Qipco British Champions Day or Non Champions Day if you prefer?

Hello once more & welcome along to my musings on Saturday's action from a damp Ascot on the much maligned British Champions Day; which is set to be run on very soft tacky holding ground & unfortunately features a distinct lack of Champions, in fact only 1 of the Top 20 Longines Thoroughbred Rankings features on the card the old warrior Cirrus Des Aigles who at the grand old age of 8 is joint 14th on 123, there are various reasons as to why so many of the Top 20 are missing; injury causing retirement or swerving the event due to the prevailing bad ground. 

The next top rated horse running on the card is French 3yo colt Charm Spirit who is joint 21st in the rankings on a rating of 122 with the 3rd highest rated runner on the card the shock 2000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder who is joint 30th on 120.

As for the QIPCO Champions Series overall leaderboard none of the Top 4 have made it with again old Cirrus & Night Of Thunder shining the light for the series. 

The individual categories fair better with G Force who sits in joint 2nd taking in the Sprint, Night Of Thunder sits in 4th place in the mile division, the middle distance series has just 1 representative from the top 15 in old Cirrus which is disappointing. 

Leading Light is currently joint first & can win the crown outright in the staying division. Lastly the fillies category sees just 3rd placed Integral taking her chance on the day. 

As a concept there's no doubting that Champions Day is a great idea but now after 4 years its time to for the organisers to hold their hands & admit that the date is wrong due to  the prevailing weather conditions in Ascot at this time of year, for the last 3 years the ground has got progressively worse from soft, soft (heavy in places) to this year which is currently Heavy (softer in places). You cannot expect a day billed as the culmination of the season to attract all the stars when the ground is as bad as it has been as unfortunately not every classy horse can act on this kind of ground, the organisers were fortunate for the first 3 years to have Frankel in 2010 & 2011, plus the classy Farrh who 
was superb on all grounds & old warrior Cirrus Des Aigles who returns for a 4th crack at The Champion Stakes. 

These horses however do not come around all the time & even though the day has been unlucky this year with star miler Kingman missing due to injury & Australia (I personally never thought he would run here even before he went from being a superstar to just a decent horse when The Grey Gatsby beat him) also departed due to a small knock others are missing out for one reason only......the ground has put them off which has to be a big kick in the teeth to organisers as even the superb prize money cannot draw in the top horses that are left.

Ascot unfortunately since the redevelopment has suffered when the rains come as it holds moisture for a long long time, throughout October in the last 9 years since the redevelopment the ground has been good to soft or worse over 20 times (soft or heavy over 10 times) compare that the racecourse that has lost most due to the creation of Champions Day (Newmarket) which has been no worse than soft in the last 9 years & predominantly is a much better draining course which even at this time of year generally produces decent ground.

We all know since the redevelopment Ascot has been propelled to the premier course in the country & has (only just) better transport links; 

Ascot station is bigger, has a more frequent service & is closer to the course but the town is much smaller than Newmarket & on race days becomes gridlocked before & after especially at the Heatherwood roundabout. 

Newmarket of course has a shocking train service & the station is basically a shack barely big enough to swing a cat in, it also suffers from being quite a distance from the course but the road links are no worse than Ascot even allowing for a build up of traffic there are plenty of ways round it where in Ascot it is just one road to the course.

For me I do not see why Champions Day should not be at the Headquarters of racing like so many other big races in the year are as it is no worse than Ascot.

Clearly this will not change & the gurus behind the big meeting are convinced Ascot is the place to be so if this is the case then the date needs to be changed which as I discussed last year is not that easy due to the European pattern but I cannot see why it could not be moved a week early to swap places with the Cesarewitch at Newmarket so it would sit a week behind the Arc, I do not see that as an issue as only a handful of horses attempt to run in The Arc & The Champion Stakes (Ruler Of The World) this year & last year attempted it. A horse like Cirrus may be affected but he cannot go on forever & if you moved Champions Day to the Sunday (Future Champions Day on the Saturday) he would still have just over a week between races.

Anyway I should get on with the racing now starting with The Long Distance Cup;

             Biographer has his ground like he did last year when disappointing, there is a chance though that he is finally in slightly better form as he has shown small signs of returning to form...they are only small signs though. 

Flying Officer made a pleasing return to action after 6 months off when chasing home Pallasator in a Newmarket Listed event last time when not getting the run of the race, he will love the ground & is a real player being a newcomer to the staying ranks. 

Forgotten Rules has a big reputation & attempts to emulate stablemate Rite Of Passage who won this 2 years ago, so far he is all about potential & this requires plenty more. 

