Wednesday 29 October 2014

Breeders Cup Weekend; Friday 31st October & Saturday 1st November 2014

Howdy partners & welcome along to my blog for Night One & Night Two of the 2014 Breeders Cup from the picturesque Santa Anita Park in Los Angeles. 



Since the Breeders Cup went to 2 days the quality has beyond doubt be diluted but this year the Friday especially; stands up well in comparison to the more illustrious Saturday. Fillies & mares take centre stage with 2 Grade 1 races for the fairer sex among the 4 Breeders Cup races.



As with all US tracks Santa Anita is tight & on the turn so a high draw can seriously hinder a chance of a big win especially on the tighter inner Turf Track. 



Opening up Breeders Cup 2014 are 2yo colts & geldings, a race in which Europeans have dominated since its inception in 2007 winning 5 from the 7 renewals with John Gosden & Aidan O'Brien having won 2 each.
Wet Sail (seen following Fiesolana in work) heads this year's field for rookie trainer Charlie Fellowes, he was a well held 3rd behind the imperious Limato in Redcar's 2yo Trophy last time. He has yet to race the mile & this is an incredibly tough race to try it in. 



Daddy D T was well beaten on the dirt here last time behind tomorrow's hot Juvenile favorite American Pharaoh, he has won on a firm Turf course at Del Mar but he will not have faced the calibre of opposition before that he faces here. 
Luck Of The Kitten is the first of many over the 2 nights to race for the ebuillient Ken Ramsey whose former Turf Champion Kitten's Joy is the sire of the majority of the best US Turf horses, a pacey front runner who is likely to set the race up for the Europeans. 
Commemorative has come along way in a short space of time only making his racecourse debut 2 months ago in a decent race at Sandown. He won what is turning out to be an above average maiden at Doncaster on his next start & duly made the step up to Group company when making all at Newmarket; that race is not working out with though with 3 horses that ran behind him having come out to be beaten next time. 



Hootenanny was one of the easiest winners of Royal Ascot 2014 & bids to add a Breeders Cup victory to his CV over a mile!? He looks too fast on what he has shown so far to last the mile against some good horses. 



Conquest Typhoon represents Canada, he has won just once in 4 starts at Woodbine & was easily turned over a Ramsey runner who wouldn't be as good Luck Of The Kitten. 
War Envoy has been to almost all the big gigs in the UK running with credit since stepped up to 7f finishing 2nd to Estidhkaar from a slow gallop at Doncaster (Runaway Dewhurst winner Belardo behind) & an unlucky 5th at Longchamp (in front of Aktabantay). Ryan Moore (ridden both Ballydoyle winners of this) fresh from his superb ride on Adelaide in the Cox Plate maintains the partnership with the fast ground on a turning track a huge plus for the this good looking horse. 


Offering Plan has had just the 2 starts winning nicely on debut before being outpointed by another of today's rivals at Belmont last time. That race didn't appear to be run to suit so he has a chance of getting involved from a stronger pace here. 
Aktabantay is a pretty useful colt who promises to be well suited by a mile, fast ground could be a slight worry as his trainer was unsure whether to run him on a fast surface when he broke his maiden at Newcastle in the summer. Seemingly had his limitations exposed in a Group 1 last time but like War Envoy who re-opposes here; he didn;t enjoy the best of runs that day & with Peslier onboard for the first time from a good draw he can get seriously involved at a good price.
Startup Nation didn't enjoy much luck in The Pilgrim last time out behind Imperia & Offering Plan, when he finally got extricated he did not have the pace to reach those opponents. Prior to that he was a hugely impressive winner from International Star (another to re-oppose here) who has since won a Grade 2 in Canada.
Imperia runs for Godolphin's American operation, he is a son of their UAE 1000 Guineas / UAE Oaks winning mare & double US Grade 1 winner Cocoa Beach. He stepped up on his unlucky debut 2nd to romp away from a decent field in the Pilgrim last time, could easily be the best of the home defence.



International Star has been mentioned in dispatches earlier in the piece & is a 2nd runner for Ken Ramsey, he has plenty to prove back in top company after being easily beaten when previously taking on a better class of horse. 
Lawn Ranger made hard work of winning just an ordinary Stakes race last time & this requires more. Danny Boy returned to Turf last time when pushing Lawn Ranger all the way, it was a reversal from their previous meeting where Danny Boy had beaten Lawn Ranger on debut. Another likely to struggle from a poor draw. 
Faithful Creek from Brian Meehan's stable is well below the standard of the other European runners & would have plenty on his plate should he take part. 

