Doncaster St Leger Festival Day 4: Ladbrokes St Leger Saturday 13th September 2014

Hello & welcome to Day 4's blog from Doncaster's St Leger Festival, the final Classic of the season is upon us & I for one am excited with a strong field of unexposed 3yo's with the majority attempting the 1m6f trip for the first time.
 I will be spending my 2nd day on Town Moor on Saturday afternoon & am thoroughly looking forward to it.

Of course The St Leger this year goes head to head with the inaugural day of Irish Champions weekend from The Curragh although a clash has been skilfully avoided with the action from Leopardstown kicking off late into the afternoon for a Twilight fixture. 

So to the final Classic of the season, don't let the ratings fool you this is a tight field in which any number could find significant improvement to get involved. 

Alex My Boy has been an improver since stepping up to 1m6f winning at Haydock in July & again easily at Musselburgh a month later. He stepped up to Listed company over this distance last time at Goodwood when he almost completed the hat trick just failing to catch Forever Now (who re-opposes here), that bare form is short of what's required here so he will need to improve another 5 - 6lbs at least to get involved which after quite a long season may be asking too much.

Forever Now had the run of the race down at Goodwood making nearly all the running, he is quite a big horse so for me if the ground quickens anymore that would be a concern. Didn't have a lot left in the tank at Goodwood & to be honest was quite easily brushed aside by Hartnell & Windshear at Newmarket the time before.   

Its amazing to think that Hartnell is the same horse I saw run so badly in Epsom's Derby Trial back in April since then he has thrived with stepping up in distance chasing Snow Sky home at Lingfield before showing that stamina is his forte when virtually making all in The Queen's Vase & again in The Bahrain Trophy. His last run was however awful in comparison in what was a very strongly run Voltigeur last time, the drop back in trip in hindsight did not work although with the stamina he has he should have still been able to stay on at the end, perhaps he has had a long season & it was just an off day. 

I don't think he's ungenuine but he does have a tendency to hang left when the going gets tough as he did toward the finish at Ascot & again at York, its worth noting that on both those occasions the ground was very fast so as a son of Authorized its not ridiculous to say that he would prefer more juice in the ground. 

Granddukeoftuscany was a big springer in the market for this race before he ran in The Voltigeur last time but was most disappointing looking punch drunk towards the finish off the fast pace on quick ground. It is a huge ask to get anywhere near involved on only his 4th racecourse start. 

Snow Sky is a decent honest if unspectacular colt who just does enough, he had proved his stamina for 1m4f on his last 2 starts battling on to win The Gordon at Goodwood before being ridden from far to far back at York when trying to chase down the improving Postponed after making an eye catching amount of ground up to sit just off Postponed in the straight he flattened out quickly as the fuel gauge emptied. He should just about get the Leger trip but the one thing the Great Voltigeur told us is that he may not have enough left to fully get home over the 1m6f on a stiff Doncaster course.

Stablemate & fellow Khalid Abdullah trainee Kings Fete is also being allowed to take his chance which is another big indicator that there are doubts into Snow Sky's stamina, Kings Fete has plenty of potential but as yet has only tried Listed company at Goodwood when he did what he has done on his last 2 starts running free to post & taking a keen hold in the race, he did not get home that day & he won't get home on Saturday if he does the same. He looks in dire need of a set of blinkers or cheekpieces, overall stamina should not be an issue but he may find this coming too soon in his development. 

Kingston Hill is the uneasy favourite as the ground continues to quicken, it will be no real surprise if he is pulled out late on Saturday as a result. As a horse he is the highest rated in the field owing that rating down to a just over a length beating by Australia in The Derby under a astute tactical ride from his young rider Andrea Atzeni. He has been easily brushed aside in The Eclipse since & has been unable to run again due to the prevailing fast summer ground. I have huge doubts about his stamina as I still don't believe he stayed at Epsom (I don't believe Australia truly did either), I feel they were both so far clear of the other runners that there class pulled them clear so if he doesn't truly get 12f then why is he going to stay 14f on a stiff track with a long home straight like Doncaster?

