Hello & welcome along to my first blog this week, while Ascot stages the novelty frivolity that is the Shergar Cup the real action takes place at Haydock & Newmarket.
I have never been a fan of the Shergar Cup certainly not in its current form as racing is not a team sport & never will be let alone when the teams horses are not from the countries represented, for me its only really about the jockeys; its brilliant to see top class riders from all corners of the globe coming to Ascot to ride but as Hong Kong hosts the international jockey's challenge at the end of the year you can't go calling this a jockey's challenge although I don't really see why you can't.
If its to stick with its current format then why not open up the races to foreign trained horses from the countries involved ie in the European team the jockeys should ride horses from France, Germany, Italy & Scandinavia, Rest of the World would depend on the jockey's riding that year so horses from America, Hong Kong, Australia & South Africa for example, Great Britain & Ireland is self explanatory & I for one would drop the girls team as girls ride against boys all the time all over the world so why on this day should we revert to sexism?!
Also I am on @Betracingnation again this Saturday so I do hope you can join us between 10am - 12pm on Sky 212.
Onwards to the real punting action for this summer Saturday starting with Haydock where the feature event is The Rose of Lancaster Stakes perhaps not the race it once was but it is still an important race in the calendar where 3yo's & their elders clash at 1m2f for the first time in the season. This years race looks an excellent renewal with recent Listed winner Amralah heading the field, everything went perfectly for him last time but he only just held the fast finishing Vancouverite who re-opposes here, useful but for me
will do very well to confirm form in this.
will do very well to confirm form in this.
Danadana has looked a shadow of himself this time around & cannot be backed with confidence at present.
Educate ran a cracker in handicap company last time under a welter burden, he has yet to win in pattern company & see no reason why that should change here.
Hillstar drops in trip & grade with ground currently in his favour although he would not want it to dry out. He is classy at his best & from a stable that has done well in this race in recent years he is respected although I do wonder if he has forgotten how to win. Nabucco was 3rd behind Amralah & Vancouverite last time, he ran well but just looks to me like a horse who wants further as he always gets outpaced at 10f.
Vancouverite holds outstanding claims after a tremendous return to action in The Steventon Stakes at Newbury (a race that has produced the winner of this twice in the last 10 years) after a absence since the early part of the year in Dubai, he has room for more improvement & should take all the beating in this.
(Horse on the left in the pic below)
His owner mate True Story drops down in class after showing that top level competition is currently out of his reach, he has yet to show us on the track what Kieran Fallon has told us he shows him at home but this as I said is much easier than what he has been used to but I would imagine he would only run if ground came up fast (currently good to soft), if he does he could easily go well although I do not see him winning on Saturday.
Ayrad will find this much too tough judged on his effort in the French Derby, he missed the Gordon due to ground & so missed his last opportunity to take on his own age group. Similar comments apply to Spark Plug who was well beaten behind Arod in a minor race at Leicester last time, previously he had been easily brushed aside in a hot Group 3 at Royal Ascot.
Very keen on Vancouverite 5/1 Bet365 / BetVictor / Paddy Power / Ladbrokes in this.
15 runners face the starter in a good looking 1m2f handicap at 2:20 at Haydock; weights are headed by old Tres Coronas who was in rude health in the spring but is now far too high in the weights & is best watched till the handicapper relents.
Groundbreaking was an impressive handicap winner at Newmarket on his seasonal debut taking advantage of a reduced mark, he never got involved at Ascot next time which is a common occurrence at the Royal Meeting, can be given another chance here to confirm that his new mark is manageable.
Groundbreaking was an impressive handicap winner at Newmarket on his seasonal debut taking advantage of a reduced mark, he never got involved at Ascot next time which is a common occurrence at the Royal Meeting, can be given another chance here to confirm that his new mark is manageable.
Salutation continues in good form, he had nothing left at the finish when his stablemate came calling after using up all his energy in a battle with another of his stablemates at Goodwood last time, has been moved up again in the weights & will find things tough again.
Fattsota showed nothing here last time over 2 furlongs further so will benefit from the drop back in trip here although he remains high enough & his wins to run ratio is poor. Queensbury Rules ran ok last time just about showing that he stays this far, still looks awkward to me & I couldn't touch him with stolen money.
Energio Davos showed that he is steadily on his way back last time at Chester in a decent race for the grade, he has been dropped to a much more realistic mark & can be given a chance. Rye House was most disappointing at Newmarket last time after looking an unlucky loser at York the time before, he has been given plenty of time since then & should still have improvement to come & if the ground conditions stay the same he should get involved. Chancery was well beaten the other Sunday at Ascot previous to that he had ran ok in The John Smith's Cup, has been dropped a few more lbs & has the assistance of the master in Fallon, chances.
Llanarmon Lad has enjoyed a profitable season but last time it looked as if his new mark had him. Lahaag is ludicrously well handicapped & comes to hand around this time of year, as long as the ground doesn't get too firm he must hold excellent claims.
