Hello & welcome along to the first of this weeks blogs, I will be blogging for all 5 days of the #RoyalMeeting they will be available via my personal blogger site & via +BetRacingNation TV website.
Day One has been rejigged after years of opening with 3 straight Group 1's that is now broken up by The Coventry Stakes which has been moved from its traditional Race 4 slot to now sit as the 2nd race on the card.
Toronado is the chosen one of the Richard Hannon trio that were entered, he returns to the track after an abject run in last season's Juddmonte. No horse has won this race on its seasonal debut since 1997 so he has a big job on, he has taken a long time to come to hand & I would be opposing him first time against race fit rivals. He still for me must prove that Sussex Stakes was what it was & not just down to a below par run from Dawn Approach.
Soft Falling Rain is a excellent fast miler who could easily burn off his rivals if he is allowed to race close to the pace like he did when impressively winning last year's Joel Stakes. Class horse who in my eyes is the best horse in this race but his trainer reported that his trip over from Dubai was less than perfect so that is a negative on his first run back which he needed when he was beaten for the first time in The Hungerford last year.
Verrazano ran a superb first race in this country when a tackling Turf & a straight course for the first time in The Lockinge. He looked ill at ease in the early stages but really got his act together late on when staying on takinly. A huge unit he will have come on for that run & with everything geared for this race he will take some stopping from last year's winning stable. Some Americans I have spoken to on Twitter cannot understand the price on the way his career finished in the states but in the early part of the year he looked very decent & perhaps Turf racing will be the making of him, 'The Coolmore Lads' rarely mess these buys up.
Tullius has enjoyed a great spring on soft ground & excelled himself last time in The Lockinge, he will do well to confirm form with Verrazano on hopefully better ground here.
Anodin was well thought of at 3 but failed to deliver in the top grade. He was 2nd last time to Cirrus Des Aigles but the race had little strength in depth. However his best form has been on good ground & he races as though a faster surface could suit him perfectly so he could easily turn in a career best performance in this, place chance.
Side Glance & Mull Of Killough are well travelled over the last season or so but there are only Group 3 class in this country.
Glory Awaits is hugely outclassed & has never shown that his shock 2nd in last year's 2000 Guineas was anymore than a fluke.
Producer a lesser known stablemate of Toronado's is a crack 7f specialist at Epsom, he just managed to get up in a Group 2 in Turkey over a mile in Turkey last season but in truth is a potential non stayer in this grade which is far too strong for him.
Ansgar has not won above handicap company in Ireland despite decent placed efforts in minor pattern company but is hopelessly outclassed in this grade.
Producer a lesser known stablemate of Toronado's is a crack 7f specialist at Epsom, he just managed to get up in a Group 2 in Turkey over a mile in Turkey last season but in truth is a potential non stayer in this grade which is far too strong for him.
Ansgar has not won above handicap company in Ireland despite decent placed efforts in minor pattern company but is hopelessly outclassed in this grade.
Verrazano (2ND) for me at a decent 4/1 Paddy Power to take another Queen Anne for Aidan O'Brien
The 2yo's are out in force in The Coventry Stakes next up, unbeaten horses have a decent record in this & the unbeaten Adaay has looked very useful in both his starts at Newbury & at Yarmouth handling fast ground perfectly. Should be very hard to keep out of the frame.
Angelic Lord just got up on debut in a ordinary maiden last time, judging by the time he looks too slow. Bossy Guest is well thought of & won in the style of a decent juvenile on his debut at York, not to be underestimated. Cappella Sanservo is unbeaten in 3 starts culminating in an impressive success in the Marble Hill Stakes a race that is a good trial for Tuesday's event, all his form is on soft or AW so faster ground at Ascot is an unknown but is respected as an unbeaten runner. Fellow Irish raider Case Statement won his maiden in impressive style last time out, it was an average race in a slow time so this is a big step up on what he's shown so far.
Cock Of The North is a good stamp of a horse who was well fancied for the National Stakes last time out where he fell out of the stalls for fitting any winning chance, the fact that he managed to get up for 2nd shows he has a good level of ability, the step up trip will suit & is an interesting outsider.