He is 5lbs clear of Romsdal on ratings & 9lbs clear of the others, I firmly believe he has little left to improve on that rating whereas others who are more late developers do so if he does run below par or likely fail through lack of stamina then he is not as far ahead as you may think. Of course on the flip side his class may keep in contention for longer than his stamina does so its at that point that his rating will come into play.    

His dam Audacieuse was an 11f winner on soft ground in France, she always looked like she would get further but was never tried over it while his grandam was a 6f winner in the UK. His dam has produced only a couple of live foals that have made the racetrack Wolumlu only made the racetrack once & was by Royal Applause while Ramona Chase (by High Chaparral) won at 12f on the flat but has failed to stay further over hurdles. 
His father Mastercraftsman was a top class miler who has enjoyed a fine start to his stallion career courtesy of Kingston Hill himself & The Grey Gatsby but so far has only sired 1 winner between 12f - 13f (lowly rated Masterpaver) & no winners from 2 runners that have so far attempted 14f+. So far all of his progeny have looked one paced non stayers at trips of 12f or further & for me that does not bode well for Kingston Hill here, in my book he is a weak favourite who is worth taking on.

Romsdal made rapid strides in the early part of the season winning an AW maiden impressively from the Listed winning Big Orange, he then pushed Orchestra (who has since proved to be an ordinary performer) all the way at Chester, he then ran a huge race in The Derby finishing 3rd behind 2 horses with more speed. He was not seen again till running as well as his ability would allow him to in The King George last time, at Epsom he looked a stayer through & through so the step up should suit as his dam was placed at this trip in 2008 & his grandam was the brilliant Irish & Yorkshire Oaks winner in 1995 Pure Grain. His rating is perhaps a shade false for me & I wonder how much improvement he has left from a mark of 115.

 Stablemate & in the same ownership is Marzocco who also ran in that Epsom trial that Hartnell did back in April, he has been campaigned like a good horse running between 10 - 16f on various ground conditions, perhaps his best run was chasing down Hartnell at Royal 
Ascot in The Queens Vase which gives him assured stamina, rumours are that he is Romsdal pacemaker which is a shame but he may well last longer than most expect. 

Min Alemarat has a mountain to climb on official figures with just a maiden win on soft ground at Haydock to his name, he tried Listed company at Deauville & was readily outpointed. 

Odeon is the one horse in the field who is truly bred for a St Leger, his full brother Kite Wood was narrowly denied by his stablemate Mastery back in 2009. Odeon himself is a less tractable horse than his brother as so far this season he has thrown his chance away by pulling too hard & setting off too fast at York in the Dante where to be fair he still held on for 4th, at Royal Ascot where he faded in The King Edward after getting very worked up & the same story happened at Hamilton over shorter. 
Yet at York last time in The Great Voltigeur he was much better don't get me wrong he still did a bit too much but there were signs that he was finally learning, he set strong fractions & was still there as they turned for home & was still leading (on sufferance) just over 1f from home, despite tying up in the final few yards he still finished a creditable 3rd 8 lengths behind Snow Sky finishing ahead of Marzocco, Granddukeoftuscany & Hartnell in the process. 

8 lengths is of course quite a margin to make up but he will be finally tackling the distance he is bred for whereas horses like Snow Sky are far from guaranteed stayers, his brother was rated 115 at the time of his Leger 2nd & Odeon is already on 103 after pulling to hard for the majority of the season & having not tackled further than 12f. 
The other plus is this has been the aim all season whereas for the majority of this field it would have been an afterthought & he reminds in a way to another recent St Leger that of Bollin Eric who ran in The Dante, King Edward & The Great Voltigeur but come Doncaster in September he turned that all around running out a ready winner. 
I also feel he will get someone to lead him this time which will hopefully help him settle with the likes of Hartnell, Marzocco & Forever Now in the lineup.
I'm sure a few of you will believe I have gone slightly insane but in a race that is much more open than you would think there is plenty of juice in his current price of 50/1.

