Hello & welcome along to my final blog on The 2014 Melbourne Cup, the race is just hours away & the final field is assembled. Good luck to all horses, jockeys, trainers & owners that are involved in what promises to be another fabulous race.
Here are the vital stats form the last 20 years:
Here are the vital stats form the last 20 years:
10 x 6yo Winners
5 x 4yo Winners
3 x 5yo Winners
2 x 7yo Winners
Draw:
10 Winners Drawn between 1 - 10.
6 Winners Drawn between 11 - 16.
Only 4 Winners Drawn higher than 16;
(3 came from Barrier 21 & 1 from Barrier 22).
Weight:
5 x 54.5kg
2 x 55.5kg
3 x 51kg
2 x 56kg
1 x 56.5kg
1 x 55kg
1 x 53kg
1 x 52.5kg
1 x 52kg
1 x 50kg
1 x 49kg
1 x 58kg,
(Makybe Diva 2005).
(Makybe Diva 2005).
Average Winning Weight between:
51kg - 56kg,
Winner;
likely to carry 54.5kg -55.5kg.
Placed horses;
carry on average between: 53.5kg - 55.5kg
51kg - 56kg,
Winner;
likely to carry 54.5kg -55.5kg.
Placed horses;
carry on average between: 53.5kg - 55.5kg
Lead up races producing most winners:
7 x Caulfield Cup,
(3 x Winners / 3 x placed horses (2nd, 3rd & 4th) / 1 x unplaced horse).
5 x Cox Plate
(2 x Winners, 1 x 3rd & 2 x unplaced).
3 x Geelong Cup,
(Both French Trained Winners & Media Puzzle all 3 Won).
1 x Mackinnon,
(Unplaced: Viewed).
1 x Lexus,
(Winner: Shocking).
1 x Saab Quality,
(Winner: Brew).
Trainers:
Only 3 Trainers have Won multiple Cups in the last 20 years;
Lee Freedman x 3 (Makybe Diva '04, '05 x 2 & Doriemus '95).
Bart Cummings x 3 (Viewed '08, Rogan Josh '99 & Saintly '96).
Dermot Weld x 2 (Vintage Crop & Media Puzzle).
Jockeys:
Glen Boss x 3,
(Makybe Diva '03 - '05).
Damien Oliver x 3,
(Doriemus '95, Media Puzzle '02 & Fiorente 2013).
Horses / Mares & Geldings:
8 x Horses.
7 x Geldings.
5 x Mares,
(includes 3 Wins by Makybe Diva).
SP's:
12 x Winners between 5/2 - 9/1,
(5 favourites have won in the last 20 years)
7 x Winners between 10/1 - 20/1
1 x Winner bigger than 20/1,
(40/1 Viewed 2008).
International Winners:
2 x New Zealand
2 x French
2 x Irish
1 x Japanese
No English Trained horse has ever won the cup but 6 horses whose careers started in England have won the Cup;
Backwood (1921), Beldale Ball (1980), At Talaq (1986, H.Thomson-Jones), Jeune (1994, Geoff Wragg), Green Moon (2012 Harry Dunlop) & Fiorente (2013, Sir Michael Stoute).
2014 Melbourne Cup Field
Admire Rakti (Japan) 7yo H (Tomoyuki Umeda) 58.5kg 5/1
Strong powerful sort, he is a useful animal back home in the land of the rising sun, he was last seen finishing 13th of 18 in the Tenno Sho Grade 1 back in May this year.
He managed a close up 4th in last year's Japan Cup behind Gentildonna (see video below) & won a Grade 3 over 2m1f in Tokyo last season. His best run this year came when a well beaten 2nd behind the enigmatic Gold Ship at Hanshin in March over 1m5f.
Plenty to do with this much weight on his back if he is to follow his compatriot Delta Blues into the Melbourne Cup record books. Won on Australian debut with a big effort in Caulfield Cup recently, has even more to do under his small penalty & most likely has had his big win down under. For me better horses than him like Vinnie Roe have been beaten in a Melbourne Cup & I would be hugely surprised if he were able to win again.
Fawkner 7yo G (Robert Hickmott) 57kg 8/1
Decent horse down under who won last season's Caulfield Cup just getting up on the line, he finished 6th in the Cup off 54.5 afterwards appearing not to get home.
Has returned in better from this time around winning The Group 1 Caulfield Stakes & following that up with a cracking effort in the Cox Plate.
For me surely if he were to win a Cup it was last year with less weight.
Red Cadeaux 8yo G (E Dunlop) 57kg 20/1
Fantastic worldwide campaigner who has been 2nd in 2 Melbourne Cups carrying 56.5kg in 2013 & by the shortest of noses 2nd in 2011 carrying 53.5kg. He was also 8th carrying 55.5 in 2012. You cannot say at his age he is improving especially after his last run, it looks as though the Australian handicapper appears to have given him a mountain to climb but no one would begrudge him a win.
