Wednesday 5 March 2014

Dubai International Racing Carnival Night 10: Super Saturday Preview

Hello & welcome along to my #DWCC14 blog, so after 9 weeks of fantastic racing we are on the cusp of #SuperSaturday & looking at the entries as a whole it does not disappoint with some fabulous sport on offer. The only cloud hanging over Saturday is the current ban on the Carnival's leading rider Silvestre De Sousa for a very minor offence aboard Racy last week (see previous blog) hopefully his appeal (due to to be heard today 05/03/14) will be successful. Unfortunately as announced via @BrettPresents earlier today on Twitter it has been unsuccessful so William Buick now comes in for the plum ride on African Story in the Al Maktoum Challenge, the horse is an uncomplicated ride & William Buick is a Top Rider so I see no problems.      
Now on to #SuperSaturday card:

The opening thoroughbred race is perhaps the weakest of the 7 races & in truth the 3yo's have been the weakest division but even in a weak section there is always a horse that stands out, this race is no exception with He's No Saint (see photo) for the Lavelle's standing head & shoulders above his opponents. 


He won the trial for last week's Meydan Classic in comfortable fashion on Turf on his last start & now switches to Tapeta which will pose no problems to this Dundalk winner. In opposition are the usual suspects Najm Suhail (decent enough but never has anything left at the death to repel better animals), Chord Chart (Not good enough), Asmar (Useful maiden but biting off more than he chew here), Eye In The Sky, More Aspen & Duke Derby (Outclassed)
The filly Letterfromamerica faces an uphill task, the horse most likely to chase He's No Saint home is the consistent Emirates Flyer who actually stayed the mile well enough to get 2nd last time behind the impressive Long John. 
Full Combat was massively disappointing last time pulling too hard before dropping away like a stone, he tries Tapeta here & may appreciate it but I couldn't back him after his last race.

A race lacking depth which can go the way of He's No Saint 5/2 WIN Bet365.

The Group 3 Meydan Sprint features 3 Group class sprinters, handicappers & UAE horses that are outclassed. Head & shoulders above the field are old rivals Shea Shea & Sole Power who make their first starts of the year. 
Starting with Shea Shea (see photo) who has been in Dubai for awhile now & has been working well but as with all Mike De Kock horses this is not his end game so I expect him to run well but need this. 


Sole Power (see photo) flew in from Ireland recently but as a seasoned traveller this should be no issue, I assume as well that he will also need this & for me he has an unfavourable draw judging by the way these 5f races have been so far.


Ahtoug has been running to a good level in Dubai is on the inside of Sole Power so he has also been done no favours by the draw & racing off level weights against better horses is an issue too, another Irish raider Abstraction is in 13 which is not a help, neither is the fact he ran disappointedly last time & jinked badly the time before that. 
Beat Baby who ran so well a few weeks back when allowed to dominate is in the inside draw which again I feel is not ideal as you want to be in the middle in these straight sprint races however he has shown enough speed to get out quickly & be a factor.
 Catcall ran as expected in need of the race on his first start & will strip fitter today, he needs to be covered for one run as he will stop in front, his draw in 2 is perfect to hold him up but whether he appreciates fast ground is an issue for me. 
Roi Du Vitesse, Mundahesh & Make It Reel are not good enough while last week's Meydan Classic winner My Catch steps down in trip earlier than I expected, he is in form & is respected but this is the best race he has run in for a long time. 
The American Zee Bros (see photo) was hoping to get in the Mahab Al Shimaal for which he is first reserve so 5f on Turf is clearly not expected to be his bag but then on the other hand why enter him?.....surely you wouldn't just come all that way to enter a horse & potentially run him on a surface he won't like, I wonder if they think he might handle it, his pedigree is dirt but there are always exceptions in horse racing & I thought he ran a decent race last week, the booking of Frankie Dettori makes him at least interesting.


Dux Scholar has to be considered after bouncing back to form last week & from his good draw on Saturday. Hototo has run twice at the Carnival & twice been placed, he wears his heart on his sleeve blazing a trail up front, I wonder whether he can outrun his odds on Saturday as he will only have Beat Baby as competition for the lead & he should see him off, his fitness & track position may just allow him to gain a very deserved win. Russian Rock will have run in Friday's Jebel Ali Sprint before coming back to Meydan on Saturday to compete in this, he did the same last year winning at Jebel Ali before finishing 4th at Meydan so he is respected depending how he runs on Friday. 
Lastly is the Saudi mare Alsaaeqah who came with a sustained late run to win last time out beating an unlucky Medicean Man (2 x winner since) whether she can repeat it in better company on Saturday is an issue but she clearly has a decent level of ability so should be considered.

