Hello & welcome along to my second blog of the week, the #DWCC14 has its first double meeting of the year this week as well as today's action there is a meeting on Saturday for which the entries are now through. Saturday's meeting as a whole is less competitive than most Carnival meetings so if you're a first timer to the Carnival than it could well be the meeting for to get involved.
Race 1 is a 10f Tapeta handicap with only 6 runners so it will be tactical with no obvious front runner, Mickdaam heads the field after his lacklustre return from a long absence, the surface will hold no fears for him as he won the Al Bastikiya 3 years ago.
Old Ottoman Empire gained a deserved win last time under a canny ride & looks the one most likely to do the business again on Saturday as I can see his astute jockey taking charge of the race & making all.
Busker has been a revelation this year until last time out which suggests the handicapper has although this small field will help him. Samurai Sword was most disappointing last time after inexplicably going to the lead, he is much better than that but I don't believe a slow tactical race is what he requires. Plantagenet has run two great races so far this year & one poor one, his best races have come in strongly run affairs so this small field will not play to his strengths. Tanfeeth completes the line up, a decent horse in his grade this does represent the least competitive race he has contested for a few weeks but even allowing for the drop back in trip looking likely to suit he will still struggle.
Old Ottoman Empire gained a deserved win last time under a canny ride & looks the one most likely to do the business again on Saturday as I can see his astute jockey taking charge of the race & making all.
Busker has been a revelation this year until last time out which suggests the handicapper has although this small field will help him. Samurai Sword was most disappointing last time after inexplicably going to the lead, he is much better than that but I don't believe a slow tactical race is what he requires. Plantagenet has run two great races so far this year & one poor one, his best races have come in strongly run affairs so this small field will not play to his strengths. Tanfeeth completes the line up, a decent horse in his grade this does represent the least competitive race he has contested for a few weeks but even allowing for the drop back in trip looking likely to suit he will still struggle.
A non betting race in which I can see old Ottoman Empire winning again from Plantagenet & Mickdaam.
A 7f Tapeta Handicap is up next, it looks a good race on paper & it should allow top weight Free Wheeling (seen in photo in his Australian days) the chance to gain a Carnival win, never suited by how the race was run last week or by a return to Turf his form before that is rock solid & he can take this from a great draw.
Tamarkuz looks one to be wary of due to his antics at the start & during a race so I would rather watch him then bet on him.
Ocean Tempest bounced right back to form last week behind the impressive Avon Pearl, he must now back that up which is possible but Saturday's draw is no help.
Qatoomah showed nothing last time & will struggle again as will Van Rooney, Yaa Wayl (poor draw), Derbass, Mister Big Shuffle, Kaiss & Banna Boirche.
Godolphin introduce new signing Well Acquainted a decent handicapper verging on Listed class in the UK who handles a synthetic surface fine, clearly being the mount of Martin Lane on Saturday they expect him to just miss the mark, the draw is a hinderance to a horse who races close to the pace as well. The other Godolphin runner is Dragon Falls who has disappointed twice now so he is best watched. Bannock returns to the fray after a few months off, he has always been raced freely & highly tried but has not won since The Rockingham Stakes at York in 2011, the switch back to Tapeta should help this son of Bertolini but on the face of it he will probably need this.
Ocean Tempest bounced right back to form last week behind the impressive Avon Pearl, he must now back that up which is possible but Saturday's draw is no help.
Qatoomah showed nothing last time & will struggle again as will Van Rooney, Yaa Wayl (poor draw), Derbass, Mister Big Shuffle, Kaiss & Banna Boirche.
Godolphin introduce new signing Well Acquainted a decent handicapper verging on Listed class in the UK who handles a synthetic surface fine, clearly being the mount of Martin Lane on Saturday they expect him to just miss the mark, the draw is a hinderance to a horse who races close to the pace as well. The other Godolphin runner is Dragon Falls who has disappointed twice now so he is best watched. Bannock returns to the fray after a few months off, he has always been raced freely & highly tried but has not won since The Rockingham Stakes at York in 2011, the switch back to Tapeta should help this son of Bertolini but on the face of it he will probably need this.
Very hopeful that Free Wheeling can win this.
A tight looking 6f Turf handicap is the next race on Saturday's card it features runaway President's Cup winner Nawwaar who is an Abu Dhabi specialist so the return to Meydan & a 6f trip he has never won it are negatives.
Smart UK sprinter Glass Office (see photo below) ran some fine races as a 3 year old last season 5th in the Wokingham Handicap & 4th in the King George Stakes at Goodwood, as a 4 year old I think he will be a sprinter to follow & if if his fully tuned up for this must go well especially as the rest of the field are inherently beatable or just not good enough Dux Scholar (out of form), Kavanagh (easiest task to date but out of form), Roicead, Seachantach, Silver Ocean & Take Ten (not in the same class as the top two)
Smart UK sprinter Glass Office (see photo below) ran some fine races as a 3 year old last season 5th in the Wokingham Handicap & 4th in the King George Stakes at Goodwood, as a 4 year old I think he will be a sprinter to follow & if if his fully tuned up for this must go well especially as the rest of the field are inherently beatable or just not good enough Dux Scholar (out of form), Kavanagh (easiest task to date but out of form), Roicead, Seachantach, Silver Ocean & Take Ten (not in the same class as the top two)
Glass Office is taken to win this first time up & is a sprinter to follow for the coming season.
