Hello once again one & all, welcome along to the latest blog ahead of Night 5 from the #DWCC2015 at Meydan on Thursday night featuring the first of the UAE Classic's & Round 2 of the Al Maktoum Challenge which sees the return of last year's Dubai World Cup winner African Story who attempts dirt for the first time in his career.
So far it has been slim pickings re winners from my bets with plenty of placed efforts but only the 4 winners outright, the dirt surface has been a conundrum for all & has been the subject of much discussion. It is now completely apparent that pace is key as all 3 winners on dirt last week made the running so after looking promising to start with the surface has reverted to your typical North American surface which leads to quite dull one dimensional action which is a great shame for the Carnival as a whole.
Opening up this card is a 6f Turf handicap for horses rated 105 - 100;
The consistent ex Mark Johnston handicapper Almargo is more than capable at this trip & enjoyed a terrific campaign in the UK last season, his mark should be one that he can cope with having been placed of 102 a couple of times last season & Cam Hardie's claim gives him hope so he is not ruled out.
Fountain Of Youth showed little in what was a strangely run 5f race here last week & his mark still looks relatively tough here even though was a Group 3 winner last season, that race stood out like a sore thumb in what overall was a poor campaign hence the reason he was shipped out of Ballydoyle.
Merhee has failed to fire during his time this season & last in the UAE, he usually pulls too hard & has plenty to find here.
Nawwaar was a useful for John Dunlop a few years ago & has competed to a decent level in the UAE mainly at Abu Dhabi, his last 2 runs have been slightly below par but as a result he does find himself on quite a decent looking mark so is not discounted.
Ninjago has long promised plenty but more often than not he finds at least 1 or 2 too good for him however he should be well suited by the fast conditions of the races in the UAE & hs to be respected if he is ready to roll after a long time off the track.
Kernoff was an improver in good handicaps last year & duly won easily at Dundalk back in October, major stumbling block here however is a career high mark of 104 & most of the stables runners have needed the run on there first start back.
Line Of Reason is another from the 5f handicap last week who never got involved, steps back up to his best trip here but does need to improve from his current mark.
Over The Ocean fell out of the stalls on dirt here a few weeks ago yet made reasonable headway in the straight, he will have come on for that run & can get involved if coping as well with the turf as the majority of his best form in Scandinavia is on a dirt surface.
Master Of War switches back to turf after 2 adequate runs on the dirt, young Louis Steward comes in for the ride & his claim will at least make him competitive.
Monsieur Joe like stablemate didn't enjoy much success in the 5f handicap last week & steps up a furlong here to a trip he has never won at, passed over here.
My Catch enjoyed a decent season here last time around in what was a weak 3yo division, his limitations were exposed in higher company towards the end & his 2 runs in Europe were poor. Enters handicaps on what could prove a decent mark & his stable remains in excellent form.
Sholaan reverts to turf for the first time since a down the field finish in last year's Al Quoz on World Cup night all his recent form is on dirt but he is now only a 1lb higher than when 4th in the Ayr Gold Cup back in 2012 when well fancied. Stable has not caught fire at this Carnival as yet which is a concern though.
Dark Emerald ran so well when caught up the rail on his Meydan debut a few weeks back, this however is 2nd choice as he was balloted out of the 1 mile handicap later in the card & he has not run over 6f since finishing 12th to Dawn Approach in the Coventry back in 2012.
Ertijaal (not to be confused with his Cape Derby winning namesake for the same connections) runs for the 3rd week running & reverts back to turf here after finding the dirt tough last week, trip should be fine but the concern is as to how much of the raw ability he showed early last year remains.
Whistle Stop drops markedly in trip for his first start in the UAE, his last run was a hugely disappointing effort when 11th of 12th in the Daily News Grade 1 over 10f behind Legislate last year at Turffontein, his previous efforts had also been down the field but he did manage to win a Grade 3 back in 2013, will surely be caught flat footed here & is best watched.
Ajjaadd is better known as a 5f sprinter but he does have one piece of excellent 6f form when 2nd in the Stewards Cup back in 2013, mark has now dropped to one he has been competitive in the past but this is a tough race.
Not a race I can see any form of bet in.
The first Classic of the UAE season is for the fillies & despite the excellent prize money only George Baker has chosen to take on Godolphin & Mike De Kock.
Mike De Kock fields Ad Idem who ran a superb race when making all on her dirt debut in the trial last time only to get worn down late on by Local Time, step up in trip will suit but once again has to give weight away to her slightly younger rivals.
Shahrasal appears to be in the race to set the pace for Ad Idem, she has a had a UAE start at a local meeting when finishing well beaten.
Godolphin's trio are headed by the game trial winner Local Time who worked incredibly hard to wear down Ad Idem right on the line, she is sure to benefit from the step up here & will prove very hard to beat.
