One of my favourite racing day's of the year is nearly here, Investec Derby Day on Epsom's glorious downs. Truly a British sporting institution with all the fun of the fair on the Downs to all the pomp & ceremony of the Queens Stand, it has something for everyone. As with anything that's great in this country we love to belittle it for which I am as guilty as most & yes there have been some distinctly average Derbies over the years but whatever happens the horse that wins on the day is the best as he has to handle the rollercoaster that is Epsom added with that all the pomp & ceremony, above all else you need to stay. I have seen in the press in the build up that if it wasn't for Australia it would be a poor Derby, I cannot see that, we have all the major trial winners who are all promising horses who still have the potential to improve at this stage of their careers, you can never truly judge the quality of a Derby until the following season.
So please lets just get behind Flat racing's greatest race & celebrate it for what it is a real gem.
So please lets just get behind Flat racing's greatest race & celebrate it for what it is a real gem.
Australia the winter favourite has hardened without having set foot on the racecourse since his excellent 3rd in The 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. He is bred to be a Derby winner but that doesn't necessarily mean he will become one, according to reports he possesses a decent amount of speed which is why he was tried in a Guineas so will he truly stay, seems an odd thing to say but sometimes breeding lies.
My biggest query is if he's as good as Aidan says he is why would he run 3 of his own against him?
When they're that good he only runs a couple or none against them, Galileo was his only runner, Camelot was 1 of 2 runners, High Chaparral was 1 of 3 & Ruler Of The World was 1 of 5 (since proved to be a very bad Derby winner).
When they're that good he only runs a couple or none against them, Galileo was his only runner, Camelot was 1 of 2 runners, High Chaparral was 1 of 3 & Ruler Of The World was 1 of 5 (since proved to be a very bad Derby winner).
Will he handle all the razzmatazz of Derby Day basically now is the time for the talking to be over & the horse must justify his reputation, if you're not already on you wouldn't go in again now even with all the offers that are being banded about.
According to the bookie chappies its one of his stablemates that poses the biggest threat that of Geoffrey Chaucer named after the greatest poet of the middle ages. He was 3rd behind 2 rivals who re-oppose here in The Derrinstown Trial first time out this year, he looked slightly flat footed in the run, he will improve for it but I cannot see him improving enough to truly get near to winning a Derby especially on his 2yo form as he has work to do with Kingston Hill on literal reading of the form.
The aforementioned Kingston Hill has been well backed in recent days after an encouraging spin on his favoured soft ground during Breakfast with the Stars last week, to me he ran a dismal race in the 2000 Guineas finishing a never nearer 8th, he doesn't move or look like a Derby winner to me & still has to prove that he is not just a one dimensional soft ground horse so even though the Gypsies believe he is this year's Derby winner as his name has mysteriously appeared in chalk on the well at The Amato Pub in Epsom (funny how its days earlier than normal) I cannot have him.
True Story takes his chance in the big one after what appeared to be a lacklustre run in the Dante last time but hey time has proven it was not so bad as the winner The Grey Gatsby ran away with The French Derby on Sunday, I wasn't as disappointed as I first thought after that as he looked ill at ease throughout the race & travelled with little fluency. I have since found out he was no where near 100% that day & added with the rain he just did not show his true colours, according to Kieran he needs rattling fast ground which is unlikely to get at Epsom so for me a place would be a great effort before he wins a decent race during the summer possibly a Voltigeur before coming back as a top class 4yo for the boys in blue.
Western Hymn is the sectionals buzz horse as he won his maiden at Kempton in the fastest time recorded there last year, he came out & won a conditions event at Newbury when his stable were flying from Snow Sky. He then went to Sandown in desperate ground & hung all over the place before eventually winning, he seems to run on his nerves & would be the type of horse who will be unnerved by the big occasion, his recent spin at Lingfield did little to enhance his chances with his ungainly head carriage on full show.
Fascinating Rock was awarded to Derrinstown in the stewards room after only just failing in the race, he has only ever raced on ground on the soft side but good ground should be fine. Stamina has to be an issue though as his sire Fastnet Rock was a top quality sprinter in Australia, he has only produced 1 horse of note who has won a top race over 12f the 2011 Crown Oaks winner Mosheen.