Commander Pattern has shown ability on both starts but is still a maiden & is biting of more than he can chew here. Dr No improved markedly from his debut when bursting Aktabantay's bubble comfortably at Nottingham last time in the style of a pattern class animal, interesting at a price. Jungle Cat was well beaten by another runner today in The Wow Signal on debut, he went on to Goodwood to break his maiden but this is a step up that will come too soon.
Justice Good is already pretty decent with 3 wins on the bounce after showing promise on his debut, he has won on ground varying from soft to good to firm, this is much harder & he strikes me more of a Nursery type towards minor pattern level.
Angelic Lord just got up on debut in a ordinary maiden last time, judging by the time he looks too slow. Bossy Guest is well thought of & won in the style of a decent juvenile on his debut at York, not to be underestimated. Cappella Sanservo is unbeaten in 3 starts culminating in an impressive success in the Marble Hill Stakes a race that is a good trial for Tuesday's event, all his form is on soft or AW so faster ground at Ascot is an unknown but is respected as an unbeaten runner. Fellow Irish raider Case Statement won his maiden in impressive style last time out, it was an average race in a slow time so this is a big step up on what he's shown so far.
Cock Of The North is a good stamp of a horse who was well fancied for the National Stakes last time out where he fell out of the stalls for fitting any winning chance, the fact that he managed to get up for 2nd shows he has a good level of ability, the step up trip will suit & is an interesting outsider.
Commander Pattern has shown ability on both starts but is still a maiden & is biting of more than he can chew here. Dr No improved markedly from his debut when bursting Aktabantay's bubble comfortably at Nottingham last time in the style of a pattern class animal, interesting at a price. Jungle Cat was well beaten by another runner today in The Wow Signal on debut, he went on to Goodwood to break his maiden but this is a step up that will come too soon.
Justice Good is already pretty decent with 3 wins on the bounce after showing promise on his debut, he has won on ground varying from soft to good to firm, this is much harder & he strikes me more of a Nursery type towards minor pattern level.
Kasb beat Justice Good on debut when putting up a taking performance in what is usually a good Newbury maiden, he then went to Pontefract on soft ground which did not suit but still managed to run well in 2nd, this ground should be fine & is a good backup to his owner mate Adaay. Kodi Bear showed massive promise on debut travelling well before being outpointed by Adaay, he will improve but this is a big ask on his 2nd start. Kool Kompany is another runner to be unbeaten in 3 starts, a striking individual with his bold white markings as so many Jeremy's are he has showed a smart turn of foot twice at Leicester on debut & at Windsor, his last win upped in grade at Naas showed another side to him as he gamely battled on to the line, has to be taken very seriously in this race.
Portamento needed his debut over 5f behind Mind Of Madness but still managed to show promise, he bounced out on the lead at Goodwood over 6f on soft to win in stylish fashion, better ground should be fine & looks a player in this.
Prophesize won a distinctly ordinary northern maiden on his debut a month ago in decent style but he faces a better quality of horse here.
The Wow Signal was breathtaking on debut winning by 9 lengths & 11 lengths (Jungle Cat 3rd), has since been picked up by Al Shaqab Racing & is rated very highly by his talented trainer, he looks all speed & this is a big test.
War Envoy is very well thought of by Aidan O'Brien, for a horse bred to get further he was out very early when winning in late April, since then ground has kept him off the track & when he did return he looked ring rusty behind Kool Kompany, this track & type of race should be perfect for him so he could easily turn that form around but whether he deserves to be favourite is debatable for me.
Cracking renewal, I have backed a couple of these on previous starts & will watch rather than bet for me it should involve Adaay, Kool Kompany, War Envoy & at a bigger price a horse to hit the frame Cock Of The North could easily outrun his odds.
Portamento needed his debut over 5f behind Mind Of Madness but still managed to show promise, he bounced out on the lead at Goodwood over 6f on soft to win in stylish fashion, better ground should be fine & looks a player in this.
Prophesize won a distinctly ordinary northern maiden on his debut a month ago in decent style but he faces a better quality of horse here.
The Wow Signal was breathtaking on debut winning by 9 lengths & 11 lengths (Jungle Cat 3rd), has since been picked up by Al Shaqab Racing & is rated very highly by his talented trainer, he looks all speed & this is a big test.
