Cheltenham Festival Day One

Hello & welcome along to my blog for The Cheltenham Festival Day One; regular blog readers will know I have not blogged about National Hunt Racing for a good few months now but Cheltenham is upon us & the ground has started to turn which has given me new vigor to consider the Jumps again, after months of impossibly heavy ground & horses struggling through it, Cheltenham promises good to soft going on Day One & the prospect of it getting better throughout the week. As I am more of a Flat fan the better going excites me with many of the horses I have had in mind for months needing better ground to perform to their best.

Day One looks a cracker with the Stan James Champion Hurdle taking centre stage in what looks a quality renewal.

The traditional curtain raiser The Supreme Novices Hurdle is in my eyes just as good with 18 runners to do battle. 

Irving (pictured at Ascot) has taken over favouritism since his demolition job in the Dovecote at Kempton,

I have been fortunate to see 2 of his 4 wins at Ascot twice (see below) in which his speed & accuracy impressed me tremendously, he promises to be equally as good if not better on the drying ground & is a worthy favourite. I am on at bigger prices & I do expect him to win. Also as one of his owners @alantaxi follows me on Twitter & is a fellow Yiddo that is just another reason to want Irving to win. 

The main Irish hope would appear to be Vautour (see photo) although his trainer Willie Mullins saddles 2 other runners, Vautour won his Grade 1 courtesy of a fantastic Ruby ride from the front before then he scrambled home from another Irish runner tomorrow Western Boy, he is well thought of but I would have my doubts if he has the pace of some of his rivals.

 Stablemate Wicklow Brave (see photo below) is unbeaten in his last 5 runs but only 2 of them were over hurdles a maiden win from Western Boy & a Listed win last time, he is by Beat Hollow & he should improve for the better ground so is respected. 

The final Mullins runner is the Gigginstown owned Valseur Lido (see photo below) who really could be anything, he has won his last 2 races in hack canters, on form through his relatives he should be ok on this better ground & could be the one of the Mullins trio to give Irving most to do.

Nicky Henderson saddles Vaniteux & Josses Hill with the former being the choice of Barry Geraghty, Vaniteux (see photo below) hacked up in a weak Doncaster Novice after which his trainer said Aintree rather than Cheltenham but after the alarming drift in recent days on Josses Hill he runs here of course his trainer has said he's been working well but for me on all known form he should not be good enough, his jumping was very sketchy at Kempton on Boxing Day.

 Josses Hill is a lovely horse who will make a smashing chaser but the vibes have been bad for a few days now.

Ireland are also represented by recent Boylesports.com Hurdle winner Gilgamboa who jumped & travelled beautifully to win well at the end, he will have no problem with the hustle & bustle of this, he is unexposed & could be improving at the right time.

Western Boy (see photo below) has form with 2 of the Mullins runners & is fancied by many to run a very good race, he is another who is unexposed over hurdles having had just 2 starts & promises to be suited by less testing conditions.

Sgt Reckless (see photo below) is a good honest horse who prepped for this with a win in a Jumpers Bumper,

 on a form line with Amore Alato he cannot beat Irving & a less taxing track might be more his bag. 

The Liquidator was a top NHF horse who bolted up when taking a 4 runner Novice back in November on Good ground, in a truly run race he may not have the pace for some of his rivals as he looks a stayer, he also has a shocking run to overcome last time out. 

The forgotten horse of the race is Garde La Victoire who looked a hurdler of some potential in the early part of the season dismissing the well thought of Regal Encore on debut at Aintree & Gone To Far at Warwick, he ran as well finishing a neck 2nd to a then inform Ballyalton at Cheltenham (see photo below (GLV Blue Colours))

before finishing 4th on bad ground at Kempton in the Tolworth, his trainer Philip Hobbs is in good form & always prepares his horses well for this meeting & Garde La Victoire has a similar softly softly profile to the stables Supreme winner Menorah. 

Betfair Hurdle winner Splash Of Ginge will be up there but faces a real tough task against some quality opposition here as does Fantasy King, Germany Calling, Sky Khan, Three Kingdoms & Un Ace. Wilde Blue Yonder really should be on the no hopers list but he has a decent reputation & won very nicely on hurdles debut at Newbury back in November form of which is working out well, he has however fallen his last twice both times when looking likely to challenge the leader & the last time at Ascot when well in command, lack of concentration looks the issue which is a worry for tomorrow but the strong pace will suit & he could well outrun his odds.

I am a huge fan of Irving & do expect him to win, but as I have already backed him at big odds & it is the Supreme with favourites having an average record I would have an E/W saver on Garde La Victoire 40/1 Stan James 3 places at bigger odds than he should be. 

Valseur Lido may well prove best of the Mullins battalions with Gilgamboa also involved at the finish.

The Racing Post Arkle is a small but select field of 9 this year & honestly nothing has really grabbed my attention in the 2 mile Novice apart from one horse from early in the season, I have backed him at big odds already & have no need to get involved on the day.