Protectionist (Ger) 4yo C (Andres Wohler) 56.5kg 7/1
German raider who has been on everyone's lips in the build up to the race, won a 4 runner Group 3 on his last European start on very soft ground at Deauville (4th has since come out to win a Group 2 on Arc Trials day) in good style looking all about stamina as he has done on all of his racecourse starts which is a worry for a race such as The Melbourne Cup as I have already mentioned horses with speed for shorter distances do hold a good record. New owners Australian Bloodstock will be hoping for better luck with this German import than they had with former German Derby winner Waldpark. Has run once in Australia when a staying on 4th in a good renewal of The Herbert Power, on that run who will need to turn around form with Signoff who is similarly weighted here, he got into a bit of trouble that day & took time to get going which is a concern for tomorrow as he is more of a lengthener than a quickener although he does have the master Ryan Moore who will be looking to bounce back from a distinctly average Breeders Cup.
Seismos (GB) 6yo G (Marco Botti) 56kg 50/1
Bounced back to his best in a funny running of The Geoffrey Free at Newbury earlier in the season, wouldn't be convinced he'd maintain his advantage over the 2nd that day (Willing Foe). German bred runners have an average record at present in the Cup (& in Australia) with only Lucas Cranach getting close with a 3rd in 2011.
Surprised he has made the race after a hugely disappointing effort on Australian debut in Caulfield Cup showing very little in what turned out to be a below par renewal.
Junoob 7yo G (C Waller) 55.5kg 28/1
Just useful when trained in England a few years ago & form finally took off in Australia from February this year winning 4 races including a Group 3. Improved again this campaign with a good win in the Group 1 Metropolitan Handicap & didn't enjoy the greatest of runs next time in The Caulfield Cup where he was finishing off nicely, will need even more to win a Cup but he could easily find it given the improvement he has shown this season although his stamina is far from guaranteed.
Royal Diamond (Ire) 8yo G (J Murtagh) 55.5kg 50/1
Been a top older staying horse for the fledgling training career of former top jockey Johnny Murtagh as he rode / trained him to victory in last season's QIPCO LOng Distance Cup. Ran ok in 6th in the Irish St Leger & has a chance of his best form at the weights but I feel that he would have been better coming down here a year or 2 earlier.
Gatewood (GB) 6yo H (J Gosden) 55kg 66/1
Well fancied for this race when last down in Australia in 2012 but failed to make the cut after just scraping home in a Geelong Cup back in 2012 & only managing a 6th in The Lexus. Remained in Australia with Chris Waller, safe to say he didn't enjoy the happiest of times during the end of 2012 & the first half of 2013, he was still a relatively inexperienced horse then which may not have helped & perhaps neither did the switching between trips.
Took his time to recapture his best after he returned to the UK but has bounced right back since the turn of the year winning 3 times in Listed & Group 3 company, arguably in better form than he was the last time he travelled to Australia. Shapes as if the 2 miles will not be an issue although has been done few favours by the draw. Fast ground is a concern his owners have shared publicly although its worth remembering he won handicaps at both Epsom & York on fast enough ground so it should inconvenience as much as they expect.
Mutual Regard (Ire) 5yo G (J Murtagh) 55kg 11/1
This season's shock Ebor winner who has showed improved form this season for new trainer Johnny Murtagh, looks a handy type who could enjoy a Melbourne Cup & interesting to see where he goes if he does indeed get on the plane.
The 40/1 was indeed not available for long & he has been steadily backed over the last few weeks, could easily run a monster race if the vibes are correct under 3 times winner Damien Oliver.
Who Shot TheBarman 6yo G (Chris Waller) 55kg 22/1
Former New Zealand trained runner who won the Grade 1 Auckland Cup earlier in the year, had shown little in 3 starts in Australia prior to his surprise win back in a handicap at Flemington under big weight classy at his best. Followed up in the Group 3 Bart Cummings but was disappointing in The Caulfield Cup. Again probably found that 1m4f race to short in that company & could easily get involved back up to 2 miles in the big one although may just lack the class needed for a win.
Willing Foe (GB) 7yo G (Saeed Bin Suroor) 55kg 22/1
Has been showing up well in his work since arriving down under & heads straight to the big race after an excellent effort in The Irish St Leger (see video below).
He is perfect for a Melbourne Cup & goes well fresh. Top New Zealand rider James McDonald is a fantastic booking for this lightly raced former Ebor winner who has long shaped as if the step up to 2 miles would suit. Draw could have been kinder but everything else remains in place for a big effort.
My Ambivalent (GB) 5yo M (Roger Varian) 54.5kg 40/1
Good quality mare who has improved in Europe over the last 2 seasons.
