Tuesday 11 March 2014

Cheltenham Festival Day Two

Hello & welcome along to my blog for Day Two of the #CheltenhamFestival there is still no baby movement at this end so I am able to get stuck into another excellent day's racing. 
Yesterday was one of those days that makes me love Horse Racing so much I have been the staunchest advocate of Jezki's ability for the last 2 years & after his 3rd in last year's Supreme I was convinced he would win a Champion Hurdle, I backed him every month since then at prices varying from 16/1, 14/1 & most recently topped up at 10/1 so personally it was a fantastic vindication for my faith in the horse, the debates my belief has caused have been extremely interesting which is what makes this sport so special as everyone has an opinion. 


The card opens with The Neptune Novices Hurdle which has attracted a field of 16 headed by the much vaunted Faugheen (see photo below) for Willie Mullins, this horse has been favourite since last year & is unbeaten in 5 starts barely being extended to win any of them, he has only beaten 2 horses of note Josses Hill (Bumper) & recent Listed Hurdle winner Empire Of Dirt. He has been kept away from the major races so for me it feels more like home reputation than form is dominating peoples thoughts, Mullins has had 2 so called good things beaten in this race recently (Pont Alexandre & So Young).


Much more of a likely winner in my book is Red Sherlock (see photo below) who is also an unbeaten contender the winner of 6 straight races at tracks varying from the stiff Towcester, the flat Southwell & he has twice won around Cheltenham's undulations. He is also versatile as regards ground having won twice on Good / Soft & Heavy including his most latest win when showing battling qualities to beat Faugheen's stablemate Rathvinden in the trial for this race back in January, everything about Red Sherlock screams class & he is a confident selection.


Royal Boy is far too short for me, he won the Tolworth but that was a surprise & he had been easily brushed aside in the same race last season, I just can't have suddenly being good enough. Rathvinden has to turn form around with Red Sherlock which is of course possible but as most Heron Island's prefer softer ground I wonder if the better ground will be what he wants. 
Lieutenant Colonel has been well backed in the last few weeks, he has been consistent & is improving at just the right time, as a Kayf Tara the better ground should be to his liking, he is a danger as is Ballyalton who up until disappointing on shocking ground at Cheltenham's New Year's Day meeting when carrying a double penalty was probably the best Novice around, the better ground will suit & I expect him to be there at the finish.
Killala Quay won a weak Grade 2 at Sandown in early December & has it all to do tomorrow as does Fennell Bay who has been impressive in minor company but this is a big step up for the ex Flat horse who was none too consistent on the level. 
Knock House is decent at a lower level but is out of his depth here as are Cole Harden who needs softer ground, Shanahan's Turn who is inexperienced, Creepy outclassed, Twelves Roses who would have had a better chance in a handicap & Midnight Thunder is hopelessly outclassed. 
Cup Final has been readily beaten over 2 miles by Irving in his last 2 starts but he ran on encouragingly last time suggesting the step up in trip would be in his favour, he is out of the fantastic mare Asian Maze so the further he goes the better & being by Presenting the better ground will suit, he is a very lively outsider while stablemate Cocktails At Dawn is also interesting, he has a big reputation but hasn't yet made the track much with only 3 runs to his name, his run behind Ballyalton in December was encouraging & this better ground looks to be in his favour so he may well run a nice race in behind for a 5th or 6th.

An excellent renewal in which I have already backed Red Sherlock at bigger odds so I am happy to stick with this lovely horse, I think Faugheen will be beaten & unplaced so that leaves Lieutenant Colonel & Ballyalton to chase him home with Cup Final shocking a few by making a place.

The Novices Gold Cup has attracted a strong 15 runner line up & it looks very competitive with the Irish holding a strong hand. I will start with one of my naps of the meeting in the shape of Don Cossack (see photo below), he has always had a massive reputation & while his hurdling career went somewhat downhill after falling in a Grade 1 when a strong 8/15f his chasing career has been very decent with 2 good wins including the Grade 1 Drinmore in early December, it was only 8 days later when he turned out again & was beaten behind Ballycasey in a tactical affair. 


