With the Royal Meeting around the corner my thoughts have turned to the next week's betting activities with the entries for all the Major Group races & the two big handicaps widely available. Now is the time to bring together the portfolio in the hope that a price can be nicked here or there.
Here is a look at the meetings opening Two Days including a glance at some of the major players entered plus some of the vital stats:
The Queen Anne Stakes Group 1:
At this stage it only has the 18 entered & will most likely cut up to just the 7 or 10 runners.
Aidan O'Brien has won 3 in the last 10 years.
Richard Hannon has won 2 in the last 10 years.
4yo's have won 8 of the last 10 runnings with the other 2 runnings having gone the way of 5yo's.
7 x Winners came from The Lockinge (2 x Winners / 5 x Unplaced)
(2014: Olympic Glory 1st / Tullius 2nd / Verrazano 3rd)
2 x Winners came from Prix D'Ispahan
1 x Winner came from Gladness
Each winner in the last 10 years has had a run, the last horse to win on its seasonal debut was Godolphin's Allied Forces in 1997.
The last filly to win was Goldikova in 2010 in fact she is the only filly to have won since 1980.
Richard Hannon Jnr holds a strong hand with entries for Olympic Glory / Toronado & Sky Lantern.
I would imagine only one will run, Olympic Glory is in my eyes overrated & a soft ground animal who has to put an poor run in The Ispahan behind, with the current weather outlook I would be surprised if he ran.
Toronado has been MIA for a long time now & it would be his seasonal debut which is asking a lot, he has yet to really prove that his Sussex Stakes win was as good as it was rated.
The filly Sky Lantern has also yet to be seen this season & you would think they would like to have got a run into her before taking on the boys for the first time.
The trainer with the best recent record is Aidan O'Brien who also has 3 entered; Alfonso De Sousa who is outclassed, Magician more likely for Prince Of Wales & former American Verrazano who ran a promising race in The Lockinge on his first European racecourse experience. A big horse who will have come on for that he looks an excellent bet at 7/2 as he is a definite runner.
The only other 2 horses entered who are worth mentioning are the improving Tullius who could easily gain another Group 1 placing if the as I expect the race cuts up.
Soft Falling Rain has not been seen since finishing an excellent 2nd in defence of his Godolphin Mile crown to his fellow countryman the classy Variety Club who has bolted up in Hong Kong since. He was out the other day working at Newmarket & looked in good health, given fast ground he will be a player who will be much shorter than his current odds on the day.
Kings Stand Stakes Group 1 5f
A race that in the late 90's became a very poor event with minor pattern performers taking advantage of the lack of quality horses taking part.
Then in 2003 an Australian horse called Choisir made the journey over & the face of this race & the Royal Meeting was changed forever.
Since his win that year our antipodean cousins have won 4 renewals in 12 years.
4 x 6yo's have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 7yo's have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 5yo's have won in the last 10 years.
1 x 4yo has won in the last 10 years.
1 x 3yo has won in the last 10 years.
4 x winners trained in Australia.
2 x winners trained in UK.
1 x winner trained in France.
1 x winner trained in Spain.
1 x winner trained in Hong Kong.
Unfortunately this year the race has lost much of its international glitz as top Australian sprinter Zoustar who made the trip over to these shores was injured in routine work 2 months ago & has since been retired.
This year's international challenge is just 2 horses Ancil from the United States & Francois Rohaut's Signs Of Blessings.
Last year's 1-2 Sole Power & Shea Shea head the betting, they are both intended runners once more. Both are decent prices who will be much shorter on the day, Sole Power has already shown himself to have returned in good form with an excellent display at Newmarket.
Shea Shea does deserve a big one on these shores & worked well last week, he does come into the race on the back of a disappointing run in Dubai (a race he won easily last year) so perhaps age is catching up with him after all his travelling.
Hot Streak is the hip new young thing on the block, top 3yo sprinters have won this in the past Equiano 2008, Pivotal 1996, Dajyur 1990, Bluebird 1987, Last Tycoon 1986 & Marwell in 1981 so if he is that good then the 11/2 on offer with Ladbrokes is tempting.
Desert Law at massive odds is an interesting entry from Godolphin who have never won this race, he has looked if a win was on its way on his runs in Dubai, you can forget his last run as the ground had gone, at big odds 66/1 with Coral he would be intriguing on genuine fast ground next week.
But the one who I feel is overpriced at present is Moviesta who ran an excellent first race of the season in behind Sole Power & Hot Streak, 5f for me is his best trip on genuine fast ground so again forget his last run at York as the ground had gone over 6f.
