Thursday 2 October 2014

Ascot, Newmarket & Longchamp Saturday 4/10/14

Hello & welcome along to the blog on what is the eve of a stellar weekend at home & in France with the Arc meeting at the fabulous Longchamp racecourse hidden in the Bois du Boulogne in the heart of one of the most fabulous cities on gods green earth.
If you're in the Paris area for Arc day on the Saturday then I highly recommend attending the Saturday card at the track as you will be surprised how poorly attended it is & if its your first time at Longchamp you can get to know the track before the elite of the french social scene come out to play on Sunday.  



Back her in the UK the headline meetings are at Ascot which features 2 Group 3's, 2 Listed Races & a obligatory 7f big field handicap while over at HQ The Group 1 Sun Chariot has its chance to stand alone as a feature event of an individual meeting now it has been moved from The Cambridgeshire Meeting it is backed up by The Oh So Sharp Stakes (another casualty from the aforementioned meeting) a 2yo Listed race & 2 sales races. Also I will mention that it's Redcar's big race of the year the Totepool 2yo old Trophy although I won't be covering it in depth in this blog as unfortunately with too much good racing elsewhere there has to be at least one casualty. 



Ascot's card opens up with a 6f Listed Race which to be frank is all about one horse; Muthmir forgoes the chance to have a crack at Group 1 company in France on Sunday for what in truth looks a very weak Listed contest. If he reproduces his Portland win its quite simple he wins & I will not be wasting valuable time worrying about the other runners.



Next up is The Cumberland Lodge which has attracted a small field of just 5 runners, Pether's Moon now has a double Group race penalty after a win in Group 2 company in Turkey last time (very weak for the Grade), he is useful but will struggle to confirm Goodwood running with Encke. 
Parish Hall was formerly a top 2yo but despite doing ok at around this level for the last 2 seasons he has his limitations namely this trip of 12 furlongs which he has tried only once before when well beaten in a race at Limerick earlier this year. 
Don't Stare won a Class 3 handicap in the style of an improver at Doncaster on his last start but he beat trees that day & in all honesty he has a mountain to climb in this. 
Encke has run to solid races since returning from his absence behind Pether's Moon on his return when fitness told & when a fine 3rd in The Irish St Leger last time, at these weights & with the current form of the stable he should be near unbeatable here. 


Energia Fribby is one of the best fillies of her age group in her native Brazil winning a Grade 1 last year & being placed in 2 earlier this, she defied to norm of runners who come from Latin America to win first time in this country as she was entitled to on ratings in a weak Listed race at Chester last time. Plenty more on her plate this time but should not be underestimated. 

Encke should be winning here. 




The Group 3 Bengough Stakes is a typically packed field for a sprint at this time of year with plenty of handicappers & young improving sprinters smelling a chance of Group race success as most of the best sprinters around are in France on Sunday. 
  Danzeno came to win his race at Doncaster over the extended 6f at Doncaster last time but was worn down in the closing stages by an improving filly Badr Al Badoor who re-opposes here, Danzeno may have plenty more to give & could well have needed his last run after a break but has plenty on at these weights to turn around that form. 
Signs Of Blessing is a useful 3yo sprinter in France who won The Group 3 Golden Pitsche in Baden Baden last time in decent style, all his very best form has been with plenty of give & we have had very little rain in the Ascot area for a good few weeks now.
Boomerang Bob dips his toe back into pattern company after some decent runs in big handicaps this season, he was a classy 2yo but has always looked a shade below pattern class. Caspar Netscher cannot be fancied on what he has done this season. 
Intibaah has been seen only once this season winning a good quality conditions race at Haydock earlier in the year, he has missed many engagements in recent months due to the fast ground as all his best form is on soft. I have no doubt in my mind he can win one of these & I believe that if the rains do come by Champions Day he will win the sprint its just whether there is enough juice in the ground to risk him here however It is slightly concerning that he his entered at the Horses in Training sale at the end of the month. 


