Hello & welcome to my blog ahead of the 3rd Classic of the Flat season as 17 fillies take on the undulations of Epsom's unique racecourse. Epsom itself is an undervalued & underused track as it's 1m4f course offers the true test of a thoroughbred racehorse; balance, temperament, stamina & class. After a week of sunshine & showers the ground is currently on the good side, there is some rain forecast over the next 48 hrs so I would be expecting the ground to be no worse than good to soft & hopefully at best genuine good Flat racing ground.
Taghrooda has long been favourite for the Oaks after winning on debut at 20/1 as a 2yo she came out at the Guineas meeting to relentlessly gallop away with The Pretty Polly Stakes unfortunately for her none of her form has worked out as she has beaten distinctly average animals on both starts but that's not her fault. In the build up to the big race she has been disposed at the top of the market which is something few could have foreseen a month back.
She will stay as she will most likely in time get much further from a stout staying Aga Khan family which could be her undoing as she has yet to show a true change of pace for all she looked a real galloper at Newmarket it was more of a grinding performance & at Epsom you need a gear change.
Marvellous bounded into contention after running away with the Irish 1000 Guineas on awful ground last week, stamina could well be an issue as she was probably flattered by her eventual Guineas winning distance as Lightning Thunder was tiring late on, her mum won the Cherry Hinton as a 2yo & got no further than 6f so will she truly get home those last 2 furlongs will be her true test.
Aidan O'Brien also fields two more runners in Palace & Dazzling; Palace has had alot happen to her in a short period of time, since her debut on April 2nd this year she has run 4 times in in 8 weeks including a never nearer 5th on soft ground behind her stablemate Marvellous in the Guineas the other day, Friday will be her 5th start in just 9 weeks in another Classic that on breeding she is far from certain to stay.
Dazzling was well put in her place behind Tarfasha last time at Naas & I can see no reason at all why she would be able to turn around that form here.
Ihtimal has been aimed at this since her fine 3rd in The 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, she had an excellent winter in Dubai & confirmed her improvement with her last run. She was not stopping the day she won the UAE Oaks at 10f by 10 lengths earlier in the year, on breeding & her style of racing she has every chance of getting home with the added assistance of Kieran she has a excellent chance.
Tarfasha burst onto the Oaks scene with a stylish success in The Blue Wind Stakes at Navan she is one of a plethora of talented 3yo fillies from the Dermot Weld stable, she is a half sister to Saddler's Rock so stamina will be her forte but she appears also to have a change of gear that her owner mate & better fancied rival Taghrooda has yet to show, the recent dry spell will have helped her as her trainer has been very vocal that she will not be favored by soft ground.
In the opposite camp is David Simcock trainer of shock Musidora winner Madame Chiang (white colours) who is said to be favoured by soft ground, she is unbeaten in both her completed starts & won in the style of a progressive filly last time out, I cannot see why she would not act on no worse than good ground.
Lilly Rules (noseband) has been supplemented into the race after an excellent performance in The Musidora at York showing stamina that few believed she had, this is a different ball game & surely she is far too exposed to be winning an Oaks.
Her trainer also fields the maiden Momentus (in green colours with red hat against the rail in picture below) who finished a staying on 3rd in The Oaks Trial at Lingfield, this a huge ask especially in such a competitive renewal.
Honor Bound (yellow) won a messy Lingfield Oaks Trial & has changed hands since but really does have a lot on in what looks a quality renewal of this race for all she is clearly improving she needs to find upwards of 20lbs with the best of these.
Stablemate Regardez still only has a maiden win to her name but is a decent stamp of a filly. She looked one paced in The Musidora which I would attribute to the state of the ground that day, she is an interesting runner if the ground does come up as I expect it too & is a lively outsider as she was her yard's main Oaks hope as a 2yo.
Marsh Daisy has made rapid strides in the last month winning her maiden at Ascot a race that has already produced 2 winners, she then went to Goodwood & produced an authoritative display to easily win The Height of Fashion Stakes, she is a granddaughter of the best Derby winner I have personally ever seen in Lammtarra so stamina is no issue & she looks the type that would handle any ground, a filly who is improving at the right time she looks a real player in this.
