Hello & welcome back to the blog, apologies to my readers for no blog last weekend. Had a busy week in the personal life last week with my business & didn't really have the time to do the racing justice. I am back with I would like to say plenty of time on my hands ahead of the first Dubai Future Champions Day at Newmarket on Friday.
I was planning to attend tomorrow but unfortunately or fortunately depending how you look at it my busy period continues so it looks like I will have to give it a miss.
Rain has been the order of the day for the last 2 weeks in Bracknell (remember I live 5 mins from Ascot Racecourse) & a similar fate has beset Newmarket with the ground currently riding soft which has depleted the fields somewhat. Whether the meeting will work we do not yet know.
I was planning to attend tomorrow but unfortunately or fortunately depending how you look at it my busy period continues so it looks like I will have to give it a miss.
Rain has been the order of the day for the last 2 weeks in Bracknell (remember I live 5 mins from Ascot Racecourse) & a similar fate has beset Newmarket with the ground currently riding soft which has depleted the fields somewhat. Whether the meeting will work we do not yet know.
A cracking fillies Nursery opens up the card over 7f in which I will be hoping that Majestic Manner is none the worse for her experience 2 weekends ago in The Oh So Sharp where she broke through the gates. Her mark is more than favourable after a good win in a maiden at Lingfield on her last start & Ryan Moore is a positive booking.
Pulcinella has similar credentials to Majestic Manner having won a Lingfield maiden herself on her last start, she was entered like Majestic Manner in a similar Nursery over course & distance a month ago but missed the engagement, her stable are in much better form now & like Majestic Manner she is bred to be good.
Enlace has failed to go as I predicted on @Betracingnation back in August looking particularly poor on her last 2 starts.
Enlace has failed to go as I predicted on @Betracingnation back in August looking particularly poor on her last 2 starts.
The Cornwallis makes its debut at Newmarket having been run solely at Ascot since its inception, as there is no 5f Champion Title I feel its inclusion on Future Champions Day is misplaced as it is rarely run by anything more than a fast 2yo & they usually do not train on at 3, of course there are exceptions like Hot Streak last year but to be fair he has hardly set the world alight this season.
Fendale has looked limited in 2 starts in Group company since 2 good wins at the start of his career, this grade is much easier than he has been contesting & should handle the ground fine so may be able to get back on track here.
Moonraker like Fendale has been disappointing upped in grade, on looks he is a powerful individual who really should be doing better than he has, ground looks another stumbling block this time. Profitable has been far from it, finishing 2nd on 4 starts out of 5 so far. He just seems to lack that vital change of pace to put his rivals to the sword,although that could all change here as his dam was better with some cut & the easing of the going could see him find the improvement. Squats has beaten Profitable twice already this season & is a good honest hardy 2yo who should continue to run well.
Strath Burn either didn't stay at Newbury in the Mill Reef last time or was just not up to it which is doubtful as he had previously chased down Kool Kompany all the way to the line on similar ground in France. He is less imposing than I expected which is a worry though. Volatile won his maiden on dirt over 5f by over 16 lengths at Jagersro in Sweden on his only start, he could clearly be anything but historically Scandinavian runners are well below the class of our horses.
Accipiter gained her Listed success at Ayr last time after a series of decent runs in similar company, work to do again here but will enjoy the ground.
Air Of Mystery has just a maiden win on firm ground at Bath to her name but that was achieved in good style & a good time, ground should be ok for her on breeding. Well worth a go in a race that fillies do well in. Al Fareej ran her best race on soft ground when 2nd in The St Hugh's to the exposed Bronze Maquette, all her other form is well below what's required but ability to handle the ground gives her hope.
Rosie's Premiere bounced back to winning ways last time in a Nursery beating Profitable but on all her other form in pattern company she is outclassed.
Royal Razalma should enjoy the drop back in trip & the soft ground may bring about improvement in her.
Secret Liaison has plenty to prove.