A tough race in which I cannot see a bet but I can see Hototo running well, Shea Shea & Sole Power will need the runs but as they are the best horses in the field one of them may have a enough class to win first time out. 
Others to be involved should included Alsaaeqah, Dux Scholar & I think Zee Bros could well run a nice race.  

The Tapeta sprint the Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 comes up next & sees the return of Soft Falling Rain (see photo), a strange choice of race for me but then Mike De Kock has always said he has the speed to compete in top level sprints. 


The draw for Soft Falling Rain is shocking though 14/14 although it is worth remembering he won last year's Godolphin Mile from draw 13/16 so he has the latent ability its just whether he will be ready to rock first time out.
Abu Sidra showed zip last week & is out again in a hotter race so faces an uphill task, Complicate (see photo below) ran much better than I envisaged in a strange race last time taking advantage of better fancied runners misfortune on the inside to finish a close 3rd, 


I still have reservations about this horse though & can't see him repeating that run, his fellow ex Australian Godolphin team mate Bello finished just in behind him last time after meeting some trouble, it was quite an encouraging first run & I would expect him to turn the tables on Complicate on Saturday whether that's good enough to win I am not sure. 
Tamaathul is an admirable old horse who is outclassed in this grade. 
Rich Tapestry (see photo) is a smart Hong Kong sprinter who won a trial on Sha Tin's dirt track a few weeks go where he recorded an an impressive time of 1.10.2s. 


Rich Tapestry is a Group 2 winner on Turf at Sha Tin, but his trainer Chang & regular pilot Olivier Doleuze believe he his best is on AWT. Previously trained as a stayer in Ireland when with Dermot Weld he has been reinvented in Hong Kong although on form he is only a decent sprinter & for me faces a tough task on Saturday.
Nawwaar was extremely disappointing last week finishing down the field, Abu Dhabi is his track & Turf is his bag so he is well outclassed. Krypton Factor has not been anywhere near his best this season & I don't see Richard Hughes suiting him. Balmont Mast never really got in a challenging position in a rough race last time, he is better than that & is respected on Saturday as is fellow Irishman Jamesie (see photo) who has been reinvigorated this year running a massive race to finish 2nd behind Russian Soul after getting stuck up the rail, he has a much more central draw to attack on Saturday & I think he can run a huge race. 


Last year's Dubai Champion Sprinter Reynaldothewizard was very disappointing on his only start & he can only be watched on Saturday. Russian Soul gained a deserved victory last time after a string of consistent Dubai & Irish efforts, he is drawn out wide like last time & cannot be discounted. 
United Color had an awful passage down against the rails last time & that run can be thrown out, on his first win he is the sprinter to beat & the wider draw should help him stay out of trouble at the weekend, he is a huge player. Gale Force Ten is just nowhere near good enough in my eyes.

A corking sprint in which I have a slight preference for Jameise 10/1 E/W Bet365 / William Hill from his draw with United Color, Russian Soul, Balmont Mast & Soft Falling Rain fighting out the minor placings.

The Burj Nahaar Group 3 over 8f on Tapeta sees the return to action of Variety Club (see photo) South Africa's dual Horse of the Year who was impressive when accounting for inferior rivals in the Firebreak Stakes a few weeks ago, in truth he is once again well clear on ratings in this & if remaining in the same form should be tough to beat but I do always wonder about a horse after such a dominant display first time out after a long time off whether they can repeat it so I would rather watch him on Saturday. 


As for his opponents well Rutland Boy has no chance, Zahee is a rogue who I could not trust, Gold City for all he won well last week is not upto this, Mainsail an ex Andre Fabre animal was 2nd in a local Qatari Group 1 last time but on all no form is not up to this, (Now a N/R) Ocean Tempest has now got into the lin0up but he has even less chance than Mainsail had, Dastarhon has won on a synthetic surface but in a much lower grade, he is not really up to this class & Van Rooney is a decent handicapper but has had his limitations exposed in this company before. 
Forjatt is a decent animal at Jebel Ali who ran an very nice race on Turf last time behind Vercingetorix (runner later on the card), if he can go on from that I can see him running ok. Capital Attraction won nicely in lesser company last week & deserves his chance in this but he was easily beaten by Variety Club the time before as was Haatheq who ran 2nd but is entitled to improve again, Empire Storm also ran behind the South African Champion last time when finishing 3rd, if Variety Club does not go on like he did last time then Fallon may get the easy lead that suited Empire Storm so well on his first start, I don't think he is good enough but he could place given an uncontested lead. 
Gabrial goes on trial for the Godolphin Mile in this & tries synthetics for the first time, on the plus side Dark Angel's do go on synthetics but on his run style I don't see him being suited. 
More likely to be threats to the favourite are Shuruq, Eastern Rules & Avon Pearl; Eastern Rules (see photo) has improved massively in Dubai this year, yes it is of course a step up but he beat minor stakes horses last time & he has earned a go at Group company.


