After all the pontificating throughout the last few weeks & especially within the last week (including myself); QIPCO British Champions Day is here but however much in the last few days the corporate boys have tried to say its a scintillating day the numbers & ticket sales don't lie. Having checked the Ascot website before starting this blog you can still purchase up to 10 tickets for both the Premier (£55!! Extremely steep) & Grandstand (£30 normally these tickets would be £16 for the same facilities) enclosures so nowhere near sold out unlike the last 2 years.
In the last week alone I have received 6 different emails with various 10% to 20% offers for discounted tickets for the day again hardly indicative of a top class race day if there desperately trying to sell tickets, maybe the price in the first place should be lower.
I live 7 mins from the course but I have no interest in going this year after experiencing last year's wondrous day's racing I don't think this year could compare especially on bad ground & not racing; of yes good quality but not championship quality.
However much 'spin' is used by the marketing gurus this meeting has not yet captured the imagination of the general public & it is clearly suffering from the lack of a 'superstar' which shows how lucky the organisers were to have 'Frankel' in the first 2 years.
Having discussed this at great length earlier in the week I do not wish to go into anymore detail as to why I feel Champions Day & the series needs re-jigging (check out that blog: Future Champions Day / Champions Series: What can be done to improve the event?)
With the ground still soft it may well be very sticky as it has been dry for 2 days now although it could still rain overnight so bare that in mind.
British Champions Day kicks of with the strangely titled Long Distance Cup (surely Champion Stayers Cup would be better?). As a race it is an ok staying event which really should be Estimate's for the taking she is unbeaten in 3 starts at the Berkshire track including the Gold Cup & has beaten the majority of these, she should also handle ease being by Monsun. Ahzeemah is a model of consistency who goes on any ground he will be very hard to keep out of the 3.
Honestly the rest of the field is unimpressive Aiken has been out of form this year, Caucus a decent animal at a lower grade, Biographer has disappointed me all season but back on genuine soft ground he could bounce back & start fulfilling his potential, Harris Tweed is on a Hat-trick after 2 wins at Goodwood but has been exposed in this grade before, High Jinx just doesn't seem to win, Royal Diamond won a weal Irish Leger last year & has been exposed since, Saddler's Rock has never gone on from his 3yo promise & will hate the ground, Pale Mimosa is unexposed who could sneak a place & finally Eye Of The Storm who only has one eye & is on the improve but I suspect he really would prefer a bit better ground up in grade.
How anyone can say the pretentiously titled Champions Sprint is a top class race like they did earlier on RUK clearly needs glasses or there head testing. Yes of course we have not had great sprinters since the 90's when the likes of Piccolo, Owington, Lake Coniston (see video below), So Factual (see 2nd video), Lochsong, First Trump, Branston Abby, Hever Golf Rose, Titus Livius, Pivotal, Anabaa & Mind Games ran against each other in all the big sprints so most sprints nowadays are full of handicappers its just that tomorrow's race is all handicappers & not even that classier ones.
Only 2 of tomorrow's 14 runners can be classed as genuine Group performers the soft ground loving Maarek & the excellent Slade Power. The others are just handicappers who can occasionally win at a lower Group Level its a real shame for this race that both Clive Cox's crack sprinters were retired early & that Mike De Kock did not see fit to enter Shea Shea not a good omen for this race's future.
Anyway on the ground Maarek (see below) should retain his crown for all I love Slade Power the ground may just hinder him more.
The fillies & mares event is also lacking although yes some will say the 'Oaks' winner is in it & that she was 2nd in the Leger...the 'Oaks' however has proved to be disappointing & the Leger was a very average renewal. Dalkala bounced back to form last time winning the Prix De L'Opera its her time of year so she has to be feared as does The Lark who has her ground & after winning the Park Hill her confidence must be high, she is a nice filly.