Good Place tries again after fluffing the start badly in the trial she did run on that day but she was entitled on ratings alone to finish ahead of her rivals & for me has plenty to find with her stablemate.
Completing the Godolphin trio is Charlie Appleby's well thought of Yodelling who has won both her starts on the AW at kempton easily, she has beaten nothing both times but the manner of her victory marked her out as potentially smart. Although she has a American dirt sire her dam the classy Echoes In Eternity has produced nothing but Turf runners to date, reportedly she has shown a liking to the similar dirt surface at Marmoom stables as I have said before it is completely different in race conditions.
Completing the lineup is George Baker's Runner Runner who did well to snatch 3rd from a tiring Good Place in the Trial, work to do to get involved here though.
Another non betting event for me.
Race is also for 3yo's this time the colts & geldings over 7f on turf for the Meydan Classic Trial; Forries Waltz is unbeaten in 3 starts back home in South Africa including when winning comfortably in Listed company last time, despite the layoff he could easily be up to this first time out.
His stablemate Mastermind has had a run already at a local meeting a few weeks ago when making an excellent return over 6f (3rd has won easily since) a trip that he was a close 2nd in a Grade 2 in South Africa, should stay 7f & has to be respected given the recent outing.
Burnt Sugar has the highest rating of all the runners & in fact is well clear on 112, overall that looks quite a lofty rating on what he has achieved. He was well beaten on bad ground in what is usually a poor Group 1 at Saint Cloud at the back end of the season & finished a close up 4th in a slowly run rough race on Arc Day, the time before that he beat Maftool (who met trouble in running) on the AW at Kempton. Entitled to respect in what is a poor race overall but whether he is as far clear as the ratings would lead to believe is debatable.
Horatio Bloom has mainly been running on dirt (a surface that has won on twice) since his turf debut last year, he was quite comfortably beaten on his last start & has plenty to prove here.
Initial couldn't land a blow in a strongly run race on dirt for the 2000 Guineas Trial last time, turf should help him here & he should at least make a better 3yo although he will need to improve to get involved.
Intenser showed decent form in low level nurseries in Ireland last year but this much tougher. Pasticcio is a notch below these & showed little on dirt last time.
Quarterback won a Listed race on heavy ground at the end of last season at Taby in Sweden, he had previously been 2nd in a similar event at Ovrevoll in Norway. Entitled to respect after showing useful form after just 3 starts.
Surewecan was a decent 2yo in Nurseries & Novice events, his last run was a 2nd to subsequent Middle Park winner Charming Thought but on the run before he had been easily dismissed by Burnt Sugar.
Toscanelli is a former Ballydoyle inmate now with MDK, his form was no more than useful in Nurseries throughout last season, tried Group 1 company as a pacemaker on his last start & was well beaten. Has a high rating but really does not deserve it.
Volatile was restrained against his own will last time in an attempt to stay the 7f on dirt, as a result he pulled to hard & ran no sort of race. Stamina still has to be proved here which on his run style is a big doubt.
Westhoughton is not up to this on what he has shown so far.
Wild Citizen reared in the stalls in the 2000 Guineas trial affecting both him & Maftool, worth another chance on Turf after winning his debut nicely back home although draw has been unkind.
Wychwood Warrior showed steady improvement in maidens last season before easily winning at Dundalk on his final start, open to plenty of improvement at 3 & is respected from a stable who habitually do well throughout the Carnival.
Zephuros ran as well as could be expected on the dirt last time, he will appreciate the return to turf but does have a tough draw to overcome.
Romosh is an unraced daughter of Yeats who faces an impossible task on her debut here.
Yet another race I would not want to get involved in from a betting point of view.
The first of the Carnival's staying events is up next on turf;
Ahzeemah returns to the Carnival after a year away, up until last season he had been the most consistent of animals but after 3 below par runs in the early part of the year he returned right back to his best when almost making all in the Goodwood Cup Group 2 only to be mown down by stablemate Cavalryman. He was 2nd in this race back in 2013 from a mark of 104 before winning the Nad Al Sheba Trophy & must go very well now back in a handicap given the stables form plus having won with a similar Group class horse in a handicap last week in Hunter's Light & going close with Excellent Result the previous week. My only worry is that he doesn't do things as easily as a horse like Hunter's Light would so he may be vulnerable.
Meandre was placed in a handicap early last year from a similar mark but failed to make an impact thereafter, the step up in trip is an unknown & we just do not if he is as good as he was previously.
Bank Of Burden has struggled over the years at the Carnival & that is unlikely to change here.
Star Empire ran a superb race as he usually does on his comeback a few weeks ago, this step up in trip is much more his cup of tea, he has Won & been 2nd in this race in the last 2 years from marks of 102 & 109, sure to be involved again.