War Envoy at 11/2 Betway has been crying out for a mile of fast ground, he is a  confident selection.




The Breeders Cup Dirt Mile is aimed at horses who are not thought good enough for the Classic on Saturday night, in the 7 years since its inception;
4 x 4yo have won,
2 x 3yo have won 
& 1 x 5yo has won.
No one jockey or trainer has won more than one renewal. 

Rafael Bejarano bids to buck that trend when partnering last year's impressive winner Goldencents for new trainer Leandro Mora. He has the plum draw in 1 this year to attack & he ran a huge race last time in a decent sprint over 6f at Santa Anita. Big player once again with 2 of the top 10 Beyer figures at up to a mile already this year. 



Carve made hay earlier in the year with 3 wins on the spin at Churchill Downs in an Allowance optional Claimer, a Grade 3 at Prairie Meadows & at Mountaineer Park in a non stakes race (West Virginia Governors Stakes). Since those 3 victories he has been beaten in better company but is respected from a good draw here. 
Vicars In Trouble couldn't handle the quality of the Kentucky Derby finishing a long last, since then he has been 3rd in The Iowa Derby & The West Virginia Derby, Won The Super Derby at Louisiana Downs & been 2nd in The Indiana Derby. He is a fast horses who likes to lead but faces a big task here taking on Goldencents. 
Pants On Fire took advantage of a huge class to win at Charles Town last time, he is a decent old stick but just struggles in top company.
Handsome Mike is a similar horse to Pants On Fire useful but not in the top grade. 
Golden Ticket was a well beaten 2nd last year, he got a terrible hold up ride last time in The Kelso & shaped better than his finishing position, could easily be a frame contender again this year. 



Bronzo won a Grade 2 over 9 furlongs & a Grade 1 over 11 furlongs in Chile on his last 2 starts, he looks a stamina laden animal so the drop back on his first US start is a concern. Fed Biz gave Shared Belief a race last time out, he had previously been well beaten by Goldencents & was only 6th in this race last year. 
Tapiture is one of the better US 3yo's this year, he got an awful run last time out when a strong finishing 2nd to Bayern at Parx after previously having won The West Virginia Derby & The Matt Winn Stakes, needs luck in running again here but the one most likely to put it up to Goldencents. 



Big Bane Theory skips a go at European Turf specialists in the mile to make his first start on dirt which seems a barmy decision.    

Not a race for a single bet but will play Goldencents / Tapiture & Golden Ticket in exotics.




2yo fillies get their moment in the sun in the next; This race was introduced in 2008 & Europeans have won the last 2 renewals so not as much of a domination as you would expect with US fillies the first 4 renewals.
Partisan Politics was well beaten behind an unbeaten stable companion last time out & has work to do. 
Osailia won a decent sales race in good style at Newmarket last time & had previously been 5th in a red hot addition of The Moyglare (finishing ahead of Qualify). She should just about stay the mile & has a cracking draw, must be Frankie's best chance of a winner for his boss despite the stables poor overall Breeders Cup record. 



Sunset Glow was expected to win at Royal Ascot in the summer but found one too good in the shape of Cursory Glance, that she finished in front of Osailia & Peace And War. She has since won a Grade 2 & The Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante Stakes just doing enough both times so the worry is that is she too speedy for the mile here. 



Lady Eli is unbeaten in 2 starts so far winning a Grade 3 at Belmont last time in the style of a decent young filly, draw has been kind so is respected. 



Isabella Sings did too much from the front at Woodbine last time & failed to fully get home, work to do again in this grade. 
Sivoliere has her first start for Chad Brown after showing useful form in minor French pattern races, on a form line through Calypso Beat (2nd in a Group 3 at Deauville) who she finished behind in a Group 3 at Deauville on her last start she has plenty to find with Osialia & Sunset Glow. 
Rainha De Bateria won a Grade 3 at Keeneland in good style last time after previously finishing a well held 4th to Partisan Politics. 