Ebanoran has been a wise guy horse since his Derrinstown performance, he showed a great turn of foot to take the race by the scruff of the neck & sprint away from his rivals before fading towards the line but just holding on only to lose the race in the stewards room, he has a fabulous mix of speed & stamina in his pedigree by Champion sprinter Oasis Dream out of Irish Oaks / Prix Royal Oak winning mare Ebadiyla who stayed extremely well. The fact that he allowed Fascinating Rock to get back to him is my worry with him as he should have put the race to bed & its strange to say this in light of who is dam is but will he actually truly stay at Epsom or will his fathers speed blunt his mothers stamina.
I can't understand why Arod is currently trading as short as he is, he looked well out of his depth getting scrubbed along in The Dante before suddenly staying on when his rivals flattened out. The way The Grey Gatsby won at the weekend I would be more inclined to say that he would have fended Arod off even if he had got to him sooner, he requires another step up here & would take True Story to reverse form.
Orchestra impressed me with the ease in which he travelled around the bend at Chester before tieing up in the straight, it was his first run of the year on soft ground so he can be forgiven that, a classy looking individual I would prefer him of all the O'Brien runners. Seamie Heffernan has picked up a very decent ride & at current odds makes plenty of appeal especially as he looks like he handles most types of ground.
Romsdal was a nose behind Orchestra at Chester & has been supplemented into the race earlier in the week, he has come along in a short space of time from a 3rd placed finished on debut behind Hymneaois at Doncaster, an easy Kempton maiden win to a excellent 2nd at Chester, he looks much more straightforward than his stablemate Western Hymn & John Gosden has had big priced Derby placed runners before (Tamure 1995 who was a big price in the morning but was backed all day & finished 2nd to Lammtarra, Shantou 25/1 finished 3rd to Shaamit in 1996 & Lucarno 4th in 2007 at 16/1). Not without hope of a place at big odds.
Romsdal was a nose behind Orchestra at Chester & has been supplemented into the race earlier in the week, he has come along in a short space of time from a 3rd placed finished on debut behind Hymneaois at Doncaster, an easy Kempton maiden win to a excellent 2nd at Chester, he looks much more straightforward than his stablemate Western Hymn & John Gosden has had big priced Derby placed runners before (Tamure 1995 who was a big price in the morning but was backed all day & finished 2nd to Lammtarra, Shantou 25/1 finished 3rd to Shaamit in 1996 & Lucarno 4th in 2007 at 16/1). Not without hope of a place at big odds.
Sudden Wonder was well beaten by Snow Sky last time, he looked slightly lost on the downhill section, a nice horse but has work to do to be involved in this.
Kingfisher the last of the Ballydoyle 4 has looked a thoroughly exposed animal, he managed to win a very weak renewal of The Dee Stakes last time out but that is so far removed from this kind of quality, hope he doesn't' ruin the race as I assume he will be on pacemaking duties for his better fancied rivals.
Pinzolo is a massive price considering he has always been held in high regard by his trainer Charlie Appleby, he needed his first run in a race that was not run to suit behind Barley Mow on his next run Silvestre took the bull by the horns & virtually made all he looked in trouble 2 furlongs out but battled on strongly to assert & pull clear from Master Carpenter (who won a Listed race by 7 lengths on his next start) in taking style, I have long been a fan of this horse & felt he had Derby written all over him as a 2yo, the stronger pace will suit much better here so if he is allowed to take his chance I could see him running a huge race. James Doyle takes over as the Godolphin jockey situation takes another turn. I think he could really suit this horse as he has excellent hands which will allow the horse to travel off the likely strong pace.
Impulsive Moment is a big stamp of a horse who excelled himself in The Derby Trial at Sandown behind Western Hymn, he has no pretentions on being a Derby winner but is a nice horse in the making.
Our Channel has already tasted victory at Epsom with an all the way success in The Derby Trial back in April, he received an excellent ride that day & will need something along those lines to be getting involved at the business end here, on breeding his stamina must be a doubt as he was emptying quickly last time. Trainer does know how to win a Derby as he showed when expertly producing Shaamit in 1996 but I can't see this fella adding to that here.
Red Galileo has not settled in either of his two starts this year ending up on both occasions being well beaten in Derby Trials at Sandown & Lingfield, he needs to learn to settle to have any chance of lasting the trip & even if he does he has a mountain to climb on what he has shown so far.