His trainer Bryan Smart is an excellent trainer of sprinters & as a 4yo he has lots of improvement to come at the discipline, he was brilliant in last year's King George Stakes so the 25/1 with Ladbrokes looks well worth taking as I can see him being much shorter on the day.
St James's Palace Stakes Group 1
5 x winners ran in both English & Irish Guineas
(2014: Kingman)
(2014: Kingman)
4 x Irish Guineas winners have gone on to win SJP
(2014: Kingman)
(2014: Kingman)
1 x winner won both French 2000 Guineas & French Derby
1 x winner came direct from French Guineas
1 x winner came direct from 2000 Guineas
1 x winner came direct from 2000 Guineas
1 x winner came direct from French Derby
1 x winner came direct from Derby
Aidan O'Brien is the leading trainer with 6 wins since the turn of the century.
24 entries at present but on the day it looks likely that this could cut up to no more than 8 runners.
Kingman is the obvious starting point as he is expected to turn around the Guineas form with Night Of Thunder & is a short price to do just that, you wouldn't be getting involved at this stage as the bookies could easily try to get him on the day.
It also may end up being a tougher race than his Irish Guineas last time if the following horses turn up:
Night Of Thunder has remained in his box since his shock Guineas win, if he'd have stayed straight that day he would have won easily so there's every reason to think he has improved since as well. I can't see much juice in his price at present so he would be another to leave until nearer the time.
Stablemate Toormore is also looking a likely runner, he was disappointing at Newmarket but if he can be forgiven that the form of his Craven win took a real boost with The Grey Gatsby winning the Dante & French Derby. If you fancy him take the 10/1 that's available as he will be shorter next week.
War Command will be Aidan O'Brien's sole representative, he ran no race at Newmarket but returns to Ascot a fresh horse on a course over which he produced his lifetime best performance when winning the Coventry last season, Ascot since the redevelopment has turned into a specialists track so the general 10/1 on offer will not last until next week.
French 2000 Guineas winner Karakontie is worth a mention as you would think he will run, he was drawn in the car park at Chantilly last time & was not knocked about when his chance was gone. He is a proper horse who has been forgotten about after a run that can be forgiven with odds of 14/1 on offer with SkyBet.
I must mention Outstrip who ran appallingly in The Guineas but it was when Charlie Appleby's horses were out of form, he loves fast ground & is another who may take his chance next week.
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The Coventry Stakes Group 2 6f
Once again Aidan O'Brien is the trainer to watch with 7 winners since 1997.
Richard Hannon has had 2 winners in the last 10 years
At least one run preferably two runs.
Unbeaten horses have a great record.
No one race holds sway but the Marble Hill, Rochestown & the maiden on the Friday of Newbury's Lockinge meeting are races to focus in on.
This year the winner's of those races are:
Cappella Sansevero 20/1 Stan James
Kool Kompany 10/1 Betvictor / Paddy Power
Adaay 13/2 Betvictor
Ascot Stakes Handicap 2m4f
A race in the last 4 years has been dominated by NH trainers with wins from D.Pipe, N.Henderson, W.Mullins & J.O'Neill.
In fact NH trainers are responsible for 9 winners since 2001.
7 of the last 10 winners had won on their previous start.
4 x 5yo's have won in the last 10 years
4 x 4yo's have won in the last 10 years
1 x 7yo has won in the last 10 years
1 x 8yo has won in the last 10 years
Weight: Carrying between 9-0 - 9-10
2 x Top Weights have won in the last 10 years (2 years running 2013 / 2012)
Rated between: 85 - 88
Last 2 winners have been rated 95
Windsor Castle Stakes Listed 5f
Usually attracts a big field
All bar one of the winners in the last 10 years had at least 1 win to their name.
All of the winners had more than 2 starts previous to their success.
Northern Trainers have won 5 renewals in the last 10 years.
1 x winner from the USA (Strike A Tiger 2009)
Day Two
The Jersey Stakes Group 3 7f
A mixed bag of a race for horses who are not up to Classic class & not fast enough for sprinting.
The Ballydoyle maestro has won the last 2 renewals with distinctly average horses.
Usually won by an unexposed horse who has missed the major mile spring classics.
2 x Winners have come from the King Charles Stakes Listed
(2014: Coulsty / Toofi / Windfast / Parbold / Aeolus who has since won comfortably at Haydock)
The Duke of Cambridge Stakes Group 2 1m
Now in its 10th year part of the upgraded pattern for older fillies & mares
4yo's have won 8 out of the last 10
The other have been shared between a 5yo & 6yo.
