minor Listed / Group company on the continent he struggles with his mark in this country.
Hoodna is a decent filly in excellent form so far this season, running an excellent 3rd in The Bunbury Cup last time, drop back in trip will not bother her & she is a very interesting contender. Clear Spring has been in & out so far this season, new mark probably just about has him even with his talented claimers assistance.
Boomerang Bob goes well in these big field handicaps so a bold showing would not surprise however he should have won more races than he has.
Flyman has been lightly raced so far this season winning on his seasonal debut before disappointing in the Victoria Cup at Ascot, mark has him & ground is an issue. Discussiontofollow is in form & an improving hold up sprinter who won on the line at Ascot last time, 6f is no issue for him so needs respecting given current mood.
Muthmir has always looked a potential handicap good thing & he duly obliged last week easily at York in the style of a potential Group performer. This of course is much tougher for a horse with so little experience & only a week later, so far he has had plenty of time between his races. Understandable why he's favourite as he could just be so much better than these but there are some doubts although his price is now quite appealing at 7/1.
Ballesteros on form has absolutely no chance, fast ground is a huge barrier for this soft ground lover as is the trip of 6f so he would be a shock winner.
Fairway To Heaven is interesting, a big horse who should have plenty of improvement left in him & he won really well last time at Windsor, left alone since so this has clearly been the target. Good fast ground should be fine for him.
Expert has a huge task on for a 3yo & not even a 3yo in that good a form.
Joey's Destiny gained a deserved win after some good efforts last time, that brings him into contention as he certainly strikes me as the type to go well in one of these big heritage handicaps, another with a squeak.
Zero Money has shown nothing in 4 starts & has a mountain to climb.
Barracuda Boy is not up to this company.
Intrinsic has been the buzz horse for these big handicaps in the last few months after missing the cut in the Wokingham he has made it here, a winner over this course & distance on softer ground when last seen, new mark should be within his compass for one so lightly raced but i can't help remembering him as an average looking maiden winner for Sir Michael Stoute last season. He has taken advantage of low marks so far this year & this is much tougher especially considering he has not raced since May.
The old 12yo warrior Borderlescott returns to this race having been 3rd in '08 carrying 9-10, 2nd in '07 with 9-9 & winner in '06 carrying 9-5. The fire still burns just less brightly & it is asking too much for him to to really get involved amongst these younger sprinters even allowing for him only carrying 8-11, I only hope he comes back safe on this fast ground.
Bear Behind has been doing ok since regaining confidence after winning a claimer earlier in the season but should not be up to winning race such as this, will bring more speed for the low drawn horses to tail. Mar Mar scrapes in down the bottom of the weights, she is just an ok filly & will do well to be really getting involved in a race of this nature.
Have already backed Seeking Magic 20/1 E/W Sportingbet / Stan James / Ladbrokes & I am more than happy to stick with him at decent odds. Also at a good price I will also back Sir Maximilian 25/1 E/W Bet365 / Betfred / Betway.
@fttfracing
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