Krypton Factor
returned to winning ways for the first time since his Golden Shaheen in March 2012 for rookie trainer George Peckham, it was a poor race at Hamilton & he has been exposed as not so good in Group races on Turf before. 
Louis The Pious tries his hand at Group company for the first time in his career after an authoritative display in The Ayr Gold Cup, he hasn't suddenly improved enough to be winning a normal Group 3 but for me this is a poor one so he has a chance although he is none too consistent. Reckless Abandon was well beaten by the progressive Mecca's Angel at her favourite trip last time, back up to 6f here should see him involved over a course he likes. Royal Rock at the age of 10 will be doing well to gain a 3rd win in this race having won it in 2011 & 2009, would be a tremendous performance if he were to get involved. Tropics won this on soft ground when at the top of his game last year, he has skirted with hints at a return to his best this year when 2nd in The July Cup & winning a good Listed race at HQ but disappointed badly at Haydock last time, has the ability to get involved but may just find one beating him. 
Aeolus was easily beaten in a Group 3 on his favoured soft ground in France last time & faces a tough task here.
Brown Sugar finished a decent 3rd in a 7f Listed event at Newbury last time albeit a well beaten 3rd, the drop back in trip will help & could get involved with 'The Enforcer' on board. 
Green Door has been 2nd on his last 3 starts in lesser company at 5f which appears to be his favoured trip as he has yet to show he stays 6f.
Lightning Moon is unbeaten 2 form 2 but has not been seen since a 6 length romp in a Class 4 handicap at the end of May, clearly has had plenty of issues & faces a tough task on his return here. 
Musical Comedy is a horse I like, he moves like a good animal & has a potent turn of foot. He too has not been seen for a while since disappointing in The Jersey but on his form he has a chance in this, the form of his Listed win at Newbury has worked out with the 2nd Naadirr winning in that grade & he has good course form with a 2nd over 6f earlier in the season, not discounted.


Badr Al Badoor as I have already mentioned beat Danzeno at Doncaster last time, she steps back into pattern company for the first time since her 2yo days when she was disappointing in The Lowther. In good form at present & worth a go in this company. Lucky Kristale won last year's Lowther & was one of the leading 2yo's of last season but so far this time around that is all she looks a good 2yo who has not trained on.

Am a fan of Intibaah but I can see him being rung rusty if he does run so I will take a chance on Musical Comedy 20/1 E/W Paddy Power who could easily be up to this task. 




An Ascot meeting would not be complete without a 7f cavalry charge & this meeting is no exception; Chil The Kite heads the weights & despite running well in handicaps & pattern races so far this year he has failed to add to his win at Newbury earlier in the year, place chance. Brazos showed signs in The Hungerford last time with a good 3rd, he never got involved in the International earlier in the summer over this course & distance. Plenty on at the weights. Sirius Prospect is high enough on his best form in a race of this nature as he will always find trouble in running. Morache Music is a useful performer who is around 5 to 7lbs better on softer ground despite winning on good last time (that race was run to suit), doubtful that he can get involved in a field of this size. 
Heaven's Guest continued in good form with a another 4th in The Ayr Gold Cup, back at his best trip he is sure to be involved in the finish. 


Empire Storm has struggled in every race he has contested this year since receiving a superb ride to nearly nick a Group 2 at Meydan earlier in the year, could actually like the way this race will pan out & as a front runner will be out of trouble. 
Blaine ran a cracker in The Ayr Gold Cup continuing his rich vein of form but has so far not shown that he stays 7f. Intransigent still has potential from his mark in a strongly run race such as this, he wasn't beaten far at Goodwood behind Almargo last time having previously won a Listed event at Chester. Almargo has been one of the more consistent Mark Johnston with 6 wins but he is still inexplicably capable of an awful run, both his previous visits to Ascot have been disappointing. 
Grey Mirage is a much better horse on the AW which does bode well for this course although he has not been seen since being beaten by the much improved Captain Cat on Good Friday so it would be some performance were he to win here. 
Eastern Impact was most disappointing when strongly fancied in the Gold Cup at Ayr finishing last, this is just as tough over a trip that he has yet to face. 
American Hope is strongly fancied here according to the betting, for me I struggle to see why, yes he has some useful form in behind fellow 3yo's Mange All & Born In Bombay but would he really have got involved at Goodwood last time but for being impeded...not for me & he has plenty on. Prince's Trust heads the betting after when having plenty in hand from his lenient mark of 88, now he has been re- assessed a mark of 100 demands him to be a Group horse even with the superb Cam Hardie's claim his inexperience is another huge negative in a race such as this. Redvers now finds himself higher than his last winning mark after appearing to throw away a certain success in a similar race at the last meeting, he has since been well beaten in The Silver Cup at Ayr, place chance at best. Highland Acclaim was a fast finishing 5th in Redver's Ascot race & failed to land a blow at Ayr last time, handicapper may now have him. 
Heavy Metal now finds himself just 3lbs above the mark that he caused a huge shock in The International Handicap here back in July after a series of mediocre runs, easily capable of getting involved back at Ascot. 
Silent Bullet is a big player on his improving runs in good handicaps earlier in the year, forget his last run at Goodwood his stable was having a bad patch & they are now firing on all cylinders with nearly a winner a day for the last week. 