Sir Michael Stoute, James Fanshawe & John Gosden have won 2 apiece.
Ireland have had 2 winners but surprisingly not form Ballydoyle
(Lolly For Dolly 2011 T.Stack & Duntle 2013 D.Wachman)
4 x winners have come from Princess Elizabeth Stakes (all 4 were placed)
(2014: Thistle Bird 1st / Odeliz 2nd / Just The Judge 3rd)
1 x winner has come from Amethyst Stakes
(2014: Pearl Of Africa 5th)
(2014: Pearl Of Africa 5th)
1 x winner has come from Equestrian Stakes
(2014: Purr Along 1st / Fiesolana 2nd / Princess Loulou 3rd / 5th Pearl Of Africa / Peace Burg 10th & Wannabe Better 12th)
1 x winner came from Dahlia Stakes
(2014: Integral 2nd / Gifted Girl 3rd)
1 x winner came from Chartwell Fillies Stakes
(2014: Annecdote 3rd)
1 x winner came from Lockinge Stakes
1 x winner came from Sun Chariot Stakes
1 x winner won this race on her seasonal debut
(Favourable Terms in the inaugural running in 2004)
Integral from the Sir Michael Stoute stable should take a lot of beating in this.
Integral from the Sir Michael Stoute stable should take a lot of beating in this.
The Prince Of Wales Stakes Group 1 1m2f
One of the features of the whole week, it has seen some memorable performances & winners over the years.
Brigadier Gerard 1972, Mtoto's back to back success in 1987 / 88, Mutharram doubling up in 1994 / 95, the super filly Bosra Sham's demolition in 1997, the superb effortless Dubai Millennium in 2000, Fantastic Light 2001, Nayef 2003, Rakti 2004, wonder mare Ouija Board in 2006, Manduro 2007 right up to So You Think in 2012 & Al Kazeem just collaring Mukhadram last year.
5 x 4yo's have won in the last 10 years.
4 x 5yo's have won in last 10 years
1 x 6yo has won in the last 10 years.
3 x winners of Tattersall's Gold Cup have won in the last 10 years & 1 placed horse has won.
(2014: Magician 2nd)
1 x Sheema Classic winner has won in the last 10 years.
1 x Prix D'Ispahan winner has won in the last 10 years plus one placed horse has won.
1 x Prix Ganay winner has won in the last 10 years.
(2014: Treve 2nd)
1 x winner was placed in Coronation Cup.
1 x Hong Kong Cup winner has won in the last 10 years
(also the only horse to win this race on his seasonal debut Rakti 2004)
This is one of Treve's 4 races this season on the road to defending the Arc title in October, she lost her unbeaten record last time when going down fighting to the old warrior Cirrus Des Aigles. She lost nothing in defeat that day although it was notable how worried connections were about the potential for her to get beat before had.
Whether fast ground at Ascot is what she truly wants I have my doubts so at current prices I would be looking elsewhere.
With only 17 entries at this stage it is another race that could easily end up with less than 10 runners so it could be tactical.
One thing we know with Mukhadram is he will go for it in his usual bold front running style as he did to great effect on his first try of the Tapeta surface in Dubai when finishing an fantastic 2nd in The World Cup, add that to his swashbuckling performance in this race last year coupled with an unlucky run in The Eclipse & you have a genuine 1m2f Group 1 horse on proper fast flat racing ground.
With the likelihood that the race will cut up he will be much shorter next Wednesday so the 11/1 with Betway & 10/1 with a few other firms looks well worth taking.
The Fugue is building up to her return after a rare disappointing run in Dubai, its asking a lot for this top class filly to keep travelling around the world & keep coming back. I would want to see some stable confidence so she would be one to wait until next week before you could decide to back her.
Only one will run out of the Ballydoyle duo Magician & Ruler Of The World; with Magician being the likeliest runner, the fast ground that looks like being expected will be to his liking & he will trade shorter than the current 8 & 7's that is available. Take the price now if you fancy him.
One horse who is markedly over priced is Trading Leather, one would imagine that this is his first major target after running so well in top class 1m2f Group 1's last year.
You can forget his first run as he pulled far too hard due to being held up much more than he is used too. He does not need to make the running & it would be a fruitless exercise if they were to take Mukhadram on for the lead anyway.
Would be an interesting runner if allowed to take his chance & 16/1 is a very fair price.
At this stage certainly enough to be taking on Treve with especially on as yet unproven fast ground.
The Royal Hunt Cup Handicap 1m
The first cavalry charge of the Royal Meeting.
