fourtothefloorracing's blog: William Hill Cox Plate Group 1, Moonee Valley Saturday 24th October 2015

Hello there how are you?

It's been awhile....ok it's been months....did you miss me?

As i found myself with a spare few mins the pull of writing a piece was too much to resist especially when it's concerning a tremendous international Group 1 race.

Ok actually having just watched the world's best sprinter #Chautauqua absolutely treat a superb field with exaggerated contempt even arrogance I truly realised that I just had the put my feelings back into print.

So onto the Cox Plate, Internationals are often favoured by the Aussie media when they come down under & none more so than this year's favourite the Aidan O'Brien trained, Ryan Moore ridden Highland Reel who bids to follow in stablemate Adelaide's hoofprints.

The recently returned globetrotter Criterion races for the red hot stable of David Hayes & Tom Dabernig who are currently winning every top race including with the other day's easy Geelong Cup winner Almoonqith.

After a summer spent racing at Sha Tin, Royal Ascot & York, Criterion stepped off the plane to be a dominant winner of the Caulfield Stakes where he had recent Caulfield Cup winner Mongolian Khan back in 3rd.

His stint in the UK was reasonable as at Royal Ascot he was only beaten just under 4 lengths behind Free Eagle & The Grey Gatsby, in behind him that day was Gailo Chop who reopposes here.

At York he finished 5 lengths behind the Champion Golden Horn (who suffered a rare off day), on the face it it was a decent effort considering how the race was run.

He must improve again though to better his 7th placed effort in this race last year especially as this a stronger race.

Old stager Fawkner has been badly undone by the draw on a tight turning track, you do not ideally want to be drawn out wide, he was well beaten last time by Criterion & was in better form when a close 2nd here last year.

Another high quality 8yo takes to the turf in the shape of Happy Trails who can travel like a dream in his races & enjoyed a much cleaner run of the race last time when closing in on Criterion at Caulfield.

Another who has to better his finishing position from last year of 6th, has a bad draw but he is a hold up performer so it should be no inconvenience.

Former Mark Johnston trained Hartnell has made quite an impact since arriving in Australia last year finishing 2nd over an inadequate mile at Warwick Farm before winning a Group 3 over 2000 metres & he followed that with a win in The Group 1 BMW at Rosehill in March.

Whether Moonee Valley's tight turns are what he truly needs for me is debatable as he looked all about stamina in the UK last year winning a Queen's Vase over 3200 metres at Royal Ascot, a Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket over 2600 metres & was 7th in the St Leger.

I saw him race at Epsom early last year & he couldn't handle the turns there so I cannot see how he will cope around Moonee Valley at this trip.

His main hope lies with his in form rider James Mcdonald who for me is one of the best riders riding today in the world so perhaps a decent run is not out of the equation.

The third 8yo in the field is the bang in form Mourinho who has enjoyed a fine preparation so far with a Group 2 & Group 1 win last time at Caulfield where he defeated Fawkner, The Cleaner & Mongolian Khan.

He has won at this 2000 metre trip twice before but that was in a lesser grade & the majority of his best form is at 1600 metres - 1800 metres.

Draw far from ideal for a runner who likes to be on the speed.

The Cleaner is the fourth 8yo, he has become an Australian folk hero with his hard front running exploits at the Valley gaining 19 wins from 52 starts including 5 from 7 at The Valley. He came into this race last year with hope rather than expectation especially considering he was drawn widest of all in 14, he duly expended far too much energy early & didn't get home.

So far this prep he has arguably been in the best form of his life finishing in the first 3 in all 3 starts so far including an excellent win in the Dato' Chin Nam Stakes before a game effort to finish 3rd at Caulfield behind Mourinho.

He has an ideal draw this year for a front runner & if he can expend less this time he holds sound claims of getting involved at the business end.

courtesy of the superb @DarrenBirdie give him a follow & buy his book

Pornichet appears to be the apple of his trainer Gai Waterhouse's eyes but has so far not lived up to the expectation. His best performance so far since his move to Australia was a dominant display in the Doomben Cup Group 1 beating Weary.

Well talked up for his first start this prep he finished a good 2nd in The Warwick Stakes behind Royal Descent, perhaps the slow pace was against him next time but he failed to run his race in The Chelmsford.

It was much more like it next time George Main with a useful 3rd but he again disappointed behind Criterion last time out.

If he follows the same pattern he then he is due a big run stepping up to a trip, that would on the face it appear to be his best although is draw is slightly problematic for yet another who wants to be on the speed early.

Arod divides plenty of opinion in Europe but has developed into a sound miler this season after connections attempted to turn him into a Derby horse last year where he did finish an honourable 4th.

This year the drop back in trip has seen him placed in the Group 1 Lockinge albeit unlike the norm for the race it was a terrible renewal. He then dotted up in just an ok Group 3 at Epsom next time & was well clear of what looks a similarly disappointing field at Ascot (his owner mate the over rated Lightning Spear has let the form down badly since, Cable Bay has since won a bad Group 2 but the form overall is lacking depth).