Volume (green & black checks) made all her to win her trial at Newbury just holding off Lahinch Classics, she will do well to perform the same tactics in an Oaks & there is a slight stamina doubt for me.
Inchilia (yellow & black against the rail) was expected to win at Newbury last time so it was disappointing she could only finish 4th, she is readily passed over upped to this better grade.
Amazing Maria makes her seasonal return her after being ruled out of a couple of early dates in a Guineas trial & the Guineas itself, she appeared at Breakfast with the Stars last week working well on the soft ground under big race jockey Frankie Dettori (see photo).
Her sire Mastercraftsmen gained his first Classic winner last Sunday courtesy of The Grey Gatsby in The French Derby & her appears to be installing unexpected stamina into his progeny so even though she is by an american bred mare who stayed no further than 6f you couldn't say for certain that she wouldn't stay judged on her performances as a 2yo at Goodwood. Her stablemate Island Remede has little chance on all known form & is here to give her owners a nice day out.
Similar comments apply to Cheshire Oaks winner Anipa (left in light blue) who found everything going her way up in the North West last time, she beat Bright Approach in that, who had previously beaten Marsh Daisy at Newbury but the latter has improved since & Bright Approach hated Chester. She is quite a small filly & others will be improving past her come Friday.
Taghrooda has long been favourite for the Oaks after winning on debut at 20/1 as a 2yo she came out at the Guineas meeting to relentlessly gallop away with The Pretty Polly Stakes unfortunately for her none of her form has worked out as she has beaten distinctly average animals on both starts but that's not her fault. In the build up to the big race she has been disposed at the top of the market which is something few could have foreseen a month back.
She will stay as she will most likely in time get much further from a stout staying Aga Khan family which could be her undoing as she has yet to show a true change of pace for all she looked a real galloper at Newmarket it was more of a grinding performance & at Epsom you need a gear change.
Marvellous bounded into contention after running away with the Irish 1000 Guineas on awful ground last week, stamina could well be an issue as she was probably flattered by her eventual Guineas winning distance as Lightning Thunder was tiring late on, her mum won the Cherry Hinton as a 2yo & got no further than 6f so will she truly get home those last 2 furlongs will be her true test.
Aidan O'Brien also fields two more runners in Palace & Dazzling; Palace has had alot happen to her in a short period of time, since her debut on April 2nd this year she has run 4 times in in 8 weeks including a never nearer 5th on soft ground behind her stablemate Marvellous in the Guineas the other day, Friday will be her 5th start in just 9 weeks in another Classic that on breeding she is far from certain to stay.
Dazzling was well put in her place behind Tarfasha last time at Naas & I can see no reason at all why she would be able to turn around that form here.
Ihtimal has been aimed at this since her fine 3rd in The 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, she had an excellent winter in Dubai & confirmed her improvement with her last run. She was not stopping the day she won the UAE Oaks at 10f by 10 lengths earlier in the year, on breeding & her style of racing she has every chance of getting home with the added assistance of Kieran she has a excellent chance.
Tarfasha burst onto the Oaks scene with a stylish success in The Blue Wind Stakes at Navan she is one of a plethora of talented 3yo fillies from the Dermot Weld stable, she is a half sister to Saddler's Rock so stamina will be her forte but she appears also to have a change of gear that her owner mate & better fancied rival Taghrooda has yet to show, the recent dry spell will have helped her as her trainer has been very vocal that she will not be favored by soft ground.
In the opposite camp is David Simcock trainer of shock Musidora winner Madame Chiang (white colours) who is said to be favoured by soft ground, she is unbeaten in both her completed starts & won in the style of a progressive filly last time out, I cannot see why she would not act on no worse than good ground.
Lilly Rules (noseband) has been supplemented into the race after an excellent performance in The Musidora at York showing stamina that few believed she had, this is a different ball game & surely she is far too exposed to be winning an Oaks.
Her trainer also fields the maiden Momentus (in green colours with red hat against the rail in picture below) who finished a staying on 3rd in The Oaks Trial at Lingfield, this a huge ask especially in such a competitive renewal.