With the injury to Snow Sky I was thrown into disarray but with a fresh perspective I am taking two in this year's race Orchestra 14/1 Bet365 / SkyBet / BetVictor / Stan James / William Hill & at much bigger odds Pinzolo 66/1 Bet365 / Stan James.
The Investec Out of the Ordinary Handicap provides a truly fantastic opening gambit on Derby day with 3yo's ready to do battle. Mark Johnston runs 3 with Stars Over The Sea heading the weights, he is a real looker & now valuably has course form when staying on to the line in The Derby trial earlier in the year, he went off like a scalded cat at Chester so had no hope of staying the 1m4f on the softish ground. This 1m2f should be his optimum & reunited with Fallon he must be respected.
Double Bluff drops back into handicap company as well after finishing 8th in the Derby trial at Lingfield, a real typical Mark Johnston type he will appreciate the ease in grade. Lyn Valley steps up in trip which should suit, he will also appreciate the better ground he faces on Saturday as opposed to the soft ground on his last start at Haydock, I do think he is a couple of lbs too high though in this grade.
Zampa Manos looks harshly judged on his last AWT victory, he was outclassed in a poor renewal of The Dee Stakes last time. What About Carlo steps up to a trip I feel he will excel over, he hated the really soft ground at Haydock last time which was my big worry & in truth did too much to early being rushed up by Graham Lee expending far too much energy early on. Epsom should hold no fears for him as he has won at Goodwood as a 2yo. Still has much more to offer & will get the toe he needs into the race, definite player. Black Shadow finished a length 2nd to Oaks also ran Honor Bound before breaking his maiden last time out, his mark looks to have suffered as a result of her exploits & those of Tioga Pass who was in 3rd. Al Busayyir is on a hat trick after wins at Beverley & Redcar so far this season, up 8lbs in a tougher grade he has to improve again but is respected as he is in good form. Hymenaois never landed a blow last time on very soft ground at Sandown which considering he had won his maiden on a similar surface was disappointing, it has turned out to be a very strong race with the winner (his stablemate) having run well again since, the 3rd Elite Army won next time, Gothic was an unlucky 2nd next time, Oasis Fantasy 2nd on his next start & Farquhar won comfortably on Saturday. With better ground likely to suit he can be given another chance to see if he can confirm the promise of his maiden win especially in receipt of weight in an excellent race.
Galizzi steps back onto turf after 2 decent runs at Wolverhampton, the form of his most recent start is ok but his mark looks a few lbs higher than ideal for me. Willie Haggas saddles two unexposed horses in Yenhaab & Flippant; Yenhaab was disappointing last time at Newmarket when trying to make all, he found little when headed, the step up trip may help but he needs to improve in this hot race. Flippant looked to really improve for the soft ground last time, she is up in grade & has work to do.
Can't really desert What About Carlo but do like Stars Over The Sea as a horse & Hymnenaois is interesting at the other end of the weights.
Can't really desert What About Carlo but do like Stars Over The Sea as a horse & Hymnenaois is interesting at the other end of the weights.
The 2yo's get their chance to shine on Derby Day in The Woodcote Stakes Listed, years ago it used to be one of the premier 2yo races in the calendar but now only attracts the fast one season wonder calibre of horse. Baitha Alga broke his maiden at Chester last Saturday after a decent first run the previous week, if he runs it will be his 3rd run in as many weeks. Ballymore Castle would have been an unlucky loser at Chester due to interference last time but he showed class to wear down his rivals, mixed messages from that form but the ground was quite testing & he will improve for this better ground, has to go close. Burtonwood was disappointing upped in grade last time, he goes up again here & looks the 2nd string. Billyoakes took the long journey to Hamilton in his stride as he won easily, a speedy horse the 6f should be fine & he is respected.
Fine Prince for local trainer Robert Mills has been 2nd on both his starts to 2 different Hannon inmates, he should find a race but I doubt it will be this one.
Lightning Stride made a huge amount of improvement from his debut when well behind Billyoakes at Newmarket to score in good style at Leicester last time, well worth a go in this grade. Red Icon didn't need to improve a great deal to break his maiden last week after an excellent run at Chester on debut, better ground will be fine for him, quite a compact individual who should thrive on racing he can play a part.