Belle De Crecy was enterprisingly ridden by man of the season Murtagh last time but will not find it so easy tomorrow. Waila could be anything as she is lightly raced although she was beaten quite easily in the Ribblesdale in her only previous attempt at Group company. Hot Snap has a lot to do for me on form as does the German raider Nymphea & Seal Of Approval needs to show she is over her horrible fall at Doncaster last time.
Lastly the Champion South African mare Igugu (see below) takes her chance which is encouraging as I thought her last run over an inadequate mile last time was fair, tomorrow is her trip, she has form on soft in South Africa & on breeding it should not inconvenience either. At the prices I may take a chance on her.
The QEII is competitive but would you expect anything else for the money? 2000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach heads the betting & after his break he should be tuned up for his final start before retiring but whether he wants soft sticky ground is another matter. Olympic Glory will go on the ground but is incredibly overrated & it will be a poor edition of the QEII if he can win it. Maxios beat him fair & square in France last time, he must have a fantastic opportunity for another Group 1 tomorrow.
Soft Falling Rain (see below) is a horse I love he was so impressive at Newmarket last time & I thought he would take all the beating in this race but the ground is the big issue, he has no form on it & on breeding will struggle. He is however a very tempting price in the hope that he just might be classy enough to cope.
Of the others I would be gutted if Gordon Lord Byron or Top Notch Tonto could win a QEII but i understand why connections are running them as if any of the top horses fail to perform, then a £600,000 race is up for grabs, I can't see Gordon Lord Byron staying but I could see Top Notch Tonto (see below) picking up 3rd or 4th.
The main event of British Champions Day is of course The QIPCO Champion Stakes, in Cirrus Des Aigles (see below), Farhh & Mukhadram we have 3 top class animals unfortunately the rest of the field are not.
Old Cirrus bolted up last time & appears to have come right for this race, the ground will suit but I would really hope that at least 1 or 2 of the others has more improvement than a 7 year old gelding for all he is a fabulous horse.
Farhh (see video above) returns after his stunning Lockinge success back in May, to me he has always wanted soft ground & if he is anywhere near is best then he must go close.
Mukahadram has been one of my favourite horses for a long time & he has become the horse I thought he could be this year with swashbuckling performances from the front in top races this year, he has been primed for this since his win in the Skybet York Stakes back in July. The only issue for me is a slight doubt on the ground, he was 2nd on very soft ground once as a 3 year old so I would hope as a bigger stronger horse he would cope.
He is the only front runner in the race so it could be The Prince Of Wales's (see video above) all over again just hopefully for me not getting caught on the line.
We have course have an English Derby winner in the race in Ruler Of The World woohoo!!......but its been proved since that he was not a good Derby winner so I can't understand the shortening of his price after being soundly beaten in the Arc also I don't believe he'll have the pace for 1m2f even on soft ground.
Hillstar has been thrown in at the deep end since his Royal Ascot win & has had his limitations exposed in this grade. The French duo both have chances if only because of the ground Triple Threat is a very good horse but whether he is this class I'm unsure I'd be more keen on Morandi who has been running well on less than ideal ground all summer, he won a Group 1 on awful ground last backend & also had the class to finish 2nd to Intello in the French Derby in June, I can easily see him being tipped up tomorrow.
Parish Hall has not been the same horse since injury, Main Sequence is a rogue & you know some may say I'm mad but I could Hunter's Light running above himself, he handles the ground, is a Group 1 performer admittedly on the continent but only needs a couple to perform below par & he's right in the mix especially since he looked like he would bolt up in The Arlington Million in the summer before clipping heels.
In short I love Mukhadram & have backed him ante post at the bigger prices so I hope he wins. I may also have a saver on Hunter's Light at big odds.
In the last at Ascot the apprentice handicap (odd race for Champions Day) I will split my stakes on Breton Rock & good old Sir Reginald.
Cheltenham returned today with a decent day's racing & Saturday's is equally as good, I would imagine Easter Meteor (see below) for the bang in form Emma Lavelle team must be a stonking bet to go one better than her 2nd place in the 2m4f Handicap Chase at 14:35 off 8lbs higher. I am also a fan of Kings Palace for David Pipe in the opening novice hurdle.