5 x 4yo's have won in the last 10 years.
3 x 5yo's have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 6yo's have won in the last 10 years.
Weight: 8-8 - 9-5.
Rating: 94 - 102.
Classier horses have dominated in the last 10 years.
Running into form either with a win or good placed effort is a big plus.
Good run in Sandown's Whitsun Cup is a good indication as that race has produced 2 winners in the last 10 years;
(2014: Ishikawa 1st / Dream Walker 2nd / Jodies Jem 4th / Tinghir 5th, looking at the current weights only Tinghir would have any chance of getting in the Hunt Cup)
Do not be afraid to chance a horse who ran appalling last time as they have been known to bounce back up the Ascot straight.
Course form in these big field handicaps is a real asset.
The entries are outstanding at this stage with well backed current favourite Abseil looking likely to struggle to get in as he sits 75th at present even allowing for any rise in the weights after his latest win if those above end up taking their chances.
Bearing that in mind anyone taking the 5/1 & 6/1 about him is in need of admittance to an asylum, I was one of the lucky ones who took the 25's that was previously on offer but I still wouldn't be confident he would make the cut, if he does I would be extremely hopeful as he is on the upgrade & has tonnes in hand from his mark.
Ones to note towards the top of the weights the improved Short Squeeze is one who could shorten in the build up as is a winner on AW Finals day Captain Cat who has Ascot course form in the book & was an impressive winner last time.
Another rapidly improving 4yo to note is Lawman's Thunder 25/1 with Betvictor & William Hill who has won 3 on the spin at Kempton by a total of nearly 10.5 lengths, he has to show that improvement back on turf but as Ascot really suits AW horses since the redevelopment he is extremely interesting off 8-9 & a mark of 95.
Queen Mary Stakes Group 2 5f
Couple of runs at least has been essential in recent seasons.
3 x winners from Marygate Stakes at York
(2 x winners & one placed horse)
(2014: Patience Alexander 1st / Tiggy Wiggy 2nd)
1 x Winner from USA.
A filly to note who won in good style on her debut in the same race Rizeena won last year before taking the Queen Mary is Richard Hannon Jnr's Dangerous Moonlite 10/1 Racebets.com, the race has already produced 2 winners so far.
Sandringham Handicap Listed 1m
Usually won by a filly of note that can go on to win in a higher grade.
4 winners had won on their previous start.
Only 2 of the last 10 winners had finished outside the first 4 on their last start.
Weight: 8-7 - 8-12
(Only 2 have won carrying over 9 stone in the last 10 years)
Race suits unexposed fillies who have been brought along steadily.
Crowley's Law would be a strong fancy if she was rerouted here after her latest easy success.
Day Three
Norfolk Stakes Group 2 5f
A race that tends to go to mid tier trainer.
Perhaps surprisingly Richard Hannon has not won the race in the last 10 years.
Aidan O'Brien has only won one renewal of this race with Johannesburg back in 2001.
American superstar No Nay Never won for trainer Wesley Ward in 2013.
7 out of the last 10 winners were unbeaten going into the race whether it be one start or two starts beforehand.
Hamilton maiden run in mid May has produced 2 winners (Bapak Chinta & Masta Plasta)
(2014: Billyoakes 1st / Denzille Lane 2nd / Rita's Boy 3rd)
Peter Chapple-Hyam has won 2 renewals in the last 10 years.
Ribblesdale Stakes Group 2 1m4f
No secret that this race does not suit fillies who ran well at Epsom.
2 fillies in the last 10 years have won a Ribblesdale after a good run at Epsom
(Michita 2008 & Punctilious in 2004)
Saeed Bin Suroor has trained 3 winners in the last 10 years.
Unexposed fillies can improve dramatically to take this.
2 x winners have previously won The Blue Wind Stakes at Naas.
(2014: Tarfasha 1st / We'll Go Walking 2nd / Dazzling 3rd)
2 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland but not from Ballydoyle.
Surprisingly Aidan O'Brien has never won The Ribblesdale
(He has had 9 runners in the last 10 years with 2 x 2nd places)
Ascot Gold Cup Group 1 2m4f
Multiple winners are a common occurrence throughout the History of this race
(10 horses have won at least 2 Gold Cup's since 1965 including the History making Yeats who won for 4 straight years from 2006 - 2009)
Aidan O'Brien has trained 5 winners in the last 10 years.
Saeed Bin Suroor has trained 2 winners in the last 10 years.
(5 winners since 1996)
Mark Johnston has not trained the winner since Royal Rebel's 2nd win in 2002, he has trained 3 winners in total.
