Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe Sunday 051014

The richest race in Europe takes place on Sunday afternoon in the beautiful Bois du Boulogne in the heart of Paris, such a cosmopolitan city with so much culture & delightful gothic architecture. It has long been one of my favourite cities in the world. Sadly this year I will not be in attendance as the 20 runners take to the Longchamp Turf for the 93rd running of The Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe due to family commitments on Sunday. 

 On a personal note the Arc that resonates most with me is a defeat way back in 1988 when Longchamp was at its most cruel as 24 runners took their chance in Europes greatest race with bumping & scrimmaging the order of the day as Mtoto endured a troubled passage through stuck in behind a wall of horses as was his style, the old boy travelled beautifully through the race but as the race developed in the straight when Tony Bin took off down the outside, Mo was held in for a vital few strides by Village Star (explains why I was never a fan of Kauto Star), once extracated Mtoto tried valiantly to close the gap gaining momentum all the way to the line & to this day he always looks like he will get there but it was too much for the big horse to make up losing out by an agonising neck on the line with one of Graham Goode's eponymous commentaries 'Mtoto flies at the death but Tony Bin wins, Mtoto is 2nd'.....sometimes Horse Racing can be so cruel.  

This year's race has attracted a full field of 20 with 15 individual Group 1 winners assembled including winners of the English Derby, English Oaks, King George, Irish Oaks, French Oaks, St Leger & a Dubai Duty Free. Yet it looks one of the most open Arc's in recent years with 6/1 the field a strong indication that no one one is sure who will win.

Andre Fabre stated last year that Flintshire would win an Arc but most likely as a 4yo so here he is back with a good draw & for a change for Paris at this time of year on the good fast ground that he wants. His season has been fairly hit & miss so far, he ran a highly encouraging race behind Cirrus at Epsom on his seasonal return then did not reappear until the Grand Prix De Saint Cloud when the French weather again played havoc with him although he did run fairly poorly there was an apparent explanation for this as he scoped badly afterwards. His next outing came in The Prix Foy on trials weekend where he was made favourite but was undone by the excellence of the much maligned Frankie Dettori who gave Rule Of The World a masterful front running ride, Flintshire chased the winner all the way to the line & given the likely stronger pace on an Arc he really is a big player, it is surely significant that the little French magician Fabre relies on him alone given the firepower he has at his disposal & for me he is the forgotten horse of the race.

Ruler Of The World our much maligned 2013 Derby winner was as I have already said was given a fabulous ride to win The Foy last time, for me Frankie will need to be C'est Magnifique on board him once more if he is to do any better than last year's 7th as overall the horse does not look good enough. He has run some reasonable races in defeat but lacks that real explosive change of pace that is needed to win an Arc on good ground. 
The other concern is last time was his first run since Dubai in March so can he put 2 races together in a relatively short period of time after a long layoff.

Al Kazeem makes an attempt on a 2nd Arc after finishing 6th last year on soft ground, the ground this time is in his favour as is his draw but on what he did in The Irish Champion you would have to say he has lost a step in top company.

Ivanhowe burst onto the scene when bursting Sea The Moon's bubble quite comprehensively at Baden Baden last time although as we now know Sea The Moon was injured. His only previous foray into France met with a heavy defeat behind Spitijim & overall form is below what is required here. 
With Sea The Moon injured & retired, Ivanhowe has almost suddenly overnight become a top class horse when his form tells you different. The final nail in his coffin is the draw as he has a nightmare one in stall 19.

Whatever Spiritjim achieves in the Arc he has had a fabulous season although it has been slightly soured in recent weeks with connections losing the Group 1 in The Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud after testing positive for a banned substance. 
He doesn't win his races by far & is more workmanlike than explosive, he ran a good trial in The Foy with the slow pace against him so in a more strongly run race I can see him easily outrunning his odds to maybe nick a place & if he got into a battle I would fancy him over many others in the field.    