Shuruq (see photo below) started her campaign with a win in the 1st Round of The Al Maktoum Challenge before being sacrificed for Certify in the Cape Verdi, a much better filly on synthetics this represents her toughest challenge yet but she is a worthy opponent.


 Avon Pearl won in the style of a well handicapped horse last time (as I thought he was) &


 has been placed in minor stakes company before my reason for thinking he can run well on Saturday is he is in form & it was the manner of his victory last time, he cruised through the race & quickened away to win impressively. 
Lastly poor Brendan Brackan has been done no favours by the draw once more 16/16 & faces an almighty task to get involved from that gate.

Interesting race which should go the way of Variety Club but I see no reason to desert Avon Pearl 20/1 E/W Bet365 (or bigger when other bookies come online) who won in the style of an improving horse & he will be underbet once more. 
Eastern Rules will also be involved at the business end.

The trial for The Sheema Classic is up next in the shape of The Group 2 Dubai City of Gold & as expected for me anyway Mujaarib (see photo) steps up in trip after being badly outpaced over shorter last time before staying on strongly to the line. He is a horse I like quite a bit & the likely more even gallop on Saturday will suit he is Australian bred for trips so I see no issue with him staying so I expect him to go very close.


His opponents are Model Pupil who is outclassed, Dabadiyan who I was disappointed with last time after reviewing the race a few times, he looks like a stayer & will need a true test over the 1m4f which he should get in this so maybe that will bring him into contention, he does also have to prove he is Group class. 
Empoli consented to go in the stalls last time & actually ran a very good race although he was well placed by his excellent rider to attack off the slow pace that inconvenienced Mujaarib, the 1m4f trip will be much more in his favour so he is respected. 
Mount Athos makes his seasonal debut over a trip well short of his best, he ended last campaign with a disappointing display in Hong Kong before that he had run a mighty race in the Melbourne Cup, he will need the run for me on Saturday. 
Excellent Result (see photo) steps up in grade & drops in trip which surprises me as I thought he was a stayer on the up after a good win at 1m6f last time, he will need to improve to take a hand & will need a decent end to end gallop which he should get. I like the horse, his form is rock solid & I may even be tempted to back him if the price is right as he is improving.


Sheikhzayadroad is a horse with lots of ability but also lots of mind, he looks ungainly sometimes in a finish & I wouldn't trust him completely, this trip is what he wants as well as a good gallop which would also be in his favour so he drop out the back & come with a long withering run, this represents a step up in class for him & the last twice that he ran above handicap company he has been beaten by old Forgotten Voice which hardly inspires me to believe he can win a race of this calibre.
Songcraft was clearly primed to win his handicap last time as he was well talked up, this is a step up for him as he has only won above a handicap once & that was a 1m6f Listed race at York last year. For all he likes Dubai I think he will struggle on Saturday. 
Heavy Metal (see photo) has been disappointing in Dubai so far over trips short of his best & on a surface he clearly did not act on last time. 


Stepping back up in trip will be better for him but even though he won the Durban July Group 1 he wasn't exactly fancied for it going off a 16/1 shot that day, his overall form in South Africa is ok but not fantastic so he has it to prove for me. 
Penglai Pavillion makes his Godolphin / Carnival debut after finishing a respectable 5th in last year's Arc, he was an improving 3 year old at a lesser level last season, he should be up to this class but as with all of Charlie Appleby's runners he will most likely need this. He has been working well as you can see in the photo below. 


Ralston Road is not up to this Grade for me & would be better over further, old Start Right for all his consistency this season is another who is outclassed & this trip might be a little too far. Interpret is outclassed & so you would think is Jamr apart from the fact he is partnered by Christophe Soumillon is a big plus after an encouraging first run back 2 weeks ago behind Empoli & Mujaarib, he could well run a big race in behind. 
Meandre to his credit ran better than I expected in the handicap last time behind Songcraft but he has an average draw on Saturday & I don't believe he is good enough for all he is a 4 time Group 1 winner (lesser Group 1's in Europe). Battle Of Marengo has now switched stables after a bitterly disappointing first start, he will do better with David Simcock but still is not up to this, his draw is awful & as I have said before Ballydoyle let him go for a reason

A very intriguing race in which I am a fan of Mujaarib 8/1 E/W Bet365 who I think can win this before taking his chance in The Sheema Classic.
I can see a decent run forthcoming from Excellent Result 14/1 E/W Skybet in behind with Empoli, Penglai Pavillion & Jamr running big races. 

