The best Derby trial of them all is the centrepiece of York's May fixture; The Dante has a long & illustrious history, named after the Dante the last Northern trained winner of the Derby & one of the best horses to have ever graced the hallowed racing turf of this country. The race named in his honour has produced 9 Derby winners;
St Paddy 1960, Shirley Heights 1978, Shahrastani 1986, Reference Point 1987, Erhaab 1994, Benny The Dip 1997, North Light 2004, Motivator 2005 Authorized 2007 & Workforce who became the first horse to be beaten in the Dante to go on & win at Epsom in 2010.
Countless other top class horses have come from the race namely Rheingold 1972 (4 x Group 1 winner including an Arc), Environment Friend 1991 (Coral Eclipse Group 1 '91), Classic Cliche 1995 (St Leger & Ascot Gold Cup Group 1), Sakhee 2000 (Juddmonte International & Arc De Triomphe Group 1), Moon Ballad 2002 (Dubai World Cup Group 1) & Cape Blanco 2010 (5 x Group 1 winner in Ireland & The USA).
This year's renewal is a select affair with only 6 runners lining up due to the prevailing weather at the Knavesmire, hopefully by tomorrow the ground will be no worse than good to soft (after a day on unbroken sunshine, although I would imagine it will ride on the dead side) this should therefore mean that True Story runs & if so all eyes will be on him, he announced himself this season by annihilating the opposition in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket a month ago beating Obliterator (who himself pulled a long way clear is reportedly going for The Irish 2000 Guineas). Barley Mow who was 4th at Newmarket has since come out & won a Listed race back at HQ while Somewhat at least finished 3rd in last week's Dee Stakes.
Visually it was his ability to ease himself into contention & pull away that makes True Story exciting, hopefully the ground will not be too much of an issue, his sire Manduro despite being by Monsun excelled on better ground. The dam's side off his pedigree offers hope as his mother though unraced is a Darshaan mare & her mother Rosefinch showed a useful level of ability on soft back in the early 90's in France.
Visually it was his ability to ease himself into contention & pull away that makes True Story exciting, hopefully the ground will not be too much of an issue, his sire Manduro despite being by Monsun excelled on better ground. The dam's side off his pedigree offers hope as his mother though unraced is a Darshaan mare & her mother Rosefinch showed a useful level of ability on soft back in the early 90's in France.
Bunker's form from last season was boosted on Sunday as Karakontie won the French 2000 Guineas, previous to that he had won The Jean Luc Lagardere on Arc Day. Clearly Karakontie has improved massively since then & I doubt if they met again that Bunker would hold sway again as that day at Deauville, Karakontie pulled far too hard which allowed Bunker the opportunity to get back past him. Previous to that Deauville win Bunker had been slammed by Berkshire at Royal Ascot (see picture below) who did not take up his entry in the Dante as I had hoped, plans are fluid for him at present. Bunker should cope with the ground but it will tax his stamina which I believe is suspect as he is by a poor Green Desert mare. He is clearly a horse with potential but he really did not strike me as a Derby prospect last season.
Arod has come into the Derby picture on the back of a an easy 5 length Windsor maiden victory last month, he beat trees that day & the form is worth nothing again it is more the style of the victory that got people talking. On breeding he should handle the ground & his dual Derby winning trainer knows what it takes so in what looks overall a weak renewal especially if the favourite either does not run or handle the ground he would have a chance of burgling a Group 2.
Odeon won his maiden even more impressively than Arod this time at Redcar by 9 lengths, the form amounts to very little like Arod's but you couldn't help be taken by it, he is clearly above average & deserves his step up but is double the price of a horse with a similar profile which is purely down to his trainer James Given; though not a stranger to success he does not have the reputation that Peter Chapple-Hyam does hence the disparity in price between 2 very similar horse. Ground should not inconvenience Odeon & it will be interesting to see how he gets on.
Saab Almanal is still a maiden & steps up markedly in grade which is something you would not normally associate with his skilled trainer, his dam won on soft so the ground should be fine for him. In a normal year you wouldn't give him a chance but if the favourite misses the race then it suddenly becomes quite open.
The Grey Gatsby steps up in trip after running badly in the 2000 Guineas, he is exposed but at least he is exposed at Group level however a step up in trip does not look like what he needs & his stamina is far from guaranteed.
A non betting race for me, True Story is short enough for the Derby anyway so I wouldn't even recommend backing him ante post for that.
Last year's Oaks 2nd & 3rd return as 4yo's in The Middleton Stakes Group 3 over 1m2f, Secret Gesture is a small filly so this trip will most likely her optimum, ground is no issue for her & with her stable in good form she will be hard to beat. The Lark broke through at pattern level needing all of the 1m6f at Doncaster in last season's Park Hill, she will also appreciate the ground & although she must give 2lbs to her rivals over a trip that is minimum she must be respected given her ability to handle the ground.