Moonraker like Fendale has been disappointing upped in grade, on looks he is a powerful individual who really should be doing better than he has, ground looks another stumbling block this time. Profitable has been far from it, finishing 2nd on 4 starts out of 5 so far. He just seems to lack that vital change of pace to put his rivals to the sword,although that could all change here as his dam was better with some cut & the easing of the going could see him find the improvement. Squats has beaten Profitable twice already this season & is a good honest hardy 2yo who should continue to run well.
Strath Burn either didn't stay at Newbury in the Mill Reef last time or was just not up to it which is doubtful as he had previously chased down Kool Kompany all the way to the line on similar ground in France. He is less imposing than I expected which is a worry though. Volatile won his maiden on dirt over 5f by over 16 lengths at Jagersro in Sweden on his only start, he could clearly be anything but historically Scandinavian runners are well below the class of our horses.
Accipiter gained her Listed success at Ayr last time after a series of decent runs in similar company, work to do again here but will enjoy the ground.
Air Of Mystery has just a maiden win on firm ground at Bath to her name but that was achieved in good style & a good time, ground should be ok for her on breeding. Well worth a go in a race that fillies do well in. Al Fareej ran her best race on soft ground when 2nd in The St Hugh's to the exposed Bronze Maquette, all her other form is well below what's required but ability to handle the ground gives her hope.
Rosie's Premiere bounced back to winning ways last time in a Nursery beating Profitable but on all her other form in pattern company she is outclassed.
Royal Razalma should enjoy the drop back in trip & the soft ground may bring about improvement in her.
Secret Liaison has plenty to prove.
Not a race I will be getting involved with.
The first of the Group 1's is the 6f Middle Park Stakes with just 7 runners going to post due to ground & the presence of current 2000 Guineas favourite the unbeaten Ivawood.
He has not been seen since bolting up at Goodwood in the summer after a win on rain affected ground at Newmarket, a huge imposing son of Zebedee who has looked the real deal with his ability to travel easily off the pace his biggest asset. Genuine soft ground is a slight concern as his sire Zebedee has so far only had 3 winners on that surface & the worst he won on was good to soft. On the positive side Ivawood has the size to cope.
Big things were expected of Capella Sansevero after 2 straight wins at the beginning of his career & the cheque book came out as he transferred to the Man City of Horse Racing in Qatar racing, he finished with a rattle in The Coventry (form is hit & miss) & then disappointed badly back home in Ireland but that was most likely the firm ground, he seems much better on soft so Friday's ground gives him a chance of getting involved although he has looked a shade below Group 1 class.
Big things were expected of Capella Sansevero after 2 straight wins at the beginning of his career & the cheque book came out as he transferred to the Man City of Horse Racing in Qatar racing, he finished with a rattle in The Coventry (form is hit & miss) & then disappointed badly back home in Ireland but that was most likely the firm ground, he seems much better on soft so Friday's ground gives him a chance of getting involved although he has looked a shade below Group 1 class.
Charming Thought is unbeaten in his last 2 starts winning in the style of a horse well worth a go in Group company, ground is an unknown as although Oasis Dream gets his fair share of soft ground winners they tend to be out of soft ground dam lines.
Jungle Cat ran the worst race of his short career last time in a strangely run renewal of The Mill Reef looking ill at ease on the soft ground which is a worry here.
Kool Kompany changed hands for big money at Doncaster sales the other month after several good runs early in the season, the worry with him is that others have improved past him & I doubt he is in the calibre of stablemate Ivawood.
Muharrar battled gamely all the way to the line when winning the Gimcrack at York in August after finishing behind Kodi Bear & Ivawood, he is a good type who has already won on soft ground on debut which is an advantage here, big player.
The Warrior is still a maiden & is the only representative from Ballydoyle's plethora of entries, can't imagine he'd be good enough.
Jungle Cat ran the worst race of his short career last time in a strangely run renewal of The Mill Reef looking ill at ease on the soft ground which is a worry here.
Kool Kompany changed hands for big money at Doncaster sales the other month after several good runs early in the season, the worry with him is that others have improved past him & I doubt he is in the calibre of stablemate Ivawood.
Muharrar battled gamely all the way to the line when winning the Gimcrack at York in August after finishing behind Kodi Bear & Ivawood, he is a good type who has already won on soft ground on debut which is an advantage here, big player.