Honor Bound (yellow) won a messy Lingfield Oaks Trial & has changed hands since but really does have a lot on in what looks a quality renewal of this race for all she is clearly improving she needs to find upwards of 20lbs with the best of these.
Stablemate Regardez still only has a maiden win to her name but is a decent stamp of a filly. She looked one paced in The Musidora which I would attribute to the state of the ground that day, she is an interesting runner if the ground does come up as I expect it too & is a lively outsider as she was her yard's main Oaks hope as a 2yo.
Marsh Daisy has made rapid strides in the last month winning her maiden at Ascot a race that has already produced 2 winners, she then went to Goodwood & produced an authoritative display to easily win The Height of Fashion Stakes, she is a granddaughter of the best Derby winner I have personally ever seen in Lammtarra so stamina is no issue & she looks the type that would handle any ground, a filly who is improving at the right time she looks a real player in this.
Volume (green & black checks) made all her to win her trial at Newbury just holding off Lahinch Classics, she will do well to perform the same tactics in an Oaks & there is a slight stamina doubt for me.
Inchilia (yellow & black against the rail) was expected to win at Newbury last time so it was disappointing she could only finish 4th, she is readily passed over upped to this better grade.
Amazing Maria makes her seasonal return her after being ruled out of a couple of early dates in a Guineas trial & the Guineas itself, she appeared at Breakfast with the Stars last week working well on the soft ground under big race jockey Frankie Dettori (see photo).
Her sire Mastercraftsmen gained his first Classic winner last Sunday courtesy of The Grey Gatsby in The French Derby & her appears to be installing unexpected stamina into his progeny so even though she is by an american bred mare who stayed no further than 6f you couldn't say for certain that she wouldn't stay judged on her performances as a 2yo at Goodwood. Her stablemate Island Remede has little chance on all known form & is here to give her owners a nice day out.
Similar comments apply to Cheshire Oaks winner Anipa (left in light blue) who found everything going her way up in the North West last time, she beat Bright Approach in that, who had previously beaten Marsh Daisy at Newbury but the latter has improved since & Bright Approach hated Chester. She is quite a small filly & others will be improving past her come Friday.
An excellent addition of the Fillies Classic in which Taghrooda holds strong claims but I will side with the rapidly improving Marsh Daisy 14/1 Betfred / BetVictor with Ihtimal right there in the mix.
The opening race on Investec Oaks day is for older fillies & mares, The Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes run over the mile.
Mango Diva heads them giving 3lbs to all her rivals including a Classic winner. She returned at York when not getting the best of runs behind all the way winner Ambivalent. Will improve but has a job on at these terms.
Amulet was favoured by the race conditions last time when getting the better of Ribbons at Ascot in game style, this a big step up off level weights against genuine Group performers. Butterfly McQueen has never gone on from her maiden win & looks out of her depth here as does Audacia who is again in the search for black type.
Just The Judge last year's Irish 1000 Guineas winner & 1000 Guineas 2nd drops right down in grade her against her own sex having shown in truth very little against the boys in The Earl Of Sefton last time, probably best not to judge her too harshly though as she lacks the scope to really take on the males so back against fillies if she retains any of her ability she will be hard to beat. Masarah like so many of Clive's fillies has been highly tried with little success, you can never truly discount them but she has far too much to find on a good few of her rivals. Melody Of Love was a useful juvenile who was restricted to one run last term, she returned at Lingfield a month back finishing an ok 6th in a much weaker Group 3 than this so she has work to do. Odeliz has had her limitations exposed since an encouraging first run back, she needs soft ground to be really effective.
Thistle Bird battled gamely to win this last year, she ran a screamer in The Nassau afterwards but since that run she has been pretty disappointing, she would have needed her first run back at York last time but at the age of 6 does she still have the necessary improvement in her to fend off her younger rivals.
Zurigha was well put in an equally as good race as this is at Newmarket last time, she seems best on the AWT & handling Epsom could be hard for her.
Non betting event for me.
A potentially cracking 1m2f Investec Wealth & Management Handicap is the 2nd race on Oaks day. Old Tres Coronas appears to be in the form of his life following up a excellent run over course & distance 2 starts back by easily winning at Chester. He then ran the improving Clever Cookie close a week later at York, hard to keep out of the frame in current form.
