Dubai International Racing Carnival Night Two: Thursday 15th January 2015

Hello & welcome along to the blog, trust you are all well & importantly in good form. 

Once again the domestic action has failed to inspire me personally although a handy treble courtesy of the 'Boys in Blue' at the newly christened 'Chelmsford City' on Sunday did help to banish some of those January blues.  

The Carnival returns for a second night's action on Thursday, overall it is not a patch on the opening night's salvo but is still by a miles better than the action we will see this week.

Its Guineas trials week with decent sized fields in both events;

The fillies open up the card with the usual suspects Godolphin & Mike De Kock locking horns once more (De Kock has dirt runners despite the comments he made last week that were taken out of context). 
Starting with the home team as it were; 
Godolphin have 3 declared runners Local Time, Comedy Queen & Good Place. 

Local Time has a Group 3 penalty to carry courtesy of a win in a extremely weak renewal of the Oh So Sharp last backend & also has 2 decent wins on the Polytrack at Kempton to her name. There is little or no dirt form in her pedigree but as a light farmed quick actioned filly (similar to Ihtimal) who has won on an artificial surface she gives herself a chance to handle it & last year I was told that she was Godolphin's main hope for the UAE Classics.

Comedy Queen is unexposed with just the one start to her name a Kempton maiden win when unfancied in a slow time last September, she has been working well at home on the dirt surface at Marmoom hence why she wears the first colours here but as we saw with Outstrip last week working & racing are entirely different entities. Her hope lies on her sire Distorted Humour who has already had 3 winners on the new dirt surface, she has the most scope to improve as a 3yo as she is a sizable filly. 

Good Place completes the lineup of Godolphin fillies & she is ridden by Dane O'Neill which was a winning combination in the first last week, she has had 4 starts to date the last of those when last in the Fillies Mile. She won the Hyperion Conditions Stakes at Ascot a race Godolphin have used before with future UAE classic runners (Feedyah, Lovely Pass & Falls Of Lora). Her sire Street Cry is the leading dirt sire at Meydan with 4 winners & plenty of placegetters so far, her dam is Australian bred but has already produced the useful Press Room who has minor placed 

form on the new dirt surface here most recently at the end of December.

Mike De Kock relies on Ad Idem who has raced just the twice winning a Clairwood maiden on debut last January before finishing a close up 3rd in a Grade 3 at Scottsville in April. On pedigree it is unlikely that this surface will be to her liking & she will no doubt need the run anyway.

Bakheeta & Ouseala both make their racecourse debuts for Rasheed Boursely who back in the old days of Nad Al Sheba would often get a cast off who improved for the dirt surface namely old Star Crowned, neither have much dirt form in their pedigree though & the lack of experience will count against them. 

Favorina was last of 13 on her dirt debut in a maiden here last month & has plenty to find here. Icecapada won a 6f turf maiden at Ovrevoll last October only to be disqualified for her riders misuse of the whip so she clearly has ability, but like so many in this race she has little dirt form in her pedigree & is set to struggle here. 

Runner Runner completes the lineup for George Baker, she was 2nd in a Hanover Listed race at the end of last season on soft ground & has 2 decent pieces of AW form to her name but again has no dirt form in her pedigree so its taken on trust that she will act on it even if she does she has plenty to find.   

Godolphin should have this to themselves but its not a betting event for me although my preference would be for Local Time.

Race 2 is a 10f dirt handicap with 10 runners going to post;

Storm Belt heads the weights after 2 excellent runs on the new surface including a comfortable win over Henry Clay & a 2nd in a good quality Listed race last time, will need more again here from his new mark but he cannot be ruled out given his liking for the surface. Energio Davos has been in competitive form in the UK on the AW surface for his last 3 starts of marks in & around his current lofty rating, he took advantage of a drop to 98 when causing a surprise back in the summer at Haydock but since has been held each time exactly like his time at the Carnival last year of marks over 100. He has 2 pieces of form on dirt when trained in Brazil but not enough to suggest he will improve dramatically for it so is best watched at present. 
Castle Guest last ran down the field in a maiden hurdle at Galway last summer. previously he had found marks in & around 100 tough after finishing 2nd in a poor Listed race behind a 66/1 winner. Has some form at a low level on Dundalk's AW surface so that gives some hope to handling a dirt surface but in truth looks held by the handicapper at present. 