Gold Ship is one of 3 hopes from the land of the rising sun as they try desperately to win an Arc for the first time after some agonising recent near misses. 
Gold Ship is a hugely talented horse but also a nutcase as he has been known to drop himself out way back in his races before coming with a late rattle, that can work in Japan where the opposition is not always as strong but if he drops himself out here from a cracking draw in 2 he will find himself in trouble stuck behind a wall of horses. 
At least on the positive side he is a strong stayer as he has won over trips up to 15 furlongs, he has also won 5 times at Hanshin which like Longchamp is a big sweeping racecourse with a long home straight perfect for him to run down his opponents. 
Looks like he will be the best of the Japanese & is a player who come with risks. 

          

    Just A Way has been aimed at this ever since his romp in The Dubai Duty Free back in March over 9 furlongs, he has since come home to Japan & won a Group 1 at Tokyo on soft ground. The major worry is the horses stamina for the 12 furlongs as the only time he tried it he finished a well beaten 11th in The Japanese Derby in 2012. 
He has since tried 11 furlongs once & was well beaten then. 
As he has got older he does appear to have got stronger & one of his best performances came in The Tenno Sho when blitzing Gentildonna over 10 furlongs by 4 lengths so that does offer hope but as we know you must be a strong stayer to win at Longchamp. His dam Sibyl is a Japanese bred daughter of Coaching Club American Oaks winner Charon who won up to 9 furlongs but no further while his sire the excellent Heart's Cry won The Arima Kinen Group 1 & Dubai Sheema Classic Group both over 12 furlongs, he was also 3rd in a King George in this country so there is hope that Just A Way will stay I just have a concern that he has too much speed.

  

Treve last year's unbeaten runaway winner attempts to win back to back Arc's a feat not completed since Alleged in '77 / '78. She gave me the suspicion to me that last year was her year & she was only a 3yo, so far this year she has shown me little to forgo that view. She was off the bridle early in her last run even allowing for the break & some ring rustiness she just didn't drive to the line as you would like to see, the good ground is not in her favour as all her best form is on soft.

Chiquita chased home Treve in her wayward style before breaking her maiden in a very weak Irish Oaks last year, she has since changed hands for a whopping £6 million to joining Ballydoyle & would need to be winning to really justify that price tag. 
She was beaten comfortably on her recent return & may just find this coming a bit to soon afterwards.    

Siljin's Saga is a useful filly who has been in the best form of her career so far this season, she will need to improve to trouble the principles in this especially from her draw of 16 & a 6th or 7th place would be a fantastic result for her.

Ectot had been off through injury after winning the recognised French Guineas trial in April before a faultless display of grace & style in The Niel (historically the best trial for the Arc). He travelled like a dream through the race & sauntered to the lead in a matter of strides, however all may not be perfect as that race as with all the trials was run at a crawl & he looked revved up for his return so revved up in fact that as a potential suspect stayer his jockey did the right thing by taking him to the front early where he hung on well from the useful Teletext who is a strong stayer & would have preferred a stronger pace (he now heads to Saudi Arabia which is a real shame). 
That would be my main worry for the Arc the strong pace that will truly test his stamina & only a month after a big performance after 5 months off. 
Can totally understand why he's favourite & he is a very likely winner but I do have slight doubts. 

Montviron is Ectot's pacemaker, so it will be interesting how fast they go or whether they try to slow the pace down.

Prince Gibraltar was at one stage the main 3yo hope in France favourite for the Derby & if memory serves well fancied in Ante Post markets for this race. It has not gone to plan so far but you can hardly say he has run appalling, he started with a dominant display in The Greffulhe before starting Favourite for the French Derby where the draw ruined any chance he had as he was stuck out wide at the back of all the runners when he did get going it after being hemmed in it was all too late as he surged home for 3rd. 
At Longchamp in the Grand Prix De Paris on extreme soft ground he stayed on all the way to the line despite once again displaying a funny head carriage, some in the press called him ungenuine but to me if he had been he would not have run on, I think he was just beaten by a stronger horse in the ground, he was after well clear of Teletext. 
His last run was again on very heavy ground over 10 furlongs behind Gailo Chop where he appeared rusty after a 2 month break. This better ground coupled with a good draw & a young rider who is on the up if France gives him plenty of hope for a big run at juicy odds. 