Eccentricity, Mambo Paradise & Mary Ann Bugg are outclassed on what we've seen so far.
Non betting event for me.
Lightning Stride made a huge amount of improvement from his debut when well behind Billyoakes at Newmarket to score in good style at Leicester last time, well worth a go in this grade. Red Icon didn't need to improve a great deal to break his maiden last week after an excellent run at Chester on debut, better ground will be fine for him, quite a compact individual who should thrive on racing he can play a part.
Eccentricity, Mambo Paradise & Mary Ann Bugg are outclassed on what we've seen so far.
Non betting event for me.
The other Group 1 feature on Derby Day is The Coronation Cup run this year in the memory of triple winner St Nicholas Abbey who died last year, not to pour disrespect on him but in truth he never had much competition in each of his 3 wins except maybe his first win when he was all out to beat the excellent Midday. This year's race has a distinctly European feel to it, Cirrus Des Aigles has seen off Treve & Olympic Glory so far this season & attempts to see off another Al Shaqab horse here.
What more can be said about him?
Not much he is just a fabulous racehorse who keeps coming back for more, he is effective on any going between 1m1f - 1m4f all over the world & now has 5 Group 1's too his name & 20 wins in total from 57 starts, remarkably he has only finished outside the first 5 places twice in his career.
Flintshire last year's super impressive Grand Prix De Paris winner was disappointing thereafter but was always thought to be better at 4 & on genuine good ground so connections will be hoping the rain stays away. Big horse who will be a fascinating runner from a yard that has a fantastic record in this race Saint Estephe 1986, In The Wings 1990, Apple Tree 1994, Sunshack 1995, Swain 1996 & Shirocco in 2006.
Empoli is a decent German horse who ran well in behind last year without threatening to win, his 2 runs that he consented to go in the stalls (which is a worry here) in Dubai were decent but he needs more against CDA & Flintshire.
What more can be said about him?
Not much he is just a fabulous racehorse who keeps coming back for more, he is effective on any going between 1m1f - 1m4f all over the world & now has 5 Group 1's too his name & 20 wins in total from 57 starts, remarkably he has only finished outside the first 5 places twice in his career.
Flintshire last year's super impressive Grand Prix De Paris winner was disappointing thereafter but was always thought to be better at 4 & on genuine good ground so connections will be hoping the rain stays away. Big horse who will be a fascinating runner from a yard that has a fantastic record in this race Saint Estephe 1986, In The Wings 1990, Apple Tree 1994, Sunshack 1995, Swain 1996 & Shirocco in 2006.
Empoli is a decent German horse who ran well in behind last year without threatening to win, his 2 runs that he consented to go in the stalls (which is a worry here) in Dubai were decent but he needs more against CDA & Flintshire.
Talent last year's Oaks winner returns to the scene of her greatest triumph, she has not won since either but at least she has run with credit finishing 2nd in The St Leger, her last run was still good but the ground had gone for her & she showed heart to finish 3rd. If she had a run this season then you could have given her a real chance but she may just need this taking on a horse as good as CDA.
Ambivalent has improved in fillies company in the last year & has inherited her mother's gameness (Darrery won the 1m2f handicap on Derby Day back in 1994 when the Derby was run on a Wednesday), she showed grit to get back up at York last time but she did have the fitness edge that day & she has yet to prove she can cut it against the boys even allowing for her flying 3rd finish in the Sheema Classic earlier in the year when she was behind old CDA.
Beacon Lady has been a fabulous story, she has won 7 times, 5 at Brighton / 2 at Epsom including her most recent & probably most impressive victory in The Great Metropolitan Handicap by a whopping 7 lengths, she has risen from a rating of 42 two years ago to now race of 96 in a Group 1. She deserves a go in pattern company but this is flying a little too high but then fair play to her owners for having a go after all is this not what our great sport is about & you never know??
Joshua Tree is just not up to Group 1 class in the UK or France, the main aim of his season will surely be an attempt to win a 4th Canadian International in the Autumn.
Battalion takes a huge step up in class after finishing a disappointing 7th of 7 last time out in Listed company at Newbury, he bolted up on his first start in handicap company at Redcar first time out & remains with potential but this is far too tough.
