Hello & welcome to a special blog with an early look towards the Melbourne Cup, as the full list of weights have been published earlier this morning it is worth scouting the field for the value now. As each passing year of non British success goes by the raiding party gets stronger & larger. Now the Melbourne Cup is a truly global event so much so that native runners have to fight incredibly hard for a place in the 'Race that stops a nation'.
(This is a living breathing document that I will be updating over the coming weeks with each prep that is run & with any updated info that I receive).
Here are the vital stats form the last 20 years:
10 x 6yo Winners
5 x 4yo Winners
3 x 5yo Winners
2 x 7yo Winners
Draw:
10 Winners Drawn between 1 - 10.
6 Winners Drawn between 11 - 16.
Only 4 Winners Drawn higher than 16;
(3 came from Barrier 21 & 1 from Barrier 22).
Weight:
5 x 54.5kg
2 x 55.5kg
3 x 51kg
2 x 56kg
1 x 56.5kg
1 x 55kg
1 x 53kg
1 x 52.5kg
1 x 52kg
1 x 50kg
1 x 49kg
1 x 58kg,
(Makybe Diva 2005).
(Makybe Diva 2005).
Average Winning Weight between:
51kg - 56kg,
Winner;
likely to carry 54.5kg -55.5kg.
Placed horses;
carry on average between: 53.5kg - 55.5kg
51kg - 56kg,
Winner;
likely to carry 54.5kg -55.5kg.
Placed horses;
carry on average between: 53.5kg - 55.5kg
Lead up races producing most winners:
7 x Caulfield Cup,
(3 x Winners / 3 x placed horses (2nd, 3rd & 4th) / 1 x unplaced horse).
5 x Cox Plate
(2 x Winners, 1 x 3rd & 2 x unplaced).
3 x Geelong Cup,
(Both French Trained Winners & Media Puzzle all 3 Won).
1 x Mackinnon,
(Unplaced: Viewed).
1 x Lexus,
(Winner: Shocking).
1 x Saab Quality,
(Winner: Brew).
Trainers:
Only 3 Trainers have Won multiple Cups in the last 20 years;
Lee Freedman x 3 (Makybe Diva '04, '05 x 2 & Doriemus '95).
Bart Cummings x 3 (Viewed '08, Rogan Josh '99 & Saintly '96).
Dermot Weld x 2 (Vintage Crop & Media Puzzle).
Jockeys:
Glen Boss x 3,
(Makybe Diva '03 - '05).
Damien Oliver x 3,
(Doriemus '95, Media Puzzle '02 & Fiorente 2013).
Horses / Mares & Geldings:
8 x Horses.
7 x Geldings.
5 x Mares,
(includes 3 Wins by Makybe Diva).
SP's:
12 x Winners between 5/2 - 9/1,
(5 favourites have won in the last 20 years)
7 x Winners between 10/1 - 20/1
1 x Winner bigger than 20/1,
(40/1 Viewed 2008).
International Winners:
2 x New Zealand
2 x French
2 x Irish
1 x Japanese
No English Trained horse has ever won the cup but 6 horses whose careers started in England have won the Cup;
Backwood (1921), Beldale Ball (1980), At Talaq (1986, H.Thomson-Jones), Jeune (1994, Geoff Wragg), Green Moon (2012 Harry Dunlop) & Fiorente (2013, Sir Michael Stoute).
So onto a look at the entries for this years renewal, at present there are 149 entries.
In the last 6 years the lowest weighted horses that have made the cut for 'The Cup' are as follows:
50kg / 52kg / 51kg / 51kg / 51kg / 50kg
5 of those were winners had previously won the Lexus Stakes run a couple of days before 'The Cup' itself.
The field size of the last 6 running's has been between 22 - 24 runners, with the Australian handicappers balloting systems those currently sitting below the top 24 in the weights can still get a run right up until a few days before the race so don't give up on your fancy if its carrying between 53kg - 50kg & below the top 24 in the weights.
(Please be aware this is order of entry at present > ballot order can still change the field closer to the race so this is not necessarily the order that they will race in on November 4th).
