Good evening & welcome along to this weekends blog, its a weekend that promises so very much with several top class races in all over the globe.
In the early hours of tomorrow morning down under a handful of Melbourne Cup hopefuls take their chances in The Group 1 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington at 07:25 am UK time the race features Manighar, Hawkspur, Fiorente, still favourite for the Melbourne Cup Puissance De Lune, Glencadam Gold, Jet Away & Dear Demi.
Earlier on the card in The Bart Cummings Listed race (06:05 am UK time) Sea Moon tries to regain the winning thread also in that race are Tanby, Moudre, Brigantin & the ex Sir Mark Prescott trained Motivado.
Over at Randwick former St Leger winner Masked Marvel runs for the 3rd time time Down Under in the APN Outdoor Craven Plate Group 3 he ran a much better race last time in 3rd so he must have a great chance of regaining winning ways although he faces a test against last year's Melbourne Cup 4th Kelinni who won his most recent barrier trial.
All the Australian races are available on Attheraces so set your Sky+.
My Ante Post Melbourne Cup hope Waldpark is 2nd reserve for The Turnbull & is unlikely to get a run so also has an entry at Benalla racetrack in the early hours of Sunday morning (08:16 am UK time) under top weight of 62kgs with Dwayne Dunn taking over from Ben Melham, this is his final prep race before his big 2 assignments in The Caulfield Cup / The Melbourne Cup.
Saturday's UK racing comes from Ascot, Fontwell, Newmarket, Redcar & Wolverhampton with 1 meeting in Ireland at Gowran Park.
Ascot is the main meeting with the 2nd day of The Beer Festival featuring 3 Group 3's, 2 Listed races & a feature 7f Handicap. It has the traditional end of season feel to it with big fields featuring horses who have been running in Group races all season without success & some new blood testing the water hoping for some valuable black type.
The first 2 races are tough & are best left to the bookies. The Cumberland Lodge Group 3 looks an excellent race with 7 really decent horses taking part, I am firmly in the camp of the improving Gospel Choir (see below)
The John Guest Bengough Stakes Group 3 features many old favourites who have tried this level all season & been beaten Heeraat, Hitchens, Hoof It to name a few but they face some improving younger animals namely Ladyship, Tropics, Intransigent & most notably for me anyway Music Master (see below in green & white);
The big 7f handicap is not as good as some that have gone so far this season which to me is a help for the improving Ascription from his new mark there has been significant rainfall in the last couple of days which is what he needs & yesterday's ground was changed to soft during the card, more rain looks likely to fall overnight so he must have a huge chance. I think the loveable talented rogue that is Pastoral Player can follow him home under his optimum conditions he won this race 2 years ago from 5lbs lower & clearly goes well at the course.
Newmarket features the last 2 of the Tattersalls Sales races which are non betting events for me in fact the whole card in general is of little interest. Poor Redcar's biggest race of the year is almost engulfed by Ascot & of course the first day of the Arc meeting at Longchamp so The Totepool Two year old Trophy Listed is merely an afterthought to most racing fans / punters tomorrow. It has the look of a race on the decline to me with nothing standing out tomorrow for betting or showcasing any horses who have really decent 2 year old form.
Longchamp on Saturday features 4 competitive Group 2's, its a lovely meeting to attend as you get a real feel for the course before the hustle & bustle of Arc day. Hughie Morrison steps the progressive Nearly Caught up in grade in The Qatar Prix Chaudenay he will be overpriced & is worth a bet at likely odds. A huge field of milers take to the stage for The Qatar Prix Daniel Wildenstein it should involve Gregorian, Peace Burg & the likely winner for me Mshawish.
The Qatar Prix De Royallieu looks a good opportunity for Yellow And Green & the final Group 2 at Longchamp tomorrow is The Qatar Prix Dollar in which the old boy Cirrus Des Aigles attempts to win this race for a 3rd time, he is the best on official ratings & got his head back in front last time, his main aim undoubtedly is another attempt at The Champion Stakes in 2 weeks so he could be vulnerable tomorrow. He faces a vastly improved rival in Maputo tomorrow & Planteur who gained a confidence boosting win at Windsor last time out.
Ending Saturday on a high is the reappearance of the US super horse Wise Dan in an uncompetitive Shadwell Turf Mile (22:21 UK time) in which he faces rivals he has beaten many times previously earlier on the Keenland card (21:17 UK time) Say (A.O'Brien) & Amazonas (E.Dunlop) both hold sound claims of claiming a Grade 1, at the likely prices I like Amazonas who has been trained with this race in mind.
Sunday is all about what has been billed the race of the season, The Qatar Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe. This years is a deep renewal featuring 9 individual Group 1 winners & at this stage with sporadic weather reports is likely to be run on soft ground. The draw took place this morning with the favourite Orfevre getting a favourable 8 while Treve has been drawn in 15, whatever some pundits say the draw does have an effect with only Dalakhani winning from a high draw in the last 10 years & even before then I remember many horses flying down the long Longchamp home straight just failing due to the problems caused by traffic & high draws who can forget the debacle that was White Muzzle, Hernando although only drawn in 10 still found it an inconvenience, Croco Rouge in '98 & Sulamani '02 of course there are great horses who overcome the high draw Sakhee ridden beautifully by Frankie & most recently Dalakhani in what was probably an average Arc.
