Goodwood Friday 23/05/2014

The feature on Day 2 of Goodwood's May meeting is The Cocked Hat Stakes Listed better known as The Predominate Stakes & is the last recognised Derby trial. 
It has only ever produced one Derby winner in the shape of the great Troy in 1979 but has seen several very useful winners over the years, Ibn Bay 1987 (Triple Group 1 winner), Minster Son 1988 (St Leger Group 1), Pentire 1995 (Dual Group 1 winner), the World Champion Dubai Millenium (4 x Group 1 winner), the ill fated Rewilding (Dual Group 1 winner & 3rd in The Derby) & most recently Masked Marvel 2011 who went on to win The St Leger Group 1.

This year sees just 6 runners go to post in which 3 (Observational, Postponed & Signposted) are entered in The Blue Riband of the Turf;
Barley Mow heads the field, he has a 3lb penalty courtesy of a win in Listed company at Newmarket when doggedly making all, Pinzolo has since come out & won in Listed company last weekend which gives the form a solid look, before the change of tactics Barley Mow had been pretty disappointing in 2 starts this season, despite giving away weight in this he has to be respected due to the game attitude he showed at Newmarket. 

Postponed was beaten just over 2 lengths by Barley Mow at Newmarket when joint favourite for the race, he lacked a change of gear at a crucial stage in a slowly run race, it was disappointing that he never really picked up, if he gets a more even tempo to aim then he can be involved but I can only see minor place money coming his way at best. 
Observational is still a maiden after 2 starts he only went down by the shortest of margins behind Sudden Wonder over a month ago, Sudden Wonder has since run with credit upped in Grade so Observational is well worth trying at pattern level too, he is a big horse who covers a lot of ground & is respected. 

Marzocco is a muscular individual who seemed all at sea around Epsom in their Derby Trial a month ago until very late on when he finished with a fair old rattle to only just lose out, he was due to have contested races at Chester & York recently but was pulled out due to the ground, being by Top American Turf horse Kitten's Joy he should excel on the faster ground so hopefully there will be no significant rainfall to change the ground from its current state of Good come tomorrow, I expect a bold from this likeable horse.
(After heavy showers ground is now soft which is disappointing as I am not 100% sure he will cope with it, if he does then I believe he can win)

Signposted was in behind Marzocco at Epsom & finished behind Sudden Wonder at Lingfield, he looks slow in all honesty & will be seen to better effect over further. 

Snow Trouble steps up in grade after a distinctly average run in handicap company at the Guineas meeting when expected to win, he never travelled & found little, the form of his first run of the season is not working out as the winner has been easily beaten in a higher grade since on the plus side he has won at Goodwood but I still cannot not see him getting involved.

Marzocco 7/2 Paddy Power can take this from Barley Mow & Observational. 

The most competitive race on the card is at 4:35, a 6f sprint handicap featuring many of the usual suspects from the division, Seeking Magic who won the consolation Stewards Cup last season is operating well above that winning mark & showed up well on his seasonal debut when not getting the clearest of runs, he is a sprinter who should be capable off his mark as he is still improving & has a valuable 5lbs taken off by his young jockey, can see him running ok but still think that he will need another run before becoming competitive. Humidor is hard to win with but to be fair to the horse he has been facing incredibly tough tasks for years now, his last win was in 2011 & his last handicap win was the same year off 87, work to do. 
Secret Asset has a similar profile to that of Humidor although with him its more in his head. Barracuda Boy still has potential to become a decent sprint handicapper after a tough season as a 3yo, he gained a confidence boosting win last time & is not without hope in this. Ashpan Sam got going late at York last week over 5f when fancied, I feel that cut in the ground is what he needs & after the heavy showers of earlier today he now has it.
Watchable has had just 2 starts & this is his first handicap, I think his mark looks pretty harsh judged on his form but on the plus he is trained by the shrewd David O'Meara. Gramercy showed his liking for big field 7f handicaps once more last time with a staying on 5th in The Victoria Cup, he is more than capable of winning from his current mark but he is none too consistent. 
Secondo was disappointing in behind Seeking Magic at Newmarket last time, even allowing for enhanced fitness this time he looks a few lbs too high. 
Clear Spring was fancied when disappointing badly at Ascot last time, I do feel there were mitigating excuses though as he raced on the wrong side away from the pace so he was always on the back foot, he used so much energy trying to get involved that he had none left at the end, he showed enough on his previous start to suggest he can at least be competitive from his higher mark. 