Duke Derby won over 1m5f on dirt at Jagerso last time out & also won a Swedish Derby on dirt at the same course last year, that surface is slightly different to Meydan's but at least we know he can handle a type of dirt surface, not unreasonably handicapped & needs respecting. 

La Bernardin found plenty of trouble last week when staying on for a well beaten 3rd place finish, still needs to prove that he can go on from his new mark. 

Pinzolo ran in last year's Derby after making all to win a Listed event at Newmarket, he finished his season with laboured placings in Listed company at Windsor & Chester. His pedigree is turf through & through so I personally cannot see him handling this at all, its interesting that he is now not owned by Godolphin but instead runs for Sultan Ali. 

Beyond Empire brings US dirt form to the party on his first start for David Simcock & owners the Hays, he has been racing mostly in allowance company on his last few starts in & around this sort of trip. Interesting to see how he goes as he is the first horse with recent American form to race on Meydan's new dirt surface. 

Famous Kid comes into the race on the upgrade & on a mark he looks capable of bettering, his last run is best forgotten as it was a huge field end of season handicap & he never got in the race. The time before that he made all to win a Newmarket handicap in good style. He promises to suited but dirt as he is by Street Cry; his half brother Kirklees was 4th in a round of the Al Maktoum Challenge back in Nad Al Sheba days plus he showed an affinity with the AW surfaces while another half brother Mastery was a AW winner & finished 5th in a World Cup on Tapeta. His half sister Magic Tree has produced last year's Dubai World Cup runner up Mukhadram. Add to all the UAE form in his pedigree his usual forward run style which has been well suited to the dirt races we have seen so far also gives plenty of hope that he will handle & improve for the surface. 

Zain Eagle's best run last season came when nearly nicking the John Smith's Cup from the front at York primarily before that run he had been known as an AW horse. His dam was a Grade 1 placer on dirt & has produced plenty of dirt winners in the US including Coastal Storm so he makes plenty of appeal from his current mark. 

Layali Al Andalus was beaten a long way on his first try on this dirt surface back in early December so he now must prove its a surface he likes from what looks a reasonable handicap mark.     

Storm Belt is respected but he could find it hard giving weight to Godolphin's Famous Kid but I would also respect Duke Derby to run into a place.

Race 3 is over half a furlong shorter than Race 2 & is also on dirt, just the 9 runners go to post here in what looks an average race by Carnival standards;

Asatir won on his UAE debut after a year on the sidelines at Jebel Ali back in November grinding out the win from behind off a reduced handicap mark however he failed to back that up at the same course next time although he could easily have bounced after a long layoff previously, still has potential from this mark here & has to be respected with dirt form in the book. 

Stormadal was a useful 3yo handicap last season who deserves his rating, his half brother Khor Dubai failed to act on Jebel Ali's dirt surface which is a concern so he may well be best watched. 

Lord Provost is lightly raced for his age, quite how he still has a mark in the high 80's is beyond me as his form is average at best on dirt & turf, his half brother State Law has won on Meydan's new dirt surface at the end of last year but he has also looked limited. Jeeraan won at Al Ain on his UAE debut then ran flat there next time out from a higher mark, another to have come back from a long layoff & does have the potential to improve on pedigree encountering dirt for the first time. 

Layl was 2nd at Southwell at the start of January last year & has not been seen since, all his UK form bar one race was on an AW surface so he should cope with the dirt being by Street Cry, sure to be ready for this after a long time out & could pop up at a price. 