Aussie Reigns is a highly consistent performer who doesn't know how to run a bad race, of course as a result he is rarely dropped by the handicapper & even with the assistance of crack apprentice Oisin Murphy he has work to do. Farraaj looks held by his current mark judged by his most recent effort. Hi There was disappointing at York after running ok here in The City & Suburban behind Sennockian Star & Soviet Rock, he looks held on that form despite the booking of Ryan Moore. Sennockian Star had been in great form in the early part of the season until a very disappointing run last Monday in The Zetland at Redcar, he won here earlier in the year but may find ot tougher to repel those who renew rivalry on Friday namely Soviet Rock; who has grown into a fine specimen & he duly obliged after an excellent return to win at Lingfield last time. He still appears to be favourably treated & should take all the beating in this.
Clon Brulee returns to these shores after a disappointing campaign for the boys in blue in Dubai earlier in the year where he appeared to never really get to grips with the Tapeta surface, he is on a career high mark as a result of his exploits last year. Many of the horses that spent the winter in Dubai have come back & excelled on their first or 2nd runs back in the UK so it would not be the biggest surprise if he was to figure here.
Salutation has shown little since his win in the Roseberry earlier in the year, as with all Mark Johnston runners you ignore them at your peril but in truth he looks up against it. Gworn is unexposed at this trip & remains with potential on better ground, he should be capable from his current mark. Charles Camoin is handicapped to go very close on a course he goes well at, he didn't enjoy the cut in the ground at the last meeting which is a worry if more rain falls & didn't get the greatest of runs either behind Sennockian Star. That effort can be marked up & he looks ready to strike. Air Pilot has been given a nice looking handicap mark judged on his maiden 2nd to Clever Cookie, he has since come out & won a maiden by a nose, this is tougher but it will be interesting to see how he gets on.
Course specialist Resurge has won the last 2 runnings of this race from marks of 97 & 94 beating old Tres Coronas both times, he will have been laid out for his hat trick bid & from his reduced mark has to enter calculations.
I like Soviet Rock to maintain his upward curve & at bigger odds I will be saving on Charles Camoin E/W.
Godolphin appear to hold a strong hand in the Investec Diomed Stakes with recent Goodwood 1-2 French Navy & Windhoek re-opposing, with ground likely to be less testing than was anticipated last week I would much prefer Windhoek who battled on gamely behind his older owner mate last time, the slight drop back in trip should be no inconvenience to him & he should go close.
French Navy is a horse I have always struggled to get right he looked mulish the time before last at Ascot & then looked as genuine as they come last time.
This is Highland Knight's level & he is effective around this course as he showed when winning on this day 2 years ago making all in the mile handicap, he is most effective from the front so it is concerning that last Saturday's John O'Gaunt winner Penitent is due to run again at Epsom as he will likely pester Highland Knight on the lead not to mention the much improved Graphic. The old boy rolled back the years on Saturday, this requires another big effort though backing up a few days later, on the plus side he was an excellent 2nd in this race last year. Graphic has risen rapidly through the ranks within the last year starting off from 82 to his now current mark of 114, he is game & consistent so warrants respect although with at least 2 others who like to be up there the race could well be set up for a closer.
Gregorian won this race last year in comfortable style, he then went on to run well at The Royal meeting before bursting Soft Falling Rain's bubble at Newbury in The Hungerford however he was pretty disappointing on both his final starts but that could easily be down to the effects of a long season. With his stable remaining in decent form he can be expected to be ready to fire as he has gone well fresh in the past.
Edu Querido has work to do after showing very little on his UK debut, he had a an average Dubai Carnival as well & is best watched.
A race to watch rather than stake.
Over the same distance as the Diomed is a competitive handicap, Red Avenger heads the weights & looks on a stiff mark, he showed little on his return.
Trail Blaze returned to winning ways at Ripon 2 starts back with the help of his riders claim & a reduced mark, since then he has looked held by the handicapper, he faces a tough task to make all against some unexposed rivals. Fury is capable from higher marks than this but showed nothing at York, would need a leap of faith to back him now.
