Hello & welcome along to Day Three's blog, so far the #CheltenhamFestival has been outstanding.
On the punting point it was an average day yesterday with Red Sherlock, Don Cossack & Clondaw Kaempfer disappointing but thanks to Sire De Grugy it ended up not being disastrous, having backed him at big odds a few months ago he has been nothing short of magnificent all season, undervalued by the majority he proved just how good he was yesterday.
Day Three opens with The JLT Novices Chase Grade 1, still a relatively new race to the Festival with only 3 runnings having been staged & the Emerald Isle has won all 3 so it seems prudent to start the analysis with the raiders.
Chief among them is Felix Yonger (see photo below) a former Neptune runner up who has taken well to fences in Ireland the longer trip & good ground is what he needs so holds outstanding claims.
Stablemates Mozoltov & Djakadam also take their chances; Mozoltov has been winning minor Novice events at home & seems at home in testing conditions so his ability to handle this better surface is an issue. Djakadam (see photo below (pink colours)) is only 5 years old but is a huge horse who is extremely well regarded, he is expected to become one of the top staying chasers in the future, he jumps well & should be ok on the surface. His form is good as he accounted for Bright New Dawn last time (who has Won twice since) this may come a little to soon at this stage of his career but he will benefit hugely from the experience.
Sizing Gold represents Henry De Bromhead, he is another who is held in high regard, his chasing career has been limited to 2 starts with a comfortable win before failing to stay 3 miles behind Foxrock last time that form leaves him with something to find for all the better ground will suit.
The English attack is led by old foes Oscar Whisky, Wonderful Charm & Taquin De Seuil, this race surely represents Oscar Whisky's best ever chance of Festival glory however I just don't think he relishes this bigger fields as he is at his best bullying lesser opposition in small fields, I am also not a fan of his jumping. Wonderful Charm has been excellent over the larger obstacles so far, his last run was a defeat by half a length to Oscar Whisky when giving him 8lbs so he will easily turn the form around on Thursday, he has a big chance.
Taquin De Seuil (see photo below) has also had an excellent first season over fences who will appreciate this better surface & the stronger pace, he will also be in there pitching.
Double Ross has been making hay over the desperately wet winter winning Cheltenham Handicap after Cheltenham Handicap but he is not up to this class especially on this ground. Vukovar came with a big reputation from France having beaten Dell' Arca, he was beaten by the mercurial Mr Mole on his UK debut before sluicing up in an uncompetitive Newbury Novice, his lack of experience worries me as does the ground.
Off The Ground has won his last 2 starts in lesser company, this is a big step up as it is for Captain Ocana who has no hope & Uxizandre who before his disappointing showing at Warwick had been impressive in 2 chase starts at Plumpton, I can forgive his Warwick defeat as he had a long time off so would have been ring rusty, he is a nice horse who could surprise a few on Thursday.
Really good race which you can make cases for nearly all the field, it will be hard to keep Felix Yonger, Wonderful Charm & Taquin De Seuil out of the frame.
I expect Djakadam to go well as I do Uxizandre but I can't see a bet.
The Pertemps Final looks the hardest race of the week for me, I had a long term fancy for the race but he ended up chasing so I have not really focused on it however Fingal Bay does appear to hold outstanding claims on his win last time & his back class.
Not in his favour though is that only 2 horses in the last 10 years have won this carrying more than 11 stone with the majority of winners carrying between 10-0 & 10-11, with the age group ranging between 8 - 9. Jonjo O'Neill & David Pipe are trainers to follow.
This race is different than most years though as it looks a higher quality renewal with only 1 horse carrying less than 11 stone so on revised terms I would look for horses carrying between 11-8 - 11-0.
Southfield Theatre appears harshly treated but ground is in his favour. Quartz De Thaix has a lot on his plate. Trustan Times is interesting as he is only 2lbs above his last winning mark & is built to carry weight. Jetson was 3rd last year off 4lbs lower & loves these big fields. Seefood another Irish raider has not won since his Novice days but is very consistent, this race has been the plan & he looks one to note.