3 x 4yo's have won in the last 10 years.
3 x 6yo's have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 5yo's have won in the last 10 years.
2 x winners won the Sagaro Stakes on their previous start.
(2014: Tac De Boistron 1st / Oriental Fox 3rd / Missunited 4th)
2 x winners won the race on their seasonal debuts.
2 x winners won Saval Beg Stakes on their previous start.
(2014: Missunited 1st)
1 x winner won Henry II Stakes on their previous start.
(2014: Brown Panther 1st / High Jinx 2nd / Whiplash Willie 3rd / Tiger Cliff 5th / Oriental Fox 7th)
1 x winner won Prix Vicomtesse Vigier on their previous start.
(2014: Terrubi 3rd)
1 x winner won Vintage Crop Stakes on their previous start.
(2014: Leading Light 1st)
Leading Light is incredibly short on reputation & form, he won the Vintage Crop Stakes on his seasonal debut comfortably this season after wins at 3 in The St Leger & at this meeting last year in The Queen's Vase so we know he stays 2 miles.
He has already outstayed his pedigree as his dam won The Queen Mary back in 1996, she got no further than 7f. He promises to stay the extra 4 furlongs on his running style but I wouldn't be overly surprised if he didn't quite last so at short odds I will be taking him on.
I can see him getting bigger so if you were backing him I wouldn't rush to do it until the day.
Brown Panther is a solid 2nd favourite who has been in fine form this season winning comfortably at Sandown latest although his best form is on soft ground he has won a Goodwood Cup on good ground. Genuine fast ground would be a slight concern. He is about the right price at present.
Tac De Boistron for me would be a surprising runner on anything other than good to soft as his trainer stated back in May that he would not be risked on any faster going (The York ground last time was still on the easy side).
Estimate is still on course at present & the current 15/2 available is generous as if she makes it she will be much shorter as she prepares to defend her crown.
At much bigger prices to that make appeal at this stage are Terrubi who has been on the improve in France recently with a return to good ground likely to suit, he is currently trading at 50/1.
I haven't given up on Oriental Fox who is very much overpriced at 66/1, he travelled smoothly in The Sagaro on hi seasonal return & the race was run against him last time at Sandown as all the action happened at the front leaving him with too much to do on pretty tacky ground. In the hope of good ground or faster at Ascot I quite fancy him to run a big race.
Britannia Stakes Handicap 1m
All of the last 10 winners had either won last time out or finished now worse than 5th.
3 winners came from Betfred Silver Bowl to win this race.
(1st / 2nd / 5th)
(2014: Chatez 1st / Zarwaan 2nd / First Flight 3rd / Hot Coffee 4th / Grevillea 5th)
Weight: 8-6 - 9-0
(Only 2 horses have won carrying more than 9 stone in the last 10 years)
Rating: 88 - 96
(Only two horses have won in the last 10 years rated less than 91)
(Only 1 horse in the last 10 years has won off a rating over 100)
2 x winners owned by Sheikh Hamdan in last 10 years.
In the 90's John Gosden had an excellent record in this race (winning twice & several placed horses) but he has not won it since the turn of the century (2000 El Gran Papa)
Tercentenary Stakes Group 3 1m2f
Race has a long & varied past, was originally run on the Saturday Heath fixture as the Churchill Stakes & has been won by some top horses down the years;
Sadeem 1986 & White Muzzle in 1994.
Became part of The Royal Meeting in 2002 & has attracted decent fields every year since.
Aidan O'Brien has won 2 in the last 10 years but they were back to back victories in 2004 / 2005.
Race is won by late maturing improving horses either stepping up from maiden's or minor handicap company.
The King George V Handicap Stakes
Sir Michael Stoute & Mark Johnston have had 2 winners each in the last 10 years.
Weight: 8-5 - 8-13
(No horse has carried more than 9 stone to win in the last 10 years)
Rating: 88 - 91
Only one of the last 10 winners had finished outside the first 3 on their last start with 4 previous winners following up.
7 of the last 10 had previously had handicap experience from various races with 3 winners having run at Haydock Park between May - June before their Ascot triumph.
The London Gold Cup at Newbury has only produced one winner in the last 10 years (Colony 3rd in 2008 before winning at RA)
Day Four
Albany Stakes Group 3 6f
Another relatively new addition to the meeting now in its 12th year.
Mick Channon is the trainer to follow, he has trained 3 winners so far.
Jeremy Noseda is next up with 2 winners sharing that accolade with Richard Hannon Snr.
