Hello & welcome along to my blog for the final Day of the #CheltenhamFestival honestly I never thought I would make it through to the end of the week as my wife & I were expecting our first baby on the opening day but as it has panned out the little ankle biter has decided that staying in Mummy's tummy is the best place to be for a little longer on the plus side I have got to watch the whole of the Festival, also for the future there will be no birthday parties getting in the way of the Festival which is a silver lining, hopefully sometime soon I will become a father which I am equally nervous & excited about.
Yesterday was desperate on the betting front although the majority of the horses I backed were big prices hoping to hit the frame playing up my Jezki winnings from Day One as I found the Thursday card harder to fathom, my main bet of the day was Balnaslow in The Kim Muir he just did to much throughout the race & did not stay in the end dropping away, the one I was gutted about was that I did not take a chance by backing Ballynagour after being on him at big price in last year's renewal but there's no point crying over what might have been after all Jezki's win alone has paid for the whole week & a few more weeks to come.
Yesterday was desperate on the betting front although the majority of the horses I backed were big prices hoping to hit the frame playing up my Jezki winnings from Day One as I found the Thursday card harder to fathom, my main bet of the day was Balnaslow in The Kim Muir he just did to much throughout the race & did not stay in the end dropping away, the one I was gutted about was that I did not take a chance by backing Ballynagour after being on him at big price in last year's renewal but there's no point crying over what might have been after all Jezki's win alone has paid for the whole week & a few more weeks to come.
Anyway onwards to the final day's action starting with The Triumph Hurdle, Calipto (see photo below) heads the market after 2 excellent Newbury wins, I was impressed with him in the paddock at Newbury on his UK debut & it was no surprise that he won well. On breeding he should be fine on the better going so he will be hard to keep out of the frame.
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Broughton was a useful flat handicapper from Mark Johnston who seemed to be going backwards towards the end of last season, pitched in deep in a weak Grade 2 at Doncaster he ran an excellent race to finish 2nd, he duly obliged next time at Musselburgh, he represents John Ferguson's best chance so far of a Festival winner but I do doubt he is really classy enough to win a Triumph.
Guitar Pete was average on the flat in Ireland but has taken to the hurdling game with some aplomb however you don't see many Triumph winners winning the previous September so he just may lack the true class to be a Festival winner.
Tiger Roll excelled himself behind the aforementioned Guitar Pete in a Grade 1 last time on his first start for Gordon Elliott previous to that he has won an ordinary Market Rasen Novice for Nigel Hawke, he is by Authorized whose stock to me need softer ground.
Royal Irish Hussar is a similar horse to Guitar Pete ie he won early season juveniles before (beating Guitar Pete on his last win) before disappointing on the softer ground at Doncaster, I don't see him being good enough.
The John Quinn trained duo of Rutherglen & Pearl Castle also take their chance, on jockey bookings I believe that Pearl Castle (see photo below) is the first string he travelled smoothly & bounded up the straight at Doncaster on his 2nd start winning very impressively from older opposition, next time back at Doncaster he was made to work harder back in his own age group with a penalty but he still pulled away at the end. Back on better ground I expect him to travel smoothly before running away with the race.
His stablemate Rutherglen is unbeaten in 3 starts all on soft ground, he also won a 2 mile handicap on Kempton's AWT, like most by his sire he is better on soft ground & strikes me as a stayer.
Plinth represents Aidan O'Brien who is back in amongst the jumpers this season with a select few, he finished well beaten behind Guitar Pete / Tiger Roll last time but better can be expected on Friday as he will appreciate better ground.
Abbyssial has won his last 3 starts but has not beaten much however he is improving so if he handles the ground he has chances, his stablemate Adriana Des Mottes who he beat last time also takes her chance she should be ok on the ground but does have to improve.
Lindenhurst was the horse Guitar Pete beat on his debut win back in September & he returned the favour by gaining his revenge next time, he has not been seen since due to the ground I doubt if he is good enough but his small trainer had Orgigolo Bay run very well in The Fred Winter. Kentucky Hyden is outclassed for me as is Ballglasheen (who was pulled up in The Fred Winter), Amoruccio, Cherry Tiger & Achtung.
I am keen on Pearl Castle & have backed him Ante Post with Calipto & Plinth chasing him home.
The Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle has turned into an Irish benefit in recent years with 6 of the last 7 winners coming from the Emerald Isle, only 2 horses have carried 11 stone or more to win this in the last 10 years & your looking for a horse carrying between 10-0 - 10-13 for me.
Using this as a guide it rules out the top 4 in the weights Diakali, Flaxen Flare (consistent in top handicaps so a definite place chance), Cinders And Ashes, Runswick Royal & Upazo. With 28 runners I will skim over them & list the next few that I will knock off for varying reasons Anay Turge (better known as a useful chaser), Lough Kent (didn't show enough on UK debut), Citizenship (disappointed when favourite 2 years ago & in 'n out this year), Tzora, Morning Royalty, Jumps Road (not up to this), Master Of The Game, Makari (need to improve), Cash And Go (been disappointing for a long time now for all the ability he has), Rainbow Peak (not enough experience for this & his very best form on the flat (Won weak Italian Group 1 for Godolphin) was on soft)), Deep Trouble (too high in the weights), Lyvius (never shown enough in big field handicaps) & Strongpoint (good form last twice but this is much tougher for a 10 yr old).
So that leaves 10 to look at starting with the well supported favourite Arctic Fire who has been easily brushed aside in Grade 1 Novices the last twice but has a decent looking mark. Montbazon ran as well as could be expected on bad ground in The Betfair, he was 4th in the 2012 Supreme & looks feasibly treated on that form.
Minella Foru (see photo below) is a useful Novice in Ireland if slightly below top Graded class, he is the choice of AP McCoy so will be well supported better ground should be ok but his experience is a worry.
Lac Fontana was entitled to win last time when the weights favoured him before that he had taken an age to break his maiden & I just could not have him on my mind.
Thomas Edison was my selection in this last year only for him to not run, he is well handicapped & will enjoy the ground.
Dunraven Storm has been spared the horrible winter ground for this & looks to have a really decent chance although its his stablemate Cheltenian the former surprise Bumper winner of a few years ago, he broke his maiden last year before running well in The Betfair, I much prefer his stablemate though.
Old Barizan almost won a Triumph back in 2010 going off a million miles an hour only to just get caught up the hill, he is miles better on better ground & has not been since last summer & is now with Donald McCain, very interesting outsider.
Alaivian will no doubt have his supporters off a much lower mark than when he was 6th in this race in 2011 when I had backed him, he has been gambled on a couple of times this year already & I can see that idiot Pricewise tipping him up on Friday. He is well in on his old form but the problem remains with him in that his wins have been in smaller fields & he has never quite fulfilled his potential.
In a 28 runner field 2 bets is more than acceptable so I will be with Thomas Edison 25/1 & Dunraven Storm 25/1.
The Albert Bartlett according to the Bookies is a match between Briar Hill & Kings Palace. I cannot have Briar Hill at all he has beaten trees in Ireland & was a shock winner of The Bumper last year, he doesn't do anything at home so I couldn't see him turning out as good as stablemates Vautour or Faugheen.
Kings Palace is a decent Ante Post bet for me after a string of impressive performances in the early Autumn, he has not been seen since early December but looks a real galloper who jumps superbly. I expect him to go very close.
Captain Cutter (see photo below) is a lovely horse who actually beat Kings Palace on his Bumper debut at Ascot, he seems best on soft ground & has operated under the radar with most pundits assuming the opinion he isn't really that good but he still managed to win The Grade 1 Challow last time. The ground is the worry to me but his sire Westerner sired Western Warhorse earlier in the week so it gives hope.
Champagne West is another big strapping son of Westerner who has improved massively winning a couple of handicaps well in his last 2 starts, it is a step up in class for him at this stage of his career. Cogry has been operating at a much lower level & this is a huge step up & for me is outclassed as is Madness Light, Masters Hill, Prince Siegfried, Regal Diamond, Rydon Pynes, Saint Roque & The Job Is Right.
Blakemount looks a really nice young horse who went down fighting last time to Urban Hymn who renews rivalry today on soft ground, being by Presenting Blakemount should enjoy the better ground whereas Urban Hymn has to show he can handle it. They are 2 very nice horses who should go on to win plenty of races of fences in the next few years.