Winners of the following races will gain automatic entry into the final field on Tuesday November 4th 2014:
Caulfield Cup
Cox Plate
Mackinnon Stakes
Lexus Stakes
1st: Admire Rakti (Japan) 7yo H (Tomoyuki Umeda) 58.5kg 9/2
Strong powerful sort, he is a useful animal back home in the land of the rising sun, he was last seen finishing 13th of 18 in the Tenno Sho Grade 1 back in May this year.
He managed a close up 4th in last year's Japan Cup behind Gentildonna (see video below) & won a Grade 3 over 2m1f in Tokyo last season. His best run this year came when a well beaten 2nd behind the enigmatic Gold Ship at Hanshin in March over 1m5f.
Plenty to do with this much weight on his back if he is to follow his compatriot Delta Blues into the Melbourne Cup record books. Won on Australian debut with a big effort in Caulfield Cup recently, has even more to do under his small penalty & most likely has had his big win down under.
Is now exempt from the Ballot & guaranteed a start in 'The Cup'.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trainer now states she will not run.
3rd: Green Moon 8yo H (Robert Hickmott) 57kg 100/1
Former winner back in 2012 off 53.5kg & 21st last year off 57.5. Has been very much in & out since his big triumph down under, looks weighted up to his very best once more.
(So far has shown little to nothing this spring).
4th: Fawkner 7yo G (Robert Hickmott) 57kg 14/1
Decent horse down under who won last season's Caulfield Cup just getting up on the line, he finished 6th in the Cup off 54.5 afterwards appearing not to get home.
Has returned in good form this campaign finishing 2nd on his return & winning The Group 1 Caulfield Stakes, runs in Saturday's Cox Plate.
For me surely if he were to win a Cup it was last year with less weight.
5th: Red Cadeaux 8yo G (E Dunlop) 57kg 25/1
Fantastic worldwide campaigner who has been 2nd in 2 Melbourne Cups carrying 56.5kg in 2013 & by the the shortest of noses 2nd in 2011 carrying 53.5kg. He was also 8th carrying 55.5 in 2012. You cannot say at his age he is improving especially after his last run, it looks as though the Australian handicapper appears to have given him a mountain to climb.
(Tipped up here in the UK by Pricewise (09/10/14) who has selected him on his last 3 starts in Australia so not a real surprise he has gone in again).
6th: Cavalryman (GB) 8yo G (Saeed Bin Suroor) 57kg 33/1
Grand old horse who has been at the top of his game this season in the UK winning a Princess Of Wales's Stakes & a Goodwood Cup. The hard campaign looked to have caught up with him last time at York & has been done no favours by the Aussie Handicapper here carrying 3 kilos more than when finishing a slightly unlucky 12th in 2012. Unlikely that he will be giving Godolphin & Saeed Bin Suroor a first Cup after going so close over the years with; Crime Scene 2nd in 2009 / Beekeeper 3rd in 2002 / Give The Slip 2nd in 2001 & Central Park 2nd in 1999.
Injured & out of the race.
Injured & out of the race
Trainer now states he will not run.
8th: Protectionist (Ger) 4yo H (Andres Wohler) 56.5kg 7/1
German raider who has been talked up in recent weeks, won a 4 runner Group 3 on his last European start on very soft ground at Deauville (4th has since come out to win a Group 2 on Arc Trials day) in good style looking all about stamina as he has done on all of his racecourse starts which is a worry for a race such as The Melbourne Cup as I have already mentioned horses with speed for shorter distances do hold a good record.
To me he appears to have been harshly treated by the Aussie handicapper.
A share in him has been recently purchased by Australian Bloodstock who will be hoping for better luck with this German import than they had with former German Derby winner Waldpark.
(Ran a promising race in Herbert Power on Australian debut).
9th: Sea Moon 7yo H (Robert Hickmott) 56.5kg 100/1
Useful at his best in the UK winning a Hardwicke before taking his time to acclimatise down under last season. Finished 13th carrying the same weight last year when he appeared not to get home. Has been out already this spring finishing last over an inadequate 1 mile trip.
(Below par on all starts so far including when dropping away badly in Caulfield Cup).
10th: My Ambivalent (GB) 5yo M (Roger Varian) 54.5kg 66/1
Good quality mare who has improved in Europe over the last 2 seasons, entered in Cox Plate & Caulfield Cup. Has experienced a few issues down under which is not ideal in the build up to any race let alone a race of this magnitude, likely to go straight to the cup. Well worth a go at 2 miles as she shapes as though it will suit.