The Warrior is still a maiden & is the only representative from Ballydoyle's plethora of entries, can't imagine he'd be good enough.
Not a race I will be betting in.
A small but select field of fillies are next up for the mile Group 1;
Agnes Stewart is not overly big but has plenty of ability as she showed when running away from what now looks a weak field in The May Hill at Donny, she really grabbed the ground that day so soft ground is concerning. On a line through Jack Naylor she has plenty to find with Lucida.
Forte is a full sister to last year's average Oaks winner Talent who failed to go on this season, her form on soft ground was not great so that is a worry for her sister here.
Good Place is one of 3 runners for Godolphin, she beat a couple of fillies who were well beaten in Group 3 company on their next start last time at Ascot in good style improving again from her maiden win. She is decent size & should be ok on the ground.
Lucida is a lovely filly who was still green when winning the Rockfel comfortably here 3 weeks ago, she has clearly come out of the race well as her trainer Jim Bolger was originally unsure when asked if she would come here. She won her maiden on yielding on debut & her action suggests that soft ground will be no issue to her, she looks to have plenty of stamina.
Marsh Hawk has already in 3 starts shown a huge liking for soft ground when powering away on debut from horses who struggled in the ground & when winning a small conditions event at Newbury on her last start. She is not much to look at & this year could well be her time as I believe others will improve past her next year. Her stamina for this stiff mile is open to debate as a mile could well be her limit & after making hard work of getting on top at Newbury last time she was not pulling away towards the line over 7f.
Agnes Stewart is not overly big but has plenty of ability as she showed when running away from what now looks a weak field in The May Hill at Donny, she really grabbed the ground that day so soft ground is concerning. On a line through Jack Naylor she has plenty to find with Lucida.
Forte is a full sister to last year's average Oaks winner Talent who failed to go on this season, her form on soft ground was not great so that is a worry for her sister here.
Good Place is one of 3 runners for Godolphin, she beat a couple of fillies who were well beaten in Group 3 company on their next start last time at Ascot in good style improving again from her maiden win. She is decent size & should be ok on the ground.
Lucida is a lovely filly who was still green when winning the Rockfel comfortably here 3 weeks ago, she has clearly come out of the race well as her trainer Jim Bolger was originally unsure when asked if she would come here. She won her maiden on yielding on debut & her action suggests that soft ground will be no issue to her, she looks to have plenty of stamina.
Marsh Hawk has already in 3 starts shown a huge liking for soft ground when powering away on debut from horses who struggled in the ground & when winning a small conditions event at Newbury on her last start. She is not much to look at & this year could well be her time as I believe others will improve past her next year. Her stamina for this stiff mile is open to debate as a mile could well be her limit & after making hard work of getting on top at Newbury last time she was not pulling away towards the line over 7f.
Together Forever has clearly been rated one of Coolmore's better 2yo's after starting at short prices over the likes of Found earlier in her career, she has got it together on her last 2 starts including with a comfortable success in Listed company last Sunday, on form lines through Found & Jack Naylor she has plenty to find with Lucida.
Winter's Moon is the 3rd Godolphin runner, she has been slightly disappointing since her debut win when playing up & looking one paced on soft ground in The Sweet Solera in the summer & then dropping away tamely behind Elm Park at Salisbury. She is a long filly who will have benefitted from the break & will benefit again from a winter on her back.
Winter's Moon is the 3rd Godolphin runner, she has been slightly disappointing since her debut win when playing up & looking one paced on soft ground in The Sweet Solera in the summer & then dropping away tamely behind Elm Park at Salisbury. She is a long filly who will have benefitted from the break & will benefit again from a winter on her back.
Luicda is a horse I love but I will leave the race alone.
The Dewhurst Stakes used to be a Top class 2yo race but with the Middle Park having been switched in recent years to the same day it has suffered, last year's field was poor & this years does not scream Champion 2yo either.
Belardo at least remains with plenty of potential after just the 4 starts, he is a good looking son of Lope De Vega who like many at Doncaster was not suited by the slow early gallop, he couldn't quicken instantly on Town Moor & stayed on at one pace still looking green. The fitting of a hood is interesting here as is a return to ground with juice in it, his best performance so far came at Newbury when plenty of rain had fallen. This stiffer 7f will also suit him & he is overpriced.