Scotland is another horse who has been crying out for this trip & further, he has looked slow at 12f in good company after Ascot I had him mind for a St Leger as he stayed on strongly that day but he really didn't improve at Goodwood & does not warrant being as short as 20/1. He looks like 2 miles next season or over hurdles is what he needs. 

Somewhat has had a most strange of seasons, he looked a real 2yo who would make up into a quality 3yo but that has just not happened. He shocked everyone with a huge effort in The Eclipse when 3rd after acting as a pacemaker for True Story yet has since been quite comprehensively turned over in The Gordon & Geoffrey Freer since. His stamina looks his other stumbling block on Saturday so he cannot be considered.

Windshear has been one of the most consistent animals all season finishing 2nd on his last 4 starts in handicap & pattern company. He is big horse with stamina to burn as he shapes as if another 2f will be no problem, his half sister Porcini stays this trip well while his dam was placed up to 12f & his grandam was a winner at a mile but no further. He has been beaten by Hartnell over 1m5f quite comfortably, also comfortably outpointed by both Cannock Chase (over 10f) & Elite Army (over 12f) on none of those occasions did it look like an extra 1f or 2f would have helped him to actually claim a win. At Goodwood last time he met some trouble in running but still couldn't quite get past Snow Sky who in fact was resurgent when Windshear got to him. It just looks as though to me he is not quite good enough to beat the others when it comes down the nitty gritty in a finish & he looks incredibly short on what he has achieved so far.

Odeon at 50/1 E/W Bet365 / Skybet / Betfred / BetVictor / Paddy Power / Coral / William Hill is a huge price for all the reason's I have given above & he will do for me in an open race.

The Saturday card from Doncaster opens up with a cracking looking edition of The Champagne Stakes over the 7f;

Estidkhaar is the likely favourite after winning well in The Superlative last time beating recent Group 3 winner Aktabantay comfortably. He has a 3lb penalty to carry here which is enough to make him beatable in my eyes. 

Aces is once maiden winner who did it nicely at Windsor on debut in the middle of August, he had Group 1 entries at 6f & 7f respectively. Needs to improve again from that win but an interesting contender nonetheless. 

Belardo appreciated the step up when an easy winner of Newbury's Washington Singer last time, he looked every inch a Group performer as he had showed when coming from well back to finish a good 4th to Ivawood at Newmarket the time before. Softer ground may in the end prove his optimum surface but as he showed on debut he can cope with a firmer turf although this is a better class of race than his maiden. 

Glenalmond a full brother to Group 1 winner Iffraaj ran encouragingly stepped up to pattern company over 6f in The Gimcrack last time after getting outpaced early he ran at the death to claim a good 4th behind some useful types, on a line through Muharrar & Jungle Cat he has little to find with Belardo on what is his first attempt at 7f. 

Room Key ran a hugely promising race upped to pattern company for the first time behind runaway winner Highland Reel when he didn't get the clearest of runs & probably should have been 2nd. On a form line through Ahlan Emirati he should be right in amongst Glenalmond & Belardo. He is a big horse with plenty more development to come & the 45 day break since Goodwood has reportedly seen him strengthen up, not to be underestimated from his small stable that are still going great guns. 

War Envoy has been a big disappointment since his maiden win looking short of Group class on the last 4 occasions, even after a break last time he still looked awkward & babyish. Stepping up to 7f looks a good idea as he has just not been quick enough over 6f recently, it does appear as though he will be a better 3yo but a big run would not truly surprise in what is a hot race.

I like 3 horses as individuals in this but have been waiting for Room Key 20/1 E/W BETVICTOR to run since Goodwood & he will do for me here.

  

High drawn horses have done well in recent renewals of The Portland with 4yo & 5yo winning 8 of the last 10 renewals.

Smoothtalkinrascal has inherited top weight & has in all to do as a result. 