(Video is her fine 3rd in the Sheema Classic).
(Will now race as My Ambivalent down under).
11th: Lucia Valentina 4yo M (Kris Lees) 53kg 8/1
Not a mare I had considered to start with but charged into contention with a dominant display in The Turnbull after a down the field effort on the George Main. Didn't enjoy any luck in the Caulfield Cup coming even wider than the winner Admire Rakti before flying home for 3rd. Not guaranteed to stay the 2 miles but is hard to ignore given her current well being.
12th: Kirramosa 4yo M (J Sargent) 53kg 100/1
Useful filly who won last year's Crown Oaks at Flemington, has so far shown little in good company this campaign & is likely to miss the Cup in favour of a 2nd attempt on the Crown Oaks.
13th: Hawkspur 5yo G (Chris Waller) 56kg 66/1
Trained by the genius that is Chris Waller, this lad had a cracking campaign last time around & finished 20th in this race last year carrying 53.5 when not staying. Has already returned to winning ways in The Chelmsford on a heavy track at Randwick last month. Not likely to run for me & a big stamina doubt once again if he does show up.
(Been disappointing upped in grade again since his win).
14th: Seismos (GB) 6yo G (Marco Botti) 56kg 40/1
Bounced back to his best in a funny running of The Geoffrey Free last time at Newbury, wouldn't be convinced he'd maintain his advantage over the 2nd that day (Willing Foe) who is also heading to Melbourne. Appears to have been given a decent racing weight by the Australian handicapper & could well turn out to be Marco Botti's best hope although German bred runners have an average record at present in the Cup (& in Australia) with only Lucas Cranach getting close with a 3rd in 2011.
(Video is of his Group 1 in Germany as a 5yo).
Extremely disappointing on Australian debut in Caulfield Cup showing very little in what turned out to be a below par renewal.
15th: Royal Diamond (Ire) 8yo G (J Murtagh) 55.5kg 50/1
Been a top older staying horse for the fledgling training career of former top jockey Johnny Murtagh as he rode / trained him to victory in last season's QIPCO LOng Distance Cup. Ran ok in 6th in last weekend's Irish St Leger & has a chance of his best form at the weights but I feel that he would have been better coming down here a year or 2 earlier.
16th: Junoob 7yo G (C Waller) 55.5kg 33/1
Just useful when trained in England a few years ago & form finally took off in Australia from February this year winning 4 races including a Group 3. Improved again this campaign with a good win in the Group 1 Metropolitan Handicap & didn't enjoy the greatest of runs next time in The Caulfield Cup where he was finishing off nicely, will need even more to win a Cup but he could easily find it given the im provement he has shown this season.
Out of this years race.
18th: Who Shot TheBarman 6yo G (Chris Waller) 55kg 25/1
Former New Zealand trained runner who won the Grade 1 Auckland Cup earlier in the year, had shown little in 3 starts in Australia prior to his surprise win back in a handicap at Flemington under big weight classy at his best. Followed up in the Group 3 Bart Cummings & was disappointing in The Caulfield Cup last weekend. Again probably found that 1m4f race to short in that company & could easily get involved back up to 2 miles in the big one.
19th: Zanbagh 4yo M (Patrick Payne) 52kg 200/1
Minor Group 3 winning mare who has been running in handicaps with little success so far this time around & flopped badly in The Geelong Cup but was subsequently found to be lame.
20th: Mutual Regard (Ire) 5yo G (J Murtagh) 55kg 12/1
This season's shock Ebor winner who has showed improved form this season for new trainer Johnny Murtagh, looks a handy type who could enjoy a Melbourne Cup & interesting to see where he goes if he does indeed get on the plane.
The 40/1 was indeed available for long & he has been steadily backed over the last few weeks, could easily run a monster race if the vibes are correct.
(Been impressing work watchers at Werribee in recent days & heads straight for the race).
21st: Gatewood (GB) 6yo H (J Gosden) 55kg 66/1
Well fancied for this race when last down in Australia in 2012 but failed to make the cut after just scraping home in a Geelong Cup back in 2012 & only managing a 6th in The Lexus. Remained in Australia with Chris Waller, safe to say he didn't enjoy the happiest of times during the end of 2012 & the first half of 2013, he was still a relatively inexperienced horse then which may not have helped & perhaps neither did the switching between trips.
