Curragh Sunday 25/05/2014

Its a Classic Sunday at The Curragh tomorrow with the fillies taking centre stage, the last 2 runnings have been won by English trained fillies (Just The Judge & Samitar). Aidan O'Brien is usually the trainer to look at in these Irish Group 1's so its perhaps surprising that he has only won it 5 times compared to the other races in the calendar that he has dominated. Favourite for this year's renewal is My Titania who was pulled out at newmarket after a slight setback, she her 2 wins are working out well having beaten 2 Group 3 winners & a Listed placed filly. Clearly smart with ground unlikely to be an issue she looks a strong favourite. 
(She is now reportedly a very doubtful runner) 

With the heavy rain of Friday night & more predicted through Saturday it has to be doubtful that Newmarket 2nd Lightning Thunder will run as connections have said all week that she won't be risked on soft ground.

Palace has had 3 quick races this spring, she was reported in season on her last run but still finished 2nd to a classy filly Afternoon Sunlight (who My Titania beat on her 2nd start as a 2yo), respected but this is a tough as on her 4th run in 8 weeks. 

 Stablemate Marvellous beat a subsequent Listed winner on her debut as a 2yo but was not seen again until March this year when well beat behind Bracelet in a 1000 Guineas trial, she needed the run that day & was staying on at the finish, could easily improve enough to be involved but it is a big ask. The 3rd O'Brien runner is Wonderfully, she was well beat on her seasonal return in The French Guineas, she got a slight bump from the winner but nothing to suggest she was unlucky, on her 2yo form she was below top class & I cannot see being good enough here. 

Al Thakira is the size of a pony, she ran well at Newbury before also disappointing at Longchamp, ground will be fine for her I just don't believe that she truly stays the mile. 

Avenue Gabriel is a nice looking filly who improved throughout her 2yo campaign, she ran well on her return behind Bracelet & has not been seen since, place chances. 

Ballybacka Queen's form at 2 ties in with Avenue Gabriel as she was only just denied by her in a Listed race last year, she then followed her compatriot over to Newmarket for the fillies mile but never handled the occasion. She is a big strong filly who will stay further & is the type to make a nice 3yo. Ground is no issue & she ran a nice first race on her return, interesting outsider.

Heart Focus has just ok form as a 2yo, she ran in half a dozen pattern races but didn't make the grade, would need to have improved massively over the winter to get involved in this. 
Queen Of Power easily won her maiden on her last start after finishing 5th in the Guineas trial, well thought of by her small stable she needs to improve but that is possible after just 3 starts. 

Dermot Weld fields to unexposed fillies both owned by Khalid Abdullah, Vote Often; won a Group 3 a her seasonal debut on testing ground beating older fillies, she showed a nice attitude that day & is now ridden by Abdullah stable jockey James Doyle, respected. 

Stablemate Tested has yet to be tested, another beautifully bred filly who has won both her starts in easy fashion, the softer ground should suit its just whether she is up to this on only her 3rd start. 

With the ground having changed & likely to quite testing on Sunday, I like Dermot Weld's Vote Often 9/1 BetVictor / Ladbrokes.
  At an E/W price I will also be backing Ballybacka Queen 25/1 E/W Bet365 / SkyBet who is overpriced.

   

The Tattersalls Gold Cup Group 1 at the 5 day stage looked a tremendous race with 15 entries but as is the norm it has cut up to be no more than a two runner race. 

Magician got up to win on his seasonal debut, it was not impressive but he didn't need to be & he will come on for it whether he will want really soft ground I am unsure but he is by far the best horse in the race & it should not matter much. 

The reformed Noble Mission has been a revelation is his last two starts on soft ground making all both times, he is unlikely to get his own way in front on Sunday with the pacemakers in the field but that should not prove that much of inconvenience & he has a real chance of gaining a first Group 1 success.

Parish Hall has never truly returned to his 2yo best after injury useful at Listed & Group 3 level he is outclassed at the top level. Along Came Casey is a decent older filly but the ground has gone for her on Sunday. 

Hall Of Mirrors & Einsteins Folly are pacemakers for their respective stable companions. Euphrasia has been out of form so far this season & was not much better last year, her biggest win was when she shocked Princess Highway in The Blue Wind 2 years ago. Cardinal Place is out of his depth.

The Gallinule Stakes is a race Aidan O'Brien has farmed in recent seasons winning 12 of the last 17 renewals with horses of varying abilities, only last year's winner Leading Light has actually gone on to win a top class race.

His 3 runners this year are; Adelaide who was 2nd in The Prix Hocquart on his seasonal return at Longchamp the best form on offer in this race by a long way, given normal amount of improvement he should be hard to beat. 

Mekong River a fairly exposed colt at 2 who was well beaten at Lingfield in The Derby Trial, ahead of him that day was Blue Hussar he appeared to struggle round the downhill bend at Leafy Lingers that day but stayed on well enough in the straight to suggest that he could be competitive next time out. Boqa broke his maiden last time at Tipperary but has to improve to get past Blue Hussar who beat him as a 2yo. 

Theophilus won on his debut at Gowran by 9 lengths in very heavy ground over 12 furlongs, the drop back in trip should be fine & if the ground were to become testing at least you know he stays, could be anything but well worth a place in this grade. Stablemate Renaissance Art returns to the track 329 days after beating current Derby hotpot Australia on debut, clearly he has had problems & whether soft ground on his return is what he wants given his American pedigree, fascinating to see how he gets on with a view to Australia. 

Edelmira comes form the hot Weld stable, he won a 9 furlong maiden by 9.5 lengths on debut with his laden stamina coming to the fore, the 2nd & 3rd have both won since. His dam is a half sister to Gold Cup winner Estimate & being Peintre Celebre soft ground should be no trouble yet another interesting contender.

Would not be having a bet in either of the two other Group races, the only other bet I will have at The Curragh on Sunday is the 2:15 Emirates Equestrian Federation Handicap over 6f, it is a cavalry charge with 27 runners & the horse I like will be fancied but he will be worth backing as he has the potential to become a proper decent sprint handicapper in Fozzy Stack's Great Minds a horse I have been following for a while now, he was well backed when beaten in minor maiden races at Navan & Redcar last year but each time he showed the ability to travel, with a winter on his back he is now stronger & duly won first time out this season. Now up 10lbs in a stronger race which should suit him perfectly allowing him the proper toe into the race.      

@fttfracing