Mickie (see photo below) is a admirable mare who has been in fantastic form this year & she cannot be discounted as she will keep fighting to the end.
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Grand Vision was 3rd in the ill fated Brindisi Breeze's Albert Bartlett 2 years ago, he has only had 3 runs since & seems to have been brought along with this race in mind. On The Bridge has not been seen since finishing 4th in the October qualifier for this race behind Trackmate who unfortunately has not made it, ground is right for On The Bridge so I anticipate a bold run. Pineau De Re has been a good horse & won a Veterans chase last time, this is tougher. Tony McCoy is on If In Doubt who was 2nd to Fingal Bay last time before that he had been 2nd in the Lanzarote so his form is strong, i just don't know about the ground for him. Vics Canvas qualified courtesy of an 8th placed finish in a qualifier in December, he has little chance of bettering that in the Final. Uncle Jimmy has not been since January & his young rider takes off a valuable 7lbs which gives a very nice weight however I am doubtful on the ground again. Top Wood battled on well in desperate conditions last time & is a Pipe horse in form at the right time, ground is of no concern.
Mister Dillon has a nice weight & what looks a very good chance. Lie Forrit is one of those horses who wears his heart on his sleeve & he won't give up without a fight, could go well at a price. Pateese has been in good form this season, he likes these big field handicaps & has been given a chance by the handicapper & with an 7lbs coming off his back he must go well. First Fandango, Cross Kennon (been given a chance but out of form) & Utopie Des Bordes look likely to struggle. Crowning Jewel has a lovely weight he is yet another with a chance as is So Fine who has been waiting for the better ground. Josie's Orders has scraped in & is your typical improver from his stable, ground should be fine. Broadway Buffalo appears to well fancied but has done little for me.
Hellishly competitive as you'd expect I might chance Pateese 33/1 E/W Skybet 5 places at big odds.
The much maligned Ryanair Chase one of the big championship races is up next, I have to say I'm a fan of this race always have been & don't see why it gets such a bad press.
8, 9 & 10 year olds are the age to watch in this since its inception with Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls & Jonjo O'Neill (dual winner Alberta's Run) having trained 2 winners each.
Al Ferof heads them, dropping down in trip on better ground is what he wants, he needs to have recovered from a 2 tough races in desperate ground at Newbury & Kempton.
Benefficient (see photo below) has been my long term fancy since he won last year's JLT, he has always been underrated but to me jumps really well & is a genuine Grade 1 horse.
Boston Bob is interesting dropping in trip but he needs to jump better.
Cantlow can't win a Grade 1 surely after falling on the first day. Dynaste is a enigma, he needs to bounce back after a shocking run in The King George if he does he has chances but he is held by Benefficient.
Hidden Cyclone (see photo below) is a big powerful brute who has long promised a win in a top race, he is feared.
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Hunt Ball can't win neither can Kauto Stone.
Medermit is of slight interest at a huge price after an encouraging first run after a long time off, he was 3rd in this 2 years ago only losing out by a length, I think he may give Benefficient most to do. Menorah loves Cheltenham & could easily pop up but I would be surprised. Rajdhani Express has not been since disappointing in the Paddy Power in November, a Festival winner last year he does have to improve but that would not be the biggest surprise if he were to. Rathlin completes the lineup, he is outclassed on all known form.
Really good race in which I have fancied Benefficient for a long time & I think he can gain another Cheltenham win from Medermit & Rajdhani Express.
The Big race on Day Three is The Ladbrokes World Hurdle, it is being billed as a match between the unbeaten mare
Annie Power V the returning champion Big Buck's.
On the punting point it was an average day yesterday with Red Sherlock, Don Cossack & Clondaw Kaempfer disappointing but thanks to Sire De Grugy it ended up not being disastrous, having backed him at big odds a few months ago he has been nothing short of magnificent all season, undervalued by the majority he proved just how good he was yesterday.