Nicky's Brown Miss has just a small win at a small track Kentucky Downs to her name so far & faces a huge task here. 
Lady Zuzu a stablemate of Rainha De Bateria won her maiden at Keeneland by over 6 lengths last time having been previously well beaten in Grade 1 company on dirt. 
Quality Rocks ran nice race when 2nd on Turf behind Rainha De Bateria last time out, still improving but work to do to turn that form around. 
Conquest Harlanate has not looked back since her maiden defeat & has won 3 straight races at Woodbine in graded company the last twice, clearly the best 2yo filly in Canada can she now bring that form to Santa Anita. 
Tammy The Torpedo is the 3rd runner from the Chad Brown stable, she was favourite to beat her re-opposing stablemates last time but appeared laboured & short of pace at a crucial point as Lady Eli sailed past, she battled on near the line to regain 3rd but from this draw will need to pull out a lot more here. 
Prize Exhibit is just useful in the UK at a level below Group class despite her 3rd stepped up to 7f in a poor renewal of The Oh So Sharp last time, she benefited from the slow pace that allowed her to get home. On breeding she will struggle to get the mile in this much better company especially from a tough draw. She has recently been sold to US connections so will continue her career in the sunshine. 
Qualify is in the car park & she will need another masterclass from Ryan Moore if she is to get involved, form entitles her to go close she didn't need to improve much to win last time as it was an ordinary Group 3. Respected despite the draw. 

Unlike most Turf races the Euros may not have it all to themselves here with some decent US contenders although Osailia does look to have a great chance.





The big race on Night one is the Breeders Cup Distaff for the 3 year old fillies & upwards, won over the years by the likes of Royal Delta & Zenyatta.
The consistent French mare L'Amour De Ma Vie has been all over the globe & now tackles the dirt for the first time in her career, almost impossible to tell how she will adapt especially considering her last race was disappointing when favourite for a poor Italian Group 1.



Tiz Midnight stepped up on her good Del Mar meeting when a good 2nd in a Grade 1 here at the end of September. On the improve & worthy of respect here. 



Iotapa was 3rd in the above mentioned race looking well held that day, she is a top level filly at her best & does have some good course form to her name. 



Belle Gallantey is a very classy mare at her best as she showed when making all under a confident ride in the Beldame last time to win by over 8 lengths, can throw in the odd shocker but otherwise she is a player over a trip that suits perfectly.



Unbridled Forever has been well beaten behind several of her rivalries this year & needs a huge personal best. 



Stanwyck a half sister to Derby winner Giacomo has been beaten out of sight behind 2 of the likely favourites on her last 2 starts so has plenty on here plate here. 



Don't Tell Sophia is a decent mare who made the Grade 1 breakthrough last time out when accounting for a clearly below par Close Hatches, respected given her current form.



Valiant Emilia brings Peruvian form to the table, hard to tell what she has achieved on her last win & will most likely struggle here. 


Ria Antonia was last year's Juvenile fillies winner, she has struggled in all her runs this season looking well behind the best of her generation. 



Untapable has been the stand out 3 year old filly in North America this year winning 5 races from 6 starts including 3 at Grade 1 level, her only defeat was when taking on the boys in the Haskell. Her ability to travel & quicken on the dirt surface has marked her out from her rivals, she is the one to beat. 



Close Hatches is the one of the best older mares in the US, she was unbeaten this season until a poor run last time at Keeneland. every horse in entitled to one bad run but she will need to bounce back against a top class 3 year old here.    


     

Superb race in which I genuinely hope the top 2 duel it out down the Santa Anita straight.






Breeders Cup Night Two: Saturday


Opening up Saturday Night's action is The Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies not a division I am strong on so will leave that race to the experts.


The Filly & Mare Turf has perhaps surprisingly been won just the 6 times by the Europeans since its inception in 1999 with some notable high profile failures namely Ouija Board (who also won 2 renewals), Midday (who had won the previous year) & The Fugue. 
This year we have a strong team with no less than 4 runners with 3 of those 4 having won already at Group 1 level. Dank last year's heroine attempts to go back to back a feet no filly or mare has achieved even the great Ouija Board had to wait 2 years to regain her crown while the equally classy Midday was also beaten on her 2nd attempt at the race; so the question is, is Dank better than Ouija Board or Midday?



There's a clear answer here & that's 'NO' but does that mean she cannot do it...of course not its just this preparation has been nowhere near as solid, she has had just the 2 starts   this time around with an excellent albeit well beaten 3rd in Dubai & then a disappointing run when 5th behind The Fugue at Royal Ascot. It will be a tremendous training performance to bring her back here after not running since June & bringing her back to her very best in a race that is much higher on quality than last years.
Secret Gesture is a small light framed filly who loves fast ground, she has promised for a long time to be well suited by the US style of racing & despite being a long way quite a way behind her other Euro compatriots she has to be respected from a good draw for a prominent racer. Her owner mate Just The Judge finally gained another top level win in Canada a few weeks ago, it was a dominant display in a much weaker Grade 1 but on her back form she is right up there with the best of these & looks to be Jamie Spencer's best chance of retiring on a huge high. With that win under her belt we could easily see all the early promise from this former Irish 1000 Guineas come to fruition. 