Abseil went into many peoples notebooks including my own after an excellent run on soft ground at Chester from a bad draw, he was pulled out at Sandown last week due to the ground so hopefully it will be no worse than good to soft come Friday as he looks to have a lot in hand from his current mark. Dance And Dance is a proper rogue who I followed over the proverbial cliff last season, he still couldn't win from his lowest mark since 2010 last time & remains one to treat with caution, extremely capable if he wants it but I cannot throw anymore money at him on Friday.
Busatto was progressive until getting well beaten in a lower grade last time out, upped in grade now he is hard to fancy.
I doubt if Farlow truly stays the mile & the handicapper looks to have him at present. Tigers Tale will give a bold sight for local trainer Roger Teal but may just find his mark beyond him. Henry The Aviator had useful form at 3 in decent handicap's, he was disappointing on his final start back in July & after a long layoff presumably through injury he was not over exerted on ground that he hated at Doncaster back in May, on a nice mark if he can resume last year's progression & not without hope.
On current form Velox looks well held by his mark, Llanarmon Lad broke one Scoop6 hunters heart a few weeks back when finishing to good effect down the Thirsk straight, he is up 6lbs in a better race with the assistance of Fallon who has few peers around Epsom. Old Vainglory is a regular in this race he finally won it last year off a mark of 85 after 3 unsuccessful tries 4th off 90 in 2011, 3rd off 92 in 2010 & 3rd off 89 in 2008. He races from the same mark that he won from last year & will have been brought to the boil for another attempt at this race but he is now 10 so surely some of his younger rivals will have him covered. Brocklebank is better on the AW, Spirit Of The Law is regressive, Angelic Upstart goes up in grade after a series of decent efforts but again those have been mostly on the AW. Jacobs Cats won of a mark in the 90's 2 years ago for Richard Hannon but has been steadily regressive ever since, loads to do.
It's not original but Abseil is in my tracker for a reason & I expect him to win this.
A decent renewal of The Surrey Stakes for 3 year olds comes next on this cracking Friday on the Downs, recent York scorer That Is Spirit will be all the rage for the bang in form David O'Meara stable, he has shown good pace to lead on both his outings to date which is an asset at Epsom although for an inexperienced horse this track is quite a test so I would not want to take a short price about him. Miracle Of Medinah appears not to have trained on & is struggling from having such a excellent 2yo season.
Coulsty can from well back to win a similar race at Newmarket last time, that was a big step up on what he had previously shown, it will be tough to confirm that form with a 4lb penalty. Parbold is struggling as a 3yo & is best watched till showing a revival. Silver Treasures provincial French form is little to write home about, he broke his maiden with the help of the stewards last time at lowly La Croise-Laroche which is in a suburb of Lille close to the Belgium border. He faces a huge step up in class as he returns to action in the UK. Windfast showed up well on his last start in similar company at Newmarket, he improved from his first run of the season when outclassed in The Greenham & can be expected to improve again on his 3rd start back after a long absence, well thought of he is a player on a track that should be fine for him.
Penny Drops steps back into Listed company after a good 2nd in a ok handicap at Goodwood last time, she will need to better everything she has shown previously to better the boys here.
For me there was a lot to like about Windfast's run last time & I will take him to get back on the winning trail here.
The opening race on Investec Oaks day is for older fillies & mares, The Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes run over the mile.
Mango Diva heads them giving 3lbs to all her rivals including a Classic winner. She returned at York when not getting the best of runs behind all the way winner Ambivalent. Will improve but has a job on at these terms.
Amulet was favoured by the race conditions last time when getting the better of Ribbons at Ascot in game style, this a big step up off level weights against genuine Group performers. Butterfly McQueen has never gone on from her maiden win & looks out of her depth here as does Audacia who is again in the search for black type.
Just The Judge last year's Irish 1000 Guineas winner & 1000 Guineas 2nd drops right down in grade her against her own sex having shown in truth very little against the boys in The Earl Of Sefton last time, probably best not to judge her too harshly though as she lacks the scope to really take on the males so back against fillies if she retains any of her ability she will be hard to beat. Masarah like so many of Clive's fillies has been highly tried with little success, you can never truly discount them but she has far too much to find on a good few of her rivals. Melody Of Love was a useful juvenile who was restricted to one run last term, she returned at Lingfield a month back finishing an ok 6th in a much weaker Group 3 than this so she has work to do. Odeliz has had her limitations exposed since an encouraging first run back, she needs soft ground to be really effective.