Dutch Connection improved from a Nursery (Secret Brief well behind) win to land a Group 3 at York in the summer (form has worked out), he returned to the track in another small field Group 1 at The Curragh but was readily out speeded by Gleneagles, would be a disappointing winner for me.
Estidhkaar is much more forward than the majority of the rivals he has faced looks a real 2yo, he is unbeaten on his last 3 starts winning comfortably on rain softened ground at The July Meeting before advertising his streetwise demeanor when winning a slowly run Champagne at Doncaster last time, he was well positioned that day & I just feel he is beatable.
Kodi Bear has not been seen since winning an Ascot Listed race in the summer, form is mixed (beat a non staying Muharrar), on a strict form line through Diaz (4th that day) he has a length to find on Belardo but like him he is open to any amount of improvement especially faced with soft ground for the first time.
Maftool won readily over course & distance last time in the Superlative confirming the impression he had already created that of a potentially useful colt, soft ground is a concern though as his American sire has so far only 6 individual winners on soft form limited crops.
Secret Brief appeared to be regressing in maidens (well held by Dutch Connection) before finally winning at Thirsk, he has since won the 2 big sales races over course & distance comfortably but those races are in truth mickey mouse affairs compared to this class & he will need to up his game again here.
Smuggler's Cove is the chosen one from Coolmore with the absence of Gleneagles & War Envoy, he won a substandard Listed event on the AW at Dundalk last week; this is a big step up & is far too short in the betting at present.
Estidhkaar is much more forward than the majority of the rivals he has faced looks a real 2yo, he is unbeaten on his last 3 starts winning comfortably on rain softened ground at The July Meeting before advertising his streetwise demeanor when winning a slowly run Champagne at Doncaster last time, he was well positioned that day & I just feel he is beatable.
Kodi Bear has not been seen since winning an Ascot Listed race in the summer, form is mixed (beat a non staying Muharrar), on a strict form line through Diaz (4th that day) he has a length to find on Belardo but like him he is open to any amount of improvement especially faced with soft ground for the first time.
Maftool won readily over course & distance last time in the Superlative confirming the impression he had already created that of a potentially useful colt, soft ground is a concern though as his American sire has so far only 6 individual winners on soft form limited crops.
Secret Brief appeared to be regressing in maidens (well held by Dutch Connection) before finally winning at Thirsk, he has since won the 2 big sales races over course & distance comfortably but those races are in truth mickey mouse affairs compared to this class & he will need to up his game again here.
Smuggler's Cove is the chosen one from Coolmore with the absence of Gleneagles & War Envoy, he won a substandard Listed event on the AW at Dundalk last week; this is a big step up & is far too short in the betting at present.
At the prices Belardo 16/1 generally available is well worth a bet on ground that should bring about plenty of improvement.
As with so many 7f Group races they can be hit & miss, the Challenge Stakes is no exception. Breton Rock has progressed from a decent handicapper to a Group performer this season & on his favoured soft ground he won the Group 2 Hungerford last time. Ground has come again for him here & he is a big player even with the penalty. Here Comes When made the breakthrough at Group 2 level on soft ground in Germany last time over the mile winning in good style, lets not beat about the bush the race was barely Listed class in this country so he will need more here.
Amarillo is useful in & around Listed to Group 3 company but looks better on better ground. Highland Colori is not up to this grade on what he has shown for the last year or so & was well beaten in this race last year.
Mogadishio; a decent French handicapper who ran out of his skin to be only beaten less than 5 lengths in the Moulin last time, that run was too good to be true & I cannot see him getting involved in this.
Professor struggles in grades higher than conditions class & the ground is an issue.
Tawhid will love the ground & shaped as if ready to strike last time out, he has his quirks but everything looks in his favour for a huge run.
Brazos has yet to prove he is quite up to Group class & will likely struggle here once more.
Cable Bay has not progressed in his 3 runs so far this season & at the moment looks just a 2yo who has not trained on.