Ambivalent despite being by Authorized excels on decent ground, she ran an incredible race in Dubai when a fast finishing 3rd in The Sheema Classic, considering she won a Group 1 last season under a masterful Johnny Murtagh ride she escapes the penalty here so is quite well in, if the ground has dried at all by thursday she can be given a chance but that does look unlikely.
Gifted Girl handles some give & ran ok on her seasonal debut behind two classy fillies, I've never been completely convinced that she stays well enough.
Mango Diva maintained her progression through to the end of last season winning at Listed & Group 3 level, she has yet to race on genuine soft ground so it is a slight unknown, breeding suggests she will be ok on it & she could have more to offer as a 4yo. This is Odeliz's ground as she was all at sea on a faster surface at Newmarket last time, she is a useful filly but this is another tough race where she faces at least 3 fillies who have potential to improve again this season. Quiz Mistress is much better over further & does handle conditions which would give her some sort of chance but she is exposed at a minor pattern level so would need the opposition to perform well below their best to get involved judged on her last 2 runs. Sinaadi faces a huge task on ground that will not be too her liking, she is just an average handicapper. Thistle Bird is a decent mare who is best fresh as she showed at the start of last season, she is now 6 & I would hope that at least one of the 4yo's have more to offer.
Think Secret Gesture 7/2 has an excellent chance in this with her stable in form. (2nd)
The opening 5f handicap is a lottery, northern horses have dominated in recent years as have low drawn runners. Top weight Magical Macey can sometimes go well first time out but his starting mark will make it very tough. Ballesteros has not won for some time but adores soft ground, his mark is a couple of lbs too high but his stable is going well. Bogart did the majority of his running last season on the knavesmire, he is a fast horse who has got an awkward draw to contend with first time out, ground should be ok for this son of Bahamian Bounty even though he has little soft ground form in the book, maybe one for another day. Doc Hay is a classy sprinter on his day & is now in the care of Brian Ellison, he has not shown much in two runs this year, ground is fine for him & could easily be sitting on a big run. Monsieur Joe is a a Group 3 winner on soft ground at his best, he did not show much during the winter in Dubai, is capable on his day but that is hard to predict. Desert Law is sitting on a huge performance but I think the ground has scuppered that on Thursday as he really needs top of the ground, showed a good level in Dubai this year & is a name to remember back on a better on a sounder surface over 5f.
Secret Asset is so in & out you would just never know what to expect, raw ability is there & he will handle the ground but will he put his best foot forward. Ashpan Sam ran well on faster ground off his new mark at Newmarket last time to suggest he can remain competitive, he has his favoured ground on Thursday & Ryan Moore is booked, big run expected. Old Ancient Cross bids to win this race for the 3rd time in 4 years, he has won it off 89 & 92, tomorrow he races off 97 the same rating that he won last season's Ayr Silver Cup from. Will have be primed for this & despite his advancing years cannot be discounted. Inxile has been a quality horses over the years winning 9 times at Listed & once at Group 3 level predominantly in Ireland, he has yet to win a handicap & has not won for 2 years. Judge N'Jury is another old timer who has had a brilliant career, he won this 2 years ago off 87, tomorrow he's off 95 which is a nice mark considering he was competitive off higher last year, ground is ok for him. Stablemate Secret Witness backs up like he has done for the last 2 years, his mark gives him a chance but it will be best to see how he runs on Wednesday first. Kyleakin Lass is extremely frustrating as she has promised more than she has delivered, she has yet to win off any higher than 88 but has been very competitive from higher marks suggesting she is more than up to winning one of these big handicaps, perhaps she has never truly had conditions to suit like she does on Thursday with the only issue being her high draw. Long Awaited is a similar type to Kyleakin Lass he has promised much more than he has so far achieved, acts with cut & has a cracking draw to give him a real chance on Thursday.
Normal Equilibrium got back on the winning trail at Lingfield on Saturday, he has an excellent turn of foot & as a 4yo should have more to offer as a sprinter. Lady Gibraltar improved throughout last season despite not winning, her best form has come when visored & she usually takes a run or two to get going. Elusivity has never truly progressed as a sprinter spending the majority of his career making up the numbers in Group races now back in handicaps he looked on his way back before his last start where he again reverted to type by disappointing when fancied. This is tougher than Best Trip is used too, Top Boy possess a decent level of ability & has been running well of late, now a 4yo he can start to progress.
Pandar blew a Scoop6 2 weeks ago, he was thought of as Group class when he first came to this country but made little impact at that level or in handicaps until he surprised everyone off a career low mark, back up in grade it will be interesting to see if that was just a fluke or whether he has turned a corner.