Thistle Bird battled gamely to win this last year, she ran a screamer in The Nassau afterwards but since that run she has been pretty disappointing, she would have needed her first run back at York last time but at the age of 6 does she still have the necessary improvement in her to fend off her younger rivals.
Zurigha was well put in an equally as good race as this is at Newmarket last time, she seems best on the AWT & handling Epsom could be hard for her.
Non betting event for me.
A potentially cracking 1m2f Investec Wealth & Management Handicap is the 2nd race on Oaks day. Old Tres Coronas appears to be in the form of his life following up a excellent run over course & distance 2 starts back by easily winning at Chester. He then ran the improving Clever Cookie close a week later at York, hard to keep out of the frame in current form.
Aussie Reigns is a highly consistent performer who doesn't know how to run a bad race, of course as a result he is rarely dropped by the handicapper & even with the assistance of crack apprentice Oisin Murphy he has work to do. Farraaj looks held by his current mark judged by his most recent effort. Hi There was disappointing at York after running ok here in The City & Suburban behind Sennockian Star & Soviet Rock, he looks held on that form despite the booking of Ryan Moore. Sennockian Star had been in great form in the early part of the season until a very disappointing run last Monday in The Zetland at Redcar, he won here earlier in the year but may find ot tougher to repel those who renew rivalry on Friday namely Soviet Rock; who has grown into a fine specimen & he duly obliged after an excellent return to win at Lingfield last time. He still appears to be favourably treated & should take all the beating in this.
Clon Brulee returns to these shores after a disappointing campaign for the boys in blue in Dubai earlier in the year where he appeared to never really get to grips with the Tapeta surface, he is on a career high mark as a result of his exploits last year. Many of the horses that spent the winter in Dubai have come back & excelled on their first or 2nd runs back in the UK so it would not be the biggest surprise if he was to figure here.
Salutation has shown little since his win in the Roseberry earlier in the year, as with all Mark Johnston runners you ignore them at your peril but in truth he looks up against it. Gworn is unexposed at this trip & remains with potential on better ground, he should be capable from his current mark. Charles Camoin is handicapped to go very close on a course he goes well at, he didn't enjoy the cut in the ground at the last meeting which is a worry if more rain falls & didn't get the greatest of runs either behind Sennockian Star. That effort can be marked up & he looks ready to strike. Air Pilot has been given a nice looking handicap mark judged on his maiden 2nd to Clever Cookie, he has since come out & won a maiden by a nose, this is tougher but it will be interesting to see how he gets on.
Course specialist Resurge has won the last 2 runnings of this race from marks of 97 & 94 beating old Tres Coronas both times, he will have been laid out for his hat trick bid & from his reduced mark has to enter calculations.
I like Soviet Rock to maintain his upward curve & at bigger odds I will be saving on Charles Camoin E/W.
Godolphin appear to hold a strong hand in the Investec Diomed Stakes with recent Goodwood 1-2 French Navy & Windhoek re-opposing, with ground likely to be less testing than was anticipated last week I would much prefer Windhoek who battled on gamely behind his older owner mate last time, the slight drop back in trip should be no inconvenience to him & he should go close.
French Navy is a horse I have always struggled to get right he looked mulish the time before last at Ascot & then looked as genuine as they come last time.
This is Highland Knight's level & he is effective around this course as he showed when winning on this day 2 years ago making all in the mile handicap, he is most effective from the front so it is concerning that last Saturday's John O'Gaunt winner Penitent is due to run again at Epsom as he will likely pester Highland Knight on the lead not to mention the much improved Graphic. The old boy rolled back the years on Saturday, this requires another big effort though backing up a few days later, on the plus side he was an excellent 2nd in this race last year. Graphic has risen rapidly through the ranks within the last year starting off from 82 to his now current mark of 114, he is game & consistent so warrants respect although with at least 2 others who like to be up there the race could well be set up for a closer.