Completing the European raiders is talented Irish mare Fiesolana who gained her top level breakthrough just 2 starts ago in the Matron, she got no luck in the Foret last time so that run is best ignored. Since she has been trained in Ireland she has stuck to 7f - 1 mile races but as a juvenile she won a 10 furlong maiden on heavy ground in Naples so her stamina is quite clearly assured. 



On to the home team who have the best record in the race with 9 wins since the races inception in 1999; Abaco has some useful form in minor stakes company to her name but should be nowhere near good enough here. 
Dayatthespa is herself also classy winning the First Lady at the start of the month, she has yet to win at more than 9 furlongs on Turf which is a concern. 
Emollient had been extremely disappointing on her previous 2 strats prior to her win over course & distance in The Rodeo Drive Grade 1, she was only 4th last year & doesn't looked to have improved that much this time around. 



Irish Mission a formerly no more than useful Canadian mare is now in the care of the excellent Christophe Clement, she is consistent to a level but will struggle in this race. Parranda was just outstayed by Emollient last time here & all her other form suggests she is below this grade & better at a shorter distance. 
Stephanie's Kitten is the best of the home team, she won a poor Flower Bowl comfortably last time & was the subject of Frankie bashing after she was a fast finishing 2nd in The Beverly D (for me she just didn't have the pace & ran as well as she could). Stamina is assured & if the Europeans have an off day she could easily pick up the biggest win of her career here. 
Rusty Slipper is an improving 4 year old who looked to have had too much use of her made early in The Rodeo Drive last time so she had little left at the end, a more restrained ride can see her go ok at a price.

Tough race I am unsure if Dank can do it again so may well back Just The Judge again & I would not be surprised if Fiesolana were to outrun her odds. 
May well play all 4 Europeans in the exotics rather than back any singles.  



      
The filly & mare sprint is not normally a race I would look at but while watching Stateside on +At The Races one evening I caught a race from Saratoga where Artemis Agrotera won by over 10 lengths, she had been useful at 2 years when favourite for the Juvenile Fillies last year but was disappointing on her first start back at 3, since being dropped to sprinting however she has not looked back winning her next 2 after that Saratoga win, she will be short but deserves to be judged by her form.
Godolphin run Better Lucky who is decent in her own right & rarely runs a bad race, dropping back in trip could help & she could easily go well.
I don't know that much about the other fillies in the race but on a quick look at form lines they will all have to go some to beat Artemis Agrotera.

Artemis Agrotera 100/30 Racebets at a generous price will do here.


    


The Turf sprint is run over Santa Anita's incredibly unique turning downhill course where a fast start if your draw low is key otherwise you will be swallowed up by the outside posts. 


This year we have a UK representative in the shape of recent Nearctic Stakes winner Caspar Netscher, he will love the trip & fast ground should be no bother, his outside post looks fine in the context of the race. Pat Smullen takes over from 'Midge' Mullen who gave him a fantastic ride in Canada but is now unfortunately under the surgeons knife, plenty more required here but finished to great effect last time out.
 Ryan Moore rides the former James Fanshawe trained Dimension who has a 2nd go at the race from a better draw than last year, he won a small race at Kentucky Downs last time. 
Frankie Dettori gets the leg up on the speedy & classy Royal Ascot & Prix Morny winner from last year No Nay Never who has returned this year to follow up his debut 2nd in a small race by winning a Grade 3 at Keeneland. More needed here but has plenty of back class. Reneesgotzip was just caught for the win last year & had to share 2nd on the line, clearly been aimed at this again but has plenty to do from the lowest possible draw. Silentio is likely to be caught off heels early on as he tries sprinting for the first time, a decent miler he could easily finish off with a rattle once those in front have cried enough. Sweet Swap clearly has problems due to his limited number of starts for a horse of his age but what he does have is a love affair with this unique sprint track with 4 wins here, player if ready to roll after a long layoff. 
Tightened Touchdown flew home to get a share of 2nd on the line last year, all his other form is over 5f around Parx, plenty on again but could surprise.
Ambitious Brew is another courses specialist having a go at top company which he has so far looked well short of. Bobby's Kitten has been a disappointing frustrating type who was well beaten by Trade Storm at Woodbine last time, sprinting does look his game given his early speed but this is a tough course to have your first go at it. 
Marchman appears better at 5 furlongs so this 6.5 furlong downhill trip will stretch him. Something Extra was 2nd to Dimension last time out, all his form is below this class of race. Free As A Bird is an in-form hold up mare who has won her last 5 starts at a much lower level, not out of this if she can maintain the improvement. 
Home Run Kitten just got up on the line back in September to win a Grade 3 over this course & distance on her first try at sprinting, has a chance. 
Undrafted was an excellent 4th to Slade Power in the July Cup earlier in the summer, he returned home to be beaten when favourite at Kentucky Downs behind Dimension last time, will be flying home late & yet another who has a chance in an open race. 
Ageless was beaten behind Free As A Bird last time out, she is useful to a level & is another hold up horse in a race packed with them. 
Old Za Approval was a fine 2nd in last year's Breeders Cup Mile & this time around he tries the Turf Sprint, big ask against seasoned speedsters here after what has been just a poor season by his standards although he did gain a confidence boosting win last time at Belmont dropped in grade so if you were to see the old grey swooping down the outside it would not be a big surprise.   