Tonabrocky managed to win a nom carnival race last year but failed to back it up back up in grade next time, Pivotal his sire is also sire of Faulkner who has excelled on the dirt so far this season so there is hope there although he does look to need more if he is to get involved. Knavery is former Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford's debut runner as a Trainer, his 4 runs have been useful with the promise of more to come as he tackles dirt for the first time from what looks a tempting mark in a weak race. 

Street Act handled the dirt surface with aplomb back in November & has not been seen since which is a slight concern, he needs to improve again from his new mark but this is a weak race & he could easily cope. 

Shihab gets in off bottom weight after a win at Al Ain last time following a good 2nd behind an improver here at Meydan in November on the dirt, player with stable continuing in good form.   

Worst race of the night without question & a non betting event for me but I could easily see Knavery going well for Simon Cries ford.

Race 4 is the colts turn to go on trial for the UAE 2000 Guineas in a few weeks time;

Godolphin's Group 3 winning son of Hard Spun Maftool is head & shoulders clear on ratings at 112 compared to his nearest rival on 100. He has a dirt pedigree & an action that suggests this surface will be fine, to be fair he can run 10lbs below his best & still win. 

Volatile is next best in according to the ratings of 100 but that mark comes mainly from a fine 3rd in a weak Cornwallis over 5f last year. His previous win resulted in a clear cut win on dirt back in Sweden, steps up to 7f for the first time here & will need more against some unexposed types. 

Ajwad is Mike De Kock's main dirt hope this year judging by his comments as this former Argentinian colt makes his UAE debut. He finished 2nd at Palermo's dirt track on racecourse debut & duly won next time on turf before finishing 6th in his last run in a Grade 2 on heavy going at San Isidoro. Should be fine on this dirt surface on breeding & likely to step up on what he's achieved so far here. 

Godolphin also field Zephuros who has been beaten 3 times in Novice events since his debut win, little of no dirt form in his pedigree so his ability to act on it is taken on trust.

Anbar & Big Arbab make their racecourse debuts in this for their respective debuts both have turf pedigree & plenty to find. 
Initial looked potentially useful early on last year for Dermot Weld but failed to progress in Nurseries, he has switched to the UAE & encounters dirt for the first time. Out of Argentine dam who had form on dirt he has chances if handling it ok of running into a place or better. 

Mubtaahij broke his maiden in December here on the dirt surface in reasonable enough style finishing ahead of some poor animals, he is open to plenty of improvement & should not be underestimated just because Soumillion has chosen Ajwad ahead of him. 

Padlock easily broke his maiden at Southwell on his last start which gives him chances of handling the dirt surface as does his sire the late Key Of Luck who won the Duty Free at Nad Al Sheba in 1997, finished 4th in a World Cup the following year & 2nd in a Pimlico Special. 

Pasticcio didn't make the grade at Godolphin & has plenty to find on figures tackling dirt for the first time. 

Unorthodox has just the one maiden win at Dundalk to his name achieved by a neck, his sire was best on Turf in the US but his dam has plenty of dirt form in her pedigree, could be anything. 

Westhoughton is exposed in Nurseries & races of a similar ilk in the UK & has plenty to find on his dirt debut. 

Wild Citizen has just the one win in a turf maiden quite comfortably at Overvoll last October to his name but has a US dirt pedigree all the way through & should improve for this surface so could easily go well at odds.        
                     

Maftool should prove hard to beat if handling the dirt as he is expected too but its a non betting event for me.

Race 5 is over 10f on Turf for horses rated 110 - 100;

Ocean Tempest is back out after failing to handle dirt last week over a trip that he has yet to prove he stays, plenty to do from his current mark.

Old Star Empire usually needs a run or two to get him rolling & he will most likely be aimed at the staying races later in the Carnival although as an 8yo he is not getting any younger. Tenor joins stablemate Ocean Tempest in this race & also attempts 10f for just the second time in his career (easily beaten last time at that distance), all his progressive form last year was at the mile so I struggle to see him staying let alone winning from a mark this high. 

Elleval returns to attempt to win a 3rd race in Dubai in the last 3 years, he is of the same mark that he won on Tapeta last year with young Conor King's claim a big help & should be very competitive here if he is ready to roll first time out. 