War Envoy is very well thought of by Aidan O'Brien, for a horse bred to get further he was out very early when winning in late April, since then ground has kept him off the track & when he did return he looked ring rusty behind Kool Kompany, this track & type of race should be perfect for him so he could easily turn that form around but whether he deserves to be favourite is debatable for me.
Cracking renewal, I have backed a couple of these on previous starts & will watch rather than bet for me it should involve Adaay, Kool Kompany, War Envoy & at a bigger price a horse to hit the frame Cock Of The North could easily outrun his odds.
The first major sprint of the week now the 3rd race on the card, it is well below Group 1 standard on paper with the top 3 in the betting standing head & shoulders above everything else on form.
Last year's winner Sole Power has his ground again, he will be ridden for the first time by Richard Hughes, I'm slightly unsure as to whether he will suit him as he is not an easy traveller like Hughes excels on, he needs to be got going early & looks like he takes a bit of knowing.
Shea Shea tries again after just getting collared by his old rival last year, he comes into this after finishing a disappointing 3rd in The Al Quoz at Meydan where he just never really picked up with his usual gusto.
The new kid on the block at sprint distances is Hot Streak, everything fell right for him last time in The Temple with the ground & the way the race was run, he won easily. Has won the Cornwallis over this course & distance on vastly different ground, for me I do wonder if he wants proper firm Ascot ground which he would have had they not over watered, with the ground as it is he is taken seriously in this.
Owner mate Pearl Secret was to be truthful easily put in place by Hot Streak last time out on ground that really should have suited, the recent rain & over excessive watering will help on Tuesday but again I wonder if he will quite fulfil the regard he his held in & I would be opposing him.
Ahtoug has shown improved form over the winter in Dubai just going down in The Al Quoz ahead of Shea Shea on his last run, he has some good Ascot form in the book winning at last year's Shergar Cup meeting, respected.
Ancil is a pretty average US sprinter who has been well beaten on his last 2 starts, ought to not be good enough.
Es Que Love has been transformed into a pretty useful Group class sprinter this year, he ran a blinder in The Abernant travelling like the winner before tiring late on, that promise was confirmed on ground that does not suit by finishing 3rd in Duke Of York. Hasn't tried this trip since 2012 but merits respect on what he has shown so far this year.
Jack Dexter's best form is on soft, he will do well to better his 4th placed finish from last year.
Medicean Man had a cracking winter in Dubai & some of his previous best form has been at Ascot, given his run style he will need luck in running.
Last year's winner Sole Power has his ground again, he will be ridden for the first time by Richard Hughes, I'm slightly unsure as to whether he will suit him as he is not an easy traveller like Hughes excels on, he needs to be got going early & looks like he takes a bit of knowing.
Shea Shea tries again after just getting collared by his old rival last year, he comes into this after finishing a disappointing 3rd in The Al Quoz at Meydan where he just never really picked up with his usual gusto.
The new kid on the block at sprint distances is Hot Streak, everything fell right for him last time in The Temple with the ground & the way the race was run, he won easily. Has won the Cornwallis over this course & distance on vastly different ground, for me I do wonder if he wants proper firm Ascot ground which he would have had they not over watered, with the ground as it is he is taken seriously in this.
Owner mate Pearl Secret was to be truthful easily put in place by Hot Streak last time out on ground that really should have suited, the recent rain & over excessive watering will help on Tuesday but again I wonder if he will quite fulfil the regard he his held in & I would be opposing him.
Ahtoug has shown improved form over the winter in Dubai just going down in The Al Quoz ahead of Shea Shea on his last run, he has some good Ascot form in the book winning at last year's Shergar Cup meeting, respected.
Ancil is a pretty average US sprinter who has been well beaten on his last 2 starts, ought to not be good enough.
Es Que Love has been transformed into a pretty useful Group class sprinter this year, he ran a blinder in The Abernant travelling like the winner before tiring late on, that promise was confirmed on ground that does not suit by finishing 3rd in Duke Of York. Hasn't tried this trip since 2012 but merits respect on what he has shown so far this year.