Incredibly tough race to call, Caspar Netscher is a very backable each way price but will most likely leave this race alone.

  



The Juvenile usually unearths next years Kentucky Derby favourite & this year we have a runner from Aidan O'Brien's stable in the shape of The Great War who in truth in Europe has been disappointing, a big horse who promised to be better & sharper next year it seems strange that he has been campaigned so vigorously but then it may well be that this was always the aim, so giving him plenty of experience for his first attempt on dirt.  
Aidan has won this before with similar hard campaigned juvenile in the shape of Johannesburg although he had much better form overall than that of The Great War. 
Calculator is still a maiden & has twice been beaten by the horse that would have been the likely favorite for this race the sadly injured American Pharaoh, chances but it would be a big effort to win. 
Private Prospect is a big price in the betting but there was not much wrong with his last run & his first in stakes company. 
Blue Dancer is unbeaten in 4 starts at small racetracks in Canada including Hastings Park on his last start, plenty to do up in grade here. 
Lucky Player was beaten by Private Prospect prior to winning in Graded company on his next start, open to improvement. 
Texas Red was well behind American Pharaoh last time out & just behind Calculator so he has a similar chance here on form. 
Super Colossal is unbeaten in 3 starts at Monmouth Park winning at 4.5 furlongs, 5 furlongs & on his last when taking the step up to a mile easily, faces better quality animals here but has to be respected. 
Carpe Diem was hugely impressive stepped up to Grade 1 company in The Futurity at Keeneland last time making all to win easily, big player. 


Mr Z has been readily outpointed by Carpe Diem & Lucky Player on his last 2 starts so has plenty to do here. 
One Lucky Dane would appear to be quite well regarded so its perhaps surprising that it took him until his 3rd start to break his maiden which he did with the minimum of fuss by many lengths, outsider with a chance. 
Daredevil gives Todd Pletcher an outstanding hand in this, he duly won the Grade 1 Champagne on his 2nd start on a sloppy course in a very good time earning him the best Beyer figure in the US so far this year of 107. 


Upstart was well beaten into 2nd behind Daredevil last time however he still produced the 2nd best Beyer figure of 104. he will appreciate the return to a faster surface here & is not without claims.

Not a race I will be getting involved in either in the singles or exotics market.




Now were on the home stretch with the 4 biggest races of the meeting starting with The Breeders Cup Turf, a race in which unsurprisingly the Europeans have a tremendous record in with 17 winners since 1984. In the last 10 years we have won 7 renewals & once more hold a strong hand. 
Telescope heads the raiding party, this has been his aim ever since a reasonable run when 3rd over a trip shy of his best behind Australia & The Grey Gatsby at York. He is a good horse if not top class & his records shows you that. Well behind Taghrooda in The King George, destroyed by Noble Mission twice (although that now looks red hot form) & his only win was by an outstanding 7 lengths from his stablemate Hillstar who won an egg & spoon race that was apparently a Group 1 in Canada recently. On a strict form line through Taghrooda he cannot beat Flintshire here even allowing for a 2lb difference in the weights when they each met Taghrooda. 



Brown Panther had a troubling experience at Woodbine when bolting before the start something I have never seen him do before, whether he would have come if he had run in the race anyway. All his best form is at further than 12 furlongs & i cannot see him getting such an easy lead in this race with some pacey Americans taking him on, he doesn't have the turn of foot that his fellow Euros have especially on the firmest ground he would have raced on. 



Flintshire ran a superb race in the Arc & was hugely unlucky to run into a clearly revved up Treve otherwise he would have been a comfortable winner, genuine fast ground is what he has always wanted & he has long been my idea of the winner of this race. He has been brought to a peak by his masterful trainer & I fully expect him to win & win well. 