Sausalito Sunrise was in behind both the 2 aforementioned horses last time & has to improve to figure.
Deputy Dan has steadily appeared on the scene most recently winning impressively at Warwick form which has worked out really well, on his first start this season he was beaten by Champagne West who has also improved so it depends who has improved more. Apache Jack was beaten by Briar Hill last time in a tactical affair on breeding he will appreciate the step up in trip & the better ground. Very Wood was 3rd behind Briar Hill / Apache Jack in that 3 runner race, the step up in trip will suit but I'm not sure the ground will be to his liking.
The last 2 runner I will mention are animals I really like Port Melon & Mosspark, Port Melon (see photo below) has not been seen since the November meeting when he travelled like a class horse before tiring late on, he was one of the best English pointers of last season & to me it is significant that Paul Nicholls is letting him take his chance, he is very much overpriced.
Mosspark (see photo below) has won all 3 of his starts in good style this season including a Listed event at Huntingdon last time after which his trainer Emma Lavelle was quoted as saying he would miss Chelenethan & go chasing, this is why I am not that much of a fan of her as a trainer as she constantly changes her mind.
On his last point to point start he was beaten by Annacotty so add his 3 unbeaten hurdles runs he clearly has a very good level of ability, he looks a real galloper who will make an excellent chaser, he has to show he can handle the better ground if he does he will surprise a few.
I have backed Kings Palace Ante Post but it is a really deep race & I will be backing both Port Melon 33/1 & Mosspark 20/1 who are overpriced.
The Blue Riband of steeplechasing is of course The Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup which is the feature on Day 4 & of the whole week.
Broughton was a useful flat handicapper from Mark Johnston who seemed to be going backwards towards the end of last season, pitched in deep in a weak Grade 2 at Doncaster he ran an excellent race to finish 2nd, he duly obliged next time at Musselburgh, he represents John Ferguson's best chance so far of a Festival winner but I do doubt he is really classy enough to win a Triumph.
Guitar Pete was average on the flat in Ireland but has taken to the hurdling game with some aplomb however you don't see many Triumph winners winning the previous September so he just may lack the true class to be a Festival winner.
Tiger Roll excelled himself behind the aforementioned Guitar Pete in a Grade 1 last time on his first start for Gordon Elliott previous to that he has won an ordinary Market Rasen Novice for Nigel Hawke, he is by Authorized whose stock to me need softer ground.
Royal Irish Hussar is a similar horse to Guitar Pete ie he won early season juveniles before (beating Guitar Pete on his last win) before disappointing on the softer ground at Doncaster, I don't see him being good enough.
The John Quinn trained duo of Rutherglen & Pearl Castle also take their chance, on jockey bookings I believe that Pearl Castle (see photo below) is the first string he travelled smoothly & bounded up the straight at Doncaster on his 2nd start winning very impressively from older opposition, next time back at Doncaster he was made to work harder back in his own age group with a penalty but he still pulled away at the end. Back on better ground I expect him to travel smoothly before running away with the race.
His stablemate Rutherglen is unbeaten in 3 starts all on soft ground, he also won a 2 mile handicap on Kempton's AWT, like most by his sire he is better on soft ground & strikes me as a stayer.
Plinth represents Aidan O'Brien who is back in amongst the jumpers this season with a select few, he finished well beaten behind Guitar Pete / Tiger Roll last time but better can be expected on Friday as he will appreciate better ground.
Abbyssial has won his last 3 starts but has not beaten much however he is improving so if he handles the ground he has chances, his stablemate Adriana Des Mottes who he beat last time also takes her chance she should be ok on the ground but does have to improve.
Lindenhurst was the horse Guitar Pete beat on his debut win back in September & he returned the favour by gaining his revenge next time, he has not been seen since due to the ground I doubt if he is good enough but his small trainer had Orgigolo Bay run very well in The Fred Winter. Kentucky Hyden is outclassed for me as is Ballglasheen (who was pulled up in The Fred Winter), Amoruccio, Cherry Tiger & Achtung.
I am keen on Pearl Castle & have backed him Ante Post with Calipto & Plinth chasing him home.
The Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle has turned into an Irish benefit in recent years with 6 of the last 7 winners coming from the Emerald Isle, only 2 horses have carried 11 stone or more to win this in the last 10 years & your looking for a horse carrying between 10-0 - 10-13 for me.