His other defeat was only by half a length to Morning Assembly so he is right in the mix on form, I have thought for a long time that better ground over 3 miles is what he wants & he is a strong selection for me.
Ballycasey has done little wrong in his career so far but as with all Willie Mullins is overbet, I feel he may just lack the experience of others in this event. Morning Assembly has operated under the radar for all of his career, he seems to be an early season or spring horse so he is feared. Carlingford Lough is not your traditional RSA contender having already plied his trade in top handicaps with success including this year's Galway Plate, he is a very hardy horse who has been on the go for a long time. 
Annacotty (see photo below) has done his connections proud but lets be honest it was a very weak Feltham that he won, he backed it up with a great run under top weight in a handicap last time but faces much tougher opposition tomorrow.


Black Thunder has progressed over fences beating Shotgun Paddy twice but he was readily disposed of by another of today's rival's Corrin Wood at Warwick last time, Corrin Wood himself is unbeaten over fences, all his wins hurdles & fences have come in small fields so he will do well to dominate this lot, the other negative is the loss of regular pilot Jason Maguire who knows the horse so well.
Gevrey Chambertain cannot be on anyones radar after going out like a light at Ascot last time exactly like his brother Grands Cru has been doing for ages now. Just A Par was a major disappointment in the Feltham & was supposed to be going for the 4 miler on the first day so I couldn't fancy him in this. 
Le Bec made a very good start to his chasing career, he has missed the winter due to the bad ground & returns fresh, he must go well. Many Clouds is a decent horse but has is probably just below the best & would need a good few of his rivals to run below par to get involved. 
O'Faolain's Boy bounced back to from with a good win in The Reynoldstown at Ascot last time, his jumping is not wonderful so I would be concerned on that score. 
Samingarry is outclassed while Sam Winner who seems like he has been around forever has been good so far over the larger obstacles beating Le Bec in December & then being beaten by Smad Place on his latest start, I do wonder if he is as classy as some of his opponents though, his Newbury conquer Smad Place completes the lineup, a very smart staying hurdler he has taken well to fences on his last 2 starts & he looks the best of the home defence.

A confident NAP selection on Don Cossack 12/1 Generally available with Smad Place & Morning Assembly to follow him home.

Having backed Medinas to win last year's Coral Cup at silly odds of 33/1 I am hoping to follow up this year with Clondaw Kaempfer (see photo below) who I have backed over the last few weeks at big odds, it is a blow that Jason Maguire is injured but from what I've seen this horse takes less knowing than Corrin Wood. He has been on my radar for this race all season & has been kept fresh since 2 ordinary runs in November & December, I firmly believe he wants this better ground & his slick jumping is a huge asset in a field of this size, last year he was one of the best jumpers of a hurdle I had seen since Istabraq & the world was at his feet however he was pulled up in The Challow then had a spell on the sidelines. His mark is very inviting & I just think he is the best horse in the race.


Old Dunguib gets his chance at the age of 11 to shine at a Festival but this a tough ask from top weight, Whisper has been consistent all season & has paid for that in the weights as has Samategal (see photo below)


Meister Eckhart is back hurdling after not taking to chasing, he ran well in The National Spirit last time so from 2lbs higher than last year's 2nd he is respected.
Oscars Well was formerly a classy hurdler but has been below form for a long time now but as he is now trained by Tony Martin a much better effort would be no surprise. Cotton Mill has flattered to deceive on many occasions & looks to high for me as does Magnifique Etoile. Far West was in the process of running an excellent race in The Betfair before falling, he is a decent animal who always runs his heart out. 
Get Me Out Of Here is another who looks like he has been primed for this, he has never won at the Festival but has been 2nd in a Coral Cup (6lbs lower tomorrow), 2nd in a County & 2nd in a Supreme Novices, I'm sure he will be in there at the death but will find 1 or 2 too good. Clerk's Choice is a good horse who can pop up & run well in these big handicaps so is respected. Sadler's Risk has never quite fulfilled his potential, Smashing didn't seem to enjoy the big field experience at Newbury last time, Edgardo Sol was 2nd in a County 2 years ago but has been out of form. 
Timesremembered was a useful early season Novice but whether he's ready for this kind of race is open to debate. Waaheb has never really fulfilled his potential but as a result has got in on a decent mark so could easily show up well in this. Its not the race I would have chosen for Dell' Arca but he has been very consistent since coming to this country & still looks fairly treated. Ifandbutwhynot has the services of Bryan Cooper which is significant & he is feasibly treated so I would rate him a danger. 
I can't have Foxcub, Caluclated Risk, Son Of Flicka, Indevan, Yesyoucan, Noble Prince, Vendor or Party Rock. Kayliff Aramis would need really soft ground to be in with a chance & Bayan did all his winning in the summer so the better ground has come for him, he looks another to have been laid out for this.