Has experienced a few issues down under which is not ideal in the build up to any race let alone a race of this magnitude, well worth a go at 2 miles as she shapes as though it will suit but it will be a huge ask on her first start since the end of June.
Has experienced a few issues down under which is not ideal in the build up to any race let alone a race of this magnitude, well worth a go at 2 miles as she shapes as though it will suit but it will be a huge ask on her first start since the end of June.
Precedence 9yo G (B & J Cummings) 54.5kg 100/1
Admirable old horse who has run in 3 Melbourne Cups over the years from 9th 2012, 11th 2011 & 8th 2010. Not up to it at this age.
Ran just ok at Moonee Valley on his last 2 starts & will likely struggle again here.
Brambles 6yo G (P Moody) 54kg 66/1
Improved animal so far this season winning a good quality Flemington handicap well under a big weight 4 starts ago following that up with consistent efforts in Group 1 company including an excellent effort when 4th in Caulfield Cup. Ran below par in Saturday's Mackinnon looking as though his busy schedule was catching up on him. Winner of a Queensland Derby over 12 furlongs in 2012 & looks as though 2 miles will help so if he can bounce back from his poor run he has an outside frame chance.
Mr O'Ceirin 7yo G (C Maher) 54kg 200/1
Been a good servant to connections but limitation exposed over the years.
Lidari 6yo H (P Moody) 53.5kg 50/1
Lidari 6yo H (P Moody) 53.5kg 50/1
Like stablemate Brambles he has been coming along nicely this campaign, didn't enjoy the best of runs in The Caulfield Cup but would have still hoped for better.
Far from guaranteed to stay this far.
Au Revoir 4yo C (A.Fabre) 53.5kg 66/1
form in France placing in minor Group company, was 4th of 5 to Ruler Of The World in The Prix Foy. Ran a promising race on his first Australian start last time but this is a huge ask from a poor draw.
Far from guaranteed to stay this far.
Au Revoir 4yo C (A.Fabre) 53.5kg 66/1
form in France placing in minor Group company, was 4th of 5 to Ruler Of The World in The Prix Foy. Ran a promising race on his first Australian start last time but this is a huge ask from a poor draw.
Opinion 5yo G (C Waller) 53.5kg 66/1
Former Royal Ascot winner last year & still owned by Highclere. Has been running well in Australia at trips short of his best as now he looks all about stamina, performed admirably in The Sydney Cup earlier in the year on ground that would have soft enough. Has returned this campaign in decent form running his best race in The Metropolitan two starts back when staying on all the way to the line in 2nd. Shapes as though he has a good race in him at this trip on fast ground which he has for the first time since relocating down under here. Every chance of getting involved from his light weight at huge odds.
Araldo 7yo G (Michael Moroney) 53kg 25/1
Decent performer in Germany last season & did well in limited starts in Australia, winning the Bart Cummings on disqualification of Sea Moon. Only 3rd in the Lexus on his next start. Progressing nicely this time around with good runs in the Metropolitan & an unlucky effort in last weekend's Caulfield Cup, interesting outsider who is improving at the right time although has been dealt a huge blow with an awful draw.
Lucia Valentina 4yo M (Kris Lees) 53kg 8/1
Not a mare I had considered to start with but charged into contention with a dominant display in The Turnbull after a down the field effort on the George Main. Didn't enjoy any luck in the Caulfield Cup coming even wider than the winner Admire Rakti before flying home for 3rd. Not guaranteed to stay the 2 miles but is hard to ignore given her current well being from a low weight.
Unchain My Heart 8yo M (David Hayes & Tom Dabernig) 51.5kg 250/1
Well beaten on her last two Stakes start in the Herbert Power & Caulfield Cup. No more than a useful staying handicapper who is merely making up the numbers here.
Signoff 5yo G (David Weir) 51kg + 1kg penalty 7/1
Stamina is his strong suit judging on an authoritative victory in Saturday's Lexus which earned him a spot in the big race. The Magic Man Joao Moreira keeps the ride on this progressive in races around the 10 furlong mark who finished ahead of Protectionist (who will also enjoy the step up to 2 miles) on their Herbert Power meeting. Odds have been constricted since Saturday & I would not want to get involved at present in a horse that has more place material on him than that of a winner.
Selections:
My two Ante Post picks have made the race although there draws could have been better;
My two Ante Post picks have made the race although there draws could have been better;
Willing Foe 33/1 E/W
Gatewood 66/1 E/W
I will add to that a horse who I have followed for a long time since arriving in Australia as he keeps running promising races over trips that look well short of what appeals as potentially his best trip of 2 miles on fast ground.
Opinion 66/1 E/W Bet365 1/4 odds 4 places
I will add to that a horse who I have followed for a long time since arriving in Australia as he keeps running promising races over trips that look well short of what appeals as potentially his best trip of 2 miles on fast ground.
Opinion 66/1 E/W Bet365 1/4 odds 4 places
@fttfracing
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