Hello & welcome along to my Breeders Cup Blog. My first Breeders Cup memory was from when I was very small in 1985 when the fabulous Pebbles became the first British winner of a Breeders Cup race in the Turf beating the colts. As a small child I adored Pebbles probably because of her name more than anything but my word she certainly was 'England's Super Filly' a commentary that still to this day brings a tear to my eye.
(See video below)
The event itself has changed dramatically over the years & its current 2 day format is not to everyone's liking. I agree with most that its diluted so the quality is not always as good as 10-20 years ago especially as there are so many similar events now, years ago it was just the Juvenile & Juvenile Fillies but now there are turf events for both categories which are easier for the Europeans to win but to me take away the uniqueness of The Breeders Cup as it was so exciting to see the Europeans try dirt against the best the US had to offer, long gone are the heady days of Arazi, Johannesburg & even Wilko.
(See all 3 races below)
I am also disappointed that the event no longer seems to move around America as it was always interesting to see how different tracks affected the chances of our horses, don't get me wrong Santa Anita is a gorgeous racetrack (which I was lucky enough to visit while in LA this summer) but again it takes away the from the spectacle to be constantly based at one racetrack.
On to the races themselves, I'm no American racing expert but have watched a lot of videos in the last week of the build up races & read the form so here goes.
Breeders Cup Marathon
A hard race to fathom as so few races in America are run over the distance of 1m6f on dirt, Europeans won the first 2 editions but since then we have had nothing this year Jo Hughes sends over decent handicapper London Bridge who has had his limitations exposed in better company. On breeding he should be ok on the surface & really should go close as in reality well over half the field won't stay. If London Bridge cannot win then the most likely winner in my book on breeding & form is the Argentine raider Ever Rider who has won over an extended 1m4f at Palermo (see below).
Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf
Since it's inception Europeans have won 4 from 6 with Aidan O'Brien taking the last 2, this year he saddles Giovanni Boldini & Wilshere Boulevard. Giovanni Boldini has won 2 starts at Dundalk & finished 3rd to our leading 2 year old Toormore, he holds excellent claims but I do worry about his 2 wins on the all weather so whether he wants rock hard ground at Santa Anita is debatable. Wilshere Boulevard is thoroughly exposed but this test could well suit him. Godolphin's Outstrip (who I thought would win the Dewhurst) was bitterly disappointing last time out so that is a negative as is the fact that Mikael Barzalona is in Japan & not been claimed to ride him is strange, Mike Smith is a hell of a substitute but whether his style will suit Outstrip is a worry for me. The other English raider is Richard Hannon's Shamshon who just wouldn't be good enough for me from a bad draw.
I think the US can keep this race this year in the shape of Bobby's Kitten who was very impressive last time out in The Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont quickening away from a good field (see below).
Breeders Cup Dirt Mile
A race which lacks identity & really attracts horses who aren't good enough for the Sprint or the Classic. Two of America's top 3 year olds Verrazano & Goldencents lock horns but both are inherently beatable, Verrazano seems best when beating up lesser opposition & Goldencents can't seem to find his best trip. Pants On Fire has the beating of a couple of his opponents & is in good form but regularly falls short at top level. Alpha is a similar horse when in the mood he can pop up but could not be backed with any confidence. Broadway Empire is an unexposed 3 year old who won the Oklahoma Derby on his last start, he could be improving at the right time but I think this race could be best left to Golden Ticket (see below) who finished 4th to Mucho Macho Man last time & is better at the mile distance.
Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Only Flotilla last year has won this race for the Europeans & favourites have not yet graced the winners circle so clearly the Americans give us plenty to think about in this event. Three European raiders take the challenge this year; Al Thakira: Mightily impressive in the Rockfel recently but will have had 3 races in just over a month plus the shipping to America so I would be concerned for her. Vorda (see below); The impressive Cheveley Park stakes winner who to me must be doubtful at a mile but of course this an American race around 2 turns so its possible & she has the assistance of the fabulous Olivier Peslier.