Thawaany represents the powerful Freddie Head stable, she has already proved to very smart in a handful of runs predominantly on soft ground in France, she chased home Garswood in a Group 1 last time which shows she is about the same level as Breton Rock on a line through Gregorian so her short price is on reputation alone, entitled to go close. Al Thakira bounced right back to her best when scrambling home in a poor Ascot Listed race last time but this is much tougher taking on hardened older horses for the first time & she is tiny. Cape Factor is a useful Listed filly who likes soft ground, she has only run twice this season but does have to find more.
Joyeuse has had an in & out season, her best piece of form was bolting up on soft ground at Haydock earlier in the year but all her best form is at 6f so you have to worry that she can cut it at 7f against older animals.
Muteela only started racing this season but has already competed up to a very decent level, after completing the hat trick at Royal Ascot she was beaten by J Wonder & Ansgar at Goodwood before not getting the run of the race at Doncaster. She came back to form to win again in Listed company at Ripon last time but my main worry is the ground as Dansili's are not great on soft.
With plenty is his favour Tawhid 14/1 E/W generally available is worth a play with his stable continuing in excellent form.
The final race on the card is The Darley Stakes over the Cambridgeshire trip which is usually run a few weeks later but has been added to the Future Champions Day card.
It has not attracted the quality of recent years but has a host of interesting handicappers stepping up in grade & of course one of the highlights for me is the return of Berkshire after he nearly lost his life earlier in the season so it is fantastic to see him back.
Air Pilot steps in grade after romping away with a quality handicap at Newbury a few weeks ago in similar ground, he travelled like a dream that day & sauntered clear looking every inch a group horse.
Berling was formerly a funny character when trained by John Dunlop a few years ago & since 2013 he has been in his owners native Scandinavia, his form out there has been generally poor until his last start when he won the Swedish Open Mile at Taby.
Clon Brulee deserves a step up in grade after returning to the UK in good heart winning twice in his last 3 starts, soft ground is fine & he is a player. Stablemate Code Of Honor returned to win a small conditions event at Newbury on soft ground last time in good style making all & seeing off his rivals easily, he has plenty more to offer in this grade.
Educate has not yet made the grade in Group company but did win last season's Cambridgeshire agonisingly denying Code Of Honor, he finished 9th this year & a well held 3rd last weekend at York, plenty on for me.
Fencing promised so much as a younger animal but has been limited as an older horse, soft ground far from ideal & stamina for the 9f is a doubt.
Grandeur would be a surprise runner as has avoided soft ground for the last few years. Ocean Tempest has his ground but so far has struggled to bridge the gap from high class handicapper to Group performer. Tinghir has won his last 2 starts on the AW & handles soft ground well, he has form to turn around with Clon Brulee.
Audacia adores soft ground & gained a Listed win against her own sex at Pontefract earlier in the year, this is much tougher taking on the boys for the first time.
Zurigha is unproven on soft & has little scope to cope with this test.
Berkshire returns to the track after hating the way the Greenham was run at the start of the year when he pulled far to hard & dropped away, after that he contracted colic & he was almost lost.
It has been a long road back but it is fantastic to see this gorgeous looking horse back on the track, he has been working well in the build up to his return showing he retains all his old zest including when working extremely well on the AW at Kempton recently, ground will be fine & has to have a big chance.
Mutakayyef has been given plenty of time since an excellent 3rd at Royal Ascot in the summer, he will have appreciated the break as a powerful horse who will be even better as a 4yo. Trip may well be on the short side here but he does handle the ground.
Adore Berkshire & am so happy to see him back but I do not wish to back him as I would just like to see him return home safe & show that all his ability remains.
Mutakayyef is a horse I think will be top class at 4 so if I were to have a bet it would be him.
Amarillo is useful in & around Listed to Group 3 company but looks better on better ground. Highland Colori is not up to this grade on what he has shown for the last year or so & was well beaten in this race last year.
Mogadishio; a decent French handicapper who ran out of his skin to be only beaten less than 5 lengths in the Moulin last time, that run was too good to be true & I cannot see him getting involved in this.