Using this as a guide it rules out the top 4 in the weights Diakali, Flaxen Flare (consistent in top handicaps so a definite place chance), Cinders And Ashes, Runswick Royal & Upazo. With 28 runners I will skim over them & list the next few that I will knock off for varying reasons Anay Turge (better known as a useful chaser), Lough Kent (didn't show enough on UK debut), Citizenship (disappointed when favourite 2 years ago & in 'n out this year), Tzora, Morning Royalty, Jumps Road (not up to this), Master Of The Game, Makari (need to improve), Cash And Go (been disappointing for a long time now for all the ability he has), Rainbow Peak (not enough experience for this & his very best form on the flat (Won weak Italian Group 1 for Godolphin) was on soft)), Deep Trouble (too high in the weights), Lyvius (never shown enough in big field handicaps) & Strongpoint (good form last twice but this is much tougher for a 10 yr old).
So that leaves 10 to look at starting with the well supported favourite Arctic Fire who has been easily brushed aside in Grade 1 Novices the last twice but has a decent looking mark. Montbazon ran as well as could be expected on bad ground in The Betfair, he was 4th in the 2012 Supreme & looks feasibly treated on that form.
Minella Foru (see photo below) is a useful Novice in Ireland if slightly below top Graded class, he is the choice of AP McCoy so will be well supported better ground should be ok but his experience is a worry.
Lac Fontana was entitled to win last time when the weights favoured him before that he had taken an age to break his maiden & I just could not have him on my mind.
Thomas Edison was my selection in this last year only for him to not run, he is well handicapped & will enjoy the ground.
Dunraven Storm has been spared the horrible winter ground for this & looks to have a really decent chance although its his stablemate Cheltenian the former surprise Bumper winner of a few years ago, he broke his maiden last year before running well in The Betfair, I much prefer his stablemate though.
Old Barizan almost won a Triumph back in 2010 going off a million miles an hour only to just get caught up the hill, he is miles better on better ground & has not been since last summer & is now with Donald McCain, very interesting outsider.
Alaivian will no doubt have his supporters off a much lower mark than when he was 6th in this race in 2011 when I had backed him, he has been gambled on a couple of times this year already & I can see that idiot Pricewise tipping him up on Friday. He is well in on his old form but the problem remains with him in that his wins have been in smaller fields & he has never quite fulfilled his potential.
In a 28 runner field 2 bets is more than acceptable so I will be with Thomas Edison 25/1 & Dunraven Storm 25/1.
The Albert Bartlett according to the Bookies is a match between Briar Hill & Kings Palace. I cannot have Briar Hill at all he has beaten trees in Ireland & was a shock winner of The Bumper last year, he doesn't do anything at home so I couldn't see him turning out as good as stablemates Vautour or Faugheen.
Kings Palace is a decent Ante Post bet for me after a string of impressive performances in the early Autumn, he has not been seen since early December but looks a real galloper who jumps superbly. I expect him to go very close.
Captain Cutter (see photo below) is a lovely horse who actually beat Kings Palace on his Bumper debut at Ascot, he seems best on soft ground & has operated under the radar with most pundits assuming the opinion he isn't really that good but he still managed to win The Grade 1 Challow last time. The ground is the worry to me but his sire Westerner sired Western Warhorse earlier in the week so it gives hope.
Champagne West is another big strapping son of Westerner who has improved massively winning a couple of handicaps well in his last 2 starts, it is a step up in class for him at this stage of his career. Cogry has been operating at a much lower level & this is a huge step up & for me is outclassed as is Madness Light, Masters Hill, Prince Siegfried, Regal Diamond, Rydon Pynes, Saint Roque & The Job Is Right.
Blakemount looks a really nice young horse who went down fighting last time to Urban Hymn who renews rivalry today on soft ground, being by Presenting Blakemount should enjoy the better ground whereas Urban Hymn has to show he can handle it. They are 2 very nice horses who should go on to win plenty of races of fences in the next few years.
Sausalito Sunrise was in behind both the 2 aforementioned horses last time & has to improve to figure.