Fort Bastion was a no show in the Cambridgeshire last week but his pervious 4th in the Redver's race at Ascot he can get involved with visors the accompaniment of choice this time around. 

At the prices Silent Bullet is well worth a bet 33/1 E/W generally available. 




Onwards up the M11 now to Newmarket which opens up with 2 sales races, an uncompetitive fillies edition followed by 15 in the colts version. They are not the type of races I like to get involved with so I would rather leave alone.

The Oh So Sharp Stakes which last year produced this years 1000 Guineas 1-2 Miss France & Lightening Thunder is up next. 
Astrelle heads the field & since running up a sequence has been well beaten in similar races. Feeling Easy struggled in a Nursery last week over course & distance, similar fate awaits here. Jelly Monger caused a huge shock on debut when winning at Salisbury on debut, the 2nd has since been 5th in The May Hill. Needs more here but entitled to improve. Local Time has won her last 2 starts in good style at Kempton, she is bred to stay but appears to have inherited some speed which will stand her in good stead, looks well up to this grade. Majestic Manner was entered in the Nursery over this trip last week but missed that to try her hand in Group company, her dam won The Sun Chariot on this card back in 2007. She won nicely at Lingfield on her 2nd start & as a big gross filly has plenty more improvement left, could be better than all of these. 
Montalcino ran well in a small field 1m race at Ascot last time behind another Godolphin filly Good Place, rated to at least have a place chance here. 
Prize Exhibit is exposed & wouldn't be good enough in this. Similar comments apply to Russian Punch & Shagah; whose last run I would ignore as it suited a closing filly, she was never truly a danger. Taaqah was well beaten in a 4 runner race at Salisbury behind Godolphin's Elite Gardens, she had previously defeated the useful Zifena at Newbury. Has plenty to find but booking of Ryan Moore takes the eye. 
Yodelling is bred to be very smart & a much better 3yo so it was encouraging that she was able to win so well on debut a month ago, stable is now firing on all cylinders which is a major plus & she is respected.

 Am a fan of Majestic Manner who won well last time & can take this step up in grade.

  


A class 8 runner field has been assembled for The Sun Chariot featuring 3 runners from the Andre Fabre Stable.
Miss France the 1000 Guineas winner returns to the scene of her biggest success, her 2 runs since have been ok to be fair, she didn't stay in The French Oaks after meeting some trouble & ran as well as she ever has behind stablemate Esoterique in The Prix Rothschild, a stronger pace will suit her here as will the return to a track where she has won twice. 


Fintry is the real improver in the field, she has won her last 4 starts with the minimum of fuss including at Sandown last time, that form is not Group 1 winning form but its more her style of her victories & she promises to be well suited by Newmarket.     

  
                  Esoterique is a Group 1 winner this season when getting the best of a sprint finish in The Rothschild, she also won at The Rowley Mile when getting the better off seasonal debutant Integral, she failed to reproduce her form at Ascot afterwards but since then has been in good form with her latest 4th to the boys in The Moulin almost a career best. If there is no pace she may well be the one who is able to cope best.