Day Three opens with The JLT Novices Chase Grade 1, still a relatively new race to the Festival with only 3 runnings having been staged & the Emerald Isle has won all 3 so it seems prudent to start the analysis with the raiders.
Chief among them is Felix Yonger (see photo below) a former Neptune runner up who has taken well to fences in Ireland the longer trip & good ground is what he needs so holds outstanding claims.
Stablemates Mozoltov & Djakadam also take their chances; Mozoltov has been winning minor Novice events at home & seems at home in testing conditions so his ability to handle this better surface is an issue. Djakadam (see photo below (pink colours)) is only 5 years old but is a huge horse who is extremely well regarded, he is expected to become one of the top staying chasers in the future, he jumps well & should be ok on the surface. His form is good as he accounted for Bright New Dawn last time (who has Won twice since) this may come a little to soon at this stage of his career but he will benefit hugely from the experience.
Sizing Gold represents Henry De Bromhead, he is another who is held in high regard, his chasing career has been limited to 2 starts with a comfortable win before failing to stay 3 miles behind Foxrock last time that form leaves him with something to find for all the better ground will suit.
The English attack is led by old foes Oscar Whisky, Wonderful Charm & Taquin De Seuil, this race surely represents Oscar Whisky's best ever chance of Festival glory however I just don't think he relishes this bigger fields as he is at his best bullying lesser opposition in small fields, I am also not a fan of his jumping. Wonderful Charm has been excellent over the larger obstacles so far, his last run was a defeat by half a length to Oscar Whisky when giving him 8lbs so he will easily turn the form around on Thursday, he has a big chance.
Taquin De Seuil (see photo below) has also had an excellent first season over fences who will appreciate this better surface & the stronger pace, he will also be in there pitching.
Double Ross has been making hay over the desperately wet winter winning Cheltenham Handicap after Cheltenham Handicap but he is not up to this class especially on this ground. Vukovar came with a big reputation from France having beaten Dell' Arca, he was beaten by the mercurial Mr Mole on his UK debut before sluicing up in an uncompetitive Newbury Novice, his lack of experience worries me as does the ground.
Off The Ground has won his last 2 starts in lesser company, this is a big step up as it is for Captain Ocana who has no hope & Uxizandre who before his disappointing showing at Warwick had been impressive in 2 chase starts at Plumpton, I can forgive his Warwick defeat as he had a long time off so would have been ring rusty, he is a nice horse who could surprise a few on Thursday.
Really good race which you can make cases for nearly all the field, it will be hard to keep Felix Yonger, Wonderful Charm & Taquin De Seuil out of the frame.
I expect Djakadam to go well as I do Uxizandre but I can't see a bet.
The Pertemps Final looks the hardest race of the week for me, I had a long term fancy for the race but he ended up chasing so I have not really focused on it however Fingal Bay does appear to hold outstanding claims on his win last time & his back class.
Not in his favour though is that only 2 horses in the last 10 years have won this carrying more than 11 stone with the majority of winners carrying between 10-0 & 10-11, with the age group ranging between 8 - 9. Jonjo O'Neill & David Pipe are trainers to follow.
This race is different than most years though as it looks a higher quality renewal with only 1 horse carrying less than 11 stone so on revised terms I would look for horses carrying between 11-8 - 11-0.
Southfield Theatre appears harshly treated but ground is in his favour. Quartz De Thaix has a lot on his plate. Trustan Times is interesting as he is only 2lbs above his last winning mark & is built to carry weight. Jetson was 3rd last year off 4lbs lower & loves these big fields. Seefood another Irish raider has not won since his Novice days but is very consistent, this race has been the plan & he looks one to note.
Mickie (see photo below) is a admirable mare who has been in fantastic form this year & she cannot be discounted as she will keep fighting to the end.