Kingston Hill has been done no favours by the draw & will need a superb ride from Andrea Atzeni to even get involved. He won the St Leger without truly needing to stay as for the first time in a while a Classic was dominated by the top rated horses who finished as there ratings suggested they would. Overall I think his form may just lack what it takes to win an Arc & no St Leger winner has ever gone on to win an Arc.

Free Port Lux is a more than useful 3yo who has outstayed his pedigree so far this season, he has form in behind Gailo Chop & has beaten the much talked about Adelaide already this season. If he lasts home over the 12 furlongs he is another who can outrun his odds but he has a huge job on from a draw of 17.

      

Avenir Certain is the unbeaten French 1000 Guineas & Oaks winner who has looked superb all season long. She won The Prix De La Nonette easily last time offering plenty of hope that she will last the 12 furlongs. Her dam was useful in Scandinavia at up to a mile & further back in the pedigree you will find Blue Monday (won up to 12f) plus dual Coronation Cup winner Warrsan & Luso. She has a great draw in 1 on the face of it but at Longchamp being so close to the rail in a big field can also be a nightmare so there are reasons to be concerned if your on her. 

    Dolynia takes her chance on the back of a solid if unspectacular run in The Vermeille last time where the slow pace was almost certainly to blame for her defeat. She had looked progressive beforehand & from a nice draw she could easily go ok at a nice price without winning.   

Taghrooda has an awkward draw in stall 15 to overcome as well as the worry that she might already have done enough this season after hugely impressive displays in The Oaks & in The King George. In the Yorkshire Oaks last time she looked laboured & was out battled by a filly that I truly believe does not stay 12 furlongs in Tapestry (supplemented into this race) which is a real worry to me. From that draw her jockey Paul Hanagan has to get involved early otherwise I think she will struggle.

Harp Star is the 3rd & final runner from Japan, she is there best 3yo filly by some margin. Like her compatriot Gold Ship she is best held up for a long sweeping run as she showed when winning the Japanese 1000 Guineas, she then appeared to be given far too much to do in The Japanese Oaks thereafter when dropped right out in a big field, she got going far to late & drifted into the centre of the track as she tried to get to the leader which is a sign for me that she doesn't stay & it was her class alone that got her into contention. She was next seen when beating Gold Ship over 10 furlongs in The Sapporo Kinen, she got first run that day forging clear as Gold Ship slowly came at her although once more for me she was all out at the line. She has a testing draw in 12.

Tapestry completes the line-up having been supplemented into the race after a poor run after being dropped back to the mile at Leopardstown last time.
I find her a conundrum & surely if Ballydoyle really fancied there other 2 runners she would not have been supplemented. She was given a superb waiting ride by Ryan Moore when she beat Taghrooda at York although as I have already said Taghrooda was clearly in trouble a long way out looking nothing like the filly that had dominated previously. Tapestry didn't sprint away from her rival either which leads me to believe that a strong run 12 furlongs will be against as won the, Ryan basically kidded her into winning in the end as he knew his rival was labouring.    

Tremendous race as always, at the prices & with how the race is shaping up I do like Flintshire 25/1 E/W generally available on his ground. 

Ectot is the most likely winner if the 3yo's for me but there are some slight doubts that put me off him at his current odds so one other I will back is Prince Gibraltar 33/1 E/W with all the firms who pay 3 places & 20/1 E/W with Bet365 who are paying 4 places who is way overpriced.     

Opening this stellar afternoon's action is the Prix De L'Abbaye over the 5f run down the centre of Longchamp's huge course. A low draw has been essential in recent years as has a fast start. 