Chicquita is a complete madam as she showed when throwing away victory in a weak fillies Group 1 on Champions Day, couldn't have her at all.
The home defence is headed by an expat Main Sequence who when trained in the UK looked laboured on more than one occasion & recalcitrant on many others but the horse had plenty of issues so the US style of racing & allowing the use of medication have made a huge difference; since his move he has not looked back winning 3 straight Grade 1's with devastating late runs to win comfortably each time. He is right up there with the best of the Euro's & is a huge threat. 



Twilight Eclipse is decent to a level but well below the standard here. Similar comments apply to Imagining while Hangover Kid & Finnegans Wake are just not good enough even in comparison to their US counterparts. 
Hardest Core has won 3 on the bounce & caused a huge surprise when beating the generally below par this year Magician in the Million (who I personally could not have seen having a chance this year even before his retirement the other day). Wouldn't be sure he can repeat that effort against much better opposition here. 
Starspangled Heat has no chance on form & would need a miracle to get involved. 

Big John B has risen from claiming level, through a handicap to win The Del Mar Handicap Grade 2 during the summer, he then finished 3rd in another Grade 2 at Saratoga, that form leaves him with plenty to do here especially from a wide draw.

Am a huge fan of Flintshire 11/4 Boylesports here. 





Much of the interest in The Breeders Cup Sprint revolves around crack Hong Kong sprinter Rich Tapestry who was a first winner from his country in the US when a ready winner of a quality small field Grade 1 here at the start of the month. He has been handed a handy draw & must have a huge chance of giving Hong Kong a first Breeders Cup success. 


In behind Rich Tapestry last time was the defending Champion the classy & pacey Secret Circle who has had just 2 runs so far this campaign since his win here last year. He looked short of work last time & will only improve for that, holds excellent claims of going back to back for trainer Bob Baffert who has won 3 renewals in the last 10 years including training the only back to back winner Midnight Lute '07 & '08.
Seeking The Sheriff won a small race at Los Alamitos last time & steps back into Graded company here, good draw but plenty to do. 
Indianapolis is well bred lightly raced improving 3 year old who is a stablemate of Secret Circle, big step in class but interesting connections are pitching him in so deep. 
Wind Fire is a rare runner for the UK in the sprint, she is a small,no more than useful 3 year old filly who will not know what's hit when the dirt flies in her face. She is US bred so technically she should handle the dirt but all her form is on Turf & this is a huge ask on her first start on the surface that is alien to her let alone a distance she has yet to win at. Private Zone gained a 2nd win in The Vosburgh last month & holds strong claims on the best of his form. Mico Margarita has won minor races at Remington Park & Mountaineer Park on his last 2 starts, he has also won at Evangeline Downs this year, plenty to do upped to genuine Grade 1 class here though. 
Palace was a disappointment in The Vosburgh last time after previously winning his last 2 starts in Grade 1 company, big player if he is back to his best here. 
Salutos Amigos only ran 7 days ago at Belmont when winning a Grade 3 handicap, has some good form with the best around & could get involved if backing up. 
Big Macher hasn't been seen since disappointing behind Goldencents at Del Mar at the end of August, a month earlier at Del Mar he had beaten a slightly unlucky Goldencents in The Bing Crosby Grade 1. Hard to know what to expect after the layoff but one of the better bigger priced horses. 
Bakken has only had a couple of runs this year finishing a close up 2nd to Palace in June before another break until the start of October when he won a small optional claimer in good style. 
Fast Anna is a fast colt who couldn't hold on in a small Graded race at Parx last time after previously running 2nd in a Grade 1. 
Work All Week has 4 out of his 5 starts this year rising from optional claiming company through handicaps into a Grade 3 at Keeneland last time out, biggest test to date here.
Bourban Courage dropped in optional claiming company to get a win on the board last time, been well beaten in Graded company in the past.     
              Bahamian Squall is another to have dropped into optional claiming company to gain a win this year, his last 2 starts in Grade 1 company have met with heavy defeats.
Indexical has been last on his last 2 starts & has too much to do to get involved here.

Quite keen on Secret Circle 5/1 Betfred / Boylesports / Paddy Power for back to back wins.