Couldn't convince myself to have a bet in this so would rather watch for the future.
The Hambleton Stakes a listed handicap is less competitive than normal, in recent years winners have come from a very rigid weight range between 9-1 - 9-4 aged 4 or 5 until Navajo Chief came through the rain on his favourite course aged 6. He is back to defend his crown this year off 97, 3lbs lower than last year & fully 6lbs lower than his best winning mark, this is due to going missing after winning this race last year. He looks to have been laid out for a repeat bid with the man Kieran Fallon back on board.
Levitate remains too high at present as does Tales Of Grimm judged on his runs in Dubai over the winter. Queensberry Rules starts off his 4yo campaign off 100 which is far too high for me, he remains with potential but on the plus side this is not as competitive as normal so he has chances if ready to roll. Prince Of Johanne is a grand old horse but the ground is against him here first time out. Spa's Dancer stayed on late in the piece at Newbury latest, his best form is at Sandown & he looks quite harshly done by in this. Sweet Lightning went close in the Lincoln which is strong form judged on Ocean Tempest's & Tullius's recent exploits, he has been beaten twice since though & is passed over here. Stablemate Ingleby Angel is no better off at the weights than he was with Fort Bastion at Thirsk last time although that was Fort Bastion's lowest ever mark & he duly took advantage, he is gone up since & back up in grade is vulnerable whereas Ingleby Angel is still higher than his last winning mark in a better race.
Fury like Navajo Chief is a past winner of this race 2 years ago off 104, he now races from 95 after not wining since & having a awful season last time around, for a horse of his ability overall he has been disappointing, he has been given a proper chance on Thursday but I would rather go with Navajo Chief who knows how to win more than Fury does. Askaud & Alfred Hutchinson look to have work to do in this grade.
Navajo Chief 8/1 Bet365 / BETVICTOR for me in a less competitive race than last year's. (WON)
The last 3 races on the card do not interest me in the slightest, 3yo sprint conditions races are always difficult at the best of times, a 2yo maiden on soft ground where form is limited & the staying handicap which could be a real slog by the time 5pm comes around.
@fttfracing
A non betting race for me, True Story is short enough for the Derby anyway so I wouldn't even recommend backing him ante post for that.
Last year's Oaks 2nd & 3rd return as 4yo's in The Middleton Stakes Group 3 over 1m2f, Secret Gesture is a small filly so this trip will most likely her optimum, ground is no issue for her & with her stable in good form she will be hard to beat. The Lark broke through at pattern level needing all of the 1m6f at Doncaster in last season's Park Hill, she will also appreciate the ground & although she must give 2lbs to her rivals over a trip that is minimum she must be respected given her ability to handle the ground.
Ambivalent despite being by Authorized excels on decent ground, she ran an incredible race in Dubai when a fast finishing 3rd in The Sheema Classic, considering she won a Group 1 last season under a masterful Johnny Murtagh ride she escapes the penalty here so is quite well in, if the ground has dried at all by thursday she can be given a chance but that does look unlikely.
Gifted Girl handles some give & ran ok on her seasonal debut behind two classy fillies, I've never been completely convinced that she stays well enough.
Mango Diva maintained her progression through to the end of last season winning at Listed & Group 3 level, she has yet to race on genuine soft ground so it is a slight unknown, breeding suggests she will be ok on it & she could have more to offer as a 4yo. This is Odeliz's ground as she was all at sea on a faster surface at Newmarket last time, she is a useful filly but this is another tough race where she faces at least 3 fillies who have potential to improve again this season. Quiz Mistress is much better over further & does handle conditions which would give her some sort of chance but she is exposed at a minor pattern level so would need the opposition to perform well below their best to get involved judged on her last 2 runs. Sinaadi faces a huge task on ground that will not be too her liking, she is just an average handicapper. Thistle Bird is a decent mare who is best fresh as she showed at the start of last season, she is now 6 & I would hope that at least one of the 4yo's have more to offer.
Think Secret Gesture 7/2 has an excellent chance in this with her stable in form. (2nd)
The opening 5f handicap is a lottery, northern horses have dominated in recent years as have low drawn runners. Top weight Magical Macey can sometimes go well first time out but his starting mark will make it very tough. Ballesteros has not won for some time but adores soft ground, his mark is a couple of lbs too high but his stable is going well. Bogart did the majority of his running last season on the knavesmire, he is a fast horse who has got an awkward draw to contend with first time out, ground should be ok for this son of Bahamian Bounty even though he has little soft ground form in the book, maybe one for another day. Doc Hay is a classy sprinter on his day & is now in the care of Brian Ellison, he has not shown much in two runs this year, ground is fine for him & could easily be sitting on a big run. Monsieur Joe is a a Group 3 winner on soft ground at his best, he did not show much during the winter in Dubai, is capable on his day but that is hard to predict. Desert Law is sitting on a huge performance but I think the ground has scuppered that on Thursday as he really needs top of the ground, showed a good level in Dubai this year & is a name to remember back on a better on a sounder surface over 5f.