Busatto is another Johnston runner to have been kept busy recently, he was part of a duel with his stablemate Salutation last time that left both of them out on their feet towards the end of the race, will get out on the lead but may just find one or two too good for him at the end. The drop back in trip looks sure to suit Elhaame after 2 decent runs at 12f so far this season, he is on a very favourable mark compared with last seasons form but again real fast ground could be a slight issue, big player if he runs.
Surely Trail Blaze will not last at 10f while Truth Or Dare is outclassed taking on his elders in a handicap. Doc's Legacy has since April last year when in good form, this is tougher than he was previously used to & he wouldn't be a fancy of mine.
No bet race for me.
Lightning Thunder takes a massive step down in class in the next as the dual Classic runner up drops to Listed company, it should in theory be a shrewd move but she is quite a light framed filly & I genuinely am concerned with how much improvement there is left in her after a tough first half of the season especially as she is taking improving unexposed types in this. The other issue is current ground conditions although she can handle a bit of juice I am sure connections would prefer fast ground.
Those 2 improvers are Solar Magic & Token Of Love; Solar Magic has already shown she is up to Listed class & returned from a mid season break to win her maiden comfortably the other day, her trainer is hot with his fillies at present & she is respected. Token Of Love was given too much to do in a good handicap last time, she has been favourite on her last 3 starts & is well regarded, the smaller field here should suit. Goldstorm, Alutiq & Manderley are not good enough at this level.
Those 2 improvers are Solar Magic & Token Of Love; Solar Magic has already shown she is up to Listed class & returned from a mid season break to win her maiden comfortably the other day, her trainer is hot with his fillies at present & she is respected. Token Of Love was given too much to do in a good handicap last time, she has been favourite on her last 3 starts & is well regarded, the smaller field here should suit. Goldstorm, Alutiq & Manderley are not good enough at this level.
Lady Lara is exposed but is still more than capable in this class, with Fallon back on board you know another big run is expected & she can get involved.
Psychometry was unlucky to get hampered a couple of times when dropping back to a mile at The Royal Meeting, remains unexposed at this trip & is another player.
Wee Jean was well beaten upped to Group company last week at Goodwood, previous to that she had been in good form in races like this & is dangerous if allowed an uncontested lead.
Not a race to bet in for me.
The last race on Haydock's card is a good looking 3yo extended 1m3f handicap featuring last Saturday's Goodwood scorer Double Bluff; he is right back to his best form at present & despite the lumps of weight he is giving away will be hard to beat again, he is a horse I like & I can see him becoming a useful pattern performer at staying distances over the next few seasons.
Mount Logan was hit hard after an impressive seasonal debut at Goodwood earlier in the year, he ran well without truly threatening last time & will need more here.
Satellite was pulled of the Goodwood race that Double Bluff won last week due to ground, his mark looks a bit harsh to me on what he's achieved so far. He also hits the ground quite hard & I would be concerned if it did dry out. Similar comments apply to Black Schnapps who was also pulled out last week, he has less improvement in him though upped in class if he did run.
Montaly in the end found the ground too fast in The Queen's Vase at Ascot last time, he had previously been 2nd here to Wrangler on soft ground & at Leicester to Fun Mc. For me he should be capable off this mark & as long as it the ground gets no better than good, a bit of good to soft (which it currently is) would be perfect & I am confident of a bold show from him on Saturday.
Godolphin duo Devilment & Personal Opinion both look devoid of pace from what they have shown so far, they look held by their marks.
Farquhar was disappointing last time after a comfortable success here on softer ground earlier in the year, perhaps the 10lb rise found him out, he will need more in this from that same mark with softer ground looking his bag.
Gwafa steps into handicaps on quite a stiff opening mark even though he won by 19 lengths last time, it was a weak maiden & he beat nothing of real value, the filly he finished behind on his 2nd start Stella Bellissima was 6th in a Group 3 at Goodwood on her 2nd start & has only been rated 82 as a result.
Curbyourenthusiasm has looked very slow on all his starts, he has steadily rose from an opening 69 to Saturday's 75 after one paced placed efforts, not for me.
Am a fan of Montaly (WON) 10/1 E/W Bet365 / Ladbrokes / Coral & he looks the play in this.
Over at Newmarket the big race is for 2yo fillies over 7f a race in recent years that has been dominated by Godolphin who have won it with both strands of the operation for the last 5 years running. This year they are doubly represented.
Once raced maiden winner Efflorescence who pulled very hard on debut making all to win going away at the finish in quite a slow time; she is a half sister to the useful Group 3 winning mare Zibelina. Will need to settle better in this but is respected.
