The National Hunt season ignites this weekend on the hallowed turf of Prestbury Park as The Open Meeting lights up the dark November days with the hugely competitive Paddy Power Gold Cup tomorrow taking centre stage.
As a race itself its dominated by 7 year old second season chasers as that age group have won 7 of the last 10 renewals. 6 year olds have 2 in the last 10 years with 1 a piece for 8 & 9 year olds. The Pipe family have won 4 in 10 & 9 in total. As a weight range anything between 10-2 - 11-8 have won in the last 10 years with the majority of winners falling between 10-13 - 11-0.
I have had a substantial ante post bet on the Waley-Cohen's Rajdhani Express who is a 6 year old second season chaser to me has all the right credentials having won over the course & distance in a similarly competitive handicap at the Festival he then followed up impressively at Ayr in the Champion Novice Chase. This race has been his target ever since & I firmly believe he is primed to run a massive race.
Of course the race is extremely competitive so there are lots of dangers led by the one I fear most the horse that is likely to be subject of many tipsters over the next 24hrs & that is David Pipe's Ballynagour who absolutely hacked up at Warwick on his first English start last season, I think he found it all to much at Cheltenham next time & in my opinion was always the #1 from his stable for this event. He has a excellent weight & rates a real danger to my hope.
Champion Court is a lovely horse who has not quite done as much as I hoped he would yet has been all the rage for this all week I'm not sure why as yes he does have a good course record but in these better races just seems to get found out by better handicapped rivals.
John's Spirit jumped in at halfway on his last start or at least it seemed that way, its a perilous job opposing a Jonjo O'Neill horse in form but he is stepping up in grade & he was well behind Rajdhani Express at the festival.
Colour Squadron is another frustrating horse for me who again has not won as many races as his ability suggested he should. Last year his jumping was just not up to scratch so that is a real negative for me of course he has had a summer to be worked on & is still young enough to improve, he may well feel like he has been let loose with his featherweight so he could well make the frame at a tidy each way price.
Nicky Henderson runs two others former Champion Chaser Finian's Rainbow who was awful last year can't have him under top weight today & Nadiya De La Vega who I fancied to win last year bit ground went against her, she has chances but its a better race this year. Battle Group was so well handicapped at Aintree is the spring of this year but it remains to be seen whether he is so tomorrow. Hidden Cyclone has been a horse I have followed for a while but he really didn't go on last year & ran a few times when his stables horses weren't right, small field seem to be his bag & his jumping has not always been the best. Of the bigger priced horses I would not be surprised in Astracad runs better then his odds suggest for his excellent local trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies, the horse also has some great course form.
Nigel Twiston-Davies also unleashes another of the yard's stars in the exciting African Gold (see below) who makes his debut over fences in a hot looking staying novice chase which includes the impressive recent Aintree scorer Shutthefrontdoor who jumped with aplomb on that occasion plus the promising Le Bec who also won on chase debut at Uttoxeter. I hope that African Gold can make a winning debut as I think he has the world at his feet in my eyes he is the embryo of a future Gold Cup winner.
In the staying handicap my favourite jumps horse makes his seasonal debut in the shape of Goulanes (see below) who wins the Welsh National this year (you heard it here first!). He'll need his run tomorrow but don't be surprised to see him staying on hand over fist at the death.
The most likely winner for me on the prevailing decent ground would be Tour De Champs down the bottom of the weights although Monbeg Dude ran a race full of promise on seasonal debut over hurdles at Cheltenham's first meeting & I fancied Alvarado last week when he was pulled out so on this better ground he could run into a place.
Another one of my 5 dark horses for the season runs later on the card in & its interesting to see Port Melon make his hurdles debut in The Grade 2, he is held in very high regard & in an uncompetitive affair I think he make a winning debut.
The closing fillies bumper should be fought out between Legacy Gold & Mayfair Music.
Down at Lingfield the creation of the new AWT Championships has clearly caught trainer's attention as what would normally be an average card containing 2 Listed races has attracted some decent quality animals with Darley Stakes 1st / 2nd Highland Knight & Tales Of Grimm (see below)
renewing rivalry plus Sugar Boy & the top handicapper Bancnuanaheirann taking aim in The Churchill Stakes.
The Golden Rose sprint has attracted Hitchens, Zanetto (one of the most gorgeous horses you will see)
Hawkeyethenoo, my old friend Tiddliwinks & Tangerine Trees. On old AWT form old Tiddliwinks (see below) must have a great chance from a fantastic draw tomorrow if any of his ability remains.
The action continues at Cheltenham on Sunday with more fantastic fayre on offer with the highlight being The Greatwood Handicap Hurdle.
The winning machine that has been Sea Lord (see below) takes on the best animals he has faced so far in the Sybet Supreme Trial in the shape of The Liquidator & Lac Fontana. I expect his flat speed to count & he can win again don't be surprised if he is tried in a much higher grade after this if the ground stays good or no worse than good to soft something like a Christmas Hurdle appeals to me.
Another newly renamed Novice event follows in the shape of the Arkle Trial how much bearing it has next March remains to be seen. It looks a match between Dodging Bullets (a winner of the novice hurdle on this card last year) who made a successful debut at Kempton & Raya Star who jumped well & battled to the line at Uttoxeter. Raya Star is a better horse to me & I think he can enhance his reputation.
Sire De Grugy (see below) can make hay while the champ stays away & is much the best horse in the Shloer Chase.
The big race perhaps lacks a real topnotcher of recent years making their seasonal debut think the likes of Menorah, Khyber Kim, Sizing Europe & Rooster Booster but is no less competitive because of it.
Court Minstrel had been well talked up before his seasonal debut at Ascot recently but was most disappointing behind Pine Creek. I would expect much better today but he will have to be on top form from his big weight especially as another of my Dark horses; Dell' Arca makes his English debut after changing hands for big money in the summer, he has been well backed in recent days.
Flaxen Flare runs well in these big handicaps but I doubt Sunday is the day for him this season. Cash And Go (see below) was my big bet in this last year & was just denied I with many others then followed him over a cliff throughout last year he was quite simply disappointing. On his Irish form he is still incredibly well handicapped as he was a Grade 1 two years ago & its not surprising he is towards the head of the market again especially as I think last year's race was better than this year's renewal. The more I think about I am likely to jump off that cliff once more.
Kalann was a decent hurdler last year but has been on the sidelines since, he had a pipe opener on the flat recently so he may well be primed to run a big race. L'Unique a Grade 1 winning Juvenile last season faces a tough task against the boys. Of the others Tanerko Emery made Raya Star pull out all the stops at Uttoxeter on his Chase debut & reverts back to hurdles on Sunday, its an odd step to me as I thought he made a pleasing chase debut.
Saturday
14:30 Cheltenham Paddy Power Gold Cup
Rajdhani Express 10/1 WIN / E/W
15:10 Best Odds at Bookmakers.co.uk Golden Rose Stakes Listed
Tiddliwnks 6/1 WIN
Sunday
15:15 Cheltenham StanJames.com Greatwood Handicap Hurdle
Cash And Go 13/2 Win
Dell' Arca 12/1 E/W
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