It's finally here 'The Race That Stops A Nation' after all the trials & tribulation of the last month or so (more trials for me as both my Ante Post tips have not made it Waldpark & most recently just 3 days ago Silent Achiever)
So I have taken another fresh look at the race with the hope to finding a decent priced runner one of which I will name now as I mentioned him is dispatches over the last few blogs & that is one of the sextet from Lloyd Williams; The ex Aidan O'Brien trained Seville he is had a perfect prep winning his first race down under 2 starts ago & finishing well in behind over an inadequate 1m2f in The Cox Plate 2 weeks ago so at 16/1 with Hugh Bowman in the saddle he is a blinding each way bet.
Vital Statistics for the Cup:
Last 20 years results
| Year | Winner | Age Sex | Jockey | Trainer | Owner | Time | Field |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Green Moon
|
6 h
|
3.20.45
|
24
| ||||
Dunaden
|
6 h
|
Pearl Bloodstock Pty (Mgr. R Levitt)
|
3.20.84
|
23
| |||
Americain
|
6 h
|
Gerry Ryan, K. C Bamford
|
3.26.87
|
23
| |||
Shocking
|
4 h
|
3.23.87
|
23
| ||||
Viewed
|
5 h
|
Tan Chin Nam, et al.
|
3.20.40
|
22
| |||
Efficient
|
4 g
|
Lloyd Williams et al.
|
3.23.34
|
21
| |||
Delta Blues
|
6 h
|
Sunday Racing Co Ltd
|
3.21.47
|
23
| |||
Makybe Diva
|
7 m
|
3.19.17
|
24
| ||||
Makybe Diva
|
6 m
|
3.28.55
|
24
| ||||
Makybe Diva
|
5 m
|
3.19.90
|
23
| ||||
Media Puzzle
|
6 g
|
Dr M. W. Smurfit, et al.
|
3.16.97
|
23
| |||
Ethereal
|
4 m
|
P. J. & P. M. Vela
|
3.21.08
|
22
| |||
Brew
|
6 g
|
Gurner's Bloodstock Co.
|
3.18.68
|
22
| |||
7 g
|
Mrs W. L. Green, et al.
|
3.19.64
|
24
| ||||
1998
|
6 m
|
A. K. Burr, et al.
|
3.18.59
|
24
| |||
1997
|
4 h
|
Mr N. Moraitis
|
3.18.33
|
22
| |||
1996
|
4 g
|
Dato Tan Chin Nam, et al.
|
3.18.80
|
22
| |||
1995
|
5 g
|
Pacers Australia Syndicate
|
3.27.60
|
21
| |||
1994
|
6 h
|
3.19.80
|
24
| ||||
1993
|
7 g
|
3.23.40
|
24
| ||||
9 x 6yo Winners
5 x 4yo Winners
3 x 5yo Winners
3 x 7yo Winners
Draw:
10 Winners Drawn between 1 - 10
6 Winners Drawn between 11 - 16
Only 4 Winners Drawn higher than 16 all coming from barrier 21 (3) bar one who came from 22
Weight:
5 x 54.5kg
3 x 55.5kg
3 x 51kg2 x 56kg
1 x 56.5kg
1 x 53kg
1 x 52.5kg
1 x 52kg
1 x 50kg
1 x 49kg
1 x 58kg (Makybe Diva)
Safe to say the average winning weight is between 56kg - 51kg with winner most likely to carry 54.5kg
Lead up races producing most winners:
7 x Caulfield Cup (3 x Winners / 3 x placed horses (2 - 4) / 1 x unplaced horse)
4 x Cox Plate (2 x Winners / 2 x unplaced)
3 x Geelong Cup (Both French Trained Winners & Media Puzzle all 3 Won)
1 x Mackinnon (Unplaced: Viewed)
1 x Lexus (Winner: Shocking)
1 x Saab Quality (Winner: Brew)
1 x Irish St Leger (Winner: Vintage Crop)
Trainers:
Only 3 Trainers have Won multiple Cups in the last 20 years;
Lee Freedman x 3 (Makybe Diva x 2 & Doriemus)
Bart Cummings x 3 (Viewed, Rogan Josh & Saintly)
Dermot Weld x 2 (Vintage Crop & Media Puzzle)
Jockeys:
Glen Boss x 3 all on the mighty Makybe Diva
Damien Oliver x 2 Media Puzzle & Doriemus
Horses / Mares & Geldings:
8 x Geldings
7 x Horses (Full male horse older than 4)
5 x Mares (Female older than 4, 3 Wins by Makybe Diva)
SP's:
Only 4 Favourites have won in the last 20 years
8 x Winners between 4/1 - 9/1 (including 1 6/1f Jezabeel)
7 x Winners between 10/1 - 20/1
1 x Winner bigger than 20/1 (40/1 Viewed 2008)
International Winners:
2 x New Zealand
2 x French
2 x Irish
1 x Japanese
No English Trained horse has ever won the cup but 5 horses whose careers started in England have Won the Cup Backwood (1921), Beldale Ball (1980), At Talaq '86 (H.Thomson-Jones), Jeune '94 (Geoff Wragg) & Green Moon 2012 (Harry Dunlop)
See the videos for Beldale Ball, At Talaq, Jeune & Green Moon below
So here we go as I run down the full race field for
No.