Cracking renewal of this much maligned race in which to me there is no betting opportunity but it will be fascinating to see Flintshire take on old Cirrus.
The fastest 5f course in the world is another one of Epsom's claim to fame & they will go like the wind in The Dash. 5 6yo's have won in the last 10 years with 4yo's the other dominant force with 3 wins. The weight range is between 8-7 & 9-5. Draw can be an issue down the straight 5f as you don't really want to be out wide in the centre of the course, as the numbering has changed in the last few years the numbers that it tends to favour are low against the stands rail but as Duke Of Firenze proved last year you can win from anywhere if good enough.
I was at Epsom back in April when Caspian Prince tore out of the stalls & never saw another rival as he won comfortably, he he has been beaten twice since but not by far leading all bar the line at Wolverhampton & tiring late on behind Sir Maximilian at Chester. This has been his aim all season so he has to have a huge chance for Tony Carroll.
Smoothtalkinrascal was an unlucky 2nd in this race last year since then he has just been running ok although mostly on ground that has appeared not to suit, he got his head back in front at Musselburgh a couple of starts back & is a player.
Steps is very classy & won well last weekend but has a lot on from top weight, Eton Rifles will need much more rain to get involved in such a competitive race carrying 9-10. Monsieur Joe got back into the winners enclosure at York 2 starts back & still ran well at the same track last week, he has probably had his win though. Racy oh Racy who should have won so many more races, a very fast horse who could easily hit the frame but you wouldn't be confident of a win. Ballesteros is an infrequent winner while Addictive Dream looks to have left his form on the AW from earlier in the year, he could be given a chance if bouncing back from the sprint king Dandy Nicholls.
Free Zone has shown nothing in his last 4 starts & cannot really be fancied as he is still in the handicapper's grip. Former Group 1 winner Tangerine Trees has tumbled a long way in the weights & has a real chance now, he is one of the fastest & ran encouragingly on his reappearance, big player at likely juicy odds.
Swan Song was disappointing upped in grade last week, to me it looked as though it was a step too far for the time being. She has course & distance winning form last year.
Seeking Magic remains on his career high mark, he should be fine with that but he has yet to win at 5f & may need this race for later in the season.
Hopes And Dreams is edging down the weights after a series of poor efforts, he is a Hamilton specialist & has also won over the 6f at Epsom however he remains a few lbs too high. New Fforest is the type to improve again as a 4yo filly at sprint distances after a decent 3yo campaign, not out of this from a stable who has won this before.
Old Judge N'Jury will no doubt run his race but may find things happening faster than his old legs can carry him. Barnet Fair from local trainer Lee Carter is running himself back into form, taking into account his talented apprentice claim he is well in & as long as the ground does not have soft in the total he holds excellent claims. Another local trainer Peter Crate saddles Taajub & Elusivity; Taajub was 4th in 2012 & is well in on his old form if he can bounce back, place chance, Elusivity is a bit of a dog who should have won many more races than he has, ran very well last time & if reproducing that holds excellent claims at the weights but just as likely to not so I couldn't back him.
Even Stevens is a very fast horse who seems to just fade near the death, he showed up well last week but really died late on. Lady Gibraltar has her beloved visor back on, she ran an excellent race on her return at York, she will be Tim Jarvis's first runner & holds outstanding claims, she has the pace to sit in behind or lead. She has no weight on her back & the added assistance of young Joey Haynes who is an excellent little rider. Some may not be fans of the whole Jarvis affair but Tim is a good bloke who I have known for years & he deserves a chance to prove he is not his father.
Excellent race, I will have to wait until nearer the time incase the ground does change with this torrential storm that are expected. On my shortlist are Barnet Fair, Lady Gibraltar both would not want rain. Caspian Prince is solid & Tangerine Trees at a price is tempting.
