Dubai International Racing Carnival Night 6: Preview

Hello & welcome along to my preview of Night 6 from the the Dubai International Racing Carnival, the quality of the action at this season's Carnival is the best I can remember & this coming Thursday is no exception, the features are The Firebreak, The Al Shindagha Sprint & The UAE 2000 Guineas. Last week showed that Saeed Bin Suroor is now on the march & it would not surprise me to see Saeed & Silvestre climb above there Godolphin teammates Charlie Appleby & Mikael Barzalona in their respective championships. 

The night kicks off with a packed 16 runner 10f Tapeta handicap, old Busker after a string of good efforts now finds himself top of the handicap which in itself will be enough to prevent him adding to his wins but he is unlikely to be far away. I wouldn't even be considering Chapter Seven (surface), Interpret (too high in weights), Auditor (high in the weights & distance a worry), Layali Al Andalus (consistent but always finds one too good), Specific Gravity (out of form), Red Dubawi (distance & surface) & Start Right (a rogue).
Energia Davos ran a decent first race in Dubai this year coming from off the pace to grab 3rd behind the impressive Cat O'Mountain & Haafaguinea, he has to be respected on Thursday. 
Tha'ir is the model of consistency, he switches to a synthetic surface for the first time in his racing career on Thursday which is intriguing as all Godolphin horses work on a very similar surface at Al Quoz so he should handle it fine however his draw has not been kind. Manchester represents Norwegian trainer Neils Petersen, his form has suddenly took off in Scandinavia winning his last two races in succession at Taby & Jagerso, both races were on the dirt surfaces at those courses, whether he will like Tapeta is another matter entirely. 
Sanshaawes went into many notebooks on his Carnival debut pulling very hard & keeping on well, distance should not inconvenience this Group 1 placed animal but my doubt is the surface, he has no form on it & his sire was a limited turf horse in the UK & Ireland. Winterlude from Charlie Appleby's branch of Godolphin has been my idea of a Carnival winner for sometime, 2 from 2 on synthetics he still should have plenty of maneuverability from his mark. Fantastic Moon has basically been disappointing for a while now & I don't see the switch to synthetic helping here, while Plantagenet who has won at the last 2 Carnivals is definitely on a competitive mark & after an excellent first run a few weeks ago looks a real player in this.

Good race in which I will play Plantagenet E/W 12/1 Bet365 / SkyBet / Paddy Power B.O.G & Winterlude 3/1 WIN Paddy Power B.O.G, a reverse forecast on both appeals

The 2nd Classic of the UAE season is up next in the shape of the 2000 Guineas, it looks another straight right between the boys in blue & the man from South Africa. Godolphin introduce their 2 big imported Australian hopes in this; Paximadia (see photos winning Sandown Guineas & working at Al Quoz) who is the winner of 4 races from 8 starts down under, 

his last start was a win in the Sportingbet Sandown Guineas Group 2, as a Juvenile he was beaten 3 times by Australia's new sprinting star Zoustar & Long John (see video & photo),

who is the winner of 5 races from 8 starts & was last seen finishing 9th in Australia's premier weight for age race The Cox Plate before that he was an impressive winner of the Beck Caulfield Guineas Group 1, he was one of Australia's Top 3 year olds last season. Both horses have been working on the similar Tapeta surface at Godolphin's base but on Breeding only 1 in my book will handle it & that is Long John as he is by Street Cry, my sources tell me he is doing very well whereas Paximadia has taken a bit longer to acclimatize. 
As with any Godolphin import from Oz they are not always immediately successful in Dubai but I believe Long John is a pretty decent animal so hopefully he can buck the trend.
Godolphin's other runners are the 1st & 2nd from the trial, Emirates Flyer (first photo) & Safety Check (bottom photo)

 however both have been deserted by the first choice Godolphin jocks on Thursday which is a good indication that the Australian pair are believed to be better, thats not to say they can't win but in all honesty I don't believe Emirates Flyer is good enough in this grade or that he will stay so I would expect Safety Check to turn the form around.
Mike De Kock saddles 3 runners with impressive Yarmouth debut winner Wednaan (seen in photo as a yearling)
  

the pick of Soumillion, he was well supported in the market that day & looked a powerful sort who needed all of the 6f to get on top. It is a different preparation for a De Kock runner but he is respected. I liked Full Combat's run in the trial staying on late after being outpaced, this trip will suit better & should have come on for that, his draw is not great but I assume Hanagan will drop him out & hope to come with a run. Journeyman has been well beaten in both UAE starts. The other runners are outclassed in my book.

