Its the final Group 1 Flat race of the season tomorrow on Town Moor as the Racing Post Trophy takes centre stage anyone who has been reading the Post all week will know how much its been built up & rightly so as its a race that has been won by some fantastic animals over the years Reference Point (under a different sponsorship), Kings Theatre, Celtic Swing, Saratoga Springs & by 4 future Derby winners over the last 13 years in High Chaparral, Motivator, Authorized plus the much maligned Camelot.
Two weeks ago the Post ran a poll as to who was your favourite RP Trophy winner in the 25 years of the paper's sponsorship; the winner was St Nicholas Abbey in my heart & with no disrespect I think people voted for him as he is in the news as he continues to fight his battle with illness not because of his win on Town Moor, surely there was only one winner of the best RP Trophy winner of the last 25 years & that was Celtic Swing (see below) who was wildly impressive back in '94
Tomorrow's race looks on paper right up to scratch & competitive with 4 unbeaten colts in the lineup. The most successful trainer in the race is Aidan O'Brien with 7 winners since 1997 he saddles 3 contenders tomorrow in Century, Johann Strauss & Buonarotti.
So does the scatter gun approach mean that O'Brien does not really have a standout runner tomorrow?
Probably
As out of his 7 winners, 3 of those winners were his only runner in the race (Saratoga Springs, St Nicholas Abbey & Kingsbarns), in Camelot's year he ran Learn but everyone knew Camelot was the one whereas from his other 2 winners only Brian Boru was favourite when he beat his stablemate Powerscourt & High Chaparral was 9/2 to beat his better fancied stablemate Castle Gandolfo.
In recent years it has become clear that when O'Brien runs 3 or 4 horses its because no one horse stands out.
Century a once raced maiden winner appears to be O'Brien's number 1, he won his maiden well, he should handle ease but doesn't seem to have as big a reputation as a normal O'Brien Trophy winner. On breeding for next year it has to be doubtful that he would get much further than a mile being out of a Lujain mare.
Johann Strauss is unusual as he is still a maiden although most believe he was given a bad ride by Joseph at Newmarket recently but in all fairness he was beaten again next time at Naas so surely he lacks the real class for this assignment. Buonarotti is another choicely bred individual who improved from his debut when finding the tight turns of Galway not to his liking to win a maiden from useful horses in good style at Tipperary over a furlong further than today's trip, Paul Hanagan may well have picked up a nice spare ride. Remember O'Brien won this race twice with Kevin Darley riding for him back early part of this century (High Chaparral & Brian Boru)
Pinzolo (see below) hails from Charlie Appleby's side of Godolphin & is a horse who has really impressed me. He is unbeaten in 2 races, is the most gorgeous looker with a flowing walk. He looked beat in The Haynes Hanson & Clark at Newbury a month back but once switched quickened up to win a shade cosily on the line. His form was boosted in the week after Sudden Wonder won easily at Newmarket. He will handle anymore softening of the ground & the 7/1 that was available earlier in the week was soon snapped up by myself.
Kingston Hill won the Autumn Stakes in good style beating Pupil further than Pinzolo had at Newbury but I don't believe Pupil is Group Class & the Newbury race was run steadily while Newmarket was more even paced. He was only 17/2 to win a Group 3 against lesser horses like Oklahoma City (you would assume O'Brien has a line through with his 3 runners) that day so I can't have him as 7/2f for tomorrow up against better quality opponents.
Somewhat (see below) seems to have been somewhat overlooked if you pardon the pun, he is one of the better 2 year olds around & for a Mark Johnston horse has be relatively sparsely raced. He brings the form line of my favourite horse Berkshire into this Group 1 & actually now looking at the prices is too big. He is a lovely big animal who will only make a better 3 year old, he will improve for softer ground & has already shown form good enough to win an average RP Trophy.
Chief Barker represents Hannon/Hughes & Middleham Park instead of Toormore, he is a nice individual but I would be shocked if he is good enough to mix it with some of these for all he beat shock Fillies Mile winner Chrisellium last time out. Snow Sky has been supplemented by Sir Michael Stoute after making mincemeat of his opponents on very heavy ground at Salisbury before then he had looked just ok in his 2 maiden defeats. Clearly connections are hoping the ground will be bottomless again.
The Grey Gatsby has been in behind Outstrip recently & looks like the mile trip is what he wants. He is a very likeable colt but may just lack the class.