Jamie Spencer has had some luck in this race with 4 wins since 2002 including last year on the wayward Kiyoshi.
4 winners in the last 10 years were breaking there maiden in this race.
4 winners in the last 10 years remained unbeaten when winning this race.
Winners have all had at least one run before Ascot.
King Edward VII Stakes Group 2 1m4f
More affectionately known as The Ascot Derby.
Again like the fillies equivalent horses that ran at Epsom have an average record with the last horse to win here after Epsom being Papal Bull in 2006.
Sir Michael Stoute, John Gosden & Mark Johnston have 2 wins apiece in the last 10 years.
Aidan O'Brien has just won win in this race in 2004 with Five Dynasties since then he has run 7 horses with no success.
7 winners finished in the first 3 on their last start.
Also rans from Derby trials have a decent record in the race from races such as the Chester Vase, Fairway Stakes & Lingfield Derby Trial.
Coronation Stakes Group 1 1m
John Gosden, Richard Hannon Snr & The Hills family have 2 winners apiece in the last 10 years.
1000 Guineas winners have won 3 out of the last 10 renewals.
4 horses that ran either placed or unplaced in 1000 Guineas have turned the form around at Ascot.
8 of the last 10 winners had contested at least one European 1000 Guineas
(English, French or Irish).
The French hold a strong hand in the entries at present with 8 entered up led by:
French 1000 Guineas winner Avenir Certain was a most impressive winner of her Classic quickening up well. She is unbeaten in 4 starts having won 2 minor races on the polytrack which is a help for the new Ascot course. 9/2 with 2 firms, once again it looks as though she is also heading to Chantilly.
Veda herself is also entered, well thought of by connections she was most disappointing last time, assuming she is fine after that she could be very interesting at around the current 8/1 mark as things have not gone to plan so far this year. With stablemate Shamkala heading to the Diane (she will win), the Coronation looks the main aim for Veda with the better ground at The Royal Meeting promising to suit.
I would take the price on her now as she won't be 8/1 next week.
Lesstalk In Paris was disappointing in The French Guineas behind her stablemate so she would need to bounce back, Xellance enjoyed a decent passage but seemed not to get home in top company so she would be a doubtful runner in this perhaps one at much bigger odds is Bawina well fancied for the French 1000 she never ever got a run & was badly bumped by the winner, she finished with a rattle so at current odds of 16/1 Paddy Power & Racbets.com she would be extremely interesting if she followed her fellow gaelic raiders across the channel although again her first preference is The Diane.
Lightning Thunder has run her heart out in 2 Guineas so she does deserve a decent prize. Ground is likely to be in her favour but she is a relatively lightly framed filly so I do wonder how much improvement she has in her, the potential opposition are more lightly raced & should have much more improvement. She is about the right price & I would be against her.
My Titania faces a huge task to win the Coronation on her seasonal debut after an interrupted spring. No filly since 1980 has ever won a Coronation first time up so she is much too short at current odds.
Rizeena 10/1 Bet365 / SkyBet is one who could easily trade shorter next week especially given that she was a strong 1000 Guineas favourite, she has 2 wins at Ascot & as I have said before Ascot has become a specialist track since the redevelopment so a better run from her would not surprise.
Wolferton Handicap Listed 1m2f
One of the newer races at The Royal Meeting run since 2002
John Gosden & Sir Michael Stoute have 2 wins apiece.
9 x 4yo's have won in 12 years
3 other wins have been shared by 1 x 5yo / 1 x 7yo & 1 x 8yo
Weight: 8-8 - 9-2
Rating: 98 - 108
2 winners since the races inception have won on their seasonal debuts.
7 winners in the last 12 years have finished no worse than 5th on their previous start.
2 winners ran well in the Hambleton Handicap at York.
Queens Vase Group 3 2m
Often been one of the lesser races of the meeting but in the last 2 years has been won by a future Gold Cup winner & a St Leger winner...ironic that this year it has been downgraded to Listed status.
Mark Johnston has an enviable record having won 6 renewals since 2001
(4 in the last 10 years).
Sir Michael Stoute also does well in this race with 4 winners since 1998
(2 in the last 10 years).
Aidan O'Brien has 3 winners in the last 10 years.
Saeed Bin Suroor is the only other trainer to have won the race in the last 10 years.
9 out of the last 10 winners finished no worse than 3rd on their previous start.
Only one horse has come from Epsom to win in the last 10 years Mahler in 2007.
6 out of the last 10 winners had contested a pattern race of at least Listed class on their last start.
