Hello & welcome along to my first blog of Glorious Goodwood week, I trust I find you all well. Apologies once again for no blogs last week I was enjoying some much needed r&r with my family, it appears we had the best of the weather as for the whole week it was stunning as we travelled around the country to various relatives from Blackpool to Bakewell to Manchester to Sudbury to Frinton-On-Sea & I even managed to get some racing in at Newmarket last Saturday which was highly successful courtesy of two of my strongest fancies of the weekend First Flight & Bragging winning (Bragging is a seriously good looking big filly who will be in Group company before long).
So I am refreshed & ready to take on 5 days of classy action on the sussex downs.
Day One of Glorious Goodwood opens with a cracking good 1m1f handicap, in recent years any draw bias that Goodwood had previously suffered from has lessened with horses winning from high & low draws in the last 4 years.
Little Tha'ir heads the weights, he returned to the track just under a month ago in a minor Listed event finishing a creditable 3rd, this is much tougher under top weight but his stable are in decent form at present & he is a classy animal who could easily get involved.
Cameron Highland showed little on his seasonal return, all his wins bar one have been in small fields & his handicap form is not wonderful, this is another step along towards winning a 3rd August Stakes at Windsor towards the end of next month.
Sennockian Star has been a star this season & once again ran with credit last time out at York, I can see no reason why he can't be in the shake up at the finish.
Blue Surf is locally trained & finished 8th last year from a higher mark, the return to 10f should help as he struggles to truly get home over 12f so he is another who has potential to get involved. Sea Shanty steps up to a trip that for me is far from certain to suit besides that he is a momentum horse who wins in streaks then disappears for a while, he is off his highest ever mark & will struggle to get involved.
Salutation has missed a couple of engagements lately due to the ground but that could well be a blessing in disguise for this race & for this meeting that over the years his stable do so well at, huge player on his last run at Royal Ascot & needs respecting. Niceofyoutotellme is a horse best caught fresh as his record over the last few seasons suggests after winning first time up he was laid out for the Hunt Cup & ran well enough to finish 9th after getting a few bumps, he is off his highest ever mark & I am unsure if 41 days will make him fresh enough for this test.
Old Wigmore Hall has looked as if ability has left him on his last 3 starts as he is arguably one of the best handicapped horses in training at present on his old form. Ground is better for him this time around but even though his trainer is in reasonable form he has only had 1 winner in 4yo or above races at Goodwood in the last 5 seasons.
Magic Hurricane is an improving 4yo who ran an excellent race in The Old Newton Cup last time on softish ground at Haydock, before that he had showed stamina was his forte over 12f in soft ground also at Haydock. Dropping back in trip does appear odd at first glance but the horse seems tactically versatile & his extremely astute stable would not be doing it unless they believed the horse was capable of handling it, must go extremely well.
Hi There is dropping down the weights slowly but still remains higher than his last winning mark & would prefer softer ground. Viewpoint won this race last year from a mark of 91, with young Cam Hardie taking 5lbs off tomorrow he races off lower than that this year but I would not get too excited as his form has been nothing to shout about since he won on Good Friday at Lingfield until last time out where he did show a little bit more than he had done on his last few starts, wouldn't be the biggest surprise if he got involved.
I'm Fraam Govan hasn't been since last December when he completed a double in useful AW handicaps, he returns to the track after clearly having issues & can only be watched upped to this company on turf. Stomachion looks your typical Sir Michael Stoute improving handicapper, he followed up a dour display at HQ with a staying on 2nd behind a runaway winner at Epsom last time, he should still have more to offer from this mark & is an obvious one to get involved who will shape the market, my query is his draw as he can get behind in his races & he won't want to be doing that from stall 13.
Ajman Bridge is a bit of a character & sometimes ungainly in his run style yet has a decent level of ability, he showed all of those aforementioned characteristics last time at Newbury when only just failing to catch a well ridden winner, should have a race in him off this mark & the hurly burly of an event like this could just suit him.