Immediately after the Derby is an older horse handicap over the full Derby distance, Mirsaale has top weight & returns to the scene of his best performance in last season's Derby Trial, he ran a decent race in a muddling Listed event at Goodwood last time, he is not over big so the weight is a worry. Dare To Achieve won a competitive Listed handicap at Hamilton on his seasonal return, he is still improving & warrants respect from top weight. Al Saham bounced back to his best under an excellent ride at Ascot last time previous to that he had looked in the handicapper's grip, will need to improve again to figure here off his new mark. Blue Surf was slightly short of room at Goodwood in a messy race behind Mirsaale last time out, his best form has come with cut & he needs more for me from this mark. Stepping Ahead is running well but looks in the handicapper's grip. Ex Australian Kellini showed much more last time in that muddling Listed race at Goodwood, he will never have experienced anything like Epsom before & is best watched despite his Group form down under. Open Eagle was fancied in some quarters for the Chester Cup last time, he ran deplorably like he has done on his last 3 starts, looks in the handicapper's pocket.
Blue Wave as with most Mark Johnston inmates has been kept very busy in the last few months, he showed improved form on the AW but has yet to really translate that improvement back onto turf. Cashpoint caused a big shock in the Zetland last week & the rise in weights should put pay to him making another withdrawal here.
Christopher Wren has been in good form on his last 2 starts over much further, I don't really see Epsom suiting him. Alan King's Kuda Huraa could be a handicap blot taking his NH form into account, he ran a very decent race behind an improving horse at Windsor last time, interesting.
Stomachion looked a hard ride & needed all of the 10f at Newmarket last weekend, in the end he won going away & could just be a big improver, mark is not impossible.
Pasakha Boy is only 2lbs off his last winning mark after two encouraging runs this season, he won the 3yo handicap on this card 12 months ago, interesting at a price.
Miss Marjurie excelled herself last time & is respected with her talented trainer going along nicely. Rossetti has plenty on in this grade even though he goes well here. Red Seventy is on a workable mark if his hurdles form is anything to go by but h does have to improve from when he was last seen on the level.
Not a race I would be betting in.
In the last Swiss Cross must have a big chance on winning this race for a 2nd time, now off 85 he showed promise on his first start a month ago. He won this race in 2011 of 92 & was 4th off 94 in 2012. This will have been his target & the 6f here is a unique course so form on it is a massive advantage.
Joshua Tree is just not up to Group 1 class in the UK or France, the main aim of his season will surely be an attempt to win a 4th Canadian International in the Autumn.
Battalion takes a huge step up in class after finishing a disappointing 7th of 7 last time out in Listed company at Newbury, he bolted up on his first start in handicap company at Redcar first time out & remains with potential but this is far too tough.
Cracking renewal of this much maligned race in which to me there is no betting opportunity but it will be fascinating to see Flintshire take on old Cirrus.
The fastest 5f course in the world is another one of Epsom's claim to fame & they will go like the wind in The Dash. 5 6yo's have won in the last 10 years with 4yo's the other dominant force with 3 wins. The weight range is between 8-7 & 9-5. Draw can be an issue down the straight 5f as you don't really want to be out wide in the centre of the course, as the numbering has changed in the last few years the numbers that it tends to favour are low against the stands rail but as Duke Of Firenze proved last year you can win from anywhere if good enough.
I was at Epsom back in April when Caspian Prince tore out of the stalls & never saw another rival as he won comfortably, he he has been beaten twice since but not by far leading all bar the line at Wolverhampton & tiring late on behind Sir Maximilian at Chester. This has been his aim all season so he has to have a huge chance for Tony Carroll.
Smoothtalkinrascal was an unlucky 2nd in this race last year since then he has just been running ok although mostly on ground that has appeared not to suit, he got his head back in front at Musselburgh a couple of starts back & is a player.
Steps is very classy & won well last weekend but has a lot on from top weight, Eton Rifles will need much more rain to get involved in such a competitive race carrying 9-10. Monsieur Joe got back into the winners enclosure at York 2 starts back & still ran well at the same track last week, he has probably had his win though. Racy oh Racy who should have won so many more races, a very fast horse who could easily hit the frame but you wouldn't be confident of a win. Ballesteros is an infrequent winner while Addictive Dream looks to have left his form on the AW from earlier in the year, he could be given a chance if bouncing back from the sprint king Dandy Nicholls.
Free Zone has shown nothing in his last 4 starts & cannot really be fancied as he is still in the handicapper's grip. Former Group 1 winner Tangerine Trees has tumbled a long way in the weights & has a real chance now, he is one of the fastest & ran encouragingly on his reappearance, big player at likely juicy odds.