Jack Dexter's best form is on soft, he will do well to better his 4th placed finish from last year.
Medicean Man had a cracking winter in Dubai & some of his previous best form has been at Ascot, given his run style he will need luck in running.
Rex Imperator won last season's Stewards Cup in good style, he tried Group company last time to no avail, ran as well as ever on debut in a Listed race at Windsor a course he goes well at. He has never won at this trip & will likely be off his feet at the back before staying on late but he won't be good enough.
Stepper Point has yet to breakthrough in one of these & is outclassed.
Steps deserves a chance at a Group 1 after a luckless run in the Dash the other week, a much improved sprinter in the last year he could easily get involved. Take Cover has no hope in this grade.
Caledonia Lady has returned in fine form this season winning a fillies event at Nottingham last time after a good run in a similar race at Bath & she has yet to show that good fast ground is up her street.
Stepper Point has yet to breakthrough in one of these & is outclassed.
Steps deserves a chance at a Group 1 after a luckless run in the Dash the other week, a much improved sprinter in the last year he could easily get involved. Take Cover has no hope in this grade.
Caledonia Lady has returned in fine form this season winning a fillies event at Nottingham last time after a good run in a similar race at Bath & she has yet to show that good fast ground is up her street.
Green Door is a very fast horse who was consistent at 2 just below the top level, first time out could be when to catch him & he will have been primed for this with ground in his favour, another interesting horse at huge odds of 100/1.
Guerre was highly impressive on his last start his first at 5f & his first against older horses when readily disposing of Maarek (who has improved since), unexposed & could well turn out to be better than fellow 3yo Hot Streak.
Justice Day is a fabulous little horse who has done connections proud, he is not up to this class but could easily hit the frame at big odds due to his great attitude as he will be coming late in this company.
My main fancy for this race Moviesta goes for Saturday's big sprint which I feel is the wrong call so again I will leave this race alone.
Guerre was highly impressive on his last start his first at 5f & his first against older horses when readily disposing of Maarek (who has improved since), unexposed & could well turn out to be better than fellow 3yo Hot Streak.
Justice Day is a fabulous little horse who has done connections proud, he is not up to this class but could easily hit the frame at big odds due to his great attitude as he will be coming late in this company.
My main fancy for this race Moviesta goes for Saturday's big sprint which I feel is the wrong call so again I will leave this race alone.
The feature on Day One is The St James's Palace Stakes which has disappointedly but no unpredictably cut up to just 7 runners. It features the big rematch of 2000 Guineas 1-2 Night Of Thunder & Kingman; Kingman is widely expected to turn that form around after an easy win on soft ground at The Curragh when again the race was perfectly set up for him with a slow pace to use his explosive turn of foot exactly like the Greenham, I am in the minority but for me he is still unproven at a mile as the Curragh is an easy mile especially at extremely slow place the race was run at whereas Newmarket is stiff & was run at a much more even tempo.
Ascot's round mile is even stiffer & demands more of him although with the race cutting up as it has done a slow pace is again most likely especially as only stablemate Toormore is the only horse in the race to have made the running previously. His participation in my eyes is the main reason why the ground (that was fast when I walked the course last week) has been watered on the Friday afternoon & then predictably so afterwards we experienced an epic thunderstorm where 15mm fell on the track changing the watered ground to good to soft, a further 8mm fell on Sat which kept it on the easy side the ground. I do not understand the fascination of clerks to over water in the summer to avoid genuine fast Flat racing ground after all it is what proper Flat animals should be bred for.
Night Of Thunder was of course a shock winner of the Guineas but in truth after watching the replay several times he won impressively showing an excellent turn of foot to powerfully take the lead, if he hadn't off drifted so badly right he would have won easily by over 2 lengths. He improved markedly on his debut behind Kingman appreciating the distance & more even pace. Tuesday's race is looking more tactical so he has to show he is versatile in regards to running of a likely slower pace.
2000 Guineas also rans Toormore, War Command & Outstrip re-oppose on Tuesday;
Toormore just ran flat, never really threatening, he needs to bounce back here & I have my doubts as he looks fairly one dimensional, his best hope looks to rest on if they make the running at his own pace as they did in the Craven on his seasonal return where he saw off a wayward The Grey Gatsby (now much improved).