In this years race the 4 horses drawn 1-4 are Very Nice Name, Meandre, Pirika & Going Somewhere who range from 66/1 - 100/1 so in my opinion they have no hope, also I believe the horses drawn outside them are faster out of the blocks so for me Leading Light, Ruler Of The World, Flintshire, Orfevre, Intello, Penglai Pavillion, Novellist & Ocavango move up in the draw order which is good for my main hope Ocavango who is drawn in 13 but with the 4 lowest horses really not being good enough he moves up to 8.
My verdict on all the runners in racecard order is as follows:
1) Very Nice Name - not good enough
2) Novellist - The most solid runner who will be hard to keep out of the frame
3) Al Kazeem - Has the ground his trainer has wanted for ages but has a terrible draw, has had a hard season & looks over the top
4) Joshua Tree - Decent International horse who is barely Group 2 class in Europe
5) Meandre - Not good enough in 2 previous Arc's who is hardly improving so why is he good enough now?
6) Orfevre - This year's Arc is a deeper race, I also think he doesn't want a battle as he will just curl up due to his quirky nature I can't even see him hitting the frame.
7) Going Somewhere - Good form in Brazil but no South American horse has truly shown top form in Europe, no hope
8) Haya Landa - 5th last year will do well to better that
9) Pirika - Tough consistent older mare but not good enough
10) Flintshire - Ground a massive concern for a horse who's Trainer/Jockey have both said he cannot handle cut
11) Leading Light - Just cannot have him at all, a average St Leger winner who I don't think has the pace
12) Ocavango - At the start of the year was Fabre's big hope & after everything he has still made it. Stopped for a run at crucial stages in his last 2 races he is bound to come on for his Niel run & will love the ground. My idea of the winner
13) Penglai Pavilion - Improving on soft ground at a lower level & is the chosen Godolphin SNC hope trying to follow Cavalryman & Masterstroke with a placed effort, could well hit the frame
14) Kizuna - The best hope from Japan for me who hopefully won't bounce after his trial win after 4 months off, really nice horse
15) Ruler Of The World - Needs race run to suit just him slow pace & ridden close to the pace so he can repel all comers, can't see that in an Arc unless they sacrifice Leading Light even if that happens he just is not good enough
16) Sahawar - Who???
17) Intello - Loved this horse at the start of the season & thought he was a likely Arc winner, seems to have been messed about. Trainer's also making worrying noises about his stamina.
18) Treve - Classy filly who shows a potent turn of foot a danger to all even if this is her hardest test against colts
My Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe 1-2-3:
1) Ocavango
2) Novellist
3) Kizuna
The rest of Longchamp's card is fantastic especially considering it only cost 8 euros to get in something this country could really learn from.
The Qatar Prix de L'Abbaye Group 1 is a bloody tough race, a high draw is usually a nightmare which is a shame for the Tommy Stack trained Cape Of Approval who loves soft ground yet is drawn 18! Sole Power will surely struggle on the ground as will Reckless Abandon who has a 16 draw to contend with. Dutch Masterpiece is an improving young sprinter but this by far his toughest assignment Mirza won the trial for this well he dead heated with Dibajj, the ground should be perfect for him & he rates a player. Catcall also has a big race in him but he really needs to be held up till the last possible moment as he pulls up in front.
Mirza is a solid option for me.
The Total Prix Marcel Boussac Group 1 looks an excellent renewal with 3 unbeaten french fillies lining up in Veda, Lesstalk In Paris & Royalmania. Of the 3 I was most impressed with Lesstalk In Paris & she will do for me.
The colts Group 1 is a little weaker & misses Outstrip, I have seen Karakontie's last 2 wins which he has shown a good level of ability in so he can take the step up to Group 1 winner.
I am incredibly keen on Silasol in The Prix De L'Opera back on the scene of her Marcel Boussac success last year & back at her favourite trip she is overpriced.
Moonlight Cloud should win the Foret with little fuss & in the finale the consistent Les Beaufs is another to be overpriced.
Selections for this weekend:
Saturday
13:30 Longchamp Qatar Prix Chaudenay Group 2
Nearly Caught E/W 12/1 Bet365
14:40 Ascot Cumberland Lodge Stakes Group 3
Gospel Choir WIN 5/1 Boylesports
15:15 John Guest Bengough Stakes Group 3
Music Master E/W 10/1 Bet365 / Boylesports
15:50 Betfred Goals Galore Challenge Cup Handicap
Ascription WIN 8/1 Stan James / William Hill
Pastoral Player E/W 15/1 William Hill
Sunday
12:45 Longchamp Qatar Prix De L'Abbaye Group 1
Mirza E/W 16/1 or PMU Paddy Power / Boylesports / Sportingbet
14:30 Prix De L'Opera Longines Group 1
Silasol WIN 8/1 Paddy Power
15:15 Longchamp Qatar Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe Group 1
Ocavango E/W 33/1 Stan James / Coral / William Hill
17:10 Longchamp Qatar Prix Du Cadran Group 1
Les Beaufs WIN 6/1 Bet365 / Stan James / Paddy Power
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