Goldream has had a great season with 2 wins already but now has a career high mark to overcome. Addictive Dream is decent & consistent but appears to have lost his way at present. Stewards Cup winner Intrinsic reverts to handicap company after not proving to be the second coming when getting well beaten in Listed company at Newmarket last time, he is now 6lbs higher than when winning at Goodwood & that will be more than enough to scupper him over 5f for the first time. 
Go Far has hit a purple patch recently rattling up a quick fire hat trick with a comfortable win on Wolverhampton's new Tapeta surface last Saturday night, another raise to contend with here but he was not stopping last week. 
Seeking Magic wasn't beaten all that far after doing a solo in The Stewards Cup last time which was far from ideal, low draw makes things tough again here but very capable of getting involved. York Glory has been out of form so far this season & can only be watched at present. Muthmir wasn't beaten far from a poor draw at Goodwood last time, that experience will have done the horse the power of good of learning how to handle these big field races, drop in trip is no bother & has good high draw to attack from, should take all the beating. 

Out Do finally won the big one it looked like was on its way at Ripon last time, tries an extended 5f for the first time & needs respecting after getting his head in front last time from a race has produced 3 winners of this race in the last 10 years. 
Compton Park has hit form in the middle part of the season after returning with his trainer from a long spell in Spain earlier in the year, his last win was impressive of a mark of 90, now up to a mark of 97 he will need more again but given his current mood he is difficult to rule out although his low draw is not brilliant. 

Clear Spring has struggled from this mark all season & a similar awaits here. Algar Lad is on a hat trick after wins at Musselburgh & Ascot last weekend from a mark of 90, 7lbs higher here is not impossible given his rate of improvement. 

Magical Macey would prefer softer ground but as a result of some poor runs is now 2lbs below his last winning mark & could easily lead them a merry dance for a long way. Chilworth Icon popped up as he does last time but it would be folly to think he can do the double in such a competitive race as this. 

No 3yo has won since Compton Banker 14 years ago, 3 youngsters bid to break that hoodoo here; High On Life takes on his elders for the first time after climbing the ratings earlier in the year, decent enough but work to do from this mark. 

See The Sun is the best of the 3yo's & has already ran with credit against his elders this season, has the potential to get involved from a good draw. Bogart is due to run on Friday, if he does not take up that engagement he can be given a chance from a very workable mark. Humidor actually won last time dropped into a much lesser grade but unfortunately for him the race was voided, hopefully that race will have done him the power of good & from this mark with no weight on his back he enters calculations. Love Island has plenty on her plate at present & is best watched. Pearl Acclaim has the potential to go extremely close if his last run when last at Chester after a break has brought him on, his form earlier in the season makes his current mark look appealing. Draw is not great but he will be the one of the likely pace angles drawn low so he could drag himself & others into contention.  

Now Boomerang Bob is a N/R I will be backing Muthmir 9/2, it's unoriginal but he looks a real progressive horse, a outsider who may be interesting at a price is Humidor 20/1 E/W who is extremely well weighted especially after a win in a voided race at Epsom recently.

  

The race before the St Leger is the OLBG Park stakes, I have kindly been invited into the OLBG private box so it would be rude not partake in some afternoon tea to enjoy some excellent views of Town Moor. The usual 7f suspects come back into the fray with 3yo & 4yo's have dominated in recent years winning 6 of the last 10.

Es Que Love steps back up to 7f after never getting involved in last Saturday's Sprint Cup, he won the Betfair comprehensively but that has since proved in & out form with Toormore getting beat again in Turkey on Sunday & Anjaal getting beaten at Salisbury however Garwsood has won a Group 1 & Glory Awaits a Group 2. Penalty makes things harder here. Aljamaheer reverts back to 7f after failing to cut it at 6f this season, so thats now 6f & a mile that he falls below top class. 7f however has always looked perfect for him & if he remains into the game he must take all the beating.

Ansgar won The Supreme Stakes quite well at Goodwood last time showing that he remains useful around Listed & Group 3 company, this is another step up & he has yet to prove up to it. Gregorian like Aljamaheer is caught between two stalls not top class at a mile or 6f yet pretty good at 7f, he was a well beaten 3rd in this last year with more in his favour especially with ground drying out this time around. 