Grand Vision was 3rd in the ill fated Brindisi Breeze's Albert Bartlett 2 years ago, he has only had 3 runs since & seems to have been brought along with this race in mind. On The Bridge has not been seen since finishing 4th in the October qualifier for this race behind Trackmate who unfortunately has not made it, ground is right for On The Bridge so I anticipate a bold run. Pineau De Re has been a good horse & won a Veterans chase last time, this is tougher. Tony McCoy is on If In Doubt who was 2nd to Fingal Bay last time before that he had been 2nd in the Lanzarote so his form is strong, i just don't know about the ground for him. Vics Canvas qualified courtesy of an 8th placed finish in a qualifier in December, he has little chance of bettering that in the Final. Uncle Jimmy has not been since January & his young rider takes off a valuable 7lbs which gives a very nice weight however I am doubtful on the ground again. Top Wood battled on well in desperate conditions last time & is a Pipe horse in form at the right time, ground is of no concern.
Mister Dillon has a nice weight & what looks a very good chance. Lie Forrit is one of those horses who wears his heart on his sleeve & he won't give up without a fight, could go well at a price. Pateese has been in good form this season, he likes these big field handicaps & has been given a chance by the handicapper & with an 7lbs coming off his back he must go well. First Fandango, Cross Kennon (been given a chance but out of form) & Utopie Des Bordes look likely to struggle. Crowning Jewel has a lovely weight he is yet another with a chance as is So Fine who has been waiting for the better ground. Josie's Orders has scraped in & is your typical improver from his stable, ground should be fine. Broadway Buffalo appears to well fancied but has done little for me.
Hellishly competitive as you'd expect I might chance Pateese 33/1 E/W Skybet 5 places at big odds.
The much maligned Ryanair Chase one of the big championship races is up next, I have to say I'm a fan of this race always have been & don't see why it gets such a bad press.
8, 9 & 10 year olds are the age to watch in this since its inception with Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls & Jonjo O'Neill (dual winner Alberta's Run) having trained 2 winners each.
Al Ferof heads them, dropping down in trip on better ground is what he wants, he needs to have recovered from a 2 tough races in desperate ground at Newbury & Kempton.
Benefficient (see photo below) has been my long term fancy since he won last year's JLT, he has always been underrated but to me jumps really well & is a genuine Grade 1 horse.
Boston Bob is interesting dropping in trip but he needs to jump better.
Cantlow can't win a Grade 1 surely after falling on the first day. Dynaste is a enigma, he needs to bounce back after a shocking run in The King George if he does he has chances but he is held by Benefficient.
Hidden Cyclone (see photo below) is a big powerful brute who has long promised a win in a top race, he is feared.
Hunt Ball can't win neither can Kauto Stone.
Medermit is of slight interest at a huge price after an encouraging first run after a long time off, he was 3rd in this 2 years ago only losing out by a length, I think he may give Benefficient most to do. Menorah loves Cheltenham & could easily pop up but I would be surprised. Rajdhani Express has not been since disappointing in the Paddy Power in November, a Festival winner last year he does have to improve but that would not be the biggest surprise if he were to. Rathlin completes the lineup, he is outclassed on all known form.
Really good race in which I have fancied Benefficient for a long time & I think he can gain another Cheltenham win from Medermit & Rajdhani Express.
The Big race on Day Three is The Ladbrokes World Hurdle, it is being billed as a match between the unbeaten mare
Annie Power V the returning champion Big Buck's.
Starting with Annie Power
-who has barely been off the bridle in her 10 wins, this is by far her biggest test to date over a trip she has yet to attempt.
On breeding there is no doubt for me that she will stay as her sire Shirocco stayed well & he is from a stout German family, her Dam is Anno Luce who I have been lucky enough to see in the field on my father's stud farm a good few years ago, she is a big mare who stayed really well on the Flat so Annie Power should stay comfortably, the ground should not inconvenience her.
Its just whether she is classy enough as she has only really beaten Zarkander who is a decent horse but nowhere near his illustrious stablemates class, I also believe that Annie Power's rating is inflated considering what she has beaten to me she rates similar to the last Irish mare to take on Big Buck's Voler La Vedette. The major factor in Annie Power's favour is the weight concession she receives from all her rivals which is a huge help.