|
Horse
|
Trainer
|
Jockey
|
Barrier
|
Weight
|
1
|
DUNADEN (FR)
|
Mikel Delzangles
|
Jamie Spencer
|
1
|
58.5kg
|
2
|
GREEN MOON (IRE)
|
Robert Hickmott
|
Brett Prebble
|
10
|
57.5kg
|
3
|
RED CADEAUX (GB)
|
Ed Dunlop
|
Gerald Mosse
|
23
|
56.5kg
|
4
|
SEA MOON (GB)
|
Robert Hickmott
|
Steven Arnold
|
7
|
56.5kg
|
5
|
BROWN PANTHER (GB)
|
Tom Dascombe
|
Richard Kingscote
|
6
|
55kg
|
6
|
FIORENTE (IRE)
|
Gai Waterhouse
|
Damien Oliver
|
5
|
55kg
|
7
|
FORETELLER (GB)
|
Chris Waller
|
Craig Newitt
|
15
|
55kg
|
8
|
DANDINO (GB)
|
Marco Botti
|
Ryan Moore
|
4
|
54.5kg
|
9
|
ETHIOPIA
|
Pat Carey
|
Rhys McLeod
|
14
|
54.5kg
|
10
|
FAWKNER
|
Robert Hickmott
|
Nick Hall
|
8
|
54.5kg
|
11
|
MOURAYAN (IRE)
|
Robert Hickmott
|
Brenton Avdulla
|
19
|
54.5kg
|
12
|
SEVILLE (GER)
|
Robert Hickmott
|
Hugh Bowman
|
9
|
54.5kg
|
13
|
SUPER COOL
|
Mark Kavanagh
|
Corey Brown
|
13
|
54.5kg
|
14
|
MASKED MARVEL (GB)
|
Robert Hickmott
|
Michael Rodd
|
2
|
54kg
|
15
|
MOUNT ATHOS (IRE)
|
Luca Cumani
|
Craig Williams
|
22
|
54kg
|
16
|
ROYAL EMPIRE (IRE)
|
Saeed Bin Suroor
|
Kerrin McEvoy
|
11
|
54kg
|
17
|
VOLEUSE DE COEURS (IRE)
|
Michael Moroney
|
James McDonald
|
21
|
54kg
|
18
|
HAWKSPUR
|
Chris Waller
|
Jim Cassidy
|
18
|
53.5kg
|
19
|
SIMENON (IRE)
|
William Mullins
|
Richard Hughes
|
12
|
53.5kg
|
20
|
IBICENCO (GER)
|
Peter G Moody
|
Luke Nolen
|
17
|
53kg
|
21
|
VEREMA (FR)
|
Alain de Royer Dupre
|
Christophe Lemaire
|
3
|
53kg
|
22
|
DEAR DEMI
|
Clarry Conners
|
Chris Munce
|
16
|
51kg
|
23
|
TRES BLUE (IRE)
|
Gai Waterhouse
|
Tommy Berry
|
20
|
51kg
|
24
|
RUSCELLO (IRE)
|
Ed Walker
|
Chad Schofield
|
24
|
50kg
|
The 2013 Emirates Melbourne Cup
Dunaden -
Too old, too much weight & shown hardly anything this year
Green Moon -
Too much weight & not been in the best of form, he ran just an ok race in the Cox Plate. Connections hoping first time blinkers can revive
Red Cadeaux -
Again too old, too much weight & an awful draw, had his chance 2 years ago (when I had backed him) off his low weight
Sea Moon -
Have really liked him since watching him run in Oz before that he had been a disappointing horse in Europe for me. Quite a lot of weight & has had a few quick runs. Should stay
Brown Panther -
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Looks a good type for Melbourne & bagged his biggest success this year at Goodwood, just hope he's over his little setback for a big assignment, I can see him running well but just outside the top four
Fiorente -
Looks a good type for Melbourne & bagged his biggest success this year at Goodwood, just hope he's over his little setback for a big assignment, I can see him running well but just outside the top four
Fiorente -
Seems to have had the perfect build up, has a good weight looks primed to go well again although I was a little disappointed that he couldn't win the Cox Plate with the way the race panned out
Foreteller -
Already gained a surprise Group 1 this year in The Makybe Diva but has been easily brushed aside since, doubtful stayer
Dandino -
Ran a good race in The Caulfield Cup, will he stay? I'm unsure
Ethiopia -
Ran a good race in The Caulfield Cup, will he stay? I'm unsure
Ethiopia -