Montaly from the Andrew Balding stable has been on my radar for this race, no surprise he looks all stamina being by 4 time Gold Cup winner Yeats. The stable has another horse who looks all stamina in Scotland an entry for him would be no surprise either.
Aidan O'Brien's Blue Hussar & Carlo Bugatti could easily end up here for this race this, they both looks slow so the 2 miles should suit.
Godolphin's Answered a strong powerful colt in training with John Oxx also looks as though a step up in trip could prove beneficial.
Buckingham Palace Stakes Handicap 7f
Another traditional Ascot cavalry charge which will feature all your old favourites.
Kevin Ryan has won 2 in the last 10 years.
Form in big field handicaps at Ascot is an advantage.
Weight: 8-11 - 9-7
Rating: 91 - 95
3 x 5yo's have in the last 10 years.
2 x 6yo's have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 4yo's have won in the last 10 years.
1 win apiece for 3yo / 7yo & 8yo.
9 out of the last 10 winners have finished no worse than 8th on their previous start.
Day Five
Chesham Stakes Listed
A race that is restricted to horses whose sire has won at a distance in excess of a mile.
Richard Hannon Snr is the winningest trainer in the last 10 years with 2 winners.
Aidan O'Brien has had only a handful of runners in the last 10 years with 1 winner from 6 runners.
6 out of the last 10 winners made it 2 from 2 in this race.
7 out of the last 10 had won a race before winning at Ascot.
3 out of the last 10 winners were breaking their maiden in this race including last year's emphatic winner Berkshire.
4 winners in the last 10 years have been sired by a Darley Stallion.
Dr Fong has sired 2 winners in the last 10 years.
2 winners in the last 10 years have been sired by a Coolmore Stallion.
Stout staying pedigrees come to the fore.
Hardwicke Stakes Group 2 1m4f
Sir Michael Stoute has won 4 renewals in the last 10 years. (7 in total)
Aidan O'Brien has 2 in the last 10 years.
Mark Johnston is another name to note with 4 wins in total but none since 2005.
Sheik Hamdan has had 3 winners in the last 10 years courtesy of dual winner Maraahel 06/07 & Bandari in 2005.
4 winners in the last 10 years won running well in the Coronation Cup at Epsom.
(2014: Flintshire 2nd)
2 winners in the last 10 years had previously won Huxley Stakes at Chester.
(2014: Telescope 2nd)
6 winners had finished no worse than 5th on their previous start.
4 winners in the last 10 years had previously won on their previous start.
Diamond Jubilee Stakes Group 1 6f
Less dominated by foreign raiders than the Kings Stand with only 2 winners in the last 10 years not being trained in England or Ireland.
1 x winner trained in Australia in the last 10 years.
1 x winner trained in Hong Kong in the last 10 years.
Smaller trainers / mid tier trainers have a decent record with 7 wins in the last 10 years.
3 x 4yo's have in the last 10 years.
2 x 5yo's have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 3yo's have won in the last 10 years.
(13 have won since 1980 which is a decent record against the older brigade)
2 x 6yo's have won in the last 10 years.
1 x 7yo has won in the last 10 years.
3 x winners in the last 10 years had previously run in the Duke Of York finishing 2nd / 5th & 13th. (2014: Maarek 1st / Astaire 2nd / 3rd Es Que Love / Hawkeyethenoo 5th / Tropics 13th)
3 x winners in the last 10 years had contested Tuesday's Kings Stand finishing 10th / 11th / 4th before winning this on the Saturday.
6 winners in the last 10 years had finished no worse than 5th on their last start.
Slade Power is a worthy favourite at current odds who will only shorten come next Saturday so if you fancy him take the price now.
Aljamaaheer has been aimed at this ever since missing the break on his first try at sprinting back in April, I would have preferred to have seen him try the discipline again so he looks short on what he has done so far.
Maarek is a tremendous old sprinter but the ground is likely to have gone against him as it will have for Gordon Lord Byron who is on course to return to these shores after a successful adventure down under.
At bigger odds Astaire looks overpriced after an excellent run in the Duke Of York, 3yo's have a decent record in this race he will be shorter next week so 20/1 with Bet365 is worth taking if you like him, two other youngsters worth mentioning come from Ballydoyle Guerre beat Maarek decisively last time, he has not been seen since but did it in the style of a useful horse especially against his elders for the first time 33/1 is a massive price. His stablemate Due Diligence is said in some quarters to be the best sprinter in Ireland after an emphatic display at Naas last time, that was only against 3yo's but visually it was a tremendous performance. Currently priced at 20/1 with most firms he will be an awful lot shorter if he goes in this next week (both are entered in the Kings Stand but you would imagine either both will come here or one in the Kings Stand & the other in this race).
