The Ladbrokes St Leger is the world's oldest classic a fact that we in this country should be very proud of, the latest edition is run this Saturday 14th Sept 2013 at Doncaster Racecourse.
This year's edition does look a little weak on paper with only one Classic winner set to line up in the shape of runaway Oaks winner Talent the rest of the field is made of progressive colts & more exposed types.
So my question at the top of the blog is Do Godolphin hold the key?
Godolphin have won The St Leger 6 times in the last 17 years & as a family group the Maktoums have won 10 runnings since the great Touching Wood
won their first St Leger in 1982. So they know how to win it & not always with their first string as Mastery showed back in 2009.
So Godolphin's runners at present are Libertarian (the best horse in the race on his Dante / Derby runs), Secret Number & Cap O'Rushes (talked up by Racing Manager Simon Crisford in recent days).
When looking at The St Leger there are huge trends that stick out ie The Great Voltigeur at York & The Gordon Stakes at Goodwood.
The Gordon Stakes has produced 4 winners of The St Leger in the last 10 years with 2 winners of the race & 2 placed horses going on to Doncaster to be successful while The Great Voltigeur has had 2 winners & 3 placed horses going on to win the big one (Encke winner in 2012 was 2nd at Goodwood & 3rd at York).
The other big trend is that 3 trainers / operations have dominated J.Gosden x 3 winners, Godolphin x 3 winners & A.O'Brien x 2 winners.
So who do the boys in blue have to deal with on Saturday?
Current joint favourites are Gaileo Rock & Excess Knowledge, the former has been placed in both the Derby's at Epsom & The Curragh he has shaped like a horse who needs further in every race but I feel the layoff of 77 days is a negative as has been proved in recent Leger's you need to have match practice, Camelot tried it last year & he failed.
Excess Knowledge has become almost a default St Leger favourite in my eyes probably due to Pricewise selecting a few months & rivals dropping away. I was at Sandown the day he made his reappearance in a 1m2f Listed race he looked outstanding but in need of the race & so it proved even so he finished a staying on 3rd almost catching Afsare for 2nd beating David Livingston in the process. His next start came in The Gordon Stakes in which he patently didn't handle the track & finished with purpose to almost catch another rival on Saturday in Cap O'Rushes, everyone & his dog believed he would have won but have a different theory having watched a few of his races now I feel he might just save a bit for himself plus I believe Cap O'Rushes would have found more as he did all the way down the Goodwood straight.
Next in the betting come the O'Brien duo of Foundry & Leading Light, Foundry made a cracking return to action when 2nd in The Voltigeur after 9 months of the track & on only his second run, my problem is he may bounce & he is just to inexperienced for this race not to mention he's a doubtful stayer on pedigree. No doubts on that account for Leading Light you'd think who won Royal Ascot's Queens Vase over 2 miles but are there? The race was run at a crawl & he was the best on official figures so did he need to fully stay to win, I also need to take into account that 5 races to date he has beaten one rival of any substance another opponent on Saturday in Feel Like Dancing. Another negative is that he has not raced since Royal Ascot.
As I've just mentioned Feel Like Dancing I'll take a look at him next; he appeals as a real type for this race & the type that Gosden wins it with, highly thought of he didn't handle Chester back in May, ran over an inadequate 1m2f next time out, stayed on really well from a slow pace behind Leading Light at Royal Ascot before scrambling home from Jathahbah in the Bahrain Trophy (a race which Gosden used with former winner Masked Marvel). That form is knowhere near good enough for a normal St Leger but he could well be improving so is an interesting contender.
The Oaks winner Talent should stay as she tries to emulate User Friendly (see below) who won it for the fairer sex back in 1992 but she is coming back from a very disappointing run at The Curragh so has it to prove let alone taking on the Colts.
Great Hall steps up from a decent handicap success off 88 back in July, the form has been let down since & he really has a mountain to climb for all that he will stay. Havana Beat has bits of form that would give him a squeak but has to turn that form around with 3 of Saturday's prospective rivals so it seems unlikely while for all London Bridge has improved this year he has been put in his place in his last two starts & Ralston Road really is making up the numbers.
So I come back to my original question Do Godolphin hold the key?
From my workings above the answer is Yes.
Libertarian is the best horse in the race by the long way & has long been earmarked for this event by former trainer Karl Burke, he has a big disappointment to overcome but I feel that was down to being over raced to early, he will have benefited from a break & although Simon Crisford was downbeat recently you can't hold back class however I don't see him winning on Saturday.
Do I see Secret Number winning? maybe he has the ideal profile for the race having run at Goodwood & York with credit in fact his York run was arguably his best back in this country, there is a doubt on pedigree that he will stay but then I didn't think he'd stay as far as he has so far he is a definite player but the Godolphin horse I believe will win is Cap O'Rushes (always the way that Simon Crisford & his trainer Charlie Appleby have come out in the last few days saying he's their best chance)
Ladbrokes St Leger Group 1 Doncaster Saturday 14th Sept 2013
Cap O'Rushes 20/1 E/W Ladbrokes / Betvictor / Boylesports / Sportingbet / Stan James
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