Without Fear has struggled in all his previous Meydan runs & I do not see that changing here. 

Mr Pommeroy has struggled in minor continental pattern company so far & perhaps his best 2 pieces of form last year were a 6th in the French Derby to The Grey Gatsby in a bunched finish & a 3rd over the mile in the Group 3 Prix Daphnis behind the useful Master Carpenter. Soft ground has not looked his cup of tea so far so you would imagine that this quicker surface might suit perfectly like it did his sire Linngari who won 2 renewals of the Al Fahidi Fort in Dubai. Not harshly treated on handicap debut for his new stable that of Salem Al Ghadayer who had some promising runners last week, he is certainly worth taking serious note of here. 

Sennockian Star is a rare Carnival runner for Mark Johnston, a tough battling handicapper who enjoyed a fine year in the UK last year. Usually needs a run but more than capable of getting involved if ready to roll.  

El Estruendoso reverts quickly back to turf after hating the dirt last week, mark remains the stumbling block on turf over a distance he has yet to face. 

Haafaguinea only ran once in the UK last year when easily beaten in a conditions event at Epsom in August after 2 excellent runs in Dubai of mark's of 102 on Tapeta & Turf, returns here 3lbs higher but remains capable of winning, stable has started in good form & you could not rule out.

         Ottoman Empire has been a grand old servant over the years & enjoyed a fine Carnival last time around, hated the dirt back in December here & reverts to turf for the first time since Pontefract in September 2013. His improvement came about last year on Tapeta which is worry as he has been easily beaten on turf from marks lower than this in the past. So Beautiful has failed to progress from the promising young horse he was in France a few years ago & still looks too high in the weights to be fancied here.      

Mr Pommeroy (NAP) :is worth siding with, plenty is in his favour & he could easily be better than these.

   

The big race of the night is The Dubawi Stakes over 6f on dirt for the first time since the races inception; 

Carnival regular Russian Soul gained a deserved win in Group 3 company on the Tapeta last year after a string of top efforts for years, there is no form in the book to suggest that dirt will be his cup of tea other than the fact that he thrives in the Dubai sun so he is respected as usual. 

Last year's impressive winner United Color returns after his usual starting point at Jebel Ali in December where he was very disappointing, after his win last year so much was expected but he ran disappointedly twice thereafter before running an excellent race on World Cup night to finish 3rd in the Golden Shaheen. On breeding this new dirt surface should be right his street although it's worth remembering he has yet to win on it at Jebel Ali but perhaps that straight 6f is not what he needs & the turning 6f on dirt here will see him in a better light. 

Touch Gold has come up through the ranks to contest at this higher level, he has risen from 65 - 80 company to win his last race at a non carnival meeting late last year of a mark of 90. He is now rated 95 tackling Meydan's dirt surface for the first time, he has plenty of winning form at Jebel Ali so is worthy of note. 

Almargo didn't get involved in a good turf handicap last week & now reverts to a surface he has never raced on before & that on breeding is unlikely to suit. Similar comments apply to Caspian Prince who although ran better than Almargo did last week in his race the 5f sprint he has plenty to find in this company encountering dirt for the first time, he does have useful AW form but this will be another kettle of fish. Perhaps his one saving grace is that he will blast of in front so he will avoid the kickback. 

Conveyance ran a huge race in a cracking Listed race here back in December as he attempted to make all but was collared late by the classy Rafeej. Should not be underestimated as a former classy US dirt performer. 

Stablemate & the choice of first jockey Richard Mullen is the 9yo former Golden Shaheen winner Reynaldothewizard, his form took off to a new level in Dubai on the Tapeta surface after being no more than a promising US dirt performer. Last year he ran well without winning in the top races & he is not getting any younger. Out of the 2 runners from the stable I would slightly prefer Conveyance. 