The first Group 1 of the night is the final leg of The Al Maktoum Challenge it may not be truly up to Group 1 status this year but is still a very decent race:

Prince Bishop -
the enterprisingly ridden winner of Round 2 is back & has to be respected once more on a surface he loves. 


Mutajare -
is a decent animal but not up to this. 

Ottoman Empire -
decent horse who for all he has been a star of the Carnival for years but at the age of 8 will find this very tough. 

Zambuca -
excelled himself in the last round finishing a distant 3rd & will do well to better that.

Elleval -
looks to have an excellent chance on what could be a brilliant night for the Lavelle's, he won so impressively last time & was at least Group 3 class on Tapeta last year which is his best surface. 


Side Glance -
excelled himself in last year's World Cup finishing 4th & went on global travels last season winning a Group 1 in Australia at the end of the year. He is a good horse but will need this.

Alexandra Palace -
ran a much better race last week but needs a huge amount of improvement to be involved in this judging by his last 2 runs.

African Story -
has the draw on Saturday to avenge his unlucky defeat by Prince Bishop last time, for me he can win this before winning the World Cup.


Cat O'Mountain -
very surprised he's in this given how easily he was beaten last time & Charlie Appleby's comments about not wanting to over face the horse to soon in better company. I just can't see him being involved. 
(nearest in photo) 


Joshua Tree -
not good enough for me, wins weak Canadian Group 1's & for all that this is not the highest quality Group 1 I can't have him on the surface.

Limario -
minor German Group 3 winner whose form is nowhere near as good as Empoli, ability to handle the surface must be in doubt.

Educate -
 outclassed for me by a long way.

Sanshaawes -
interesting he's taking his chance, seems a bit of a rush for me as he has had 3 quick races & is a free sweater, better grade & poor draw make him of no interest to me.


Surfer -
 horrible draw once more makes him of little interest.

I am an African Story 7/4 WIN Betfred fan & I expect him to win this before winning the World Cup, Elleval & Prince Bishop can chase him home.

The final race of the night is the 2nd Group 1 The Jebel Hatta over 9f on Turf:

Tanfeeth -
no chance in this Grade.

Vercingetorix -
big reputation in South Africa, didn't have to be at his best to win in a crawl last time. Seems to be a horse that only does enough, this is the toughest field he's faced so we'll have to see what he can produce. I have my doubts as to how much he has left in the tank when it gets tough so not for me.


Vancouverite -
didn't seem to get home over 12f in the Niel when last seen before that had been an impressive winner of the Prix Guillano D'Ornano (see photo). Every reason to expect improvement as a 4 year old & respected.


L'Amour De Ma Vie -
showed her Cape Verdi run to be no fluke when winning the Balanchine well, has to be taken seriously in this.


Linton -
Group 1 winner from Australia last year now with Marco Botti, fascinating contender, as an 8 year old is likely to need this & the Botti stable have yet to have a winner at the Carnival.


Mustaheel -
should not be good enough in this Grade.

Mushreq - 
consistent & classy animal, slightly below par last week but the better gallop that this race promises will help & I can see him being bang there.

Trade Storm -
Just can't have him, don't see him being really good enough to take this. 

Quick Wit -
good honest horse but he looks to be punching above his weight in this.

Anaerobio -
winning run came to an end in a handicap last time & will struggle in this.

Samurai Sword - 
a real potential fly in the ointment in this for me, won well last week which will have done him the world of good, he is still relatively unexposed & I think is up to minor Group company so given luck in running I can see him being involved.


Edu Querido -
not up to this from what I've seen.

Al Waab -
very much outclassed.

Mars - 
has been overrated throughout his short career, well beaten last start on Tapeta, has a bad draw & has shown nothing to be considered up to this class.

Another interesting race to end the night in which Vercingetorix will be overbet for me, I need to see more from the horse so I couldn't have him. 
Mushreq is consistent & honest so you know what you get from him, he will be in there fighting but I think I will spilt my stakes on L'Amour De Ma Vie 7/1 E/W Coral / Betfred / William Hill & Samurai Sword 28/1 E/W Skybet who is capable of better.



@fttfracing



    

             

     
   
    

   

                         

            

         
        



   

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