War Command was another to disappoint at Newmarket, he was due to run at The Curragh before the ground softened. His single best performance is still last year's Coventry where he demolished his rivals. He is a straightforward ride who could easily appreciate the lack of depth in this race on Tuesday.
Outstrip was very disappointing at Newmarket finishing almost tailed off, it has since come to light he was not 100%, he has been showing his old sparkle in the last week. The e/w angle to the race has disappeared with just 7 runners otherwise I would have been considering backing him, the other problem now is the ground which would have suited him had they not watered.
Prince Of All was another late absentee from the Irish 2000 Guineas, he is unbeaten this season at Dundalk in 2 minor races, this is a big ask with little pattern experience.
Yuften is the most surprising runner from a trainer that rarely tilts at windmills or ruins handicap marks. He has long been well thought & he bolted up on his seasonal debut in a decent Newmarket maiden. Work to do but perhaps the most interesting runner in the whole race.
With 7 runners declared the e/w has gone otherwise I would have been tempted by Outstrip but as is it is it's a race I will not be getting involved with.
The first of the week's staying events is the penultimate race on the card, a race that is usually won by horses towards the top of the weights. Sir Graham Wade has been a very disappointing animal since his 3yo career, the handicapper has given him a chance after a series of disastrous runs. Player if bouncing back. Villa Royale was impressive at York last time from a big weight over 2 miles at York last time, she is up again here & this demands a lot more. Cullentry Royal took advantage of a reduced Flat mark last time out but that was a 4th career win, looks harshly judged by the English handicapper now.
Sizzler remains with potential at this kind of trip but I would prefer to a few lbs lower here. Lieutenant Miller was well fancied last year when only 3rd, he returns on his seasonal debut this time around off a higher mark, player but usually finds one too good. Domination was well fancied in last year's Cesarewitch when finishing an extremely disappointing 25th, he has shown very little on his last few NH starts & returns to the flat on a much higher mark. Body Language is another who looks pretty hard done by & needs more. Ballinderry Boy was an improving young stayer at the end of last season on soft ground, he ran as well as could be expected in a pipe opener at Windsor recently, this has been his first big aim & with his young riders 3lb claim he has to respected. Asbaab promises to well suited by an extreme distance, he showed little on his seasonal debut but this should be more to his liking, could easily go well from a slightly reduced mark. Perfect Heart improved for soft ground over longer distances last backend, on form with Ballinderry Boy there should be little between them, the main stumbling block for him is the ground as soft ground does appear important. On Juvenile hurdles form Plinth looks well in off his current mark, he didn't quite make the top grade but was not far below, his earlier Flat form was fairly limited but he returns at a distance that should suit, respected. Suraj has a right chance from this mark of 90, the issue is he looks extremely slow & one paced. Spencer knows him well so if Henderson has unlocked the door he could easily pop up at a big price.
Waterclock ran a huge race in last year's Cesarewitch finishing a good 2nd off 88, he races of just 2lbs higher here on only his 3rd try at such an extreme distance, forget the Chester Cup he had little hope from his draw, player. Sohar is hard to win with & is set to struggle for all he can travel well. Gabrial's King is weighted out of this at present. Agreement is unexposed from a trainer who does well with this type of horse, ground any better than good to soft is a concern on what he has shown.
Another Cocktail should stay on breeding & on run style, he should also improve for this distance from his reduced mark, his best run of last season came at Royal Ascot. Sardinia is a ex Aidan O'Brien horse who showed nothing on his return to the Flat last time out, previous to that was tried in graded Juvenile company after a maiden hurdle win at Wexford, mark makes him interesting at the foot of the weights as the extreme distance should suit fine. The booking of the wily old fox Fallon for Ray Ward makes him interesting, form last season was in & out but his best run came here in The Queen's Vase over 2 miles. Brockwell has been well fancied for many staying handicaps over the last year as a result of some average runs he now races of only 4lbs higher than his last winning mark back in 2012, could he finally bag a decent race he is certainly interesting.
No strong fancy for me in this race although Ballinderry Boy, Another Cocktail, Suraj & Waterclock all look capable of getting involved.