Integral was brilliant at Ascot in the Windsor Forest & gained a deserved Group 1 in the Falmouth thereafter, since her 3rd in The Rothschild she has almost been forgotten in the build up to this race which is strange as she brings the best form into it. Back at Newmarket after a break she has to go well. 


Sky Lantern won in a canter last year completing a memorable season, this time around in 2 starts she has looked well below her best & for me looks to have had enough let's not forget she was busy at 2 & 3 so it was always asking a lot for her to go on again at 4. 


Etaab gained her black type at Listed level last week here enjoying the return to firmer ground, connections have nothing to lose by sending her out again as she is likely to be retired this year & she could easily run into a place given her current mood. 

Kiyoshi enjoyed running off level weights last time & duly won nicely in a very hot fillies Group 3 at Doncaster, she has plenty of ability but this grade demands more again. 


J Wonder was well beaten by Kiyoshi last time & must prove that she stays the mile on a stiff track but on the plus side she travels well so could easily get a decent toe into the race to outrun her odds. 
                         
Cracking race in which all 8 have some sort of a chance , I think Andre Fabre will win it & I will take Miss France 6/1 Bet365 to supplement her Guineas win.

    


Over the channel at Longchamp those who are travelling or just watching from the comfort of your own home are treated to 4 good quality Group 2 contests.
Starting with a 3yo staying event over the 1m7f, Alain De Royer-Dupre is the man to side with having trained 3 winners in the last 10 years & the Prix De Lutece is the race to focus on with 8 winners in the last 10 years having previously ran in the Longchamp Group 3, this year the first 4 from that event take each other on again.
Glaring didn't quite get home when edged out in the Lutece last time & faces the same issue again. 
Doumaran was unlucky when 4th in The Lutece when squeezed up at a vital stage, given clearer passage he should go very close as he was on an upward curve. 
Theme Astral was 3rd in The Lutece after coming with a progressive run before stamina failed, similar story awaits here. 
Auvray took advantage of some non stayers & trouble in behind to win the Lutece last time, he appreciated the step up in trip & should be involved again here. 


Rio Tigre looks as if the step up in trip will suit after looking laboured over 12 furlongs on his last 2 starts, you would also think that better ground may help him to so on that he could be a big improver here. 
Vent De Force bounced back after a break with a dominant win in The Melrose last time, his trainer likes to target this race as his Nearly Caught was unplaced last year. 
Vazira is not an apparent stamina laden filly & her only previous try at 12 furlongs met with an easy defeat in The Ribblesdale so she has work to do for me despite being the choice of Soumillon from the 2 Aga Khan runners.
Baino Hope is a stamina laden filly however with 3 wins on the bounce including 2 at this trip & the last a comfortable success at Deauville from Doumaron on very soft ground, this better ground will bring others closer but respected none the less. 
Khaldera has progressed from handicaps to win her last 2 starts in pattern company including a strong staying performance to land the German St Leger last time so she is not underestimated here.

Willing to give Doumaran 7/1 generally available another chance at decent odds.  




The mile of The Prix Daniel Wildenstein is up next with 14 going to post so the draw will play its part here, like all races at Longchamp low drawn horses dominate.
Sommerabend was in fantastic form in the early part of the year but that has somewhat tailed off admittedly in Group 1 company so back in this grade he could bounce back but has a tough draw. 
Limario returns to Europe after failing to set Meydan & Singapore alight, this is his first start since May & he has plenty on. 
High Spirit is just a handicapper & will struggle here. 
Zhiyi has always been held in some regard & has only seen the racetrack twice this season, he won comfortably in a handicap last time, his form in Group company at the end of last season was good & he can play a part upped in grade from just an ok draw. Affaire Solitaire is another stepping up from handicap grade, he is on a hat trick as he tries Group company for the first time from a cracking draw. 
Pinturicchio was only just caught in a finish of outsiders in this last year, most of his form is on soft although he has won a Group 3 on good ground this year, tough draw though. Baltic Knight returned to winning ways in a conditions event at Haydock last time, he has previously not been up to this grade though & I cannot see that changing here. 
Solow was a hugely impressive winner of the best trial for this race on very soft ground last time, he is a versatile horse having won at 12 furlongs & a mile although better ground may just find him out at this trip in this grade. 