Sticking my neck out but I really like Clondaw Kaempfer 12/1 Coral / Betbright in this with any from Ifandbutwhynot, Get Me Out Of Here, Meister Eckhart, Far West & Clerk's Choice to battle it out for places.

The big race on Day Two is The Queen Mother Champion Chase which may have lost some of its lustre with the absent Sprinter Sacre but we still have a horse who stands out over his rivals:

Arvika Legionnaire:
Decent but not Top Class, his jumping is sometimes suspect.

Baily Green: 
Excelled in last season's Arkle & sure to have been primed for this, place contender.  

Captain Conan: 
Lived in the shadow of his more illustrious stablemate, has his chance in the sun over the trip that is his best.

Hinterland: 
Second season Novice who has been in great form but not up to this.

Kid Cassidy:
Handicapper who is not in the class of his rivals.

Module:
Nice horse but again below the best.

Sire De Grugy:
Had a fabulous season the best 2 mile chaser around, people forget he has won 2 Celebration Chases on Good ground beating most of these hollow. The one to beat.


Sizing Europe:
Former Champion, excellent horse but he is 12 now & won't have the pace of these.

Somersby:
Jumping can let him down but sure to have been primed for this, has his ground & is the one who can chase Sire De Grugy home.


Special Tiara:
Had his day in the sun at Aintree last year, needs this ground & is an interesting contender has a verdict over Sire De Grugy but that was when he was returning from a break.
Work to do.

Wishfull Thinking:
The name says it all, grand old horse but up against it in this.

1) Sire De Grugy
2) Somersby
3) Baily Green 

I've not bet in the Cross Country since old Spotthedifference & that won't be changing tomorrow. Go have a beer for 30 mins instead.

The Fred Winter for Juveniles is normally a bloody hard race but I have been taking more interest in Juvenile Hurdlers this season so hopefully I have a better idea. I backed Dawalan (see photo below) at 33's after his Newbury debut 4th, he looked a horse of potential & a winner next time, he did indeed oblige twice, this race looks right up his street & you won't see many better bred than him. 


The top weights tend to struggle in this so Noble Inn, Gerdago & Le Fin Bois (making his UK Debut) are scrubbed off. Ivan Grozny was put in his place in a Triumph trial last time & the changing ground will not be in his favour. Arzembury Premier looks harshly handicapped as does Solar Impulse & Ballglasheen. 
As I have benefitted from some NRNB action I can't leave Baradari (see photo below) unbacked, his finished 6th on his UK debut to Dawalan, Activial & Calipto, he then went on to win next time then on his last start ran a huge race under a big weight at Huntingdon.


Clarcam has had Fred Winter written all over all season so he is player for his astute trainer. Cadoudoff needs to improve to get involved as does Goodwood Mirage who's jumping has been awful, Katgary makes his UK debut in this & could be anything but its a big ask on his first start for a while. Hawk High was a useful Flat handicapper who has taken well to hurdles, better ground will help but he might just be a few lbs too high. Astre De La Cour won well in a very weak race at Ascot latest, this is quite a step up but he showed a likeable attitude so that will stand him in good stead. 
Violet Dancer has shown up well in all his runs & the better ground will help so at a big price he has a chance. Handiwork is outclassed as is Azza who was beaten by Astre De La Cour in a bumper in the French provinces. Vandross & Keltus have work to do while Certification from a very handy weight could be in the shake up. 
Orgiglo Bay is a forgotten Irish raider who's early season Juvenile form is good back on this better ground from a very low weight a decent run would not be a surprise. Raven's Tower & Akdam are out of their depth.

I have already backed Dawalan at big odds so I am happy with that but it would be foolish to put all my eggs in one basket so I will also back Baradari 20/1 E/W 888Sport 5 places who is a gorgeous looking animal, has good form & from the same weight as Dawalan is a much bigger price. 

The Champion Bumper is I'm afraid a divison I have neglected this year so I don't have much of an idea although Black Hercules was very impressive last time which I saw although I do wonder about the better ground. The other bumper horses I have seen is Modus who was extremely well backed at Exeter in October, he then came out to maintain his unbeaten record at Cheltenham in January in the shape of a useful horse & Seven Nation Army who looks a real galloper so the strong pace should suit him perfectly.
It won't be a race I am betting in though.

@fttfracing


                 







  

                        

                            


    
   

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