Secret Asset is so in & out you would just never know what to expect, raw ability is there & he will handle the ground but will he put his best foot forward. Ashpan Sam ran well on faster ground off his new mark at Newmarket last time to suggest he can remain competitive, he has his favoured ground on Thursday & Ryan Moore is booked, big run expected. Old Ancient Cross bids to win this race for the 3rd time in 4 years, he has won it off 89 & 92, tomorrow he races off 97 the same rating that he won last season's Ayr Silver Cup from. Will have be primed for this & despite his advancing years cannot be discounted. Inxile has been a quality horses over the years winning 9 times at Listed & once at Group 3 level predominantly in Ireland, he has yet to win a handicap & has not won for 2 years. Judge N'Jury is another old timer who has had a brilliant career, he won this 2 years ago off 87, tomorrow he's off 95 which is a nice mark considering he was competitive off higher last year, ground is ok for him. Stablemate Secret Witness backs up like he has done for the last 2 years, his mark gives him a chance but it will be best to see how he runs on Wednesday first. Kyleakin Lass is extremely frustrating as she has promised more than she has delivered, she has yet to win off any higher than 88 but has been very competitive from higher marks suggesting she is more than up to winning one of these big handicaps, perhaps she has never truly had conditions to suit like she does on Thursday with the only issue being her high draw. Long Awaited is a similar type to Kyleakin Lass he has promised much more than he has so far achieved, acts with cut & has a cracking draw to give him a real chance on Thursday.
Normal Equilibrium got back on the winning trail at Lingfield on Saturday, he has an excellent turn of foot & as a 4yo should have more to offer as a sprinter. Lady Gibraltar improved throughout last season despite not winning, her best form has come when visored & she usually takes a run or two to get going. Elusivity has never truly progressed as a sprinter spending the majority of his career making up the numbers in Group races now back in handicaps he looked on his way back before his last start where he again reverted to type by disappointing when fancied. This is tougher than Best Trip is used too, Top Boy possess a decent level of ability & has been running well of late, now a 4yo he can start to progress.
Pandar blew a Scoop6 2 weeks ago, he was thought of as Group class when he first came to this country but made little impact at that level or in handicaps until he surprised everyone off a career low mark, back up in grade it will be interesting to see if that was just a fluke or whether he has turned a corner.
Couldn't convince myself to have a bet in this so would rather watch for the future.
The Hambleton Stakes a listed handicap is less competitive than normal, in recent years winners have come from a very rigid weight range between 9-1 - 9-4 aged 4 or 5 until Navajo Chief came through the rain on his favourite course aged 6. He is back to defend his crown this year off 97, 3lbs lower than last year & fully 6lbs lower than his best winning mark, this is due to going missing after winning this race last year. He looks to have been laid out for a repeat bid with the man Kieran Fallon back on board.
Levitate remains too high at present as does Tales Of Grimm judged on his runs in Dubai over the winter. Queensberry Rules starts off his 4yo campaign off 100 which is far too high for me, he remains with potential but on the plus side this is not as competitive as normal so he has chances if ready to roll. Prince Of Johanne is a grand old horse but the ground is against him here first time out. Spa's Dancer stayed on late in the piece at Newbury latest, his best form is at Sandown & he looks quite harshly done by in this. Sweet Lightning went close in the Lincoln which is strong form judged on Ocean Tempest's & Tullius's recent exploits, he has been beaten twice since though & is passed over here. Stablemate Ingleby Angel is no better off at the weights than he was with Fort Bastion at Thirsk last time although that was Fort Bastion's lowest ever mark & he duly took advantage, he is gone up since & back up in grade is vulnerable whereas Ingleby Angel is still higher than his last winning mark in a better race.
Fury like Navajo Chief is a past winner of this race 2 years ago off 104, he now races from 95 after not wining since & having a awful season last time around, for a horse of his ability overall he has been disappointing, he has been given a proper chance on Thursday but I would rather go with Navajo Chief who knows how to win more than Fury does. Askaud & Alfred Hutchinson look to have work to do in this grade.
Navajo Chief 8/1 Bet365 / BETVICTOR for me in a less competitive race than last year's. (WON)
The last 3 races on the card do not interest me in the slightest, 3yo sprint conditions races are always difficult at the best of times, a 2yo maiden on soft ground where form is limited & the staying handicap which could be a real slog by the time 5pm comes around.
@fttfracing
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