Like the Turf the Mile is another race that has been dominated by the Euros over the years with 12 wins since 1984 although it has been relatively lean in the last 10 years with just the mighty Goldikova's 3 straight wins. Wise Dan has been the dominate US miler in recent seasons but he has unfortunately been retired.
   Toronado is the one everyone wants to be on this year with the majority believing he is already won the race which is a dangerous assumption in Horse Racing, this was always going to a better target than slogging through the Ascot mud but Santa Anita brings its own problems for Richard Hughes who despite winning on Chriseliiam last year (by far the best in what was a weak race) he has struggled on his forays abroad especially in America think Sky Lantern 2 years ago. You also have to take into account that the Hannon's have a shocking record in the Breeders Cup albeit from a smallish sample due to Richard Snr not being the events biggest fan. Toronado himself is a decent horse but I am still not convinced he is top class as he appears to need absolutely everything to fall into place perfectly for him just like it did first time out at Ascot in June, he has since been readily outpointed by Kingman & Charm Spirit. At the prices he is far too short & is worth taking on with plenty of decent horses in opposition. 



France have the by far the best record of the Europeans in this race with 9 of the 12 European winners coming from our gallic neighbours; 
Freddy Head sends over Goldikova's little brother Anodin who up until has been firmly in the shadow of his more illustrious sister, he was extremely unlucky behind Olympic Glory last time prior to that he had run well behind Kingman & was 3rd to Toronado at Ascot. This however you would imagine has been his season long target & he races like a horse who will benefit from fast ground. Draw is fine for him & he holds excellent claims at a decent price. 



Veda has long been held in high regard by her trainer & overall despite her problems has had a decent season finishing a close 2nd to a classy filly in Avenir Certain in the French 1000 Guineas & coming back after a long break with a decent run on Arc weekend behind an improving older colt. She travels well in her races so with fast ground promising to suit on breeding & she should not be discounted from a fantastic draw receiving weight. 



The 3rd French trained runner is Karakontie from Jonathan Pease's stable (trainer has won this race before with the excellent Spinning World in 1997), he is another to be forgiven his run last time in the Foret as he found even more trouble than Anodin. Earlier in the season he looked a colt of the highest order winning the French 2000 well before getting injured in the French Derby. Another who promises to be well suited by fast ground although the big negative that has been put out there by racing journalists in the US is the draw he is 14 of 15 runners, in Turf races you do not want to be drawn wide ideally but it doesn't mean you can't win in fact the last 6 Breeders Cup Mile's run at Santa Anita since 1993 were drawn in the following stalls; 
Wise Dan in 8 in 2013 / Wise Dan in 2 in 2012 (small field of 9 runners) / Goldikova in 11 in 2009 (11 runners) / Goldikova in 4 in 2008 / Six Perfections in 13 (13 runners) & Lure in 12 in 1993 (13 runners) so there is plenty of reason not to give up on Karakontie who has struck me as the right type for the Mile all season long especially as with so many hold up performers drawn on his inside he may well get the perfect run into the straight down the wide outside.



Mustajeeb is a rare Breeders Cup runner for Dermot Weld, this lightly raced Jersey Stakes winner was given too much to do last time when unable to real in Bow Creek. Short enough on what he has achieved in comparison to others in the lineup. 



Trade Storm got his Grade 1 success that connections had long been chasing winning a truly awful race in Canada for the Woodbine Mile, he has plenty of talent but has been found out before when up more talented runners. On the positive side his confidence will be up & the race should suit his hold up style. 



The home team is pretty strong led by Seek Again a former Cambridgeshire 5th who has blossomed in the US running Wise Dan close earlier in the year, you can forget his last run as he was badly snatched up yet another who will be playing it late & like Karakontie his wide draw may not be as much of an inconvenience. 
Obviously is a consistent Graded miler who likes Santa Anita, 4th last year he did too much & dropped away tamely at Del Mar last time. 
Tom's Tribute is on the crest of a wave at present winning his last 2 starts at Del Mar including in Grade 1 company, this is by far his biggest test but don't rule out a decent run. Kaigun was outpointed by Trade Storm at Woodbine 2 starts ago & has been beaten by all the top horses before, plenty on his plate. 
Summer Front is usually held up for a late rattle that the majority of the time does not pay off being outpointed by Tom's Tribute & Obviously on his last 2 starts. If he can be ridden a little closer he is just the type to go well at huge price. 
Sayaad is a lightly raced improving 4 year old who is coming to his peak judging by his last 3 starts running his best race of his career by far last time when breaking smartly, he only just getting caught late on by Wise Dan & Grand Arch; who ran a super race that day after being well beaten at Woodbine by Trade Storm, overall his record is patchy & not up to this level. Tourist has not been seen since pushing recent Cox Plate winner Adelaide all the way in The Secretariat in August, big ask after a long layoff against some quality animals. Mr Commons is a long way below the required standard & will struggle in this.
                 