Leading Light the Gold Cup winner but one of many ridden to sleep by Richard Kingscote last time at the Curragh attempts to bounce back over a course he clearly relishes, should be ok on the ground but all his very best efforts have come on a much faster surface. Pallasator made the jump to Listed class when making his superior fitness count against Flying Officer last time, he is a huge horse who has always looked as though he could progress into a decent performer, player on ground that will be near perfect for him. 

Whiplash Willie didn't enjoy the best of runs getting stuck in behind horses last time in the Cadran last time when I expected him to go very close, he has finally got his ground over his distance & can get involved. Estimate showed guts & tenacity to grind out a win at Doncaster last time, she loves Ascot & everything will have been geared to her signing off on a high. Big Orange gets a deserved step back into Group company after a gutsy win under a penalty on soft ground here last time, he is a huge animal & we just do not know how much more improvement he has left in the tank, should not be underestimated. Marzocco was out battled by Big Orange last time & unfortunately he just looks extremely hard to place. 

Good race probably the strongest on the whole card, I like Flying Officer 12/1 E/W generally available to step but would not be surprised to see Big Orange go well also.

The Champions Sprint has a relatively strong field of 17 runners going to post including a former winner Maarek who won 2 years ago; 

Absolutely So was easily beaten in a Listed event at Newbury last time on soft ground, he had previously won at Listed level but this requires much more. 

Alben Star has been a tough & consistent handicapper this season who could easily outrun his odds from a good draw. An Saighdiur looks the only real pace in the race so he could have a huge bearing on the outcome without being good enough to win himself, he will toe the low drawn horses into & they may well be wear the winner comes from. 

Baccarat has yet to win on ground this soft & so far has yet to show he can cope in this grade. Eton Forever is more at home in small field Listed races or big field handicaps over this course, his stamina & ability to handle the ground will see him in good stead. Gordon Lord Byron is a superb old horse who ran as well as ever in the Haydock Sprint last time but so far in 4 starts at Ascot he has failed to show his best. 

Gregorian is a similar horse to Aljamaheer not up to top class at a mile or 6f but useful at 7f, he has his ground here & tries again but will likely come up short once more. Humidor was well beaten in this last season but has been in much better form this time around, still that said he has never been up to this class before. 

Intibaah has been a long term fancy for this race ever since he won a course & distance handicap last season, he has only been seen twice since winning at Haydock comfortably before never getting involved from his low draw last time, is now drawn in 11 five away from the likely pace setter An Saighdiur. May well have needed his last run & remains overpriced. 

Jack Dexter was 2nd but a well held 2nd last season, his form has been shocking in truth so far this year & seems ludicrously short for me despite ground being in his favour. Joey's Destiny was well beaten in a decent midweek handicap 4 days ago & has no designs on getting involved here. 

Maarek has been conspicuous by his absence in the finish in the top sprints in the last few months looking ill at ease on the faster surface, if he bounced back on this really soft ground it would not surprise. 

Tropics continues to be in & out as he got into trouble here last time in The Bengough but never looked like getting near the principles. Whether he wants ground this soft is a concern for me. 

G Force finally came good when surprising in the Haydock Sprint Cup last time after being talked on all his previous starts, supplemented into this race, ground should be ok for him but can he do it again? 

Gathering Power & Viztoria represent the current master trainer of sprinters Edward Lynam; they finished 1st & 2nd last week in a Curragh Listed event with Viztoria winning comfortably, ground has come for her again her in a race she was a fast finishing 3rd in last year, has to be involved once again & is drawn just behind the likely pace. 

Gathering Power has progressed throughout the season & if ridden a bit closer could easily be on the premises to potentially cause a surprise on ground she handles fine.

 Lucky Kristale was pulled out due to a bog here last time & surely it would be a surprise were she to take part let alone get involved after showing little all season.    

Am already on Intibaah 33/1 E/W Paddy Power at his current price so am happy to stick with him but looking at the race as a whole Viztoria 15/2 BetVictor must have a huge chance.  

Fillies & mares who would most likely not get a chance to win a Group 1 are presented with one in the next as once again the field for the 1m4f race is well below the standard you would expect. Albarsharah has gained a step up into Group company after a superb win in a Listed contest from the front at Newmarket last week, she has always been held in high regard by connections so why not have a go, ground is potentially an issue with her American pedigree but she has won on soft once before. 