Gregorian won this race last year in comfortable style, he then went on to run well at The Royal meeting before bursting Soft Falling Rain's bubble at Newbury in The Hungerford however he was pretty disappointing on both his final starts but that could easily be down to the effects of a long season. With his stable remaining in decent form he can be expected to be ready to fire as he has gone well fresh in the past.
Edu Querido has work to do after showing very little on his UK debut, he had a an average Dubai Carnival as well & is best watched.
A race to watch rather than stake.
Over the same distance as the Diomed is a competitive handicap, Red Avenger heads the weights & looks on a stiff mark, he showed little on his return.
Trail Blaze returned to winning ways at Ripon 2 starts back with the help of his riders claim & a reduced mark, since then he has looked held by the handicapper, he faces a tough task to make all against some unexposed rivals. Fury is capable from higher marks than this but showed nothing at York, would need a leap of faith to back him now.
Abseil went into many peoples notebooks including my own after an excellent run on soft ground at Chester from a bad draw, he was pulled out at Sandown last week due to the ground so hopefully it will be no worse than good to soft come Friday as he looks to have a lot in hand from his current mark. Dance And Dance is a proper rogue who I followed over the proverbial cliff last season, he still couldn't win from his lowest mark since 2010 last time & remains one to treat with caution, extremely capable if he wants it but I cannot throw anymore money at him on Friday.
Busatto was progressive until getting well beaten in a lower grade last time out, upped in grade now he is hard to fancy.
I doubt if Farlow truly stays the mile & the handicapper looks to have him at present. Tigers Tale will give a bold sight for local trainer Roger Teal but may just find his mark beyond him. Henry The Aviator had useful form at 3 in decent handicap's, he was disappointing on his final start back in July & after a long layoff presumably through injury he was not over exerted on ground that he hated at Doncaster back in May, on a nice mark if he can resume last year's progression & not without hope.
On current form Velox looks well held by his mark, Llanarmon Lad broke one Scoop6 hunters heart a few weeks back when finishing to good effect down the Thirsk straight, he is up 6lbs in a better race with the assistance of Fallon who has few peers around Epsom. Old Vainglory is a regular in this race he finally won it last year off a mark of 85 after 3 unsuccessful tries 4th off 90 in 2011, 3rd off 92 in 2010 & 3rd off 89 in 2008. He races from the same mark that he won from last year & will have been brought to the boil for another attempt at this race but he is now 10 so surely some of his younger rivals will have him covered. Brocklebank is better on the AW, Spirit Of The Law is regressive, Angelic Upstart goes up in grade after a series of decent efforts but again those have been mostly on the AW. Jacobs Cats won of a mark in the 90's 2 years ago for Richard Hannon but has been steadily regressive ever since, loads to do.
It's not original but Abseil is in my tracker for a reason & I expect him to win this.
A decent renewal of The Surrey Stakes for 3 year olds comes next on this cracking Friday on the Downs, recent York scorer That Is Spirit will be all the rage for the bang in form David O'Meara stable, he has shown good pace to lead on both his outings to date which is an asset at Epsom although for an inexperienced horse this track is quite a test so I would not want to take a short price about him. Miracle Of Medinah appears not to have trained on & is struggling from having such a excellent 2yo season.
Coulsty can from well back to win a similar race at Newmarket last time, that was a big step up on what he had previously shown, it will be tough to confirm that form with a 4lb penalty. Parbold is struggling as a 3yo & is best watched till showing a revival. Silver Treasures provincial French form is little to write home about, he broke his maiden with the help of the stewards last time at lowly La Croise-Laroche which is in a suburb of Lille close to the Belgium border. He faces a huge step up in class as he returns to action in the UK. Windfast showed up well on his last start in similar company at Newmarket, he improved from his first run of the season when outclassed in The Greenham & can be expected to improve again on his 3rd start back after a long absence, well thought of he is a player on a track that should be fine for him.
Penny Drops steps back into Listed company after a good 2nd in a ok handicap at Goodwood last time, she will need to better everything she has shown previously to better the boys here.
For me there was a lot to like about Windfast's run last time & I will take him to get back on the winning trail here.
@fttfracing
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