Move In Time has his ground but the draw is a worry. 

Hamza was an excellent 3rd in this last year on ground that would not have suited, forget his run last time as he had no chance in the Ayr Gold Cup. From a good draw on better ground he can put up a bold display of front running. 

Spirit Quartz has never performed to the level expected & is passed over. 

Son Cesio is best at 5f having beaten & been beaten by Mirza already this season, his last run was an excellent 2nd behind Signs Of Blessing who runs at Ascot on Saturday, has a chance. Guerre has struggled since looking like a world beater & Naas so a similar outcome is most likely. Stepper Point gained a deserved Group race success in The Flying Five last time, his draw is problematique. Maarek has not looked the same horse since the early part of the campaign & all his best form is with plenty of cut. 

Mirza dispelled my theory for him on fast ground last time by winning over course & distance. Decent at his best but likely to find a couple too good. 

Take Cover has been outclassed on his last 2 starts since an impressive display of speed at Goodwood although ground may have been against him last time & that was a 4th place finish in a rat at Newbury that has produced 4 winners if this in the last 10 years. Has a great draw to attack. Rangali was 4th & disqualified behind Mirza last time, precious to that he had his limitations exposed in top company. 

Sole Power is by far the best 5f sprinter in the world & is missing this race from his portfolio, he ran as well as he ever has over 6f last time & remains in top form, draw is not ideal but for a hold up horse who loves going through rivals it should be fine. Will win if the gaps appear as they have done like the red sea all season. 

Hot Streak has failed to go on from his early season starring roles & nothing he has done recently changes that opinion. Pearl Secret's class won him the Listed Beverly Bullet last time, I would have preferred him on softer ground & the draw is not great. 

Moviesta is probably not up to this on what he has shown so far but does have a good draw & good ground over his best trip, can see him getting placed. Justineo is speedy but not up to this grade on all known form. Catcall is a rogue & you take a chance if you back for all that he has plenty of ability but has a nightmarish draw. 

Sir Maximilian is an improved speedball this campaign but was readily outpointed by Stepper Point last time & has a bad draw. Cotai Glory is fast as he showed when winning the Molecomb & all bar winning the Flying Childers, this is tougher against his elders & the draw means he needs to use plenty up early to get involved. 

Goken is another 2yo taking a chance, seems an out & out 5f horse who has struggled upped in grade on his last 2 starts, shocking draw in this.

                       

Sole Power is clearly the best horse but is he value??

I will side with Hamza at big odds 25/1 E/W Paddy Power / Boylesports   

The Marcel Boussac has attracted a strong field of 13 2yo fillies;

Ervedya was an excellent 3rd behind The Wow Signal in the Morney, the step up in trip will suit here & she has to be high on the list. 

Shahah caused a stir last time when upstaging her more illustrious & expensive stablemate Al Naamah, be a surprise if she can win in this grade though. Queen Bee is a good class 2yo who has been busy, on her form with Calypso Beat she will struggle here. Jack Naylor has improved from maidens to win a Group 3 & Listed race on her last 2 starts, chances upped in grade. Light In Paris looked a nice prospect when winning at Deauville 2 starts ago & ran well enough when taking on the boys next time at the same track. 

Pink Rose is bred to be useful & duly won nicely on her debut at Clairefontaine, the slow pace did not suit last time & is worth a go at this level. 

Malabar brings some of the strongest form to the table, she was a good 4th upped to Group 1 company in what is looking an excellent renewal of the Moyglare, big chance. Found has a similar chance to that of Malabar as she was one place in front of her in The Moyglare after looking plenty green enough in the straight, she will appreciate the mile her & will have gained valuable experience from that run. 

Thank You Bye Bye wasn't quite up to Group 3 company on her last start after some excellent form in the provinces. Night Of Light is a beautifully bred daughter of Sea The Stars who won her maiden nicely on debut at Deauville, she then went to Chantilly & finished 2nd at Group 3 level to the more experienced Shahah, with that run under her belt I believe she has plenty more to come & can gain revenge here. 