Chiquita never got involved in the Arc & is so far failing to live up to her £6 million price tag, she is extremely quirky & so far she has shown her best form on good to firm. Cubanita is a lovely filly who is honest & is around 5lbs better on wet ground. She ran a great trial for this at Newbury last time & earlier in the season beat the much improved Noble Mission at the Berkshire venue earlier in the year. She has a fabulous opportunity to gain a first Group 1 success. Pollyana has to prove her stamina on her first start at 12 furlongs although she is out of an Unfuwain mare so she has every chance of getting home, she is just a useful filly in France. Seal Of Approval caused a big shock last year which further illuminated the fact that this is not a genuine Group 1 contest, she has been pretty disappointing for the majority of the season showing glimpses but no more although in saying that you would not be surprised if she were to be cherry ripe here. 

Silk Sari was hugely impressive last time at Doncaster & is improving at the right time, ground should be ok for her so is feared. Tasaday is a lovely filly but just struggles to truly get home over this 12 furlongs, place looks her best effort. 

We'll Go Walking has just one maiden win to her name & would be a real surprise winner. Hadaatha is improving at a rate of knots, after an easy win at Yarmouth she followed that up with a cracking effort upped to this grade in France last time, ground should be fine but stamina to prove & this might come a tad quick. 

Madame Chiang is the real sneaky player in the field she looked a potentially, she should never have ran in the Oaks as the ground was too quick & ran pretty in a slowly run Vermeille after 3 months off last time. She should stay & will love the ground.       

Think Cubanita at 13/2 Stan James / Paddy Power has a big chance. 

I won't beat around the bush it has to be one of the worst renewals of a QEII I can ever remember despite how much spin you put on it, its basically a Group 3 masquerading as a Group 1. 

Brendan Brackan is a useful minor Group horse in Ireland but has plenty of lengths to turn around with Custom Cut on earlier running. 

Captain Cat deserves to have been supplemented after coming back in excellent heart this season, needs a strong pace which may not happen here & is far from guaranteed to appreciate the ground as all his recent form has been on better but he is a big lad; I was at Ascot 2 years ago when he finished an unlucky 2nd on soft ground in a handicap so it would not surprise me if he got involved. 

Custom Cut has been a revelation since transferring to David O'Meara winning his last 5 starts progressing from Listed to the biggest success of his career when winning the Joel Stakes Group 2 in good style after dictating the running last time out, I would hope jockey's will be wise to this here though & he will have Graphic to take him on but you wouldn't want to discount him in a weak Group 1. 

Graphic is the other likely front runner who needs to bounce back from a rare blip when last behind Custom Cut at York last time out, he has improved from handicaps winning 6 of his last 12 starts & finishing placed on all bar one of those starts. He would be nowhere near good enough in a normal Group 1 but this not up to the quality & he loves the ground, whoever gets into a battle with him will know they have. 

Kingsbarns finished an excellent 3rd last year but has since been well below that form including over 12 furlongs last time. 

Top Notch Tonto was one of the most improved horses in training last year & ran an excellent 2nd in this event, this year has been much harder & despite flashes he has yet 
to grace the winners enclosure. Chance depends solely on this bad ground. 

Tullius will adore this ground & ran ok after a break behind Custom Cut, this has to be his chance of winning a Group 1. 

Charm Spirit is a pretty decent horse back in France winning his last 3 starts including in The Prix Du Moulin last time, he has previously scrambled home at Chantilly in very soft ground in what has turned out to be a poor race from Yuften (well beaten since) & Shifting Power (well beaten since). Does he really want proper soft stamina sapping ground from what we have seen its open to debate. 

Night Of Thunder our shock Guineas winner is apparently home & hosed according to many, I am unsure where that view comes from as he was beaten fair & square in The Moulin last time, he didn't stay & wasn't good enough in the Eclipse. Chance for me depends on ground which as a 2yo he won on soft ground twice in lesser company over 6f, this is a completely different kettle of fish over a stiff mile on bad ground at the end of a long season. Clearly though this is the best chance he has of adding another Group 1 to his CV. 

Stablemate the overall disappointing Toormore was beaten in a poor Group race in Turkey last time continuing the theme of his season in generally looking as though he has not trained on. Never really raced on this kind of ground & plenty to prove for me. 
Integral takes on the boys for the first time in her career in the back of a career best effort when dominating an extremely strong Sun Chariot field at Newmarket earlier in the month. She handles soft but whether real sticky ground will be what she wants is the question. If can cope with it then she must have a real chance of gaining the most prestigious success of her career.

Not a race I can personally a bet in so I will most likely go to the bar. 

  

So to the big race of the day The QIPCO Champion Stakes & similar to the QEII its not the greatest; 

Al Kazeem doesn't handle this ground & has been found out in Group 1 company on his last 2 starts. 