After hearing the news the other day that Moviesta is likely to head to this race next Saturday rather than a Kings Stand which I think would suit him much better I am disappointed but he is still a big enough price for this currently 33/1 with Ladbrokes & Coral. He has a big race in him judged on last year & his run first time back this year so whatever race he turns up I will back him for both.
The horse I like at huge odds for this is Intibaah who looked a sprinter to follow after winning over course & distance last backend, He has already won quite comfortably in a Conditions event at Haydock which was used as a springboard to Society Rock's win a few years ago. His two best pieces of form have come at Ascot, even though his last 2 wins were on soft ground he will be fine on faster going as he acted on pretty fast ground at Ascot last year behind Ninjago. I have backed him at big odds earlier in the year & am more than happy to have a bit more of the 33/1 that is currently available. I just hope Moviesta doesn't run in this & connections have a change of heart.
Wokingham Handicap 6f
5 x 4yo's have won in the last 10 years.
3 x 5yo's have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 6yo's have won in the last 10 years.
Weight: 8-11 - 9-6
Rating: 95 - 106
8 out of the last 10 winners finished no worse than 4th on their previous start.
4 of the last 10 winners finished 2nd of their previous start.
2 of the last 10 winners won on their previous start.
1 of the last 10 winners won this race on their seasonal debut after an near 2 year break.
Keep an eye out for plot horses who are either lightly raced or extremely well weighted on old form as they do very well;
(3 winners in the last 10 years were plotted up months in advance Lafi 2004 / High Standing 2009 & Laddies Poker Two 2010)
York Glory went into many notebooks after an average ride last time, it will take some effort to win this again with 9-9, this does however look his aim so the 16/1 won't be available next week.
Intrinsic won nicely at Goodwood last time, he is a well bred Cheveley Park cast off who his trainer Robert Cowell really rates, he currently sits 74th in the list of entries so anyone who fancies him is in for a sweat, I would wait until next week until backing him just to guarantee he gets in.
Seeking Magic only just failed in last week's Dash, he will be much shorter if he takes his chance which you would expect him to. Intibaah is also entered up in this & around the 16/1 mark does make appeal as a backup in case he goes down the handicap route, I hope connections chase the big pot though.
Some other big priced horses to keep in mind who should trade shorter next week, recent course & distance scorer Blessington 20/1 loves these big handicaps & has class.
Ninjago 20/1 always well backed in these big sprints, deserves to win one & comes into this race on the back of a good first run, could easily go off favourite.
Don't Bother Me 33/1 took time to react to the drop back to sprinting last time but when he did he finished with a late rattle.
Great Minds (86th) & Barkston Ash (54th) will probably struggle to get in but they are two improving sprinters who will win a big handicap this season, Barkston Ash is the one who is more likely to get in but again I will be waiting until nearer the time. If they don't make it then don't worry just remember the names as they will give us a big payday later in the year.
Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap Stakes 1m4f
Sir Michael Stoute has trained 3 winners in the last 10 years.
Mark Johnston has trained 2 winners in the last 10 years.
Hughie Morrison is also a trainer to watch out for in this race with 2 winners in the last 11 years.
Weight: 8-11 - 9-8
Rating: 91 - 99
7 x 4yo's have won in the last 10 years.
3 x 5yo's have won in the last 10 years.
8 winners out of the last 10 years had finished no worse than than 3rd on their previous start.
4 winners in the last 10 years had won on their previous start.
3 winners in the last 10 years were placed in 1m4f handicap on Derby Day at Epsom on their previous start.
(2014: Miss Marjurie 1st / Stomachion 2nd / Blue Surf 3rd)
Queen Alexandra Stakes Conditions Race 2m6f
3 x 4yo's have won in the last 10 years.
3 x 5yo's have won in the last 10 years.
2 x 7yo's have won in the last 10 years.
1 x 6yo has won in the last 10 years.
1 x 12yo has won in the last 10 years.
Weight: 9-0 - 9-7
Rating: 92 - 105
NH trainers do not dominate nearly as much as they do in the Ascot Stakes;
3 wins in the last 10 years.
2 horses in the last 10 years have followed up in this race after winning Tuesday's Ascot Stakes (Simenon 2012 & Baddam 2006).
3 horses in the last 10 years have run in Tuesday's Ascot Stakes & gone on to win this race.
8 out of the last 10 winners finished no worse than 6th on their previous start.
3 of the last 10 winners won on their previous start.
@fttfracing
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