Fancied him in my squad of 4 last year which contained Green Moon (Won), Fiorente (2nd) & Kellini (4th), he was disappointing then & he has been badly out of form so far
Fawkner -
Won The Caulfield Cup well but I would imagine that was his 'Cup' & he is a most unlikely stayer
Mourayan -
Old boy who is not good enough especially from a high draw
Seville -
The only Lloyd Williams horse I really like, he gained his first success on Australian soil 2 starts ago where I thought he won quite cosily. He ran a lovely trial in The Cox Plate & looks to be peaking at the right time for the Cup
Super Cool -
Super Cool -
Another not to have been showing a lot, probably won't stay on breeding & his run in the Cox Plate was just ok
Masked Marvel -
(Seen above finishing 2nd on latest start)
Apparently he has been talked of as the number one hope from Lloyd Williams sextet but I can't see it he ran no sort of race in the Cox Plate previous to that I did not like his attitude as he would not go by a lesser animal
Mount Athos -
Was he really unlucky last year? or was he just not up to it. He has looked recalcitrant to me this time around & has been given an awful draw in 22
Royal Empire -
Game as a pebble if he gets in will be hard to keep out of the frame. With my horses falling away I think the 25/1 on offer about him is an insult. Godolphin have a great record in the race & I think this lad is similar to their previous placed horses Central Park, Give The Slip & Crime Scene.
Voleuse De Coeurs -
Hawkspur -
Fancied to run well in Caulfield Cup but undone by the draw that day, has been on the go for ages & may just be feeling it now. Has a bad draw to overcome too
Simenon -
Has now got a run but I can't see him being involved to me 2 miles is too short for him & I'm not sure the race will suit him
Ibicenco -
Another late comer to the Cup party, won his Trial the Geelong Cup in hard fought style, has the back class but his high draw is a concern
Verema -
The French filly, hasn't been seen since winning the Prix Kergorlay in August. Should stay but it looks a hot race this year so I would doubt she is quite good enough
Dear Demi -
Ran a screamer in The Caulfield Cup, should stay & is another nice mare who looks to have a good chance in the Cup. She ran another fantastic trial in Saturday's Mackinnon. Her exuberant owner has backed her to win $2 Million Australian Dollars. On the cusp of a bad draw but will be in their pitching at the finish
Tres Blue -
The newly arrived Gai Waterhouse hope from France with ok form nothing superb, needs to show he can handle better ground & that he can settle in his new environment quickly having only just arrived. He has been working well in the last few days but it is a big ask for a 3 year old especially with a bad draw
Ruscello -
Has earned a tilt at the big one if connections feel he can back up after his gutsy win in Saturday's Lexus, on form he is miles behind the main British & French contenders but the positive is he has now won down under although if he does run he has the worst draw to overcome
1st: Seville
2nd: Dear Demi3rd: Royal Empire
4th: Sea Moon
04:00 Flemington Emirates Melbourne Cup Handicap Grade 1
All 3 in Exacta & Trifecta
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