The evergreen phenomenon that is Cirrus Des Aigles has been handed a much easier task than he has faced in the last 2 years with no Frankel & no Farrh in opposition. He was unluckily thrown out when winning a 4th Prix Dollar last time & is clearly back in very good heart, can he win another Group 1 at the age of 8 that is the question. 

Noble Mission bids to emulate his superb brother Frankel by winning here, since he has been reinvented as a front-runner on soft ground he has not looked back, he has with the help of the British weather been given a fabulous chance of gaining a Group 1 on home soil. Others may not see which way he goes. 

Pether's Moon has been supplemented & you can understand why as he clearly revels on bad ground & has winning form including last time at Ascot, on general form though he has plenty to find to get involved & I personally would be disappointed if he could win a Champion Stakes.

Ruler Of The World ran well enough like last season in the Arc & he could easily place in this but I would be surprised if he proved good enough. 

Sheikhzayadroad has improved dramatically this season winning at the highest level (probably just Group 3 class in the UK) at Woodbine last time, he has shown that he handles soft ground & would be my idea of an outsider who could run into a place. 

Ayrad is thrown into the deep end once more after only just getting overhauled in a small field Listed event at Newmarket last time, ground will suit but has plenty to prove here. 

Free Eagle waltzed back onto the scene winning a poor Group 3 as his rating entitled him too on Irish Champions weekend, he clearly still has plenty of potential but a word of caution he burst onto the scene at 2 & disappointed next time, he was then not seen again so I would personally like to see him do it again. Ground is clearly a concern to his trainer who will walk the ground before confirming a runner tomorrow. 

Plenty was expected of Western Hymn in the early part of the year, he handles soft ground but also is quite highly strung which is a worry as it was on Derby Day when he boiled over, he has since won & been beaten on soft ground in France.    

                     

I have already backed Noble Mission when he was 14/1 a few weeks ago & I personally cannot see anything beating him here. 

The last race on the card is the first running of the 7f Balmoral Handicap which has attracted 28 runners; 

Chil The Kite handles this ground but has plenty to find on recent running. 

Empire Storm ran a big race in the trial for this at the last meeting, that race cut up & this is much tougher. Piri Wango is running into form & handles cut so could easily go well. Bronze Angel did what I couldn't see happen when he won a 2nd Cambridgeshire, up again in the weights & far from certain to handle the ground. 

Heaven's Guest plugged on last time in the trial for this & appears to be held at present. Sirius Prospect was staying on last time here & has a tough task from the highest draw. Gabrial's Kaka never got involved in the Cambridgeshire which was his first really bad run in a while & I am unsure if he really wasn't ground this soft. 

Belgian Bill has all the form in the world to win a race of this quality but always finds trouble, heart in mouth. Almargo has had a tremendous season but so far soft ground has proved a negative. Bold Thady Quill is a decent Irish handicapper who loves this sort of ground, player. Jack's Revenge like stablemate Belgian Bill can win one of these but does like getting in behind horses. Baraweez is an improved handicapper who has some form in lesser company on the ground which is worrying connections. 

Hawkeyethenoo is well below his last winning mark & is back in a race he can win however he has shown little recent form. Velox ran a huge race in the Cambridgeshire, ground is an unknown but has the potential to handle it. 

Fort Bastion has been a regular in these all season but has been struggling recently. Heavy Metal has struggled on this kind of ground so far in his career & is back on the slide again since his big summer win. Cornrow was my big fancy for the Cambridgeshire & looked to going well at one stage before fading, has good form over this course & cut in the ground could unlock more improvement. Abseil has been generally disappointing since a good win at Epsom in June, ground is a big worry. 

Levitate has his ground & is handicapped to get involved here, he has shown up better recently, player. Georgian Bay is another who shapes as if bad ground would suit & another who ran better next time. Russian Realm appears to go well with cut but has disappointedly found very little since winning at Goodwood earlier in the year. Chatez looks to have been aimed at this since the middle of the season, he won a competitive 3yo handicap at Haydock on bad ground earlier in the year & he ticks plenty of boxes. Tigers Tale ran a huge race in the Cambridgeshire & should be fine on this ground. Maverick Wave was never involved last time out, he remains with potential & has some form on soft ground. Buckstay stayed on strongly in the Cambridgeshire, has to prove himself on soft ground but promises to be suited by it. 

Dream Walker adores this ground & has had a great season so far, can easily get involved from his low weight. Farlow is useful at this trip but clearly should have won more races, he handles juice & is a player if the high draw is where to be. 

Askaud has been a good filly for connections but appears completely out of form. 

Too tough for me especially as the ground will be cut up badly by race time. 

              

@fttfracing