Saeed Bin Suroor fields once raced maiden winner Winters Moon who the 7f maiden at The July Meeting that has produced the winner of this race twice in the last 10 years. She was edgy on debut but didn't let it overtake her & she travelled sweetly before taking up the lead & runing on to will well. She is a half sister to Group 1 winners Wavering & Mandean. Faster ground should be fine for her so out of the two Godolphin fillies I would prefer her.
Alonsoa has looked a filly out of the top draw on both her starts to date, well backed on debut at Newbury she in truth sauntered home easily & then stepped up to Listed company at Sandown she again travelled strongly before being asked to quicken up & win her race which she again did with the minimum of fuss; the race she won at Sandown has produced the winner of this twice in the last 10 years. Will take all the beating now upped to Group company.
Arabian Queen received an intelligent ride to nick a very weak Group 2 last time, she will be fine at this trip but lacks to scope of most of her rivals especially giving away 5lbs.
Bonnie Grey is a decent little filly who is starting to get left behind by the more late maturing types that are appearing now, she ran as well as she could behind Alonsoa last time & will being doing well if she places here.
Calypso Beach made all to win a 6f Listed race here last time which has not worked out, she will do well to get away with the same tactics here.
Muraaqaba was disappointing for me in a weak what had looked a winnable Group 3 last time, she was slightly hampered when trying to rechallenge but would have always been well held anyway. Step up in trip will suit her & I wouldn't be that surprised if that got her involved for place money. Pack Together was comfortably brushed aside by Alonsoa last time out & I see no real reason why she should be turning that form around here.
Peace And War is in on Friday & unless she is declared a non runner she won't be running here. Savoy Showgirl won an average Ascot nursery last time from a lenient opening mark, she is facing choicely bred fillies here & will need more.
Stroll Patrol made an encouraging debut behind Winter's Moon on debut, she then went to Leicester & won in good style worth a go in this grade she could easily outrun her odds. What A Party has belied her ordinary pedigree & run well on all 3 starts winning comfortably at Yarmouth last time she has previously had been 3rd in a in a decent looking course & distance maiden. Most likely will be outclassed but may finish ahead of a fancied runner or 2.
Alonsoa 11/2 BetVictor has looked the real deal in both her starts so far, this her toughest test but I do expect her to come through it.
The 1m2f handicap has cut up from the 5 day entry stage to leave just 8 runners so at least the small mercy of a 3rd place. Ajmany heads them on 10st after just getting beat but in truth always being held 2 weeks ago at Newmarket by First Flight, he has been raised a couple of lbs for that effort but should still take some beating.
Urban Dance & Clon Brulee from Godolphin joining Ajmany on 10st; Urban Dance has been disappointing so far this season with his mark looking beyond him.
Clon Brulee ran a super race on his UK return at Epsom back at the start of June, he is more than capable from this mark & could have things fall his way here.
Tinghir returns to the track after not being seen since last May, soft ground has been a plus for him in the past so this faster surface is a worry, his stable have endured a torrid time so far this year but have at least had 2 winners in the last 2 weeks so perhaps they are turning a corner. Nicholascopernicus is more than capable but has been struggling so far this year, softer ground would be more to his liking as well.
Double Discount is running into form but may want an easier grade of race & a bit more help from the handicapper. Enobled appreciated the step up in trip last time out but still appeared one paced as though 2 more furlongs would suit better, may get a slightly stronger pace here though & his mark has been dropped by a pound so could get involved but more likely for minor money.
Master Of Finance takes on his elders for the first time & could take some catching with relatively few front runners in the race, he ought not to be good enough judged on last weeks run at Goodwood but weight stops trains & he will feel like he's loose in this field.
Interesting race but not one I have a strong fancy in.
A tight 7f handicap is up next; Music Theory showed zip on his return 21 days ago, would need a leap of faith to back him now. Zanetto came back to some sort of form when dominating & just getting caught last time at York, he is visored for the first time today so that will help but more of a concern is the 7f's as he has struggled to get home in the past. Rene Mathis has been holding his form in less competitive races this season, 7f is a worry but he is respected in this kind of race. Common Touch is almost on his last winning mark & will find this race much easier than those he has been contesting wouldn't be surprised to see him go well. Excellent Guest is on a winnable mark but prefers bigger fields where he can get buried & run through horses, not for me.
Victoire De Lyphar looks to have done his winning for the season off lower marks. Almargo has run 12 times already this year & has a fabulous constitution bouncing back from poor runs last time on 3 occasions so far this year, has more to do from this mark now but you wouldn't really be surprised if he popped up.
Englishman has missed many opportunities so far in the last few months, you would be worried about Saturday as well on the ground, big player if he does take his chance as he remains unexposed in this sort of grade.
Mezzotint is well under his last winning mark & didn't run that badly on his last start, these smaller sized fields seem to suit so I could see him going close. Gramercy possesses tonnes of ability but rarely consents to using it, not for me.
Too trappy for me to have a bet in.
@fttfracing
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