Deputy Dan has steadily appeared on the scene most recently winning impressively at Warwick form which has worked out really well, on his first start this season he was beaten by Champagne West who has also improved so it depends who has improved more. Apache Jack was beaten by Briar Hill last time in a tactical affair on breeding he will appreciate the step up in trip & the better ground. Very Wood was 3rd behind Briar Hill / Apache Jack in that 3 runner race, the step up in trip will suit but I'm not sure the ground will be to his liking.
The last 2 runner I will mention are animals I really like Port Melon & Mosspark, Port Melon (see photo below) has not been seen since the November meeting when he travelled like a class horse before tiring late on, he was one of the best English pointers of last season & to me it is significant that Paul Nicholls is letting him take his chance, he is very much overpriced.
Mosspark (see photo below) has won all 3 of his starts in good style this season including a Listed event at Huntingdon last time after which his trainer Emma Lavelle was quoted as saying he would miss Chelenethan & go chasing, this is why I am not that much of a fan of her as a trainer as she constantly changes her mind.
On his last point to point start he was beaten by Annacotty so add his 3 unbeaten hurdles runs he clearly has a very good level of ability, he looks a real galloper who will make an excellent chaser, he has to show he can handle the better ground if he does he will surprise a few.
I have backed Kings Palace Ante Post but it is a really deep race & I will be backing both Port Melon 33/1 & Mosspark 20/1 who are overpriced.
The Blue Riband of steeplechasing is of course The Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup which is the feature on Day 4 & of the whole week.
Bob's Worth:
Last year's winner an out & out Cheltenham specialist with 5 wins from 5 starts including 3 straight wins at the last 3 Festivals Gold Cup, RSA Chase & Albert Bartlett. How can you really oppose him? He is honest, jumps well, stays all day & most all gets the job done, this is his manor.
Cloudy Too:
Improved Northern Chaser who ran well upped to Grade 1 last time (albeit a weak one) if he finishes 5th he will have run very well most likely 8th or 9th.
First Lieutenant:
Have always had a soft spot for this lad, convinced for years he is a future Gold Cup winner & finally he gets his chance on the ground he wants. One of the most consistent Top Class chasers you will see from 25 starts he has finished in the first 3 on 21 occasions including finishing 2nd in 6 Grade 1's. A very sound jumper who in a head to head against Bob's Worth the score is 3-0 to the English horse so he does have it to do but on his ground for the first time in ages & at a time of year when he runs his best races I feel he will give Bob's Worth a race with maybe just maybe he finally gets his day in the limelight.
Houblon Des Obeaux:
Improved chaser around Ascot this season but biting off more than he can chew here.
Katenko:
Had the world at his feet last season but never made last year's race after suffering colic & has not really returned in the same form.
Knockara Beau:
Finally gained a big Cheltenham win over hurdles when beating Big Buck's & At Fisher's Cross earlier in the year has since been well beat by Long Run who is nowhere near the same horse as he was so that puts Knockara chances into perspective.
Last Instalment:
Has come back from nearly 2 years off with 2 great runs finishing 3rd in a Grade 2 at Thurles before dominating The Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown in bad ground. He can handle better going but his connections have made no secret that his legs are made of glass & its asking a lot for him to continue in great form after such a long time off.
Lord Windermere:
Last year's RSA Chase winner who has been shocking all season admittedly in bad ground but you'd have still wanted to see more, I backed him for this after last year's RSA at 33's & the ground has come right for him so don't be surprised if he bounces right back to his best but even his best is not good enough to beat Bob's Worth or First Lieutenant.
Lyreen Legend:
2nd to Lord Windermere in last season's RSA, a decent chaser in his own right, he has two 5th placed finishes so far this season being well beaten both times so he probably lacks the real class of most of his rivals. His best form has come on soft & heavy ground so he has to show that decent ground is his bag.
On His Own:
Cracking handicapper who can easily hold his own in minor Graded company in the form of his life at present after connections have realised that Aintree is not his bag. A dual Thyestes Chase winner so the big field will hold no fears, a very sound jumper who can certainly run a bigger race than some expect.
Silviniaco Conti:
Have never ever warmed to this horse & just cannot have his jumping holding up or that he is really good enough seems an odd statement to say about a King George winner but I feel he was extremely flattered by his win, the ground was desperate, Cue Card went off far too fast, Al Ferof didn't stay, Mount Benbulben can't jump & the others didn't show up. Fehily rode Silviniaco brilliantly staying well back off the strong pace & picking up the pieces late on.