Chriselliam; was a shock winner of the Fillies Mile, I would genuinely be surprised if she could back up in this event.
Two ex Europeans Clenor & Testa Rossi have been unbeaten since coming across the pond but face much better opposition today including My Conquestadory who stood out for me after I watched her 2 wins on You tube, she made her debut against race fit colts in a Grade 2 at Woodbine where she hosed up, she then went onto polytrack at Keenland (see below) & again won really well from a bad draw. She has the worst possible draw tomorrow but has shown that she can cope so from what I've seen is just too good. The Godolphin pair Dancing House & Sky Painter have chances as well with Sky Painter looking like she will prove the best & she can follow My Conquestadory home.
The final race on Night one is the newly renamed Breeders Cup Distaff which features a small but select field including Royal Delta who is going for a hat trick of victories in this event, she faces some stiff competition this year though from the 3 year olds Beholder who has won 3 Grade 1's this year but was beaten by the rags to riches story horse Princess Of Sylmar
(see below)
in the Kentucky Oaks; Princess Of Sylmar has won 4 Grade 1's this year & beat Royal Delta in The Beldame last time out.
Throw into the mix Close Hatches herself a two time Grade 1 winner this year who beat Princess Of Sylmar earlier in the season & you have a very special race.
At the prices you would have to go with Princess Of Sylmar to put the icing on what has been a very special cake for all her connections.
Saturday Breeders Cup
For any true flat racing fan Saturday night at the Breeders Cup is a special event, the coverage is fantastic from NBC & courtesy of Attheraces we get to see it all unfold on our TV screens.
Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies
A race in which 2 days ago I wouldn't have had any interest but as a poured through all the videos one stood out that of Untapable winning as she pleased after pulling like a train in Churchill Downs' Pocahontas Stakes. I was pleasantly surprised to see that she is a juicy price so she will do for me. Favourites have a great record in this event & Artemis Agrotera fills that berth for Saturday's race, I watched her last run & she won well but didn't grab me as much as Untapable. Concave & She's A Tiger also have good chances.
Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Dank (see below) stands out on form as she faces lesser American opponents than she did when winning the Beverly D easily last time out. Romantica from Andre Fabre's stable can give Dank most to do as she will be well suited by this better going. Alterite has had her last 2 starts in the US but before that had finished in behind Treve & Silasol in France, she is similar to last year's winner Zagora who was a year older but in the same ownership. I wouldn't be surprised if she ran above herself as she won nicely 2 starts ago.
I have no idea on the next 2 races the Filly & Mare Sprint or the Turf Sprint so onwards to the Breeders Cup Juvenile in which Coolmore's Havana looks to hold grand claims after a gutsy win in the Champagne last time out just holding on from a fast finishing runner up. The doubt is whether he can do the same again but it appears to be on paper a race lacking a real star so perhaps he can do it again.
Breeder's Cup Turf
Surely it's The Fugue's (see below) for the taking as she faces distinctly average American opposition who basically beat each other frequently. Her only serious rival is Aidan O'Brien's Magician who takes a marked step up in trip which connections were not keen to do earlier on the season. One note of caution would be that only 2 fillies have ever won the Turf; The great Pebbles & Miss Alleged, few have tried however with only Shareta in recent seasons.
Another race I do not have any clue or opinion in is The Breeders Cup Sprint.
Breeder's Cup Mile
A race in which normally the best European milers win, this year were represented by Olympic Glory; can't have him on the ground or so quickly after Ascot & Cristoforo Columbo; not a chance he's well below what's required to win this & either way does not stay the mile.
Last year's reigning Champion & Horse of the Year Wise Dan (see below) is back for more after his shock defeat when a turf race was switched to polytrack last time. He has beaten all of his US opponents hollow for years now & as long as his powers are not on the wane he faces little opposition from across the pond this time around.