Penitent is struggling at present & has work to do here. 

Professor is just below what's required for these kind of Group races & has plenty to do. Cable Bay never threatened on his belated seasonal return at York, he wasn't helped by being carried wide on the bend though so if that race has brought him on as you would expect he has a chance, useful at 2 & not far behind the best of these receiving weight. That Is The Spirit was again disappointing at York against his elders last time, he will be better with another year on his back & looks set to struggle again here.

Not a race I will be betting in.

Leopardstown on Saturday late afternoon to the early evening stages the inaugural day of Irish Champions Weekend featuring 2 Group 1's & 3 other Group races.

The first race I will look at is The John Deere Juvenile Turf a win & you're in race for The Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf later in the season, last year it was won by Australia. 

Aidan O'Brien has won the last 4 renewals & this year saddles current Derby favourite John F Kennedy a full brother to recent surprise Yorkshire Oaks winner Tapestry, he was turned over on debut but duly made amends next time.

Stablmate East India was a surprise winner on debut & was well beaten when upped to Listed company next time, the winner that day has since been well beaten by another Ballydoyle inmate Gleneagles. 

Tombelaine was beaten in a tactical 3 runner Group 3 by Gleneagles when last seen, he had made a taking winning debut previously defeating subsequent Group 2 winner Highland Reel so he is respected back in a more less tactically affected race. 

Vocalizer has an official rating of 85 after winning a average Roscommon maiden so has plenty on his plate as does the maiden Approbare. 

Bertie Le Belge is ubeaten in 2 starts so far, he has a rating only 4lbs below John F Kennedy but his form overall looks weak although you cannot completely dismiss him as he may just be much better than what he has raced against so far.

There is one UK raider, Brian Meehan's Fanciful Creek who was 2nd in a minor Listed race at Deauville last time, on his form with Highland Reel the time before at Goodwood he has plenty to find here.

A watching brief race for me.

3yo's & Aidan O'Brien have dominated the 10f Group 3 later on the card; recent Group 3 scorer Hall Of Mirrors & Great Voltigeur also ran Indian Maharaja represent the master trainer here. 

Hall Of Mirrors has been mainly a pacemaker throughout his career but somehow managed to win a Group 3 last time, the penalty for that win makes things harder here. 

Indian Maharaja showed little to nothing at York in Group 2 company last time but will appreciate the return to 10f here so you couldn't rule out. 

Brendan Brackan is consistent at around this level, stamina should be ok & he has a chance. 

Chance To Dance is a decent handicapper who is trying Group company once again after not being good enough at 12f in a similar race last time. 

Elleval would love this to be on Tapeta as he really struggles on Turf, visored for the first time. 

Qewy ran an eyecatcher last time after a short break, the step back will be perfect & he should be involved.

Rock Critic is in for pacemaking duties for the returning Free Eagle who was favourite for the Derby after a fluent maiden success but he was well put in his place on this day last year buy Australia & has not been sighted since, impossible to know what to expect but should be at least up to this class. 

Prince Of All has not been seen since a last place finish behind Kingman at The Royal Meeting, previously he had won 2 races at Dundalk, stamina far from guaranteed & best watched. 

Maid Of Glens is an ok type of filly but really should not be up to this.

Another race to watch rather than have a bet.

The first of the Group 1's is for fillies & mares, The Matron Stakes over the mile;

Fiesolana was 5th last year but almost seems a better filly this time around, she ran a huge race in The Maurice De Gheest last time & is more than capable of taking this. Kenhope was 4th last year & overall has yet to prove up to this grade, she has gained 2 confidence boosting wins in minor company on her last 2 starts in France & Germany.

Purr Along has reverted to her old self since her surprise win on soft ground at the start of the season & was easily beaten in Group 3 company last time. 

Tobann steps up to the top grade for the first time & has plenty to do to get involved. Wannabe Better was well fancied when finishing last in this last season & is not good enough. 