Makweti is a twice raced maiden who has shown promise on both her runs but nothing so far to suggest she can be competitive here. 

Soft Drink is also a maiden who has finished behind both Pink Rose (in a slowly run race last time) & Light in Paris on debut, clearly well regarded & worth noting that her top trainer is letting her take chance. 

Cracking race but one I will leave alone.

The 2yo colts get their chance to shine on Arc day with a 7f Group 1 that has attracted 10 runners; Full Mast is unbeaten in 2 starts & was given a good ride when making all to win over course & distance last time, open to plenty more improvement. 

The Wow Signal is unbeaten in 3 starts so far winning the Morny last time out, he didn't win by far but was on top well at the line, on breeding he should get the 7th furlong & is the one they have to aim at. Aktabantay has improved with each start & duly won a decent Group 3 last time, blinkers are an interesting addition as he did not shy away last time, may not be quite this class though. Citron Spirit bolted up in a decent German Group 3 last time having previously won at a small provincial track called Le Lion D'Angers, shouldn't be underestimated. Burnt Sugar won the Sirenia nicely at Kempton last time, that form has been well advertised by the runner up (whom BS got first run on that day) Maftool who has won a pattern race since, work to do for me. 

Nucifera is a lovely strong powerful colt who won his first 3 starts in good style, he was undone by the slow pace behind Full Mast last time & can gain his revenge if there is a stronger gallop. Territories was also found out by the pace behind Full Mast last time & struggled to get home in the end, a stronger pace will clearly help but may well find this a bit too tough at this stage. Gleneagles really does look a 2yo to me so its no surprise that his trainer is going in again with him after he won a poor renewal of The National Stakes last time, this for me is a tough test against some promising horses who perhaps have more improvement than he does. I'm not surprised that the gorgeous looking War Envoy is in the field, he really appreciated the step up at Doncaster on his last start when chasing home Estidikhaar. He looks like another winter on his back will do him the power of good but I could easily see him going well here. 

Mindsomer looks exposed in this company & has plenty to do.   

Some big odds available here due to the front two's apparent dominance, I like Nucifera 20/1 E/W Bet365 who looks a colt of potential who has plenty of stamina & will appreciate a stronger pace here. 
I may also play War Envoy 20/1 E/W Stan James who I was taken with at Doncaster.     

Fillies & mares that are not 12 furlong animals have a Group 1 to aim at in The Prix De L'Opera over 12 furlongs, 3yo's have dominated in recent years as have low drawn horses.

Narniyn is useful at her best but on what she has shown is not quite up to Group 1 level. Ribbons showed how a change of scenery & good race planning can reap huge rewards when she won The Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet last time on very soft ground, it will be harder this time on better ground. Sultanina clearly wasn't fancied last time in the Vermeille but still ran poorly, she won a weak Nassau earlier in the year & has plenty to do for me. Nymphea won a poor Group 1 last year & has been well beaten ever since, plenty to do in this. I expected big things from Shamkala this year & she has disappointed the badly on her last 2 starts so it is clearly interesting that connections retain the faith with her, big player if she is back. Hadaatha takes a massive step up after a classy win in a Listed event at Yarmouth last time, well bred & on the upgrade she is not to be underestimated, the stable won it with a similar filly in Nahrain back in 2011. 

Tarfasha seemed much more at home over this trip at The Curragh last time when a comfortable winner from Chiquita, a top class filly who deserves a Group 1 success. Crisolles was easily brushed aside by Avenir Certain last time & has plenty to find in this grade. Feodora was a surprise winner of the German Oaks last time, previously she had been well beaten behind Avenir Certain at Chantilly unwise to completely disregard her but has work to do. Lavender Lane is just behind the best of her generation so far this season which leaves her with lots to find here. 