-who has barely been off the bridle in her 10 wins, this is by far her biggest test to date over a trip she has yet to attempt.
On breeding there is no doubt for me that she will stay as her sire Shirocco stayed well & he is from a stout German family, her Dam is Anno Luce who I have been lucky enough to see in the field on my father's stud farm a good few years ago, she is a big mare who stayed really well on the Flat so Annie Power should stay comfortably, the ground should not inconvenience her.
Its just whether she is classy enough as she has only really beaten Zarkander who is a decent horse but nowhere near his illustrious stablemates class, I also believe that Annie Power's rating is inflated considering what she has beaten to me she rates similar to the last Irish mare to take on Big Buck's Voler La Vedette. The major factor in Annie Power's favour is the weight concession she receives from all her rivals which is a huge help.
Big Buck's -
ran a fantastic race on his return from a year off booted into the race to test his fitness & to see if he retained his ability which he clearly did yes he was nowhere near his best in finishing 3rd that day but it was encouraging.
This is his big target trying to reclaim his title & win a 5th World Hurdle, I believe he can do it defeating another Irish mare like he did when he beat Voler La Vedette in 2012.
At Fishers Cross
- has not gone on from his Novice campaign & doesn't jump well enough for me, some think his 2nd place last time was a step in the right direction but not for me as he was still beaten by Knockara Beau.
Celestial Halo
- has been a fabulous horse over the years but it is asking a lot of him to reproduce last year's heroics.
Mala Beach
-is an improving young stayer but has not yet shown he can cope with this.
Medinas
-is a horse I have a lot of time for, he has been kept fresh for this & I expect a massive run at insulting odds, I'm not saying he can win but I expect him to be placed.
More Of That
- has been a big improver in the early part of the season, his jumping in this company could let him down though.
Reve De Sivola
- needs softer ground & can't beat the top 2 for me on all known form.
Rule The World -
is a lovely young horse who should make a fine chaser, he might not just be quite up to this over hurdles.
Salubrious -
has improved into a decent stayer this season, better ground will help but as he was beaten by Reve De Sivola & More Of That 2 horses that I don't think have realistic chances then I don't think he has either.
Zarkander -
is a decent horse but has had his limitations exposed & I can't see him figuring.
I think the former Champion can regain his crown so its:
1) Big Buck's
2) Medinas
3) Annie Power
The Byrne Group Plate is another handicap of Day Three with only 2 horses winning carrying more than 11 stone in the last 10 years, the band to concentrate on is between 10-0 - 10-10 with any age between 6 & 11 winning in recent years. Venetia Williams has a great record with 3 winners with Nicky Henderson & David Pipe saddling 2 each.
Dear old Champion Court tries again at the Festival, he has the help of Ryan Hatch's 7lb claim but will always find 1 too good for him. John's Spirit the runaway Paddy Power winner has 9lbs more now but will surely have been primed for this.
Colour Squadron has yet to win over fences but has some top handicap form to his name, everything is in place for another big run but you just wonder whether he'll find something to beat him.
Tap Night has been flagged up by many in the build up as a potential Festival winner, not for me though I don't think he jumps well enough similar comments apply to Third Intention who also has an awkward head carriage. Ballynagour is not seen very often & was well backed for this & the Paddy Power he disappointed in both, he will no doubt be again well backed & could pop up. Tatenan is a horse I've never fathomed so I don't see the point trying to now.
Bless The Wings (see photo below) has one of these in him back at this trip on better ground he must have a decent chance.
Last year's winner Carrickboy has shown nothing all season until last time so a repeat could well be on the cards. Benny's Mist a stablemate of Carrickboy also has to be considered, he has improved all season he just needs to show he can handle good ground. Sraid Padraig looks potentially well handicapped judged on his recent Irish win, he has been kept fresh for this & no doubt will be one of the gambles of the day. King Edmund & Wetak have work to do.