Muarrab finally gets his chance to run at the Carnival with the introduction of the dirt surface on which he has been nigh on unbeatable on at Jebel Ali winning 5 from 6 there since 2013. He ran once in 2014 coming back late in December to win the race he had won back in 2013 again, this time he beat United Color further & Fityaan upheld the form with a good run last week. This will be his first attempt at Listed company which has already looked well upto, as long as he does not bounce he must hold outstanding claims here.

Muaanid won a decent handicap on New Year's Eve here by nearly 3 lengths on his first attempt on dirt, a useful 2nd string for owner Sheikh Hamdan. 

United Color & Conveyance are respected but this is Muarrab's time to shine.

The last race on the card is an 8f turf handicap for horses rated 105 - 95;

It features the return to the track of the former top class South African racehorse Slumdogmillionaire who has not been seen since winning the Horse Chestnut Stakes Grade 1 in March 2013, that was his 3rd start back since coming back from a bone chip injury sustained after winning the S A Classic Grade 1 back in March 2012. He has now been bought by the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov & is in the care of Doug Watson. Fascinating to see how much ability remains. 

Royal Ridge reverts back to turf after travelling well for a long way in Round 1 of The Al Maktoum Challenge last week before dropping away badly, well behind Slumdogmillionaire when they met in 2012 but has potential back on turf although must first show his well being after the way he finished the race last week.

Avon Pearl did me a good turn last year when bolting up on Tapeta from a mark 0f 100 last year, he has struggled since at various racecourses throughout Europe but ran well back in Sweden last time although the winner Berling did nothing for that form last week. Chances from only 2lb higher back on the turf here.

Captain Lars progressed through handicaps in South Africa to win in Listed company on his last start in March last year, trip should be fine & has a good chance of getting involved.

Free Wheeling was another of my Carnival winners last year on his favoured Tapeta surface, he has failed in 2 years of racing in Turf in the UK which is a concern.

Secret Admirer has been running without success at a minor level for former trainer Andre Fabre, looks to be on quite a high mark starting out for his new Scandinavian trainer here.

Horsted Keynes has transferred to David Simcock after an abortive 2 race spell with Graham Motion in the US, if that experience has not left its mark on this relatively lightly raced animal he still has the potential to be a high class handicapper although he is rated as though he already is one. Seriously unlucky in last year's Buckingham Palace when stopped plenty of times before finishing 2nd of only a 1lb lower mark than he races off here, chances. 

Jally was disappointing last week after some nice runs in France, needs to show more here although booking of young Cam Hardie takes the eye. 

Belgian Bill has the ability to win one of these but can rarely be trusted to put it all in & is extremely hard to predict when he does. 

Dark Emerald improved markedly throughout last term & rarely ran a bad race, usually up with the pace he is capable of getting involved & is said to be thriving in Dubai as is his trainer. 

Jawhar didn't appear to handle the dirt last time out & switches back here, mark is problematique though. 

Rostrum has not been seen since early 2013 & it remains to be seen how much ability remains, did win a Carnival handicap that year but has plenty on his plate now at the age of 8. 

Slipper Orchid is a good quality Irish mare on both the AW & Turf, all of her wins bar one have come at 7f which is a slight concern. She has been competitive of this mark before & is one for the short list from a trainer that habitually does well at the Carnival.

Machete Mark is another useful ex Irish handicapper who makes his debut for new trainer Salem Al Ghadayer here, this is a career high mark & he will need to have improved a packet to get involved here as his last albeit impressive win was of a mark of 90. Has form at a mile in good 3yo handicaps at Ascot so there could be hope if his new stable has improved him. 

Billingsgate showed steady improvement throughout last season, a typical Godolphin Carnival type there should be plenty more to come as he only just does enough each time. Old Derbaas has plenty of ability but now at the age of 9 you'd be worried for him especially as he has still been struggling despite a slipping mark.

Fascinating to see how dual Grade 1 winner Slumdogmillionaire gets on.

Captain Lars is another South African who has chances while Horsted Keynes has promised much but is best watched after his US adventure & Avon Pearl may just need this so it looks best left to Billingsgate.   

        

@fttfracing