Altruistic represents the all conquering Johnny Murtagh so warrants respect but on form he has it all to do with Kingston Hill as he finished behind Oklahoma City last time & behind a stablemate of the 3 Ballydoyle runners. Dolce N Karama is hopelessly outclassed.
The rest of Doncaster's card is very trappy, typical end of season fair especially as the ground has softened appreciably.
In the Handicap sprint recent Listed winner Steps has a lot on with his big weight as all the usual suspects step out again I could see Kyleakin Lass going well in first time cheekpieces at a working mans price.
The 1m4f handicap is very tricky with 2 real improving 3 year olds locking horns Ennistown & Thomas Hobson who have gone up 26lbs between them in the handicap, throw in Van Percy who had no run when finishing 5th behind Nicholascopernicus himself a fast finishing 2nd at York last time. Also with a chance is the lightly raced Sir Michael Stoute trained filly Centred & the John Quinn useful juvenile hurdler Kashmir Peak who was 8th in the Van Percy / Nicholascopernicus race. Old Voodoo Prince looks close to a winnable mark but a slog in soft ground is not what he wants along with his suspect temperament.
The other races are best left alone in my opinion.
Newbury which looked very soft today looks another very tough card, the feature races are also quite disappointing although the presence of an Andre Fabre 2 year old in the Horris Hill catches the eye; Galiway will not need to be very good to win in truth an awful Group 3.
The others are all very exposed at a level apart from Piping Rock who is unbeaten however he was patently the only one who handled the very heavy ground at Salisbury last time & his maiden win is not working out. If there is to be a shock then the grey Kickboxer could provide it, he is a tough hardy 2 year old who handles soft.
The St Simon Stakes is a race full of generally disappointing horses who have never quite fulfilled their potential, decent in there own grade Listed to lesser Group 3 so one has a chance to shine tomorrow.
Prince Bishop - good in this grade but has a 3lb penalty tomorrow.
Masterstroke - last year's Arc 3rd, extremely disappointing so far this year dropping away tamely after making the running on his latest start, maybe he has breathing issues.
Model Pupil - acts on soft, hasn't quite made it as a stayer this year & been out of form for the majority.
Cubanita - seems to excel late in the year but will have to be at her best to beat the boys.
Quiz Mistress - Listed win last time but way below form throughout most of the season although she does go well here.
Sugar Boy - will love the ground & was in form earlier in the year, last 2 starts disappointing, could easily bounce back.
Nichols Canyon - needed all of the 1m6f trip to win a Listed race last time out. May well get an uncontested lead & could take some catching.
Cocktail Queen - in the search of more Black type, quite a useful 2 year old who has not been seen since French 1000 Guineas, unknown.
There are 2 excellent jumps meeting's tomorrow as the NH season really picks up, Chepstow & Aintree lead the charge.
A cracking handicap hurdle opens Aintree's card in which the highly touted Karinga Dancer makes his handicap debut having being rerouted from Chepstow, he looks to be on a reasonable mark but may find one to good with the lightly weighted Special Catch who definitely has more in him this year.
The big race at Aintree is The Old Roan Chase which has attracted a competitive field slightly below the normal class of this race though. It may pay to side with the in form stables so that brings in Edgardo Sol from Paul Nicholls whose horses are flying at present, he also won the Red Rum Chase 2 years ago. Walkon goes very well fresh & I hope he can go well as he takes the first steps on the long road that I hope will lead back to Aintree in April for the Grand National. Wishful Thinking is another who goes well fresh but he must give weight away to his rivals.
Lurking at the bottom of the weights however is my idea of the winner in Saint Are (see below), he is 1lb below his last winning mark which came at Aintree in 2012 when he won the 3m Listed Handicap Chase beating Battle Group. He generally struggled last season but must have a really good chance at the weights tomorrow.
Keep an eye on the last 2 races on the card as Shutthefrontdoor & the exciting Regal Encore make their respective chase & hurdle debuts
Chepstow's card is usually heralded as the first major jumps meeting of the season with the Persian War Hurdle taking centre stage.
The second race on the card is an exciting novice chase featuring the chase debuts of Just A Par & Shotgun Paddy plus the return of Rev It Up whose last run was in this race last year when he finished 2nd. Boyfromnowhere should come on from his recent Bangor run when he blew up. Arthurian Legend won the big handicap hurdle on this card 2 years ago but has not quite gone including over fences last season.