We Are is the forgotten filly in France she was disqualified from a comfortable win in The Prix Saint Alary Group 1 & a conditions win due to high levels of testosterone her samples, this was due to a problem with an ovarian tumour which kept her off the track from May to September, she showed enough in a small listed race last month to suggest she can win again & will have gained fitness from that, interesting at a price.         

Prices are not as I expected so will be sitting this one out.

A huge field of 16 has been declared for the Foret which means low drawn horses again will have a huge advantage. 

Aljamaheer has been stuck between a rock & a hard place for 2 seasons now not being good enough at a mile or 6f, this 7f is his trip & he ran ok in a slowly run race at Doncaster last time but once again the gods have appeared to put the mockers on him as he is drawn in 14. The perennially overrated Olympic Glory is in 12 so is another with a tough draw to overcome, as always he is a soft ground horse so the ground has gone for him. Gordon Lord Byron is in 10 so not great for this previous winner who has looked right back to his best on his last 2 starts, player if he can get out on terms. Darwin isn't good enough on what he has shown so far even allowing for a good draw over his perfect trip. Garswood gained his Group 1 in The Maurice de Gheest last time & returns to France on his last start before being retired, he has a good draw but this is a deep field. Custom Cut has been in phenomenal form this year winning his last 5 starts & was impressive when setting a slow pace in The Joel last week, this is much tougher from a car park draw. Speedrider won an amateur riders event last time & has no hope in this. Gammarth is decent at a much lower level than this & has plenty to do here. Ansgar is on a hat trick after wins at Goodwood & his career best performance when making all at Doncaster in The Park on his last start, player from a decent draw.

Es Que Love will love the pace of the race & is an interesting outsider who has remained in good form all year. Anodin has yet to win above Group 3 level but has some excellent form in the book this season, should be able to improve on his 7th place finish last year & is a player. That Is The Spirit has a great draw for a prominent racer but has shown he is nowhere near this class so far this year. 

Noozhoh Canarias has not lived up to the hype this season looking well below Group 1 or even Group class in Europe. 

Karakontie has been seen once since a disappointing run in The French Derby, this season's French 2000 Guineas winner he has a great draw if he is ready after his break. Running in the same colours is the excellent Irish mare Fiesolana who gained a deserved Group 1 win at Leopardstown last time, clearly flying at present she represents real value at current prices. 

Vorda looked a 2yo & has so far run like that this year never getting involved in any of her races, she has a terrible draw anyhow.

Fiesolana is solid at 10/1 generally available.

Finally the last race on a tremendous days racing is The Prix Du Cadran over 2m4f, a relatively small field of just 10 runners head to the post late on a Parisien sunday afternoon. Trip To Rhodes was well beaten in The Gladiateur last time out & must be a doubtful stayer. Altano won this in bad ground last year, has been running well enough on his last 2 starts & is a player back up in trip. 

Bathyrhon won the best trial for this the Prix Gladiateur last time staying on strongly to the line, is bred to love this trip & should go well. 

Whiplash Willie screamed Cadran winner last time with a staying on 2nd over 2m2f at Doncaster, ground will hopefully be fine for him & not too fast, he should go very close. Fly With Me was out speeded in a small field last time & all his best form is with plenty of give. Domeside has returned from an absence with 2 down the field runs this year, last year he had been one of the leading fancies for this after 2 straight wins before injury intervened. Going Somewhere looks as though this marathon trip will bring out the best in him, perennially outpaced over shorter but staying on towards the finish, could go ok at big odds. High Jinx has been beaten in this for the last 2 years, he finally gained a win on his previous start but was beaten again next time. 

Kicky Blue is another in the field who looks all about stamina but may just lack the class needed at the end of the race. Pale Mimosa was one of many who were well beaten in The Irish St Leger previously she had won nicely on the firm ground she loves at York, this may not be fast enough for her & her stamina is far from guaranteed. 

Said Whiplash Willie 8/1 Paddy Power / Boylesports to many people for this so had better stick to that really.

@fttfracing