Took his time to recapture his best after he returned to the UK but has bounced right back since the turn of the year winning 3 times in Listed & Group 3 company, arguably in better form than he was the last time he travelled to Australia so his current insulting odds look too good to turn down. Shapes as if the 2 miles will not be an issue & is due to travel on the 2nd shipment of UK runners.
22nd: Willing Foe (GB) 7yo G (Saeed Bin Suroor) 55kg 40/1
He still sits precariously close to the bottom of the order of entry but at this stage you would be hopeful that he will make the race.
Has been showing up well in his work since arriving down under & heads straight to the big race after an excellent effort in The Irish St Leger (see video below).
He is perfect for a Melbourne Cup & goes well fresh, I can see him being Godolphin's Number 1 hope come the day & since Kerrin has ended his association with Godolphin it has been confirmed that Top New Zealand rider James McDonald has been booked which for me is a superb booking. Everything remains in place for a big effort.
23rd: Precedence 9yo G (B & J Cummings) 54.5kg 200/1
Admirable old horse who has run in 3 Melbourne Cups over the years from 9th 2012, 11th 2011 & 8th 2010. Not up to it at this age.
Ran ok in 5th at Moonee Valley recently & goes back to the Victorian course again this Saturday.
Retired after a poor effort in Herbert Power.
24th: Black Tycoon 9yo G (Darren Weir) 250/1
Pretty consistent old horse in monitor Listed & Group company at the likes of Ascot in Western Australia but no designs on being up to the company he would have to face to get into a Melbourne Cup. Has been well beaten on all 3 starts so far, due to run again in Bendigo Cup.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
The following horses are underneath the cut off at present, please be aware this can still all change due to the balloting system & the qualification system:
25th: Brambles 6yo G (P Moody) 54kg 33/1
Improved animal on its last 2 starts winning a good quality Flemington handicap well under a big weight last time, had previously been a good 2nd to Stipulate in a Listed contest at the same course. Placed in the Turnbull since & another excellent effort when 4th in Caulfield Cup, could easily run a big race in the Cup if he makes the final field which looks highly likely.
26th: Mr O'Ceirin 7yo G (C Maher) 54kg 500/1
Been a good servant to connections but limitation exposed over the years.
27th: Opinion 5yo G (C Waller) 53.5kg 66/1
Former Royal Ascot winner last year & still owned by Highclere. Has been running well in Australia at trips short of his best as now he looks all about stamina, not one to completely rule out of popping up before a big one in a staying race. although did run badly on his last start. Has form with The Offer from the early part of the year when a good 2nd in The Sydney Cup.
Ran his best race of the season when given plenty to do from strong early fractions in Metropolitan last time, staying on all the way to the line in 2nd, has a good race in him, due to run in Saturday's Moonee Valley Cup & now has a real chance of making the final field for the big race in which I am starting to believe he would have a good chance of getting involved. Has a big race in him.
28th: Lidari 6yo H (P Moody) 53.5kg 66/1
Won Blamey Stakes last season but little else went right afterwards, doubtful he can make this grade. Like stablemate Brambles he has been coming along nicely this campaign, didn't enjoy the best of runs in last Saturday's Caulfield Stakes but still finished off well in 6th. Another who could easily go well at a price if he makes the field for the big one.
29th: Au Revoir 4yo C (Andre Fabre) 53.5kg 100/1
Shown reasonable form in France placing in minor Group company, was 4th of 5 to Ruler Of The World in Sunday's Prix Foy. Starts his Australian career this weekend in The Moonee Valley Cup.
(Video of his short head 2nd to Spiritjim at Listed level earlier in the year).
30th: Slow Pace 6yo G (K Lees) 53.5kg 300/1
Useful at his best in France beating Smoking Sun in La Coupe Group 3 back in 2013, things have not gone to plan in Australia & has been pretty disappointing so far. Maybe he needed a year to acclimatise but has yet to prove his worth down under, drops into handicap company this weekend.
31st: Araldo 7yo G (Michael Moroney) 53kg 25/1
Decent performer in Germany last season & did well in limited starts in Australia, winning the Bart Cummings on disqualification of Sea Moon. Only 3rd in the Lexus on his next start. Progressing nicely this time around with good runs in the Metropolitan & an unlucky effort in last weekend's Caulfield Cup, interesting outsider who is improving at the right time.