The Grade 2 Persian War lacks a real standout horse this year although it could well be the ex good quality bumper performer Cesar Milan now in the care of Paul Nicholls. Berkeley Barron & Potters Cross come from a CD novice hurdle that was run 2 weeks ago which they finished 2nd & 3rd respectively. I'd be disappointed if either of those two could win.
Timesrembered represents the still in form Emma Lavelle stable who won on his hurdling debut earlier this month, he is a former decent pointer. Lienosus brings the best form into the race, he was actually 3rd in this race last year before getting beaten up by Clondaw Kaempfar. Johnny Og makes his hurdling debut after some down the field runs in bumpers.
Its an interesting field that has been assembled for the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle as last year's winner Lamb Or Cod is back to defend his title, he badly lost his way afterwards last season. He can be given a chance again from a few lbs higher if the summer break has done him good. Paul Nicholls fields an unknown in the 4 year old Virak who bolted up on his British debut back in March, he could be anything but is fairly high in the weights. Broadway Buffalo had won 5 on the bounce last season before coming unstuck at Aintree he is another who can bounce back.
Araldur is solid in this grade but has a lot of weight. Peckhamecho has 10lbs taken off by his claimer which gives him chances. Notus De La Tour will appreciate anymore ease, he is well handicapped on chase form whether he will be ready tomorrow is doubtful. Kayliff Aramis was a model of consistency last season going up 23lbs in total, his stable always starts the season well so he is a player. Hold Court is clearly going to need the race judging by jockey bookings as stable jockey Paul Moloney is on Makethe Mostofnow who is on a reasonable mark. Quaddick Lake ran behind The New One last sunday so will find this easier however he is 10 & still above his last winning mark.
An excellent 2 mile Handicap Chase is also on the card tomorrow featuring the classy Sire De Grugy (see below), Rebel Rebellion, Majala & Theatrical Star. Hopefully Sire De Grugy will be too classy for his opponents as he is a lovely horse.
At 07:40 UK time live on Attheraces, Moonee Valley hosts The Cox Plate which to Australian racing purists is there number 1 all age Group 1 race.
This race normally goes to a horse who is a specialist at the 1m2f trip with only the great Makybe Diva & Saintly in the last 10 years winning this before winning a Melbourne Cup.
My thoughts on the runners are:
Green Moon - Needs to run a bit better than he has been & the trip is not for him.
Happy Trails - Bagged his Group 1 last time in the Turnbull & is unlikely to be good enough.
Fiorente - Been running very well but draw is major negative as is the trip, will be fast finishing again.
Foreteller - Another to bag a Group 1 recently may well be underestimated again.
Side Glance - Cracking draw & ran really well in Arlington Million, arguably shouldn't be good enough but may not need to be, overpriced.
Seville - Interested in him with a view to the Cup will probably find this all happening to quickly.
Rekindled Interest - Goes very well at the Valley having won twice & he was 3rd in this race 2 years ago. Looks to have primed for this race.
Puissance De Lune - If he's going to win a Group 1 then I think this could well be it as I can't seeing him staying in a Melbourne Cup. This is his trip.
Masked Marvel - Good draw but surely will find it all happening to quickly may well finish fast although he looks a little quirky to me.
Mull Of Killough - Will be very surprised if he is good enough, he has been exposed on his worldwide raids so far.
Its A Dundeel - Top class racehorse who will be very hard to beat even though the draw is less than perfect.
Super Cool - Another with a bad draw, he will be finishing though.
Long John - Another step up the ladder for this hugely improving 3 year old, don't underestimate.
Shamus Award - In behind Long John last time, consistently runner in 3 year old events but looks outclassed here.
Also set the sky+ for Moonee Valley's 4th race at 03:55am UK Time Royal Ascot winner Opinion makes his Australian debut in a Handicap.
Saturday Selections
07:40 Moonee Valley Sportingbet Cox Plate Group 1
Rekindled Interest 40/1 E/W
15:05 Aintree Betfred Monet's Garden Old Road Chase Grade 2
Saint Are 14/1 E/W
15:15 Doncaster Bet Through The Racing Post Mobile Handicap
Kyleakin Lass 14/1 E/W
15:50 Doncaster Racing Post Trophy Group 1
Pinzolo 9/2 WIN
Somewhat 8/1 E/W
Reverse Forecast
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