Very interesting race in which I like Full Combat 8/1 WIN Bet365 / BetVictor B.O.G with Long John & Wednaan to chase him home.

A 9f Turf handicap follows the Guineas in which Gabrial is out once more, with Gale Force Ten & recent Jebel Ali Mile winner Forjatt keeping the weight down giving him a live chance of winning again. His hold up style means a draw of 13 is no hardship to him & I would expect him to go very close. 

I would hope for a much better run from Code Of Honor who was quite disappointing last time out. Elleval is a good horse but has always seemed better on synthetic Tapeta perhaps a more potent challenger from the Emerald Isle will be Captain Joy who is adept on both surfaces although in my eyes lacks Gabrial's class. 

Mickdaam has not been seen out since Camelot's Derby in 2012 so it will be some training performance to get this former Al Bastikiya & Chester Vase winner back into the winner's enclosure after so long out, his stable companions are the talented but roguish El Estruendoso who is even worse off with Gabrial on Thursday & Vercingetorix (see photo)

who was a crack 3 year old in South Africa last season last seen winning the Daily News 2000 Grade 1 (see video) described as a ‘TRUE Warrior’, “Had the line come a stride later, Vercingetorix would’ve been beaten,” said Tellytrack’s Nico Kritsiotis moments after a nail-biting finish in which Vercingetorix managed to hold on from a low-flying No Worries, with Capetown Noir and Wylie Hall also right in the mix. 

His next start should have been the Durban July De Kock said “We weren't happy with the way Vercingetorix pulled up after the Daily News, which was a first concern. Secondly, as stated after the Daily News, we were worried about the extra 200m he'd have to take on in the July. We consulted with his owner, Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Maktoum, who is in full agreement and supports our decision.” It will be fascinating to see how this clearly useful animal gets on after so long off, he seems incredibly well handicapped on his South African form.

Gale Force Ten won't stay, Forjatt is harshly handicapped, Al Waab is out of form as is So Beautiful & Daddy Long Legs (needs to be retired) & Starboard showed very little last time while Tarbawi who is nothing if not consistent might find racing against Gabrial & Vercingetorix a little tougher than normal. 

Another fascinating race with all eyes on the South African horse but I think Gabrial 13/2 WIN Coral B.O.G if his mind stays on the game can win from Captain Joy & an encouraging run from Vercingetorix.

The Group 3 Firebreak Stakes on Tapeta comes up next named after one of my favourite Godolphin horses who I was lucky enough to be able to meet at Al Quoz when I visited Dubai in 2005 (see photo). 

In truth we have been spoilt in the Group races recently but this is a disappointing field, Snowboarder (see photo, nearest) is a much better animal on synthetics

& ran well in all the 3 year old races at last year's Carnival, he has been working impressively at home, he is expected to go very close. 

Haatheq has been running at Jebel Ali so far this season & back at the track where he finished second to Soft Falling Rain in last season's Godolphin Mile, he has to be respected in a weak renewal. 

Mars has always been a massive talking horse after his maiden win on Dundalk's polytrack, he ran ok races in the 2000 Guineas, Derby, St Jame's Palace & Eclipse but when dropped to Group 3 company on his final start he still could not win, as with most Coolmore horses that transfer there is a reason behind it so whether Mars can go on is debatable but on a synthetic surface might be where he can win again so it will be interesting to see how he goes. 

Colmar Kid makes his Meydan debut after a string of good efforts at Jebel Ali most recently behind Forjatt so he would not have to improve much to take a hand. 

Two times South African Horse of The Year Variety Club (see photo) makes his UAE debut,

his trainer is Joey Ramsden son of the legendary gambler Jack Ramsden; Variety Club has been at the top of his game in South Africa winning numerous Group 1's including the last 2 runnings of the Queen's Plate (see 2013 win in video),

 according to his trainers blog he has been training well (see photo below) & is ready for a run, the only doubt & a major one at that is his ability to handle the Tapeta which he has never raced on, once again it will be fascinating to see how he gets on.

Empire Storm reunited with the master Kieran Fallon could well be facing his best chance of winning in Dubai, he was hopelessly outclassed last week but back in this grade with less runners he could well dominate from the front. 

Fulbright also has a much better chance in this race although I wonder whether he will get a decent pace to run at if Fallon dictates on Empire Storm whereas Mufarrh has been really out of form in recent starts similar comments apply to Capital Attraction although if either of them bounced back it would not be the biggest surprise.