Nadiya De La Vega is a good mare who likes Cheltenham & crucially she is visored for the first time so a good run could be forthcoming. Firth Of Clyde has been in good form North of the border but this is a step up. Shangani won a very weak race for the Grade at Newbury last time, that will have done him the world of good & he is a player from his low weight. Mr Cracker is not the horse he once was & neither is Tartak.
Georgio Quercus has been 9th & 14th in this race in the last 2 years, he is even lower on Thursday so I cannot see why he could be considered. Act Of Kalanisi is a useful horse in lower grades but is not up to this whereas Sew On Target has very useful Cheltenham form, is on an attractive mark & will get the strongly run race he requires, chances.
Gallox Bridge likes the ground & is yet another who could go well from down the bottom of the weights. Highway Code & Christopher Wren have a lot on from out of the weights.
Tough race as you'd expect but I have been watching Bless The Wings 33/1 E/W Skybet 5 places for a while now & think everything is in place for a big run. Dangers include Carrickboy, Nadiya De La Vega, Colour Squadron & Sew On Target.
The last race on Day Three is The Kim Muir in which Indian Castle has been a strong favourite ever since his impressive Handicap win at Cheltenham on his last start, he is very much a horse I like & the 3 miles will suit him perfectly. Derek O'Connor is a top booking & he will be hard to keep out of the frame.
However I have a long term fancy who has actually made the race I originally had in mind for him when I entered him on my Tracker & that is Balnaslow from the Willie Mullins camp, the ground & trip are perfect for this bold jumping son of Presenting who ran a corker on bad ground when 4th in the Thyestes Chase in late January.
Our Father has first time blinkers which could help & so should this better ground, he is a good horse when on song. Cause Of Causes has been talked up as well in recent weeks, I just can't see it though, a very decent handicap hurdler he has just had too many runs over fences without winning for me. Spring Heeled has the services of Robbie McNamara & it would be fitting if he could get a win at this year's Festival after the horrible injury sustained by JT in this race last year.
Last year's winner Same Difference attempts to repeat which will be hard but the ground is now his favour & the Twiston-Davies will be hungry for a winner. Of the others the 2 Jonjo runners need mentioning Twirling Magnet & Lost Glory both however have work to do. There's No Panic on a sound surface has chances under the excellent Will Biddick while Buddy Bolero who will surely be popular under Katie Walsh for me looks set to struggle on the good ground. Old boys Roberto Goldback & Tranquil Sea top the weights, both have excellent jockeys onboard so that allows them a fighting chance although I can't really see either of them being involved.
I have had Balnaslow 10/1 Betfred / Sportingbet earmarked for this race for a good few months so now he has been confirmed I will stick with him.
- has not gone on from his Novice campaign & doesn't jump well enough for me, some think his 2nd place last time was a step in the right direction but not for me as he was still beaten by Knockara Beau.
Celestial Halo
- has been a fabulous horse over the years but it is asking a lot of him to reproduce last year's heroics.
Mala Beach
-is an improving young stayer but has not yet shown he can cope with this.
Medinas
-is a horse I have a lot of time for, he has been kept fresh for this & I expect a massive run at insulting odds, I'm not saying he can win but I expect him to be placed.
More Of That
- has been a big improver in the early part of the season, his jumping in this company could let him down though.
Reve De Sivola
- needs softer ground & can't beat the top 2 for me on all known form.
Rule The World -
is a lovely young horse who should make a fine chaser, he might not just be quite up to this over hurdles.
Salubrious -
has improved into a decent stayer this season, better ground will help but as he was beaten by Reve De Sivola & More Of That 2 horses that I don't think have realistic chances then I don't think he has either.
Zarkander -
is a decent horse but has had his limitations exposed & I can't see him figuring.
I think the former Champion can regain his crown so its:
1) Big Buck's
2) Medinas
3) Annie Power
The Byrne Group Plate is another handicap of Day Three with only 2 horses winning carrying more than 11 stone in the last 10 years, the band to concentrate on is between 10-0 - 10-10 with any age between 6 & 11 winning in recent years. Venetia Williams has a great record with 3 winners with Nicky Henderson & David Pipe saddling 2 each.