Flying Jib produced a tremendous performance earlier in the year when winning a well contested Group 3 but has since been hugely disappointing in the US & when almost tailed off back in Ireland last time. 

Palace started the season well but her form has tailed off & I would imagine she is in to make the pace for the surprising runner Tapestry who drops back to the mile having showed she stayed 12f last time out when defeating Taghrooda, I cannot personally see the logic in it & no doubt she will be over bet here as a result of her Group 1 win last time. Having been trained for runs in 2 Oaks on her last 2 starts I wonder if she will be able to cope with the immediate drop back in trip here. 

Rizeena ran a decent race behind Kingman last time & will hopefully get a better pace to attack here, she had Tapestry behind at 2 (albeit Tapestry was unlucky) & I have no doubt in my mind that she can confirm that form so she has a good chance of gaining a 3rd Group 1 win. 

Wee Jean is on the hunt for some serious black type after 2 poor runs in Listed & Group 3 company, its not unfeasible that she could get an easy time on the lead if Palace does not go on & she could well outrun her odds. 

Hope Rizeena will win but can see Fiesolana going close but again it's not a race I will be betting in.

  

Gordon Lord Byron is due to make a quick reappearance in the Group 2 over a mile on Saturday night, ground is not perfect for him & he has plenty on under a penalty. 

Darwin received a great ride when finishing a close 3rd in the Sussex last time, he barely gets the mile & that is a worry here.

 Leitir Mor is in to make the pace for his stablemate the useful Parish Hall who drops to a trip below 10f for the first time since he won the Dewhurst as a 2yo, capable in this grade but will he have the speed here. 

Top Notch Tonto came right back to his best with a cracking effort in a handicap last time although the winner has let the form down since & once more the fast ground is against him. 

Bow Creek benefited from a superb ride from the front by Joe Fanning when stealing the Group 2 Celebration Mile last time, he is on the upgrade & has a good chance of following up here. 

Michaelmas won a small 4 runner race last time & is not up to this grade on all known previous form. 

Mustajeeb ran out a tidy winner of The Jersey at The Royal Meeting & has not been seen since, he looked a decent horse that day & must go well on his return here. 

Another non betting event on a tricky card.

The big race of the weekend in Ireland is The Irish Champion Stakes a race in which many will be hoping see the coronation of Australia as he has what could well be his final racecourse start & his first in Ireland since he won at this meeting last year.

Everything has gone to plan for this horse since his 3rd in The 2000 Guineas at the start of the year & again last time in The International his main older rival Mukhadram put in a rare below par effort leaving The Grey Gatsby to chase him home at a respectful distance. 

With Kingfisher in the lineup once more Ballydoyle are leaving nothing to chance. 

The Grey Gatsby once again confounded people with an excellent 2nd behind Australia last time on his return from a bad run on bad ground in France, he is clearly a very talented horse but can he turn that form around?

Mukahdram is clearly over whatever was ailing him at York last time, I will say the same about him now as I did that day an on-form Mukhadram will give Australia a race & lets hope he is tomorrow.

 I would assume the only reason that Alkasser is in the field is perhaps to make the pace as his last run was a well beaten effort in a 6f handicap at The Curragh previous to that he had won a 7f Listed race in the style of a nice horse. He is not bred to get much further than a mile so I hope these tactics don't backfire for Mukhadram as they did in The Prince Of Wales when Elkaayed went off far too fast & Muk resented being held up.

Trading Leather is a forgotten horse this year as he was in The Eclipse when he ran so well, he clearly was not right in The King George & on his very best has more than a squeak, could go well at big odds. 

Al Kazeem is quickly returned to the top grade after winning a poor Group 3 at Windsor last time, he was 2nd last year after a 3rd at York the time before, this time around due to his attempted Stud career he has had less runs into this race so at least arrives fresh but I do feel its asking a lot for him to still up to top Group 1 class.   

Will always back Mukhadram so there's no surprise there 11/1 is big after one poor effort but I would not be advising anyone else to back him, I would just never forgive myself if I didn't back him & he owes me no favours after his Eclipse win.  

@fttfracing