The final race on Day One is The Windsor Castle Stakes over the minimum trip with 25 runners so the draw will play a part, high draws historically help in these races down the Ascot straight. Among Angels confirmed his debut promise with a ready win at Windsor on soft ground last time, steps up here from a low draw.
Biting Bullets is making his racecourse debut, speedily bred but surely work to do.
Bwana is a speedy horse from Ireland who has some decent form to his name, back to 5 furlongs from a decent draw he could go well. Casterbridge broke his maiden last time in an ordinary race at Ayr & is drawn low on Tuesday, work to do with the best of these.
Commander Pattern has yet to win after 2 very decent runs at 6f, dropping back in trip should suit but would be a surprise winner from a low draw.
Cotai Glory showed distinct greenness on debut when last of 7 at Nottingham, entitled to improve but not in this. Denzille Lane comes from a minor race at Southwell, this is completely different & he has little chance.
Flyball is a useful individual who has been well outpaced by better animals on his last start. Four Seasons improved markedly from his debut when winning comfortably at Leicester on heavy ground, the step back in trip is far from certain to suit.
Fuwairt did not have to improve much from his debut to win an ordinary Chepstow maiden on soft ground, this demands more even allowing for a good looking draw.
Goring showed up well on debut behind Adaay (& Among Angels), he looked like a maiden win was on the horizon next time but ground went against him when fading over 6f behind Four Seasons, the step back down in trip on I hope good ground should suit & this speedy horse can easily outrun his big odds although I am taking a chance as he is drawn low. Harry Hurricane has a high draw but is still a maiden & does have to turn form around with a couple of these. Haxby has already shown a decent level of ability, he travels nicely into his race which is a plus in a race like this from a high draw.
Hootenanny is American trainer Wesley Ward's first runner of the week & according to reports on twitter is his best, he has winning form on polytrack at Keeneland easily in a good time, since that run he has been beaten in a Listed event on the Pimlico muddy dirt surface which can be forgiven. He has a perfect high draw up against the the stands side rails under Kentucky Derby winning jockey Victor Espinoza.
Majestic Hero won readily at Chepstow after being outpointed by Kool Kompany on debut, could be an outsider who can outrun his odds.
Merdon Castle also has form with Kool Kompany going down by half a length at Windsor last time, could easily go well with Ryan Moore booked.
Midterm Break won the Brian Yeardley well at Beverley last time out, he had previously won a Southwell maiden, speedy horse who has chances.
Mind Of Madness was so impressive on debut in a decent race at Newmarket by 4.5 lengths, he then reappeared in a hot Yarmouth race when getting outpointed by Adaay, that race did not really suit him whereas Tuesday race should be right up his street although he will need luck in running.
Mubtaghaa scrambled home last time at short odds after an excellent run on debut at Ascot, another who can be given a chance.
Prince Bonnaire was disappointing beaten last time at Musselburgh although he was hampered so that run can be forgiven, interesting. Roudee has shown good form in 2 decent races The National at Sandown & The Lily Agnes at Chester, fast pace here could bring about desired improvement.
Union Rose has work to do as does Boann on only her 2nd start.
Sarista pulled too hard to last home in a fillies Listed race at York last time, pacey filly if she can be held together she could put the speed to the low drawn horses.
Somedaysrdiamonds makes her debut from the lowest stall of all, speedily bred but will have to be smart to be winning here.
Tough race in which the reports on Hootenanny (WON) suggest he is a good thing so at 9/1 William Hill he is worth backing.
Ascot's round mile is even stiffer & demands more of him although with the race cutting up as it has done a slow pace is again most likely especially as only stablemate Toormore is the only horse in the race to have made the running previously. His participation in my eyes is the main reason why the ground (that was fast when I walked the course last week) has been watered on the Friday afternoon & then predictably so afterwards we experienced an epic thunderstorm where 15mm fell on the track changing the watered ground to good to soft, a further 8mm fell on Sat which kept it on the easy side the ground. I do not understand the fascination of clerks to over water in the summer to avoid genuine fast Flat racing ground after all it is what proper Flat animals should be bred for.