Dear old Champion Court tries again at the Festival, he has the help of Ryan Hatch's 7lb claim but will always find 1 too good for him. John's Spirit the runaway Paddy Power winner has 9lbs more now but will surely have been primed for this.
Colour Squadron has yet to win over fences but has some top handicap form to his name, everything is in place for another big run but you just wonder whether he'll find something to beat him.
Tap Night has been flagged up by many in the build up as a potential Festival winner, not for me though I don't think he jumps well enough similar comments apply to Third Intention who also has an awkward head carriage. Ballynagour is not seen very often & was well backed for this & the Paddy Power he disappointed in both, he will no doubt be again well backed & could pop up. Tatenan is a horse I've never fathomed so I don't see the point trying to now.
Bless The Wings (see photo below) has one of these in him back at this trip on better ground he must have a decent chance.
Last year's winner Carrickboy has shown nothing all season until last time so a repeat could well be on the cards. Benny's Mist a stablemate of Carrickboy also has to be considered, he has improved all season he just needs to show he can handle good ground. Sraid Padraig looks potentially well handicapped judged on his recent Irish win, he has been kept fresh for this & no doubt will be one of the gambles of the day. King Edmund & Wetak have work to do.
Nadiya De La Vega is a good mare who likes Cheltenham & crucially she is visored for the first time so a good run could be forthcoming. Firth Of Clyde has been in good form North of the border but this is a step up. Shangani won a very weak race for the Grade at Newbury last time, that will have done him the world of good & he is a player from his low weight. Mr Cracker is not the horse he once was & neither is Tartak.
Georgio Quercus has been 9th & 14th in this race in the last 2 years, he is even lower on Thursday so I cannot see why he could be considered. Act Of Kalanisi is a useful horse in lower grades but is not up to this whereas Sew On Target has very useful Cheltenham form, is on an attractive mark & will get the strongly run race he requires, chances.
Gallox Bridge likes the ground & is yet another who could go well from down the bottom of the weights. Highway Code & Christopher Wren have a lot on from out of the weights.
Tough race as you'd expect but I have been watching Bless The Wings 33/1 E/W Skybet 5 places for a while now & think everything is in place for a big run. Dangers include Carrickboy, Nadiya De La Vega, Colour Squadron & Sew On Target.
The last race on Day Three is The Kim Muir in which Indian Castle has been a strong favourite ever since his impressive Handicap win at Cheltenham on his last start, he is very much a horse I like & the 3 miles will suit him perfectly. Derek O'Connor is a top booking & he will be hard to keep out of the frame.
However I have a long term fancy who has actually made the race I originally had in mind for him when I entered him on my Tracker & that is Balnaslow from the Willie Mullins camp, the ground & trip are perfect for this bold jumping son of Presenting who ran a corker on bad ground when 4th in the Thyestes Chase in late January.
Our Father has first time blinkers which could help & so should this better ground, he is a good horse when on song. Cause Of Causes has been talked up as well in recent weeks, I just can't see it though, a very decent handicap hurdler he has just had too many runs over fences without winning for me. Spring Heeled has the services of Robbie McNamara & it would be fitting if he could get a win at this year's Festival after the horrible injury sustained by JT in this race last year.
Last year's winner Same Difference attempts to repeat which will be hard but the ground is now his favour & the Twiston-Davies will be hungry for a winner. Of the others the 2 Jonjo runners need mentioning Twirling Magnet & Lost Glory both however have work to do. There's No Panic on a sound surface has chances under the excellent Will Biddick while Buddy Bolero who will surely be popular under Katie Walsh for me looks set to struggle on the good ground. Old boys Roberto Goldback & Tranquil Sea top the weights, both have excellent jockeys onboard so that allows them a fighting chance although I can't really see either of them being involved.
I have had Balnaslow 10/1 Betfred / Sportingbet earmarked for this race for a good few months so now he has been confirmed I will stick with him.
@fttfracing
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