No Jet Lag (see his latest win below) has been talked up in the last few days & has clearly thrived since arriving in the US (previously trained by David Lanigan over here) winning his local trial well. He is still a backable price at 10/1 up to the top grade.
One who could well outrun his odds is Za Approval (see below), he has been beaten by Obviously & Wise Dan this season but both times have been in small fields, I feel the pace will be better on Saturday & in a race that does create shocks occasionally I could see Za Approval flying down the home stretch to nab a piece of the action.
Breeders Cup Classic
The big one of the whole weekend is the $5 million dollar Classic, this year the Europeans have two chances in the shape the game & consistent Declaration Of War who is bred to handle the dirt, my issue is that however good a trainer Aidan O'Brien is; his horses that run on the dirt are usually under prepared & miss the kick often, thus losing the race at the start. It is a hell of an ask for Declaration Of War to win a Grade 1 dirt race on his first start on the surface after a long domestic season.
Planteur is our other representative from the emerging Marco Botti yard, I can't really see the working behind this attempt though as the old boy is barely Group 3 class in this country, has been put in his place several times in good company since a productive 3 year old campaign in France & the ability to handle a dirt surface must be doubtful.
Game On Dude tries to win this race at the 3rd attempt having failed miserably the last twice, according to his trainer he is in much better form this year but the worry is that in top company he is lacking.
Mucho Macho Man (see below) will be hard to keep out of the frame having just been caught in last year's race, he won his trial comfortably last time out.
Last year's winner Fort Larned tries to emulate the only dual winner of the race the great Tiznow, he has been given a light prep in an attempt to defend his crown, if in the same form he must have chances.
Ron The Greek is another decent animal who was well beaten last year & again to me just falls short in the top top races.
The 3 year old generation are represented by Will Take Charge, Palace Malice & Moreno.
Will Take Charge (see below) has emerged out of the shadows to become one of this season's leading 3 year olds after his win in the Travers Stakes after he had been beaten easily in all 3 Triple Crown races. He is improving but has he improved enough.
Palace Malice (see below) won the Belmont before beating Will Take Charge in the Jim Dandy, since then he has been by Will Take Charge in The Travers & Ron The Greek in the Jockey Club I wonder if he is getting caught flat footed over the 1m2f.
Moreno has been beaten by his two 3 year old compatriots in his last 3 starts & has a mountain to climb on Saturday.
Last Gunfighter is an improving 4 year old & it would be no surprise if he outran his odds while old Flat Out is simply a Belmont specialist who finds it difficult anywhere else.
Paynter (see below) is a relatively unexposed 4 year old, he was 2nd in the Belmont as a 3 year old & won the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational. He has had a light campaign this time around looking to me like this is his target, he was 4.5 lengths 2nd to Mucho Macho Man at Santa Anita last time after being carried wide on the bend before that he had finished last when favourite behind Alpha. He is clearly a hit & miss animal but I just feel this has been his long term target & is a decent price to hit the board in an open renewal.
(Check out Paynter's last run behind Mucho Macho Man earlier in this blog)
Breeders Cup Friday November 1st
20:45 Santa Anita Breeders Cup Marathon Grade 2
Exotic bet: Boxed Exacta
Ever Rider / London Bridge
9:25 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Grade 1
Bobby's Kitten 4/1 WIN N/B
10:05 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile Grade 1
Golden Ticket 12/1 E/W
10:50 Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Grade 1
My Conquestadory 6/1 WIN NAP
Breeders Cup Saturday November 2nd
19:05 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Grade 1
Untapable 7/1 WIN NAP
23:40 Breeders Cup Mile
Exotic bet: Combination Trifecta / Boxed Exacta
Wise Dan / No Jet Lag / Za Approval
No Jet Lag 10/1 E/W
Za Approval 33/1 E/W
00:35 Breeders Cup Classic Grade 1
Paynter 14/1 E/W N/B
Exotic Bet: Combination Trifecta / Boxed Exacta
Paynter / Mucho Macho Man / Will Take Charge
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