Swan Song was disappointing upped in grade last week, to me it looked as though it was a step too far for the time being. She has course & distance winning form last year.
Seeking Magic remains on his career high mark, he should be fine with that but he has yet to win at 5f & may need this race for later in the season.
Hopes And Dreams is edging down the weights after a series of poor efforts, he is a Hamilton specialist & has also won over the 6f at Epsom however he remains a few lbs too high. New Fforest is the type to improve again as a 4yo filly at sprint distances after a decent 3yo campaign, not out of this from a stable who has won this before.
Old Judge N'Jury will no doubt run his race but may find things happening faster than his old legs can carry him. Barnet Fair from local trainer Lee Carter is running himself back into form, taking into account his talented apprentice claim he is well in & as long as the ground does not have soft in the total he holds excellent claims. Another local trainer Peter Crate saddles Taajub & Elusivity; Taajub was 4th in 2012 & is well in on his old form if he can bounce back, place chance, Elusivity is a bit of a dog who should have won many more races than he has, ran very well last time & if reproducing that holds excellent claims at the weights but just as likely to not so I couldn't back him.
Even Stevens is a very fast horse who seems to just fade near the death, he showed up well last week but really died late on. Lady Gibraltar has her beloved visor back on, she ran an excellent race on her return at York, she will be Tim Jarvis's first runner & holds outstanding claims, she has the pace to sit in behind or lead. She has no weight on her back & the added assistance of young Joey Haynes who is an excellent little rider. Some may not be fans of the whole Jarvis affair but Tim is a good bloke who I have known for years & he deserves a chance to prove he is not his father.
Excellent race, I will have to wait until nearer the time incase the ground does change with this torrential storm that are expected. On my shortlist are Barnet Fair, Lady Gibraltar both would not want rain. Caspian Prince is solid & Tangerine Trees at a price is tempting.
Immediately after the Derby is an older horse handicap over the full Derby distance, Mirsaale has top weight & returns to the scene of his best performance in last season's Derby Trial, he ran a decent race in a muddling Listed event at Goodwood last time, he is not over big so the weight is a worry. Dare To Achieve won a competitive Listed handicap at Hamilton on his seasonal return, he is still improving & warrants respect from top weight. Al Saham bounced back to his best under an excellent ride at Ascot last time previous to that he had looked in the handicapper's grip, will need to improve again to figure here off his new mark. Blue Surf was slightly short of room at Goodwood in a messy race behind Mirsaale last time out, his best form has come with cut & he needs more for me from this mark. Stepping Ahead is running well but looks in the handicapper's grip. Ex Australian Kellini showed much more last time in that muddling Listed race at Goodwood, he will never have experienced anything like Epsom before & is best watched despite his Group form down under. Open Eagle was fancied in some quarters for the Chester Cup last time, he ran deplorably like he has done on his last 3 starts, looks in the handicapper's pocket.
Blue Wave as with most Mark Johnston inmates has been kept very busy in the last few months, he showed improved form on the AW but has yet to really translate that improvement back onto turf. Cashpoint caused a big shock in the Zetland last week & the rise in weights should put pay to him making another withdrawal here.
Christopher Wren has been in good form on his last 2 starts over much further, I don't really see Epsom suiting him. Alan King's Kuda Huraa could be a handicap blot taking his NH form into account, he ran a very decent race behind an improving horse at Windsor last time, interesting.
Stomachion looked a hard ride & needed all of the 10f at Newmarket last weekend, in the end he won going away & could just be a big improver, mark is not impossible.
Pasakha Boy is only 2lbs off his last winning mark after two encouraging runs this season, he won the 3yo handicap on this card 12 months ago, interesting at a price.
Miss Marjurie excelled herself last time & is respected with her talented trainer going along nicely. Rossetti has plenty on in this grade even though he goes well here. Red Seventy is on a workable mark if his hurdles form is anything to go by but h does have to improve from when he was last seen on the level.
Not a race I would be betting in.
In the last Swiss Cross must have a big chance on winning this race for a 2nd time, now off 85 he showed promise on his first start a month ago. He won this race in 2011 of 92 & was 4th off 94 in 2012. This will have been his target & the 6f here is a unique course so form on it is a massive advantage.
@fttfracing
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