Hello & welcome along to this new blog on The Melbourne Cup regular readers will know I was very keen on Waldpark 2 months ago but unfortunately due to his lacklustre run in last Saturday's Caulfield Cup due to a breathing problem he is now out of the cup.
So I have taken a fresh look at the race with the hope to finding a decent priced runner who has been overlooked in the frantic build up.
Vital Statistics for the Cup:
Last 20 years results
| Year | Winner | Age Sex | Jockey | Trainer | Owner | Time | Field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Green Moon
|
6 h
|
3.20.45
|
24
| ||||
Dunaden
|
6 h
|
Pearl Bloodstock Pty (Mgr. R Levitt)
|
3.20.84
|
23
| |||
Americain
|
6 h
|
Gerry Ryan, K. C Bamford
|
3.26.87
|
23
| |||
Shocking
|
4 h
|
3.23.87
|
23
| ||||
Viewed
|
5 h
|
Tan Chin Nam, et al.
|
3.20.40
|
22
| |||
Efficient
|
4 g
|
Lloyd Williams et al.
|
3.23.34
|
21
| |||
Delta Blues
|
6 h
|
Sunday Racing Co Ltd
|
3.21.47
|
23
| |||
Makybe Diva
|
7 m
|
3.19.17
|
24
| ||||
Makybe Diva
|
6 m
|
3.28.55
|
24
| ||||
Makybe Diva
|
5 m
|
3.19.90
|
23
| ||||
Media Puzzle
|
6 g
|
Dr M. W. Smurfit, et al.
|
3.16.97
|
23
| |||
Ethereal
|
4 m
|
P. J. & P. M. Vela
|
3.21.08
|
22
| |||
Brew
|
6 g
|
Gurner's Bloodstock Co.
|
3.18.68
|
22
| |||
7 g
|
Mrs W. L. Green, et al.
|
3.19.64
|
24
| ||||
1998
|
6 m
|
A. K. Burr, et al.
|
3.18.59
|
24
| |||
1997
|
4 h
|
Mr N. Moraitis
|
3.18.33
|
22
| |||
1996
|
4 g
|
Dato Tan Chin Nam, et al.
|
3.18.80
|
22
| |||
1995
|
5 g
|
Pacers Australia Syndicate
|
3.27.60
|
21
| |||
1994
|
6 h
|
3.19.80
|
24
| ||||
1993
|
7 g
|
3.23.40
|
24
| ||||
9 x 6yo Winners
5 x 4yo Winners
3 x 5yo Winners
3 x 7yo Winners
Draw:
10 Winners Drawn between 1 - 10
6 Winners Drawn between 11 - 16
Only 4 Winners Drawn higher than 16 all coming from barrier 21 (3) bar one who came from 22
Weight:
5 x 54.5kg
3 x 55.5kg
3 x 51kg2 x 56kg
1 x 56.5kg
1 x 53kg
1 x 52.5kg
1 x 52kg
1 x 50kg
1 x 49kg
1 x 58kg (Makybe Diva)
Safe to say the average winning weight is between 56kg - 51kg with winner most likely to carry 54.5kg
Lead up races producing most winners:
7 x Caulfield Cup (3 x Winners / 3 x placed horses (2 - 4) / 1 x unplaced horse)
4 x Cox Plate (2 x Winners / 2 x unplaced)
3 x Geelong Cup (Both French Trained Winners & Media Puzzle all 3 Won)
1 x Mackinnon (Unplaced: Viewed)
1 x Lexus (Winner: Shocking)
1 x Saab Quality (Winner: Brew)
1 x Irish St Leger (Winner: Vintage Crop)
Trainers:
Only 3 Trainers have Won multiple Cups in the last 20 years;
Lee Freedman x 3 (Makybe Diva x 2 & Doriemus)
Bart Cummings x 3 (Viewed, Rogan Josh & Saintly)
Dermot Weld x 2 (Vintage Crop & Media Puzzle)
Jockeys:
Glen Boss x 3 all on the mighty Makybe Diva
Damien Oliver x 2 Media Puzzle & Doriemus
Horses / Mares & Geldings:
8 x Geldings
7 x Horses (Full male horse older than 4)
5 x Mares (Female older than 4, 3 Wins by Makybe Diva)
SP's:
Only 4 Favourites have won in the last 20 years
8 x Winners between 4/1 - 9/1 (including 1 6/1f Jezabeel)
7 x Winners between 10/1 - 20/1
1 x Winner bigger than 20/1 (40/1 Viewed 2008)
International Winners:
2 x New Zealand
2 x French
2 x Irish
1 x Japanese
No English Trained horse has ever won the cup but 5 horses whose careers started in England have Won the Cup Backwood (1921), Beldale Ball (1980), At Talaq '86 (H.Thomson-Jones), Jeune '94 (Geoff Wragg) & Green Moon 2012 (Harry Dunlop)
See the videos for Beldale Ball, At Talaq, Jeune & Green Moon below
The other quandary is who will get in with only a maximum of 24 runners allowed plus take into account that there are still 3 exemption races still be run Saturday's Cox Plate, The Lexus & The Mackinnon; the winners of those 3 races are exempt from being balloted out i.e win & you're in.
At this moment only one horse is currently exempt last Saturday's Caulfield Cup winner Fawkner.