Night Of Thunder was of course a shock winner of the Guineas but in truth after watching the replay several times he won impressively showing an excellent turn of foot to powerfully take the lead, if he hadn't off drifted so badly right he would have won easily by over 2 lengths. He improved markedly on his debut behind Kingman appreciating the distance & more even pace. Tuesday's race is looking more tactical so he has to show he is versatile in regards to running of a likely slower pace.
2000 Guineas also rans Toormore, War Command & Outstrip re-oppose on Tuesday;
Toormore just ran flat, never really threatening, he needs to bounce back here & I have my doubts as he looks fairly one dimensional, his best hope looks to rest on if they make the running at his own pace as they did in the Craven on his seasonal return where he saw off a wayward The Grey Gatsby (now much improved).
War Command was another to disappoint at Newmarket, he was due to run at The Curragh before the ground softened. His single best performance is still last year's Coventry where he demolished his rivals. He is a straightforward ride who could easily appreciate the lack of depth in this race on Tuesday.
Outstrip was very disappointing at Newmarket finishing almost tailed off, it has since come to light he was not 100%, he has been showing his old sparkle in the last week. The e/w angle to the race has disappeared with just 7 runners otherwise I would have been considering backing him, the other problem now is the ground which would have suited him had they not watered.
Prince Of All was another late absentee from the Irish 2000 Guineas, he is unbeaten this season at Dundalk in 2 minor races, this is a big ask with little pattern experience.
Yuften is the most surprising runner from a trainer that rarely tilts at windmills or ruins handicap marks. He has long been well thought & he bolted up on his seasonal debut in a decent Newmarket maiden. Work to do but perhaps the most interesting runner in the whole race.
With 7 runners declared the e/w has gone otherwise I would have been tempted by Outstrip but as is it is it's a race I will not be getting involved with.
The first of the week's staying events is the penultimate race on the card, a race that is usually won by horses towards the top of the weights. Sir Graham Wade has been a very disappointing animal since his 3yo career, the handicapper has given him a chance after a series of disastrous runs. Player if bouncing back. Villa Royale was impressive at York last time from a big weight over 2 miles at York last time, she is up again here & this demands a lot more. Cullentry Royal took advantage of a reduced Flat mark last time out but that was a 4th career win, looks harshly judged by the English handicapper now.
Sizzler remains with potential at this kind of trip but I would prefer to a few lbs lower here. Lieutenant Miller was well fancied last year when only 3rd, he returns on his seasonal debut this time around off a higher mark, player but usually finds one too good. Domination was well fancied in last year's Cesarewitch when finishing an extremely disappointing 25th, he has shown very little on his last few NH starts & returns to the flat on a much higher mark. Body Language is another who looks pretty hard done by & needs more. Ballinderry Boy was an improving young stayer at the end of last season on soft ground, he ran as well as could be expected in a pipe opener at Windsor recently, this has been his first big aim & with his young riders 3lb claim he has to respected. Asbaab promises to well suited by an extreme distance, he showed little on his seasonal debut but this should be more to his liking, could easily go well from a slightly reduced mark. Perfect Heart improved for soft ground over longer distances last backend, on form with Ballinderry Boy there should be little between them, the main stumbling block for him is the ground as soft ground does appear important. On Juvenile hurdles form Plinth looks well in off his current mark, he didn't quite make the top grade but was not far below, his earlier Flat form was fairly limited but he returns at a distance that should suit, respected. Suraj has a right chance from this mark of 90, the issue is he looks extremely slow & one paced. Spencer knows him well so if Henderson has unlocked the door he could easily pop up at a big price.
Waterclock ran a huge race in last year's Cesarewitch finishing a good 2nd off 88, he races of just 2lbs higher here on only his 3rd try at such an extreme distance, forget the Chester Cup he had little hope from his draw, player. Sohar is hard to win with & is set to struggle for all he can travel well. Gabrial's King is weighted out of this at present. Agreement is unexposed from a trainer who does well with this type of horse, ground any better than good to soft is a concern on what he has shown.