Dual Festival winner Champagne Fever heads the market but has not been electric so far, he will be primed for tomorrow & I'm sure he will be involved. Former Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby has not impressed everyone with his jumping so far but from what I've seen he has been fine, the test will be the 3rd last if he is contention jumping at speeds he will not yet have jumped at over fences. 

I am not a Dodging Bullets fan, he has been winning but just not grabbing me, put it this way I couldn't see him being a Queen Mother horse so I can't see him winning an Arkle. Grandouet is just an overrated horse who doesn't jump well enough. I can see the logic for Ted Veale taking in the Arkle as it is a winnable race for this talented hurdler who has not been enjoying the bad winter ground, he will be a different proposition tomorrow. 

Trifolium has done very little wrong in his career overall & has been jumping well over fences so far, he has to be involved. 

Valdez (see photo below) stood out as an Arkle horse for me after his Exeter debut, he has jumped smoothly & accurately in his 2 wins before his last win in The Lightning at Doncaster where the pace caught him out in the ground on his first run for 2 months after his stable had been shut down, he showed admirable battling qualities to come back & win from a tiring Arnaud. 

Valdez is the horse I backed ages ago so I see no reason to jump ship now.

Brick Red has little chance judged on recent efforts, Western Warhorse (see below) is a horse I like, built for chasing as he showed when a ready winner of chase debut at Doncaster from Victor Hewgo (twice a winner since), he gets worked up as he showed when bolting round the track at Kempton on Boxing Day which is a worry for the Festival, the other worry is his lack of experience but he is a nice horse for the future.

Valdez can take this me & take advantage of his good jumping. Ted Veale can chase him home from either Champagne Fever or Rock On Ruby (as I think one will fall but am unsure which one).

The newly named Baylis & Harding Handicap Chase looks hellishly competitive with 24 runners declared. I haven't considered this race ante post & would struggle to find a bet in it tomorrow so I am happy to leave it alone. 

The talented but inconsistent Cantlow is still relatively well treated judging by his early season from, he has not been risked on the bad winter ground & is ridden by the races most successful jockey Robert Thornton. 

Alfie Sherrin won this very race off a 2lb higher mark in 2012 & was 4th in The Kim Muir last year, he has not been seen since a highly encouraging run over hurdles at Haydock in November, he is in the National but not likely to make the cut so tomorrow looks like it will be his day especially with McCoy booked & the way the betting is shaping up.

Holywell a stablemate of Alfie Sherrin's has got his act together over fences the last twice but still doesn't appeal to me. 

Hadrian's Approach is another young chaser who is fancied but everytime he has run in big fields he has disappointed, I don't believe he jumps well enough either.

Restless Harry has got his act together in recent starts & gained a deserved Listed win last time battling all the way up the straight, he cannot be discounted neither can Northern raiders Green Flag (see photo below) who should also appreciate better ground 

& Vintage Star who has been in grand form recently, being by Presenting the better going should improve him, his jumping should hold him in good stead.

Last year's winner Golden Chieftain returns much higher in the weights & with only run since his shock success 12 months ago so he is passed over. Pacha Du Polder has to prove he stays, if he does he could be a player as he is a bold jumping front runner who will relish better ground. Renard has been running well all season, he has chances as does Irish raider Wrong Turn who has been impressive in 2 recent chase successes at Leopardstown.

King Massini has been saved for this after fantastic early season form including a win at Cheltenham in December, this is a massive step up for him but if retaining the same rich vein of form he could well be in the shake up.

The Package looks harshly handicapped, he has been 2nd / 4th & PUP in this race over the last 3 seasons, stablemate Standing Ovation was a big early season improver, his recent return failed to set the world on fire but a better run tomorrow would be no great surprise. 

Tough race which I will leave alone for betting purposes but I would envisage it involving Alfie Sherrin, Vintage Star, Restless Harry & Pacha Du Polder.

The big one of the first day is The Stan James Champion Hurdle:

Captain Cee Bee 

- Grand old horse, pacemaker.

Grumeti 

- Still not confirmed promise of his Juvenile campaign, out of his depth.

Hurricane Fly 

- Dual Champion, 19 Grade 1's but I've never been won over, last year's Champion was weak compared to this & he was all out to beat the overall disappointing Peddler's Cross in 2011, wins all the time in Ireland but those races always seem to suit him. At 10 he has to be vulnerable.

Jezki 

- Made no secret I love this horse & perhaps heart is ruling head but I believe he is sitting on a huge performance reunited with Barry Geraghty & wearing a hood for the 1st time.

Melodic Rendezvous 

- Really good horse in his own right who went into my notebook the day he won a Chepstow bumper. Has since gone on to prove he is one of the best of our hurdlers. He has yet to race at a Cheltenham Festival which is a slight negative. Thought by many to be a mudlark but that's harsh as its all he's had to run on for awhile & is overpriced. Could easily make the frame.

