This Saturday is billed as 'Future Champions Day' at Newmarket
As part of the Champions Weekend that will be created from next year when this meeting moves to the Friday before QIPCO British Champions Day...one hopes that next year it will live up to the hype as it really doesn't this time around.
Has there ever been as bad a looking a Dewhurst as tomorrow's??
The Challenge Stakes is a Group 2 in name only, The Middle Park is competitive but all the field bar one are are very exposed or just don't have any sort of wow factor.
The grand old staying handicap that is the Betfred Cesarewitch is the real star of the show tomorrow with an excellent field assembled of old campaigners & some new kids on the block plus a rare French raider.
The Dubai Challenge Stakes Group 2 appears not to be the draw it once was with The Prix De La Foret only a week before & the QEII a week behind it, this year's renewal is as bad as I can remember since I've been watching racing considering the rich history of the event with winners like Salse, Selkirk, Harayir, Charnwood Forest & Nayyir, you would be hard pressed to put any of this year's field in their class.
Trumpet Major: barely Group 3 class
Amarillo: Listed - Group 3 at best
Ansgar: average handicapper who has been placed in weak Group races in Ireland
Arnold Lane: Exposed horse who can win very weak Group races on the continent but just handicap class in Britain
Gabriel's Lad: Classy handicapper who I like as a horse but never tried above that grade
Highland Colori: Really he's 8/1 for a Group 2 until his Ayr Gold Cup win he was just an ok handicapper
Libranno: Genuine Group race performer but has found it hard to win recently & is usually caught out by less exposed animals
Lockwood: One of only 2 horses in the race with any real potential twice a Group 3 winner who has been in great form
Darwin: The other with potential but seemed firmly put in his place last time behind Ansgar
Fiesolana: A mare who has enjoyed an excellent season in her grade but will find this tougher against the boys.
The Vision.AE Middle Park has always been the lesser of the 2 autumn Group 1 colts events staged at Newmarket but in recent years has really lacked a star winner Reckless Abandon last year's has not won since, Dream Ahead went on to become a good sprinter while you have to go back to 2002 for any real star horse that was of course Oasis Dream. It is another race that seems to be suffering from a move to a later date or maybe the sprinting 2 year old in recent years just aren't that good.
This year's race is full of good but exposed horses Justice Day, Jallota, Bahamian Heights, Brown Sugar, Green Door. Even the horses coming into the race in good form are relatively exposed or have met each other a few times already Supplicant who holds Hot Streak & Shamshon (ground again may be an issue if the rain comes), Astaire didn't beat anything of note at York & Saayerr has been very inconsistent. Speedfiend is clearly outclassed so that leaves the unbeaten Great White Eagle who could be something & the very consistent since stepped up to Group company Sudirman (see below).
Now to The Dubai Dewhurst Stakes Group 1 which is a terrible edition probably the worst I can recall since Tout Seul's (see below) surprise win in 2002 when he beat a very mediocre field.
Its not even the lack of runners that's the problem tomorrow as back when Alhaarth won his Dewhurst in '95 there were only 4 runners but he beat the previously unbeaten dual Group 1 winner Danehill Dancer & another Group 1 winner in Tagula
No the real problem with tomorrow's race is the lack of quality
How can it be classed as a Championship race when you have no Group 1 winner in the line-up??
War Command is the default favourite on his reputation, trainer & win in the Coventry Stakes the problem is that is now looking like a very sub-standard event, War Command himself was beaten comfortably on his next start in Group 1 company behind Sudirman although he has won a Group race since that was an average race & he is not a top class prospect.
Stormadal was beaten in a handicap last time before that he had won a Carlisle maiden!! Friendship a stablemate of War Command's is not good enough on what he's shown in 8 starts whilst Cable Bay is hopelessly exposed as this level but in a strange way I could see him winning this race similar to Tout Seul or a Milk It Mick. I hope it won't happen though as this looks a golden opportunity for the one horse in the race who looks like he could go on to be a decent animal & that's the lovely moving Outstrip (see below) who is great value in a poor poor Dewhurst.
The Betfred Cesarewitch is the race of the day no doubt & in all honesty I will not waste a long time talking about it as I am sitting in a great position with my 2 ante post bets topping the market. I feel as I did when I backed both Pallasator & Smoky Hill that they have excellent chances & have no reason to change my opinion's now. Both need some rain although probably for Pallasator (who is bidding to end Sir Mark Prescott's dreadful record in the race under Luke Morris) more than Smoky Hill who has won on Good but I would imagine that having checked the forecast all week that is likely as a band of rain is due to hit Newmarket this evening & into tomorrow morning.
Later on at Newmarket Lightning Thunder should win after a great run at the last meeting behind Miss France the race tomorrow again lacks strength in depth.
Perhaps the most interesting race at Newmarket tomorrow is The Group 3 Autumn Stakes which features unbeaten Kingston Hill, visually impressive last time out maiden winner Mount Logan, last weekend's sales race winner Oklahoma City, God Willing / Nezar who finished in behind Cable Bay (2nd) last time, Safety Check who beat Stormadel comfortably last time out, the imposing Sir Jack Layden who ran 3rd to Berkshire at the last meeting plus the Hannon duo of Pupil & Truth Or Dare.
I was impressed by Mount Logan's maiden win & thought he looked a Group animal that day so I would take him to come out on top.
The final race is an extremely competitive 1m1f Group 3 with 18 runners my current 'cliff' horse Proud Chieftain is capable at this level & was unlucky in the Cambridgeshire last time, I also won't leave Chapter Seven unbacked if the rain comes.
York's final meeting of the year is the other Saturday feature & King Of The Danes may well be a bigger price than he should be after appearing in need of his first outing for 4 months on his latest start, before that he was a young handicapper on the up.
In the big sprint Baccarat must go well & is still a nice price, I think he may well progress into a Group class sprinter next year.
The only other horse I am interested in at York is in the last & that's Lady Cecil's Flow who was most unlucky in a similar big field handicap at Newbury on his last start, he was always travelling in behind the pace but met trouble in running twice before getting out, he has the potential to be better than his mark & should take this last event.
The National Hunt season is starting to get into full swing & Chepstow stages the first big meeting of the season so far tomorrow, watch out for Charlie Longsden's & Emma Lavelle's runners as they have been in stunning form during this week with doubles for both on Wed & Thur.
I like God's Own in Chepstow's 17:15, a nice young horse who was kept away from the big meetings last season & is competitively handicapped. Also I have heard a good word for Harry Fry's Thomas Brown in the closing bumper he was unbeaten in 2 points last season & looks to be a nice horse in the making.
Don't forget to set your Sky+ for some Australian racing tomorrow am on Attheraces. Caulfield stages 2 Group 1's the first The Cathay Pacific Caulfield Stakes at 06:10 UK Time features Atlantic Jewel (see below) as she bids to get back to winning ways after her first defeat last time out she takes on former Irish St Leger 2nd Massiyn.
The Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes (07:20) features the Willie Mullins trained Simenon (see below) taking on the former Sir Micheal Stoute trained Sea Moon who was unluckily disqualified from a Listed race win last week also in the field are the former Andrew Balding trained Goldoni, former A.De Royer-Dupre inmate Kesampour & another former Stoute inmate in Verdant.
The other Group 1 on the card features old timer December Draw & accomplished french handicapper Trevieres trained by Markus Nigge having his first Australian start that race is the David Jones NCF Toorak Handicap Group 1 at 07:55 UK time.
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