36th: La Amistad 5yo M (Team Hawkes) 51.5kg 100/1
La Amistad is relatively short in the betting for The Melbourne Cup considering where she sits in the list, its mainly due to having a welter burden to live up to as she is Makybe Diva's little sister. She has improved through the ranks from poor racing at Ballaret & Bendigo to win a Listed race at Randwick earlier in the year.
Unless she does something magnificent she won't be making this years race but is another to remember for next year. Well beaten by Junoob twice this campaign, she returns to Randwick this coming Saturday which could see her back in the winners circle.
38th: Van Percy 4yo G (Andrew Balding) 52.5kg 70/1
Won Summer Stakes at Goodwood over 1m6f & a followed that with a decent run in The Ebor, won't be making this year's race unless he pops up in a Lexus which is possible. Another who should pay his way down under. Ran a excellent race on his Australian debut in the Herbert Power recently.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The following horses have not passed the first ballot clause & will need a big win in the coming weeks to make the field;
53rd: Amralah 4yo C (Robert Hickmott) 54.5kg 66/1
Huge improvement on his last 2 UK starts for Mick Channon winning The Steventon Stakes & Rose of Lancaster, the latter of those in really good front running style.
Recently sold to join Lloyd Williams stable, a race like The Cox Plate could be right up his street. Stays 12f already so may well cope with the 2 miles of a Melbourne Cup but for me it could be a year to soon if he did make it.
53rd: Ethiopia 6yo G (Rebecca Nairn) 54.5kg 400/1
7th in last year's Melbourne Cup was a good effort from the same weight, had the been last the previous year. Work to do once more.
55th: Stipulate 5yo G (D Hayes & T Dabernig) 66/1
Formerly with the late Sir Henry Cecil in England, was useful at best in minor Group company from 8f - 10f. Has steadily improved in Australia & duly won handsomely in Listed company last time out over just shy of 9f's.
Reportedly targeting the Caulfield Cup & will certainly need to win that to get into a Melbourne Cup, untried in the UK at 12f he is bred to get it & on his last Australian run you certainly wouldn't be put off. Interesting to see how he goes as he is certainly classy enough. Whether he'd stay 2 miles in a Melbourne Cup is an entirely different matter.
(Due to run in Saturday's Underwood Stakes (should have a huge chance of gaining a Group 1 success > race was run at a crawl & did not suit finished a running on 7th))
(Showed he still has limitations in top grade when a one paced 5th in Turnbull 04/10/14 & again well beaten in Caulfield Cup).
56th: Contributor 4yo C (J O'Shea) 53.5kg 50/1
Career best effort when last seen to win at Royal Ascot, has since been sold to race in Australia, type to do well in the pattern races that are run in the build up to the big event. One for next year. Impressive on Australian debut in a Group 3 recently, is reportedly on target for the Mackinnon so could yet make the big one.
57th: Bonfire 5yo G (Gai Waterhouse) 53kg 100/1
Former Dante winner who became recalcitrant in his subsequent starts, Australian starts have been ok to be fair but was well held in Herbert Power.
58th: Masked Marvel 6yo H (Robert Hickmott) 52.5kg 250/1
Another who won't be making the Melbourne Cup, former St Leger winner who has been a disaster since coming down under including well beaten in The Cup last year, beaten on all starts this campaign including tailed off last twice.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
So thats the majority of the runners covered at the weights confirmation stage for The Emirates Melbourne Cup. Of course Ante Post betting comes with its perils but I have always been a fan so for me at this stage I am with;
Willing Foe 33/1 generally available
(Thanks to @AndrewJHawkins on Twitter who has set my mind at rest on whether WF would make the cut)
Gatewood 66/1 Skybet / BetVictor / Stan James 1/4 odds 4 places
(Always been a horse I have had a soft spot for, missed the cut when last down in 2012 & had an unhappy time thereafter when he joined Chris Waller.
He is a real galloper so to me it looked like he hated going up & down in trip.
Took time to return to his best back in Europe but is arguably in better form this time around & should not be the price he was when quoted early 200/1 (which I did manage to get some of), 66/1 is still a massive price).
@fttfracing
No comments:
Post a Comment