An 8f Tapeta handicap follows with just the 8 runners so another compact race in which it must give Captain Joy an excellent chance of winning after two runs at the Carnival this year forget last time he is no front runner & the race was run at a crawl pace should be no issue on Saturday so I expect him to go close.
Solar Deity is a decent AWT horse in the UK who hasn't been seen to best effect so far at Meydan finding trouble in both his races so far this smaller field should suit him & he can give Captain Joy most to do.
Capital Attraction could be dangerous is allowed an easy lead but he is very beatable as are old Mufarrh, Zain Shamardal, Disa Leader & Rebel Song. Energizer completes the lineup after bolting on his return to action a month ago over 10f the drop back to the Mile is baffling for this strong staying horse so he cannot be considered at this distance.
Solar Deity is a decent AWT horse in the UK who hasn't been seen to best effect so far at Meydan finding trouble in both his races so far this smaller field should suit him & he can give Captain Joy most to do.
Capital Attraction could be dangerous is allowed an easy lead but he is very beatable as are old Mufarrh, Zain Shamardal, Disa Leader & Rebel Song. Energizer completes the lineup after bolting on his return to action a month ago over 10f the drop back to the Mile is baffling for this strong staying horse so he cannot be considered at this distance.
Captain Joy from Solar Deity for me in this race.
The big race of the night is The Group 3 Nad Al Sheba Trophy a trial for the Dubai Gold Cup:
Jutland: Outclassed
Buckwheat: Ran a race full of promise on UAE debut has some good looking minor French stakes form & is bred to stay this far.
Model Pupil: (see photo) Couldn't cut it with the top stayers in the UK over the last 2 years & has now been sold to Saudi Arabia, he managed to win last time but back in this more exalted company will struggle.
Cavalryman: (see photo) The old boy returns after working well over the last few weeks, he usually needs his first run & was disappointing back in the UK last year.
Saddler's Rock: (see photo) Overall a very disappointing horse who has never gone on as thought from his 3 year old year, not for me.
Without Fear: Not good enough.
Statutory: (see photo (lead horse) 2nd horse is Ihtimal) Good run on first UAE start staying on nearest the finish, will be fitter today & could outrun big odds.
Moment In Time: Odd race for her to go for after a run in last week's Balanchine again not for me.
Certerach: (see photo in green colours finishing 3rd) Looks a very good opportunity for this very consistent horse to gain a Group race victory as the race does not feature some of the horses that I was expecting to be contesting it namely his conqueror last time Excellent Result.
Renew: (see photo) Now owned by the Australian syndicate OTI Racing so clearly his long term aim is Down Under at the end of the year. On form the trip looks to pose no problems as he was 3rd in a decent 1m6f handicap at Haydock last year, he won an uncompetitive Listed race at Newmarket easily at the end of last season. Another interesting contender if ready to go.
Simenon: (see photo) Much improved stayer over the last few seasons ending last season with a 4th in the Melbourne Cup & a 5th in the Hong Kong Cup. A danger to all even allowing for the distance being a little short of his best, I expect a good run but surely he will need this.
Star Empire: Good old horse who will run his race & likely make the frame but does face some very interesting younger rivals.
A really interesting staying race in which I like Certerach for the win with Renew, Statutory & Simenon following him home.
The final race of Saturday night is a 10f Turf handicap featuring two recent impressive winners Saxo Jack & Sanshaawes. Both run from the same rating & weight so there should not be much between them, Sanshaawes is Group 1 placed in South Africa whilst Saxo Jack boasts Top Handicap form, of the two I prefer Saxo Jack as a horse, he has a high cruising speed & an excellent turn of foot which is well suited to the Turf course at Meydan.
Of the others favourable mentions can be given the old rogue Start Right who has been mister consistent in these Carnival handicaps this year with 3 creditable placed efforts so far, Aussie Reigns is another consistent animal who will run his race while not being quite good enough to win. Mutajare is decent enough but has been found in this tougher grade on his last few runs similar comments apply to Tarbawi, Regulation, Bank Of Burden, Al Waab & Burano who all find it difficult to win.
Chil The Kite on the other hand has been very disappointing in truth he has not been at the races for me since his highly progressive 3 year old campaign & due to the amount of improvement he showed then as a result & unusually for a Hughie Morrison animal he has been over faced for far too long now which has clearly dented the horses confidence. So Beautiful the final runner in the contest is just a badly out of form animal who has been struggling for some time.
Another interesting handicap in which I will stick with Saxo Jack to beat Sanshaawes from Aussie Reigns.
Of the others favourable mentions can be given the old rogue Start Right who has been mister consistent in these Carnival handicaps this year with 3 creditable placed efforts so far, Aussie Reigns is another consistent animal who will run his race while not being quite good enough to win. Mutajare is decent enough but has been found in this tougher grade on his last few runs similar comments apply to Tarbawi, Regulation, Bank Of Burden, Al Waab & Burano who all find it difficult to win.
Chil The Kite on the other hand has been very disappointing in truth he has not been at the races for me since his highly progressive 3 year old campaign & due to the amount of improvement he showed then as a result & unusually for a Hughie Morrison animal he has been over faced for far too long now which has clearly dented the horses confidence. So Beautiful the final runner in the contest is just a badly out of form animal who has been struggling for some time.
Another interesting handicap in which I will stick with Saxo Jack to beat Sanshaawes from Aussie Reigns.
@fttfracing
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