The piece of form that most appear to pinning there hopes on is a close up 2nd to Europe's Champion Miler Solow in the Sussex where he attempted to make all but was easily held late on, Solow only just does enough in his races in Europe so for me it is unwise to read too much into that piece of form as Arod finished the same distance in front of the likes of Gabriel & Here Comes When as he was entitled to on ratings. Belardo was back in 7th that day just under 5 lengths away, last Saturday he was a closing 2nd to Solow in the QEII only beaten 3 quarters of a length while Gabrial finished about the same distance back as he had at Goodwood.

I don't believe that personally you would give Belardo or Gabrial as high a chance in this as most do with Arod, apart from Solow the miling division in Europe is shockingly poor & I firmly believe this is an up to scratch Australian Group 1 which means Arod in my eyes is not up to it. As a front runner now he has a good draw but he has to deal with The Cleaner & several others here.

Complacent has long been a horse I have had time for since his Spring Champion Stakes win as a 3yo from Criterion, he didn't get the best of runs the next time when he finished a good 2nd in the AAMI Victoria Derby again beating Criterion back in November 2013.

He suffered tendon injuries afterwards & was not seen on the track again until August this year when he finished 12 of 13 but that run was not devoid of promise & under an excellent ride from Sam Clipperton he duly made all at a slow pace to win the Chelmsford over a vastly inadequate 1600 metre trip at 40/1.

Next time out he backed that up with a game effort from the front in the Hill Stakes losing out only to Preferment & Magic Hurricane both of whom have won Group 1's since. He was back in the winner's enclosure next time out with another gutsy all the way win in the Craven Plate.

He stays further but appears to have the speed & tenacity required to cope with 2000m, he doesn't need to lead either & can sit off The Cleaner before kicking on as they enter the straight under the superb James Doyle, holds a huge chance of what is his last run this prep.

Gailo Chop is a useful honest Group 3 to Group 2 performer in France but on the two times he has been tried away from his native land he has been well beaten (U.S last year & Royal Ascot this).

Ground seems key to him as his very best form is on softer going than he will encounter here.

Plenty on his plate for me.

Kermadec is a useful individual who never appears to do anything quickly, always closing in the leaders slowly in his races despite travelling incredibly well beforehand.

He has won this season though with a determined effort to get up in The George Main, last time out he again finished in his slow motion style when just behind Criterion in the Caulfield Stakes on his first start at the 2000m.

He stayed but does he stay well enough in top company that is the question?

Perhaps another worry is does he need softer ground as both his two stakes wins have come on soft ground.

Preferment last year's AAMI Victoria Derby winner has improved again as a 4 year old winning his last two starts in impressive style the Hill Stakes from off the pace & in similar fashion when getting up in the last few strides in the Turnbull.

Has a perfect draw for a hold up horse to come sweeping down the outside, has a huge chance in his current vein of form & must go close.

Highland Reel the horse to which so much of the pre race build up has centred on.

Can he do an Adelaide & win this race again for the Coolmore lads?

Firstly he has had more starts than Adelaide had before winning last year but he has followed a fairly similar path after an unbeaten 2yo career he failed from a poor draw in the French 2000 Guineas before bouncing right back with an excellent run in a up to scratch French Derby behind eventual Arc 3rd New Bay.

He then ran abysmally in the Irish Derby before again bouncing back to win a substandard Gordon Stakes at Goodwood (2nd Scottish has since battled to win a Listed event at Ayr). He then set out on the Cox Plate path by taking in the Secretariat Stakes at Arlington, drenched in sweat the race was run in a huge storm & he was left alone on the lead which was a huge mistake by the other jocks as he never saw another rival, for me you have to take that form with a pinch of salt as he was never tested.

The race was on a par with the quality of Adelaide's one last season.

As his final prep for Australia he ran a useful 5th behind Golden Horn (gives him on a line through Criterion a similar chance to him) in the Irish Champion Stakes, it was a satisfactory effort but perhaps not as eye catching as Adelaide's had been last year in the Niel. Draw is great for a horse who clearly benefits from being on the lead but this is a race with plenty of pace from The Cleaner, Mourinho, Arod, Pornichet & Complacent so he could easily find himself shuffled back early in amongst the pack.

After being headed by Golden Horn last time he seemed to slightly sulk so that is another concern.

I can see the reasons why he is favourite but it's a better quality of race this year & I feel there are reasons to oppose.

The only filly in the lineup is Winx who comes into her toughest assignment to date on the back of 4 straight wins under rules (6th in a trial in between her 2nd & 3rd starts) from the Group 3 Sunshine Coast Guineas over 1600 metres, she followed that with a bloodless victory in the Queensland Oaks over 2200 metres.

She then dropped back to 1300 metres to win the Theo Marks Stakes in the last few strides & she then stepped back to 1800 metres to win the Epsom Handicap which although not as good as this race today she looked in trouble early in the straight but still won with her head in her chest.

She has shown the ability to act from 1300 metres to 2400 metres (2nd in Australian Oaks) so is an extremely versatile filly with no weight on her back & a rider in Hugh Bowman who truly believes in her ability.

This race could easily be set up for a closer & she has the best finishing kick of any in the field her only issue is the draw, 1 right on the inside which could easily cause no end of problems for her but if she can sit in behind & avoid any interference she holds outstanding claims.