My Tent Or Yours 

- Just a big bridle horse to me, loves Flat tracks & would have been beaten in Christmas Hurdle had The New One not made a mistake. Can't have him.

Our Conor 

- Will be a Champion one day but not sure it will be this year, been beaten by The Fly last twice when races were not run to suit, convinced he will beat The Fly tomorrow but think Jezki may just have him at the finish.

Ptit Zig 

- Ran a screamer under a big weight it The Ladbroke but easily brushed aside by Melodic Rendezvous last time.

The New One 

- The main hope of England according to the betting, his jumping will never be terrific but like last year he will be primed for tomorrow which makes him a dangerous opponent.

1) Jezki

2) Our Conor

3) The New One

I will be backing Jezki 10/1 BetVictor / Stan James / Ladbrokes again tomorrow as he is still over priced.

The Mares Hurdle revolves around the incomparable Quevega who bids for an astonishing 6th straight win, if she's right she wins.

 She faces a genuine opponent this year in the excellent Cockney Sparrow but even her best is someway below the might mares. 

One at a bigger price to hit the frame is Harry Fry's progressive Highland Retreat (seen after winning OLBG Mares Hurdle at Ascot last time) who went some gallop in the Ascot mud last time & battled on well to win.

The Terry Biddlecombe National Hunt Chase now looks between Foxrock (see photo below), Suntiep, Shutthefrontdoor & Shotgun Paddy. I had a long term fancy for the race but he has been rerouted & it's another race I will be steering clear of.

The final race of Day One is the 2m4f Novices Handicap Chase for horses rated 0 - 140, I had hoped The Romford Pele would make it but as he hasn't I can take a fresh look.

7 year olds have dominated in the races 9 year history having won 6 renewals, the weight range had been steady until the last 2 years but on the whole you want a horse carrying between 11-04 & 10-11.

That leaves us looking at the bottom 7 in the weights headed by Jonjo O'Neill's 3rd runner Festive Affair who won a 2m1f Newbury Novice (see photo below (leading over Water Jump)) last time beating Arkle hope Brick Red comfortably, he had Festival winner written all over him that day & as this is the race they have chosen I will have to back him, before that he had strong Hunter Chase form in Ireland. 

Buywise is a young chaser on a sharp upward curve winning his last 3 starts at Ludlow (twice) & Taunton, this is a step up but he is respected. 

Tony Star is a 2nd season Novice who has yet to win over fences, Buthelezi once ran in a St Leger but his last win was a limited handicap chase at Plumpton beating 2 opponents this is a step up. 

Ohio Gold like Tony Star is a second season Novice, his form is much better but he still has not won over fences however he does have the ability to be involved as he showed when 3rd in this race last year. 

King Vuvuzela (see photo below (nearest number 13)) has long promised to be useful & this is the season he has started to shine winning twice over the larger obstacles, he has been on my radar for Cheltenham all season so I cannot leave him unbacked.

Gardefort the bottom weight had useful form in France but this is a big ask after pulling up on his UK debut.

Towards the top of the weights are Ericht; always flattered to deceive, Up To Something; good horse but weighted up to his best, Grandad's Horse; very good early season form when yeard could do no wrong, missed the bad winter ground & returns today could run well at inflated odds. 

Baby Mix; overall disappointing but has been getting his act together for the excellent Warren Greatrex this season, if he jumping holds he can play a part. Art Of Logistics has been a good Novice if just below the top company this season, this is much more his Grade & is another with a chance.

Manyriverstocross has been a grand dual purpose horse over the years & now finds himself at the age of 9 over fences fancied for a Festival Chase, I can't have him. 

Persian Snow has been a Warwick regular this season but faces an uphill task here as does Ahayouknowyourself, Dursey Sound, Close House & former Festival winner Attaglance.

Pendra (see photo below) is the apple of Charlie Longsdon's eye but I wonder if at the start of the season if it was this race that his up & coming trainer expected him to be in. 

He started well winning 2 very weak Novices before finishing a very disappointing 7th when his jumping came under scrutiny in a Handicap at Ascot, he has been off since & it would take a leap of faith to back him especially as his only experience of Cheltenham was a disappointing one. I think he needs another year & will find this coming too soon. Present View has had a good season but has beaten very little, the hustle & bustle of a Festival race will be a new experience for him.

I like Festive Affair 18/1 BetVictor & King Vuvuzela 25/1 BetBright in this so I will be splitting my stakes, dangers include Art Of Logistics, Baby Mix, Grandad's Horse & Ohio Gold.

A word of warning I will endeavour to produce blogs for the rest of the week but we are on Baby alert here with my first child being due tomorrow.

Good luck to everyone, I hope you all have a very enjoyable & profitable week.  

@fttfracing