Teaforthree:
My main Grand National fancy, this is a good prep race to go for in between. A sound jumper who won the 4 miler at the Festival 2 years ago. Showed he is in form with a battling defeat to Restless Harry last time when giving the winner 8lbs. I can see him finishing 5th or 6th.
The Giant Bolster:
Loves Cheltenham & comes alive in The Gold Cup having finished 2nd & 4th in the last 2 renewals. Gained a deserved win in the Argento last time, will be in there at the death but will need at least 2 or 3 to underperform to win.
Triolo D'Alene:
Cannot see why this horse has been supported for a Gold Cup he just cannot be good enough to be involved if he runs 6th or 7th surely he will have done well. Won for me what has turned out to be a very weak Hennessy Gold Cup, is on the AIntree trail anyway but I couldn't see him getting involved in that either.
If something ridiculous was to happen & he were to win it would be like Synchronised's win 2 years ago another horse who should never have won a Gold Cup.
1) First Lieutenant
2) Bob's Worth
3) Lord Windermere or On His Own
The amateurs Gold Cup follows the main event, in previous years I have focused strongly on this division as I love point to pointing but this year due to the babies imminent arrival I have neglected it, my sources in the pointing world have told me that Harbour Court (see photo below) is a pretty decent young pointer who after unseating at Kelso in February just under a week later he came out at Cottenham to win a Men's Open comfortably. Trained by Alan Hill (Lawney's Husband) who knows what it takes to train a decent pointer, this horse won The Champion Novices Hunters Chase easily at Stratford last year.
The Martin Pipe Conditionals Handicap Hurdle is a race I won't concentrate to long on as I quite like The Skyfarmer (see photo below) who looks quite nicely weighted with the ground really in his favour.
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Obviously David Pipe has been desperately trying to win this race & he runs just the 1 this year in the shape of Vieux Lion Rouge who is unbeaten in 3 hurdles starts, this is a different kettle of fish however & will likely be overbet.
Don Poli is the Willie Mullins representative he won a very weak 3 mile Grade 3 hurdle last time & looks harshly treated. Leo Luna is the type of hurdler that Gary Moore does well with so a decent run would be no surprise.
The Skyfarmer 20/1 on this much better ground is a confident selection
The Final race of the week is The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual in which I am strong on the mercurial Mr Mole, I feel this type of fast paced 2 mile handicap is what this horse wants, he has lots of ability & has a reasonable mark. He may be given most to do by the owners other runner a similar profiled horse with only a handful of runs over fences & that is Ned Buntline who has always been well thought of, ground should be fine for him.
Old French Opera & Oiseau De Nuit are regulars in this race but at there age they should have too much on. Raya Star has proven decent over fences for all that he is very small he strikes me as the type who might not get round. Easter Meteor deserves a big win at Cheltenham but remains high in the handicap.
Savello has been disappointing overall & has a tough task. Eastlake is too high while Drumshambo will do well to better his 4th of last year. Tanks For That has tried 3 times to win this race the closest he got was 2nd 2 years ago he is higher today so I could not consider him similar comments apply to Astracad although trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies is still looking for a winner & this horse goes well here.
Next Sensation has been a lot of peoples lips for this race but not for me he has been operating at a lower level & this is a step up. Claret Cloak is a really imposing looking horse who has been on my radar for around 2 years now, he needs genuine good ground & I had him in mind for The Red Rum at Aintree not this, the hurly burly of this deep race I don't think will be to his liking both times he has been in races with over 20 runners he has been well beat.
I can't have Oscar Hill, His Excellency, Dare Me, Anquetta, Passage Vendome, Changing The Guard, Shooters Wood or Lucky Landing. Competitive Edge is another string to the McManus bow who looks to have been given a chance by the handicapper on ground that will suit while Lancetto could be one at a huge price to go very well, a decent jumper who needs a fast paced good ground 2 miles which he will get in this.
I am with Mr Mole 9/1 BetVictor / Paddy Power in the last race of the week with Ned Buntline, Competitive Edge & Lancetto to chase him home.
@fttfracing
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