fourtothefloorracing's blog: Betfred November Handicap Saturday 8th November 2013

Hello & welcome along to my new blog as I write this it is raining cats & dogs in Ascot, thoroughly miserable but it is after all November.

The last big race of the 2013 Flat Racing season takes place on Town Moor tomorrow afternoon & it has attracted a maximum 23 runner field.

In recent years John Gosden has been the man to follow with 2 winners in the last 10 years & 5 winners in total during the races history.

In this year's renewal Gosden runs the 2 top weights in Group class performer Aiken & Lahaag.

4 year olds have won 5 of the last 10 renewals

3 year olds 4 of the last 10 renewals (none since 2007)

2 5 year olds have won in the last 10 years

The weight range of the winners is:

8-7 - 9-2

No favourite has won since Snow Princess way back in 1995.

The conundrum for this year's edition is the top weight Aiken (see below) who was finishing 2nd in The Long Distance Cup on British Champions Day last year since then he has dramatically declined showing nothing in 3 starts this season including in this year's Long Distance Cup last time out. He races in blinkers tomorrow for the first time & is back in a handicap since winning Epsom's Great Metropolitan Handicap first time out last season. The ground is very much in his favour tomorrow so can you really let a proven Group performer go off at 16/1 in a handicap?

Current favourite is the William Haggas trained Conduct a lightly raced 6 year old gelding who ran a lovely trial beyond Clon Brulee over the course & distance last time out. He looks to be sitting on a bigger performance but this a tough contest. John Gosden's other runner is Lahaag as horse I have followed all year & luckily he came good at 8/1 last time, he is 4lbs higher today & should remain competitive but whether he wants genuine soft ground I have my doubts. Rhombus a 3 year old trained by Ismail Mohammed has been well backed in recent days, he should love the ground being by Authorized but has a lot to find on figures.

Border Legend is another horse I have liked since I saw him win a Windsor maiden last summer, he has in all honesty been disappointing until last time, he should stay but I doubt he will be good enough judging by past runs. Nicholascopernicus really should have won more races than he has & was bitterly disappointing last time but maybe he bounced after a good run just 2 weeks before after returning from 5 months off, he was fancied to win last year when only finishing 13th, the ground will be no issue so he has place chances. Open Eagle is hard to rate after he won on his British debut last time out his form in France was ok but this is a tough race.

Nearly Caught looked a young stayer to follow when winning over 1m6f at Haydock in September he was then tried in Group company over Arc weekend & was on the face of it disappointing. He will stay all day & love the ground but may just have too much weight. Forgotten Hero won at the Leger meeting his first since his maiden 3 year old win, he has gone up 3lbs & that's enough to stop him for me. Communicator was 2nd last year off a 4lb lower mark for all he will go on the ground & has had this race as his aim he has not been in the same form this time around.

Bohemian Rhapsody is too high in the handicap for this kind of race. Hi There is another to have gone up after bolting up last time out, he is also a doubtful stayer. Cashpoint is an exposed 8 year old but is in blinding form recently & may well be a place option.

For all that Highland Castle is in good form he remains 7lbs above his last winning mark. Twelve Strings is feasibly treated after regaining the winning thread in comfortable fashion last time at Nottingham, he has long promised to be a decent handicapper. Shrewd & Ex Oriente are out of their depth while Itlaaq, Kiama Bay & Cousin Khee are exposed.

Swnymor who was contesting graded juvenile hurdles last season returns to the flat on a slightly lower mark than his last win on the level when winning on soft ground at Newbury, he has chances but this is a very good handicap. Rio's Rosanna is another exposed animal but on the very soft ground a case can be made for this grand old campaigner.

Awake My Soul (nearest the rails in the picture below) made hay at the start of the season from his low mark winning 3 since then he has struggled until last time out at Nottingham in a race that is usually a good trial for tomorrows when he finished an excellent 3rd handling the heavy ground. To me he is still on a competitive mark & is savagely overpriced.

The first Champion Hurdle Trial of the new Jumps season takes place tomorrow at Wincanton in the shape of Elite Hurdle.

Melodic Rendezvous (see below) one of the best novices around from last season returns after being unable to run at the Festival, his connections are hoping that he is a Champion Hurdle horse & he should be straight for tomorrow. I have liked the horse for a while but I think he will need to win tomorrow if he is to be considered Champion Hurdle class.

Cotton Mill returns after a pretty disappointing campaign last time around, he has ability but I would expect Melodic Rendezvous to be better than him.

Karinga Dancer steps up in grade before he goes chasing assuming he doesn't win this impressively as you never know he may replace Rock On Ruby for Harry Fry's Champion hope, I think he will give Melodic most to do. Far West was one of the better juveniles last year but I would be surprised if he was good enough for tomorrows race.

Earlier on the card Plein Pouvoir races from his last winning mark & jumps for fun. I expect him to win.

The Badger Ales Trophy has attracted a very good field with Aiteen Thirtythree returning from a 651 day absence, he will probably just need the race but I think he should go well. From the other end of the weights is the improving Standing Ovation who is on an early season 4 timer, he will be a danger to all. Alvarado is just 1lb above his last winning mark when winning the Bobby Renton at Wetherby early last season. I was happy with his first start this year & I think he will be competitive here.

The Rising Stars Novice Chase despite only attracting 4 runners looks a cracking race in which I hope Meister Eckhart (see below) can make a successful chasing debut against Wonderful Charm, Fox Appeal & Third Intention.

Navan on Sunday live on Attheraces sees the return to action of the enigma that is Flemanstar (see below) now in the care of Tony Martin. The race has badly cut up from the 5 day stage & he should win with the minimum of fuss.

Earlier on the card I would expect Rule The World (see below) to continue his comeback in the Lismullen Hurdle as he takes on Dedigout, Captain Cee Bee, Mala Beach, Jetson & Un Beau Martin