Not the strongest Group race of the Carnival so far in which once again all eyes will be on a South African animail this time there 2 times Horse of The Year. I won't have a bet but I think Empire Storm from the front with Snowboarder & Variety Club chasing him home. 

The Group 3 Al Shindagha Sprint over 6f on the Tapeta is up next & is quite possibly the race of the night. United Color returns to the scene of his comfortable Dubawi Stakes win in which he beat Russian Soul, Rafeej, Balmont Mast, Kryton Factor & Farmleigh House who all reoppose on Thursday, I cannot really see how given the normal improvment rate between races that any of them can beat United Color so maybe a bigger challenge will come from the new contenders; Jamesie steps out of a decent win in a handicap last time but has it all to do in this, as does Pearl Flute who steps back in trip after a good run in the Al Bastakiya on Turf, the surface must be a doubt for him. Tamaathul & Roi Du Vitesse are outclassed. Intransigent showed nothing on his UAE debut so you would be hoping for a much better run this time albeit in a much hotter race, his draw is much more favourable on Thursday so I think he could go ok at a price. 

Giant Sandman (see photo) has been a decent sprinter at minor Group level in Scandinavia

 & finally made the breakthrough outside of Sweden / Norway when winning the Group 2 Goldene Pitsche Group 2 at Baden baden last year (see photo below), on breeding he has chances of going on the Tapeta so is not discounted.

 Godolphin introduce another antipodean import this time in the shape of Bello (see photo)

who has won 8 races from 26 starts down under, his last run was a short head defeat at Caulfield last October, he was a decent Australian sprinter but no more than that so this a big step up for him, the surface should not hinder him as his sire's (Exceed And Excel) progeny have a very decent record on synthetics. Godolphin's other runner is another Australian import Complicate who has already run in Dubai, he was disappointing that day & looked a hard ride as he had several times down under, his form is slightly below that of Bello so I can't see either of these animals figuring in this hot race.

Now after the prices have been released I cannot believe United Color is as big as he is so he is a bet 6/1 WIN Totesport / Betfred / Paddy Power B.O.G

The final race of the night is a 12f Turf handicap in which I have a strong fancy for Dabadiyan who ran a excellent race last time over far too short a trip behind Sheikhzayadroad who he reposes on Thursday, the weights favour Dabadiyan more on Thursday & I expect a bold show. Sheikhzayadroad can't be discounted as he has a good amount of ability & I would expect him to be in there fighting especially with Meandre running in this handicap as it has suppressed the weights. 

The aforementioned Meandre steps into handicap for the first time in his career, a 4 time Group 1 winner albeit 3 of the 4 races would not be upto normal Group 1 standard & the Grand Prix De Saint Cloud he won beating Shareta, Galikova & Danedream when all 3 of those top fillies had excuses. He has had a run in Dubai when disappointing behind Ralston Road on Tapeta, I just can't see him winning this with the weight & draw. 

Empoli is next in at the weights as he makes he Carnival debut, both he & Meandre were involved in that sensational race The Preis Von Europa (see video below) when they were both disqualified after finishing 1st & 2nd, Empoli only has a maiden win to his name but a produced a string of decent efforts last season, he was disappointing in the German Derby but went on to be 2nd in The Grosser Preis Von Bayern Group 1, 4th behind Novellist in the Grosser Preis Von Baden Group 1 & his disqualified 2nd to Meandre. He is entitled to improve as a 4 year old & is respected from his inside draw, the thinking is though that he will need his first run.

Zip Top runs again after an ok first run back after over a year off, that was on Tapeta so back on Turf should suit this big powerful good looking horse but on breeding I doubt the distance is what he needs. Buckwheat is an unexposed ex french colt who won a Listed Race last June before stepping up in Grade in which he made very little impact, again he is entitled to improve as a 4 year old so it will be interesting to see how he fares. The final Godolphin runners are the useful Songcraft who was disappointing towards the end of last season after winning a Listed handicap at York earlier in the season, I imagine he will most likely need this & the disappointing Adroitly who was an ex Australian animal who struggled in Europe & at last season's Carnival.

Bank Of Burden, Dormello Tanfeeth, Topclas & Vasily all look outclassed in this very decent closing contest. Aussie Reigns was second to Shekihzyadroad 2 starts back finishing in front on my selection Dabadiyan, he will struggle to get near the action in this much better race but is a good marker for the form so I would think 4th or 5th would be a good result for him over a trip that just stretches him. 

Massively keen on Dabadiyan 8/1 WIN Bet365 B.O.G for this from Sheikhzayadroad & Empoli

@fttfracing