See current order of entry
Its a precarious wait for me as the horse I currently fancy quite strongly is the 2012 New Zealand Derby winner, the mare Silent Achiever who currently sits 24th in the list ahead of Royal Empire, Mount Athos, Masked Marvel (Due to run in Cox Plate) & Simenon.
The reasons I am very keen on her are, she has finished close up on the heels of the leaders in her last 3 starts doing all her best work at the finish, she is very stoutly bred being out of a Zabeel mare (who sired 3 Melbourne Cup Winners) & this has been her target since last year.
She was 2nd favourite for last Saturday's Caulfield Cup & finished 8th so on paper that might look disappointing but there are mitigating circumstances, her jockey Glen Boss gave her a bad ride hence the 12 meeting suspension he received & her trainer Roger James has reported that she suffered cuts
"She’s got stitches in both hind legs and one was a rather nasty cut, but she’s sound and that’s the main thing, I'm not sure where it happened, but it was possibly where Bossy caused the interference.
"Apart from the cuts, she pulled up really well. Ten minutes afterwards you wouldn’t have known she had raced.”
She also hated the hard track at Caulfield so hopefully Melbourne can experience some showers as it looks like she needs some cut
James said Silent Achiever would not start again before the Melbourne Cup but the 5yo needed to work on Tuesday morning to show she was capable of proceeding towards the first Tuesday in November.
I have not yet found out if that piece of work went well but as it is Thursday I would hope if anything had come to light that it would have surfaced somewhere on the net by now.
So at her over inflated odds of 50/1 in places, between 60/1 - 80/1 with Betdaq & 110/1 on Betfair she is worth an investment.
A quick word on the other likely runners:
Dunaden -
too old, too much weight & shown hardly anything this year
Green Moon -
too much weight & not been in the best of form, will see how he runs in the Cox Plate on Saturday
It's A Dundeel -
Class horse who should go very close in Saturday's Cox Plate. Little too much weight to win a Cup for me but hard to keep out of the frame
Red Cadeaux -
again too old, too much weight, had his chance 2 years ago (when I had backed him) off his low weight
Sea Moon -
Have really liked him since watching him run in Oz before that he had been a disappointing horse in Europe for me. Quite a lot of weight & has had a few quick runs. Especially as his next run will be in The Lexus then 3 days later the Cup. Should stay
Manighar -
too old, too much weight, out of form, I wouldn't run him
Super Cool -
Another not to have been showing a lot, probably won't stay on breeding (Runs in Cox Plate)
Fiorente -
seems to have had the perfect build up, has a good weight looks primed to go well again (Runs in Cox Plate)
Royal Descent -
Another Group 1 winning mare who has been coming on nicely in her recent races, a potential roughie with a squeak
Hawkspur -
Fancied to run well in Caulfield Cup but undone by the draw, has been on the go for ages & may just be feeling it now
Tres Blue -
The newly arrived Gai Waterhouse hope from France with ok form nothing superb, needs to show he can handle better ground & that he can settle in his new environment quickly having only just arrived
Brown Panther -
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Looks a good type for Melbourne, just hope he's over his little setback for a big assignment, best of the English for me
Foreteller -
already gained a surprise Group 1 this year in The Makybe Diva but has been easily brushed aside since, doubtful stayer
Ethiopia -
fancied him in my squad of 4 last year which contained Green Moon (Won), Fiorente (2nd) & Kellini (4th). He has been badly out of form so far
Dandino -
Ran a good race in The Caulfield Cup, will he stay? I'm unsure
Sangster -
New Zealander who has won over the distance in the Auckland Cup last year, bad run in Turnbull when last & hasn't been seen since, if he runs could well surprise
Verema -
The French filly, hasn't been seen since winning the Prix Kergorlay in August. Should stay but it looks a hot race this year so I would doubt she is quite good enough
Mourayan -
Old boy who is not good enough
Puissance De Lune -
Still fancied by many, I genuinely can't see him staying even if he does win or go well in Saturday's Cox Plate. I also think he has had a hard season
Seville -
The only Lloyd Williams horse I really like, runs in Saturday's Cox Plate after gaining his first success on Australian soil on his latest start where I thought he won quite cosily. I would like to see how he gets on Saturday over a sharp trip for him on a tight course but I may well be backing him for the Cup
Dear Demi -
23rd in the order of entry, ran a screamer in The Caulfield Cup, should stay & is another nice mare who looks to have a good chance in the Cup. Her exuberant owner has backed her to win $2 Million Australian Dollars
Horses below the 24 horse cut off point at present include
Mount Athos -
was he really unlucky last year? or was he just not up to it. He has looked recalcitrant to me this time around
Royal Empire -
Game as a pebble if he gets in will be hard to keep out of the frame
Masked Marvel -
(Seen above finishing 2nd on latest start)
Runs in Cox Plate apparently Lloyd Williams number 1 hope. I for the life of me can't see this English St Leger winner having enough pace to win at 1m2f around a tight track like Moonee Valley. I also did not like his attitude last time
Simenon -
Well down the pecking order will need another run & win to get in
I will throw one real curveball into the mix currently sitting 36th in the order of entry is Moriarty formerly trained by Richard Hannon over here.
I liked his run when finishing 10th in last Saturday's Caulfield Cup, he could be peaking at the right time. He will need a miracle to get in but I would imagine he will be entered in The Lexus or The Mackinnon & they could be winnable races for him, if he does he gets a run automatically so I will watch out for him closely
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