The other race I will be watching closely takes place at 07:45 am UK time on Attheraces, The BMW Caulfield Cup; my strong ante post Melbourne Cup fancy Waldpark (seen below winning German Derby in 2011) gets the first opportunity since being in Australia to run over 1m4f.
I have been speaking to one of his owners weekly over the last 2 months & all involved including his trainer are expecting a really bold showing under his new rider Brenton Avdulla who worked him for the first time this week.
Anthony Freedman expects Waldpark ‘will run his best race this prep’
A strong piece of work on the course proper confirmed trainer Anthony Freedman’s expectation that Waldpark would produce his best Australian performance in Saturday’s Group I Caulfield Cup (2400m). Waldpark was ridden for the first time by Saturday’s race jockey Brenton Avdulla and after striding off from the 1600m went three-quarter pace until the home straight where he reeled off the last 400m in 22.58 seconds.
"The horse did what we wanted. I was happy and more importantly, Brenton Avdulla was pleased with the horse," Freedman said. "He likes the horse, he wants to be on the horse and you need that going into a race like this."
Avdulla confirmed what Freedman watched and reported the German import gave him the feel of a good horse.
"He felt like a good horse,” Avdulla said. "Anthony just told me to give him a nice hitout and to join his mate inside the last furlong and if you can put it away, do it.
"He did that and pulled up really well. I’m very happy to be on him Saturday”
At the prices I have to be with Waldpark in what appears to be a very strong renewal featuring 9 Group 1 winners.
Favourite Hawkspur has been drawn wide which according to my Australian friend is a real hard place to win from at Caulfield so that knocks out Dear Demi, Dandino (Marco Botti's American St Leger winner who is just below Group 2 class in this country), Mr O'Ceirin, Moriarty, Julienas (Walter Swinburn's former Hunt Cup winner) & Ethiopia.
Silent Achiever (see below) is the one I fear most as she has been coming along nicely finishing just in behind horses on her last 2 starts, being a former NZ Derby winner she will relish today's 1m4f trip.
Old Manighar is a grand old campaigner down under but has a lot on from top weight, Glencadam Gold is not good enough in this grade, Mr Moet has been running ok without troubling the judge recently. Fawkner ran a massive race in the Turnbull on his latest start so will be there at the finish while Jet Away another who ran in the Turnbull has it to prove for me, barely Listed class in this country he impressed on both Australian starts in the spring but I feel will be found out as he now tackles better class animals.
Kellini last year's Melbourne Cup 4th has shown nothing this year, My Quest For Peace formerly with Luca Cumani has shown nothing in his last 4 starts. Royal Descent is a former Australian Oaks winner who has been running over trips short of her best but she was well beaten albeit squeezed up in the Turnbull latest & Tuscan Fire is outclassed.
Old Forgotten Voice still needs 1 to come out to get in so if that happens he may go well.
Its not all about Saturday this weekend as there is an excellent little NH card at Kempton on Sunday highlighted by former Champion Hurdler Rock On Ruby taking on the new kid on the block The New One.
Also running on Sunday; Dodging Bullets makes his chasing debut against Alan King's classy hurdler Turn Over Sivola who might just have more speed than Dodging Bullets. Former smart flat horse Sea Lord is making hay over hurdles now & he goes for his 6th win in a row in the Listed Novices Hurdle.
07:45 Caulfield BMW Caulfield Cup Handicap Group 1
Waldpark 25/1 E/W Skybet / Boylesports / BetVictor / Stan James
Ascot
Estimate & Maarek WIN Double
14:35 Cheltenham Equus-Fine Dining At The Festival Handicap Chase
Easter Meteor WIN Best price available
16:05 Ascot QIPCO Champion Stakes Group 1
Mukhadram 10/1 WIN BetVictor
16:45 Ascot QIPCO Future Stars Apprentice Handicap
Breton Rock 11/1 E/W Paddy Power
Sir Reginald 12/1 E/W Paddy Power
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