I will stick with Karakontie 14/1 E/W Racebets despite his apparent coffin box wide draw.





So we've made it to the Final race of the 2 days the $5 million dollar Breeders Cup Classic & is regarded as the premier race in the North American calendar.
In recent years older horses have dominated winning the last 5 renewals (8 in total in the last 10 years). Only 2 Kentucky Derby winners have gone on to win The Classic in the same year Sunday Silence in 1989 & Unbridled in 1990.
In the races History only 2 Europeans have ever won Arcangues at a still record returned price of 133/1 in 1993 for Andre Fabre & Ravens Pass for John Gosden on the pro ride surface in 2008.
Prayer For Relief has taken on most of the best horses in North America with little success in the last year, his last win came in a small race at Remington Park in August last year. 



Cigar Street is a lightly raced improving 5 year old who has 1 Grade 3 to his name but has 5 wins from 8 starts to his name, injured after that Grade 3 victory it is good to see this promising horse back & a big run would not be a huge surprise.



Imperative has the services of Frankie Dettori in the saddle & would need the Italian to produce some magic to get him involved, well beaten on his last few starts but he did surprise Game On Dude in The Charles Town Classic earlier in the year.



Moreno was well beaten before being disqualified last time, prior to that he had been in decent form at Saratoga although he was well beaten in this race last year.



V.E Day appeared to run flat last time in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Grade 1 when going for a 5 timer after a big win in The Travers Grade 1, if you can forgive that run he is right in the picture in what looks an open race bar the hot favourite.



The 6 race unbeaten Shared Belief is that hot favourite who has won all of those races at East Coast tracks Hollywood Park, Golden Gate Fields, Los Alamitos, Del Mar & Santa Anita last time where he only scrambled home from Fed Biz. He brushed aside Toast Of New York at Del Mar earlier in the summer despite coming across the English runner. Even though his last 2 races were Grade 1's they were not as deep as this race so he must improve again here against some good quality 3 year olds & solid older horses.  



    
Bayern went off too fast on his only attempt at 10 furlongs when last in the Travers, he is proper fast miler who gets on the lead & is hard to catch. Must restrain that speed to last home here, if he does he is a player. 



Zivo has the look of a Classic winner as a stayer who comes from behind at a pace which will be suited by Santa Anita's straight, he was given far too much to do last time out when closing down Tonalist all the way to the line, player at big odds. 



Toast Of New York has taken Jamie Osborne to new heights that his well spoken could not have dreamed of, a runway winner of what has turned out to be a poor UAE Derby, he returned with a below par in a reasonable Grade 1 on his first Turf start at Belmont in the summer. He was then shipped across country to Del Mar where he chased home Shared Belief in 2nd, he was well beaten in the end that day & faces a massive task in a much tougher race here. 



Footbridge represents Godolphin has been acquitting himself well in decent company so far this year & appeals as the type to get involved at huge odds as a closer off the likely fast pace. 



Tonalist broke the Triple Crown dream when showing his stamina to win the Belmont, he then followed up with 2 defeats before new tactics were employed when held showing smooth headway to win Jockey Club Gold Cup in classy style, first try away from the West Coast tracks but does look a very classy individual. 



Candy Boy would be a surprise winner having been beaten by Bayern, Shared Belief & California Chrome so far this year.



   Kentucky Derby & Preakness winner California Chrome returns to his beloved Santa Anita after some of the gloss has been taken off his shine in his last 2 starts, he gave everything but in the end stamina faded in the Belmont & returned to a well contested Graded race at Parx after a 3 month break with a fairly disappointing effort although he did look rusty & in need of the run. Who knows how much running in all 3 legs of the Triple Crown had taken out of him. He has been working well back at Santa Anita in the build up to this race & will strip much fitter here, Big price if he is back to his best at his favourite track. 



Majestic Harbor gained a bog Grade 1 success here in the summer when everything fell into place for him, more needed in a deeper race.   



Big Cazanova is a speed horse who faded badly in the Jockey Club last time out, he only broke his maiden earlier this year when he arrived in the US, he had previously been a classy maiden in Peru winning a 12 furlong AW Grade 1 before being disqualified. Will need a huge effort to hold the speed back & to get involved in a tough race.   




Having backed California Chrome at a huge 33/1 Ante Post for the Kentucky Derby I will certainly not be disloyal to him now in what looks a very open race & a very big price 15/2 Racebets.



@fttfracing

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