Busatto has shown little on his last 2 starts but stepping back in trip will help him here & he could easily run better than his odds suggest. Charles Camoin finally took advantage of a reduced mark two starts back but failed to build on that at the weekend, has the ability to get involved but judged on his last run he is best left alone.
Gworn ran ok stepped up to this trip last time out although never looking like truly troubling the leaders, he could go ok from a reduced mark with stable finally amongst the winners in the last few weeks. Tobacco Road would be a surprise winner on his form at present & is best left alone.
Magic Hurricane 7/1 generally available went into the notebook last time & I believe he can cope with the drop in trip, Stomachion is the obvious danger from a lenient looking mark.
The speedy 2yo will be flying down the Goodwood hill in the Molecomb a race in which the Hannon stable have dominated in recent years winning 3 of the last 5 renewals. Impressive recent Sandown scorer Beacon represents the stable this year, he hasn't looked back since his debut reverse & must be a strong fancy to go in again....one word of caution if he gets wound up then don't back him as it happened to him on his debut when he ran no sort of race.
Burning The Clocks is a thrice raced maiden who will need much more in this grade. Cotai Glory was 2nd to the impressive Limato the other week at Newbury over 6f, he has won at Bath this season, he could be overbet for me & give some value to his opponents as I don't think he has the class of some of his rivals.
Dougal was well beaten upped to Group company last time, he is the 2nd string for the Hannon yard & I would be surprised if he was good enough.
Fast Act ran a huge race in the Super Sprint at Newbury, he is still lightly raced & can give the favourite most to do. Mukhmal has 4 lengths to find with Beacon on Sandown running but is fitted with a hood for the first time so if that sparks improvement he still remains with potential for better still. Union Rose was well beaten behind Beacon & Mukhmal last time, she is outclassed in this as the 3rd Hannon runner Spirit Of Xian.
No bet race for me.
The feature event on Day One is the 7f Group 2 Lennox Stakes a race dominated by 3yo's since its inception in 2000,
(7 winners in 13 years).
7 winners in the last 10 years finished no worse than 4th last time out in Group or Listed company.
Jersey Stakes has produced 2 winners in the last 10 years.
(3 since 2000).
Only 1 horse Byron (2004) went on to win this after running in St James's Palace Stakes.
Hannon stable have won 2 renewals in 10 years with Paco Boy & Strong Suit.
The horse this race this year is been made around is Toormore who drops back to 7f after finishing well beaten behind Kingman last time at Royal Ascot, he has been disappointing on his last 2 starts. He is favourite due to 3yo's record in the race, the fact his stable have won the race recently with 2 similar types of horses & that he won at this meeting last year. Of course this is much easier than his last 2 races but it will still take some winning & for me there is no guarantee that Toormore is actually as good a horse this year as he was last year considering his last 2 starts.
Amarillo is a decent level Group 3 performer in Germany & over here as he showed when winning at Haydock last year, he needs respecting after a good win last time with the ground in his favour tomorrow.
Boom And Bust goes extremely well at Goodwood with 4 places from 4 starts at the course including a good 3rd in this last year, he should once again get an uncontested lead & could easily be overpriced if he can bounce back to his best.
Es Que Love steps back up to 7f after a good 3rd behind Music Master 2 weekends ago, he is a decent animal who could find this race being run to suit.
Garswood won this race last year as a 3yo, he has been getting better on each run this season & is visored for the first time, player. Glory Awaits finally won a race last time at Chester but is not up to this. Gregorian steps back up in trip after a good run in the July Cup where he stayed on to take 3rd, this is his grade although he has shown a tendency for his best form to come with a bit of cut so the drying weather would not be favourable to him. Here Comes When has been most disappointing the last twice after a comfortable success at Chester back in May, needs more upped into Group 2 company.
Unsure as to whether I will have a bet in this, am slightly tempted by the 40/1 on offer for old Boom And Bust but I will most likely leave alone.