Emirate's Girl is a Grade 2 winner in Argentina who is making her European debut here, impossible to know what to expect. 
Decathlete was thought to be one of Godolphin France's better horses this year but he has so far failed to fire & was 9th in The Moulin on his latest start.
Matorio has been limited each time he has appeared in this kind of grade & has work to do. 
Kenhope brings some of the best back form into the race & ran a decent race last time in a Group 1 at Leopardstown, has to go well in this from a good draw. 
Veda has been a disappointment for me this year as she looked so good earlier in the season & was only just touched off in The French 1000 Guineas. She has not been seen since disappointing behind the improving Fintry last time at Chantilly in June so has clearly had issues, if she is back to her best she wins from a good draw. 
La Hoguette has an awful draw which is a shame as her form entitles her to get involved in this.          

Tight race in which a few have chances Veda if back to her best will win but if she isn't its wide open with Zhiyi potentially overpriced.              





12 Fillies face the starter in The Royallieu at 2:40; 
Alain De Royer-Dupre & Andre Fabre are the men who have dominated in recent years winning 6 renewals between them in the last 10 years. 
Shared Account sports 1st time blinkers which could easily help her get involved although she has struggled in pattern company up till now. 
Frine was well beaten in this grade last time after running well in her native Spain. 
Berlin Berlin has been 2nd in a Group 1 in her native Germany this season but was well beaten behind Ivanhowe last time, on her best form she could get involved. 
Abys was beaten in a Listed race earlier in the year by Berlin Berlin & will do well to turn that form around. 
Euphrasia is still most famous for beating the classy Princess Highway in a Group 3 at Naas 2 years ago, her form since is poor & she will do well to get involved. 
Valdiyana was beaten in a Listed race by Quiz Mistress last time which gives her plenty to do in this although better ground will help. 
Zarshanna won the Prix Minerve comfortably last time a race that has produced the winner of this twice in the last 10 years, she is the choice of Soumillon & should go close.


Savanne on jockey bookings is clearly not fancied but she has some decent form in the book & will appreciate the better ground. 
Mayhem is progressing nicely from lower grade races in the provinces & won a decent Listed race nicely last time, shouldn't be underestimated although she will need another career best. 
Scighera brings Italian form to the table which so far this season has been limited at best. All At Sea is bred to be a superstar by Sea The Stars out of Triple German Group 1 winner Albanova, she has only had 3 starts & won a Listed event here nicely last time, I know very little about her jockey so would assume she has plenty on her plate in this grade. Completing the trio of Fabre runners in Your Game who has only raced at well below conditions level & has just an ordinary maiden win to her name but on jockey bookings would appear to be the better fancied of the 3.  

Not a race I will be betting in. 




Old Cirrus Des Aigles returns to the track as he attempts a fourth win in The Prix Dollar having won in 2010, 2012 & 2013. He has looked better than ever this season including a dominant display at Epsom in The Coronation Cup on his last start where he kept on through the pain of suffering a slight injury. The best horse in the race by a long way who if he is fit....wins. 
Smoking Sun got a shocking ride in The Arlington Million when sitting too far back off slow fractions, he returned to France with a good 2nd to the improving Fractional in La Coupe last time but in 3 tries against Cirrus he has never got near him. 
Fractional has returned from a year off the track to record 3 wins on the bounce this season including when back up in Group 3 company last time, as a 3yo he was a real improver for Godolphin's French camp & represents the biggest threat to Cirrus although the jockey booking is not who I would have expected. 
Pilote has not gone as you would expect this season & has work to do here. 
Hippy won the big race at Vichy in the provinces 2 starts ago & has some decent overall form to her name but not in this grade.
 Calling Out is just a useful 3yo who has been finishing in & around the places in pattern company, work to do against his elders here. 
Planetaire has been running at a useful level all season including when only a few lengths things behind Fractional last time out, its perhaps disappointing them that retained rider for the owners Olivier Peslier has chosen Pilote.        
  
If anywhere near his best Cirrus Des Aigles wins.

@fttfracing

       

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