Another Cocktail should stay on breeding & on run style, he should also improve for this distance from his reduced mark, his best run of last season came at Royal Ascot. Sardinia is a ex Aidan O'Brien horse who showed nothing on his return to the Flat last time out, previous to that was tried in graded Juvenile company after a maiden hurdle win at Wexford, mark makes him interesting at the foot of the weights as the extreme distance should suit fine. The booking of the wily old fox Fallon for Ray Ward makes him interesting, form last season was in & out but his best run came here in The Queen's Vase over 2 miles. Brockwell has been well fancied for many staying handicaps over the last year as a result of some average runs he now races of only 4lbs higher than his last winning mark back in 2012, could he finally bag a decent race he is certainly interesting.
No strong fancy for me in this race although Ballinderry Boy, Another Cocktail, Suraj & Waterclock all look capable of getting involved.
The final race on Day One is The Windsor Castle Stakes over the minimum trip with 25 runners so the draw will play a part, high draws historically help in these races down the Ascot straight. Among Angels confirmed his debut promise with a ready win at Windsor on soft ground last time, steps up here from a low draw.
Biting Bullets is making his racecourse debut, speedily bred but surely work to do.
Bwana is a speedy horse from Ireland who has some decent form to his name, back to 5 furlongs from a decent draw he could go well. Casterbridge broke his maiden last time in an ordinary race at Ayr & is drawn low on Tuesday, work to do with the best of these.
Commander Pattern has yet to win after 2 very decent runs at 6f, dropping back in trip should suit but would be a surprise winner from a low draw.
Cotai Glory showed distinct greenness on debut when last of 7 at Nottingham, entitled to improve but not in this. Denzille Lane comes from a minor race at Southwell, this is completely different & he has little chance.
Flyball is a useful individual who has been well outpaced by better animals on his last start. Four Seasons improved markedly from his debut when winning comfortably at Leicester on heavy ground, the step back in trip is far from certain to suit.
Fuwairt did not have to improve much from his debut to win an ordinary Chepstow maiden on soft ground, this demands more even allowing for a good looking draw.
Goring showed up well on debut behind Adaay (& Among Angels), he looked like a maiden win was on the horizon next time but ground went against him when fading over 6f behind Four Seasons, the step back down in trip on I hope good ground should suit & this speedy horse can easily outrun his big odds although I am taking a chance as he is drawn low. Harry Hurricane has a high draw but is still a maiden & does have to turn form around with a couple of these. Haxby has already shown a decent level of ability, he travels nicely into his race which is a plus in a race like this from a high draw.
Hootenanny is American trainer Wesley Ward's first runner of the week & according to reports on twitter is his best, he has winning form on polytrack at Keeneland easily in a good time, since that run he has been beaten in a Listed event on the Pimlico muddy dirt surface which can be forgiven. He has a perfect high draw up against the the stands side rails under Kentucky Derby winning jockey Victor Espinoza.
Majestic Hero won readily at Chepstow after being outpointed by Kool Kompany on debut, could be an outsider who can outrun his odds.
Merdon Castle also has form with Kool Kompany going down by half a length at Windsor last time, could easily go well with Ryan Moore booked.
Midterm Break won the Brian Yeardley well at Beverley last time out, he had previously won a Southwell maiden, speedy horse who has chances.
Mind Of Madness was so impressive on debut in a decent race at Newmarket by 4.5 lengths, he then reappeared in a hot Yarmouth race when getting outpointed by Adaay, that race did not really suit him whereas Tuesday race should be right up his street although he will need luck in running.
Mubtaghaa scrambled home last time at short odds after an excellent run on debut at Ascot, another who can be given a chance.
Prince Bonnaire was disappointing beaten last time at Musselburgh although he was hampered so that run can be forgiven, interesting. Roudee has shown good form in 2 decent races The National at Sandown & The Lily Agnes at Chester, fast pace here could bring about desired improvement.
Union Rose has work to do as does Boann on only her 2nd start.
Sarista pulled too hard to last home in a fillies Listed race at York last time, pacey filly if she can be held together she could put the speed to the low drawn horses.
Somedaysrdiamonds makes her debut from the lowest stall of all, speedily bred but will have to be smart to be winning here.
Tough race in which the reports on Hootenanny (WON) suggest he is a good thing so at 9/1 William Hill he is worth backing.
@fttfracing
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