The 1m6f Summer Stakes has attracted an interesting & competitive field, seen as an Ebor trial it has some extremely dominant trends;
Weight: 9-7 - 10-0.
(3 winners in the last 10 years have carried 10st to victory).
Rating: 96 - 100
8 winners in the last 10 years had finished no worse than 4th last time out.
(3 won last time out).
Luca Cumnai has trained 3 winnerrs in the last 10 years.
4 x 4yo's have won in the last 10 years.
4 x 5yo's have won in the last 10 years.
1 x 6yo has won in the last 10 years.
1 x 7yo has won in the last 10 years.
7 horses in the last 10 years started at single figure odds.
(100/30 - 9/1).
4 x favourites have won in the last 10 years.
Shwaiman is sporting blinkers for the first time in a bid to spark a revival after 2 below par efforts, he is a classy animal if they can although he has yet to show he can cope with a mark this high. Repeater threw the race away at Sandown when everything was thrown at him, extremely capable but also very quirky, I could not back him.
Dashing Star is nothing if not consistent & the step back to the trip he was 2nd in The Melrose last year is a plus, front running tactics suit well at Goodwood & I could see him getting involved. Mirsaale steps up in trip on debut for new connections, he is a decent animal but struggles in these decent races as he has little scope like many of his rivals even his best would not be good enough. Havana Cooler will appreciate the better ground after hitting a flat spot on rain softened ground last time & failing to pick up until near the finish, he remains capable of better from a stable that has done so well in the race in the last 10 years & can be fancied to gain compensation here.
Continuum did me & many of my readers a favour last time at York when finally running over this trip, he ran out a cosy winner at the end showing stamina is his forte. he has been raised a few lbs back up to a mark he was beaten off at Royal Ascot behind Havana Cooler so he will need more but now he has the confidence of a win over a trip that clearly suits he must be respected & at present in the betting he does look a little overpriced.
Big Thunder represents another trainer who has won this race in recent years (Sir Mark Prescott), he showed disappointingly little in the Northumberland Plate on his return however & he cannot be on my radar for this race. Kellini steps back up to a trip that should be much more in his favour on his good quality Australian form, he ran a much better race at Windsor last time & is respected under Australian rider Craig Williams. Van Percy didn't get involved from a bad draw in the Northumberland Plate last time on his first run since being purchased by Australian syndicate OTI Racing, he is much better than that as he showed over this trip the time before last, still relatively lightly raced he can be given a chance to continue his improvement.
Boite is not good enough on what he has shown this year including when disappointing 4 days ago. Noble SIlk has been in excellent form on his last 2 starts & is another player in this quality handicap, mark may just prove beyond him for win purposes but can place. Even the excellent hands of Katie Walsh could not coax Saptapadi home last time at York, he struggles to win but stranger things have already happened with a similar horse from the stable in the last few days (Racy finally winning another race after a shocking run the day before). White Nile has shown nothing on his last 3 starts, stable was extremely out of form on each of those however but is now finally starting to turn to corner, he is on a nice mark as a result & should have more to offer whether its tomorrow I don't know but he is one to keep an eye on. Kings Bayonet represents Alan King who won this race with the owners Manyriverstocross a few years ago, Kings Bayonet would not be that class & has his work cut out to get involved from a career high mark in a much better race than he is used too.
The race of the day for me, Continuum as regular readers will know is a horse I have followed & am a fan of, at current prices he is once again over priced 10/1 Paddy Power / Stan James but I do think he may struggle to contain Havana Cooler 9/2 Bet365 / Paddy Power back on this better ground in a race that his trainer has a superb record in.
The previews later in the week will be more in depth but later in the card if Barnet Fair runs again I will most likely be jumping on board once more after a cracking run in defence of his title in the 5f Handicap on Saturday, the race on Tuesday is easier & if he remains in that form he should be very tough to beat.
@fttfracing
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