Ajjaadd is surprisingly not entered in the Epsom Dash in a couple of weeks which he was fancied for last season, he is edging down the weights & this may be another race to get a run into him before coming back here at The Glorious meeting to see if he can better his 2nd place finish in last season's Stewards Cup. 
Barnet Fair is another who would be interesting in the next few weeks most likely in The Dash after his run here which would put him spot on for Epsom in 2 weeks. 
Joe Packet still remains below his last winning mark, the race at York did not suit in the end last week as the ground had changed as it has again here.
Intrinsic is upped in grade in search of a hat trick, dangerous to rule out from a top sprint trainer.
Muthmir will no doubt be popular who now as a 4yo from a mark of just 87 could be worth following, his first attempt at a handicap ended in a decent run behind some in form horses at the time & he has been given plenty of time to mature since last August, interesting runner. Desert Command is another young sprinter with potential to improve, from a very speedy family he has shown a liking already for these fast downhill tracks, upped in grade he is another who could play a part. Crew Cut has never cut it above Class 4 handicap level & has work to do in this, a defence of his grey's race title back in August will be his main target for the season. Waseem Faris is inconsistent & this better grade will not be to his liking. 

Strong race for midweek but a non betting event for me.

Red Refraction must have a decent chance in the 7 furlong handicap after a staying on joint 2nd place finish in a decent 6f handicap at Ascot last time, he was hampered in the run that day so that run can be marked up. Ground should be ok for him.

Top weight Bluegrass Blues is a decent handicapper who should have the ability to be competitive after a good run in a better grade last time. 
LordofTheShadows has not won for ages, if he could find anywhere near his best he would be competitive & perhaps first time out is when that could happen. 
Good Luck Charm showed enough last time on soft ground to suggest he could get involved next time out with Ryan Moore booked you could see that being Friday. Czech It Out is another to have chances in this extremely tight race, he showed up well on his seasonal return at the course at the start of the month & is on a workable mark here. Related a consistent horse last year bombed out on his first start this season, he needs to show more from his mark. Take A Note could do with coming down a few lbs to be involved. Atlantis Crossing is well in on his Turf mark compared to his high 90 AWT rating, he needs to prove that he is as effective on Turf to be considered though which is doubtful. Gracious George is punching well above his weight in this.

Torn between two in this so will leave it alone. 


Eve Johnson-Houghton's Running Deer showed her new mark holds no fears for her at Chester 2 weeks ago with an excellent run against the boys in finishing 2nd back against her own sex she can regain the winning thread with now soft surface actually a plus for her. 

Phaenomena looks harshly done by on top weight in this, she has that mark due to her defeat of Astonishing at Newmarket last September who 1 week later won a Listed race at HQ. Sula Two is another to have a job on giving weight to younger inform rivals, softer ground is also more her bag. Kalispell was well beaten at Bath on her first start like most of her stable companions on their first runs so far this season with that run behind her it would be no surprise if she were more competitive on Friday. 
Tantalising's Irish form is over further although she has not won further than the 12 furlongs she faces here, her mark may just have her for now though. 
Rosaceous has been tried in Listed company twice to no avail since her shock maiden win last season, her handicap form is not much better either. 
Tioga Pass competes in her first handicap from a ok looking mark, she was a ready winner at Kempton last time but so far has shown more of a liking for a softer surface than she will hopefully encounter on Friday.

Fan of Running Deer 5/1 Ladbrokes & she can take this fillies event.

@fttfracing