Professor struggles in grades higher than conditions class & the ground is an issue.
Tawhid will love the ground & shaped as if ready to strike last time out, he has his quirks but everything looks in his favour for a huge run.
Brazos has yet to prove he is quite up to Group class & will likely struggle here once more.
Cable Bay has not progressed in his 3 runs so far this season & at the moment looks just a 2yo who has not trained on.
Thawaany represents the powerful Freddie Head stable, she has already proved to very smart in a handful of runs predominantly on soft ground in France, she chased home Garswood in a Group 1 last time which shows she is about the same level as Breton Rock on a line through Gregorian so her short price is on reputation alone, entitled to go close. Al Thakira bounced right back to her best when scrambling home in a poor Ascot Listed race last time but this is much tougher taking on hardened older horses for the first time & she is tiny. Cape Factor is a useful Listed filly who likes soft ground, she has only run twice this season but does have to find more.
Joyeuse has had an in & out season, her best piece of form was bolting up on soft ground at Haydock earlier in the year but all her best form is at 6f so you have to worry that she can cut it at 7f against older animals.
Muteela only started racing this season but has already competed up to a very decent level, after completing the hat trick at Royal Ascot she was beaten by J Wonder & Ansgar at Goodwood before not getting the run of the race at Doncaster. She came back to form to win again in Listed company at Ripon last time but my main worry is the ground as Dansili's are not great on soft.
With plenty is his favour Tawhid 14/1 E/W generally available is worth a play with his stable continuing in excellent form.
The final race on the card is The Darley Stakes over the Cambridgeshire trip which is usually run a few weeks later but has been added to the Future Champions Day card.
It has not attracted the quality of recent years but has a host of interesting handicappers stepping up in grade & of course one of the highlights for me is the return of Berkshire after he nearly lost his life earlier in the season so it is fantastic to see him back.
Air Pilot steps in grade after romping away with a quality handicap at Newbury a few weeks ago in similar ground, he travelled like a dream that day & sauntered clear looking every inch a group horse.
Berling was formerly a funny character when trained by John Dunlop a few years ago & since 2013 he has been in his owners native Scandinavia, his form out there has been generally poor until his last start when he won the Swedish Open Mile at Taby.
Clon Brulee deserves a step up in grade after returning to the UK in good heart winning twice in his last 3 starts, soft ground is fine & he is a player. Stablemate Code Of Honor returned to win a small conditions event at Newbury on soft ground last time in good style making all & seeing off his rivals easily, he has plenty more to offer in this grade.
Educate has not yet made the grade in Group company but did win last season's Cambridgeshire agonisingly denying Code Of Honor, he finished 9th this year & a well held 3rd last weekend at York, plenty on for me.
Fencing promised so much as a younger animal but has been limited as an older horse, soft ground far from ideal & stamina for the 9f is a doubt.
Grandeur would be a surprise runner as has avoided soft ground for the last few years. Ocean Tempest has his ground but so far has struggled to bridge the gap from high class handicapper to Group performer. Tinghir has won his last 2 starts on the AW & handles soft ground well, he has form to turn around with Clon Brulee.
Audacia adores soft ground & gained a Listed win against her own sex at Pontefract earlier in the year, this is much tougher taking on the boys for the first time.
Zurigha is unproven on soft & has little scope to cope with this test.
Berkshire returns to the track after hating the way the Greenham was run at the start of the year when he pulled far to hard & dropped away, after that he contracted colic & he was almost lost.
It has been a long road back but it is fantastic to see this gorgeous looking horse back on the track, he has been working well in the build up to his return showing he retains all his old zest including when working extremely well on the AW at Kempton recently, ground will be fine & has to have a big chance.
Mutakayyef has been given plenty of time since an excellent 3rd at Royal Ascot in the summer, he will have appreciated the break as a powerful horse who will be even better as a 4yo. Trip may well be on the short side here but he does handle the ground.
Adore Berkshire & am so happy to see him back but I do not wish to back him as I would just like to see him return home safe & show that all his ability remains.
Mutakayyef is a horse I think will be top class at 4 so if I were to have a bet it would be him.
@fttfracing
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