Mickdaam tried dirt with little success last time & has shown little form since his 3yo season in Europe when he won a Chester Vase before finishing 5th in Camelot's Derby.
Rio Tigre was last seen in France when finishing well beaten over a similar trip on Arc weekend, on his previous start he had finished out with the washing on shocking ground at Deauville behind Cocktail Queen. Prior to those runs he had been steadily improving in minor company, type to make a better 3yo & also for the better ground.
Aussie Reigns continues to be rated higher than he is capable of winning from & is a victim of his own consistency although his last run was fairly disappointing.
Elidor looked in need of the run on his UAE debut & ran well for a long way in a relatively slowly run race, he ran one of the best races of his career when tackling this trip last year finishing 4th in the Ebor, still has potential to improve at it & can get involved.
Duke Derby's best Scandinavian form is on dirt at staying distances, there is a lack of opportunities on dirt at staying distances for him so a switch to turf was inevitable. Earth Drummer steps up again in trip after running so well when just failing to catch Al Saham here a few weeks ago, stamina is taken on trust but does shape as though it shouldn't be a problem for a horse who is on the upgrade.
Famous Kid reverts to turf after his lethargic start on dirt last time, he was an improving sort last year & should stay at least this far as a half brother to St Leger winner Mastery useful 2nd string for Saeed Bin Suroor.
Ithoughtitwasover was a decent handicapper for Mark Johnston back in 2012 winning god handicaps at Newmarket & a Listed Handicap at Hamilton. He ran in this race back in 2013 finishing 10th & was seen once afterwards at York in the July. This is his first run since so he can only be watched to see how much ability remains despite a favourable handicap mark.
The furthest Izaaj has gone before is 11f at both Jimma Lake in China & Abu Dhabi when he finished down the field both times, he is much better known as a miler & at the age of 8 is hardly going to improve for the huge step up in trip. Similar comments apply to Layali Al Andalus although he at least is bred to stay this far.
First real race of the night in which a bet looks possible, am a fan of Ahzeemah & back in a handicap makes him interesting. Rio Tigre could easily have more to offer this year & Earth Drummer ran so well last time that he is also worthy of respect but I will stick with Famous Kid to improve for the step up in trip back on turf.
The big race of the Night is Round 2 of The Al Maktoum Challenge over 9.5f on Dirt;
Capital Attraction ran well to a point in the first round but dropped away tamely & the trip has to be a concern here although on the plus side he is a front runner.
The evergreen Prince Bishop returns to the Carnival & attempts dirt for the first time, pedigree offers some hope that it will suit as does his liking for artificial surfaces as his very best form is reserved for the AW, player as he usually races handly.
Cooptado has not been seen since an impressive all the way Listed success before Christmas, form is just ok with the runners in behind all having been beaten since but the manner was impressive & his front running style is a huge asset in what looks likely to be a strongly run race.
Last year's Dubai World Cup winner African Story returns to the scene of his greatest triumph but of course now on a vastly different surface, there is no dirt form in his pedigree but as a horse who has loved the AW there is hope that he might act while his sire Pivotal provides further enhancement of that hope as his son Faulkner who is bred on similar lines has already excelled on the surface, usually races off the pace which is a concern but could get the race coming back to him if they go off too fast.
Surfer won Round 1 in good style & has been a big beneficiary of the dirt surface, the worry here is the trip as so far in his career a mile is a far as he has looked like getting but is respected given the ability he has shown already on the surface.
Haatheq is below the standard required here & blew the start last time, he could maybe run on for a place but apart from that this looks tough.
Emirates Flyer ran really well last time behind Surfer seemingly handling the dirt fine, he travelled well on the wide outside into the race before getting tired entitled to come on for that & this little horse keeps surprising me.
Ennobled Friend was well beaten behind Surfer in Round 1 last time & has plenty on his plate here.
Frankyfourfingers surprised everyone with a bold display on his first dirt start when chasing home Surfer in Round 1, should come on for that although it should be noted that so far 2nd time up this Salem Bin Ghadayer horses have generally been disappointing.
La Bernardin deserves a crack at this grade given his liking for the new dirt surface, he was a Graded performer in his youth in the US & is another who races prominently, not discounted.
Zambucca is an enigma who on form has no hope but he ran on with such vigour last time in Round 1 that he still gives me false up as he steps up in trip throughout the Carnival that he could either run into a place or even win one of these, the dirt surface suits & if he does not get too far back he could run into a place if they go too fast.
Fascinating to see how African Story gets on for the first time on dirt but recently it has become a front runners surface so the contenders are headed by Cooptado & Prince Bishop but a flyer is taken with La Bernardin (NB) who has handled the surface so well recently.
Closing the card is a classy looking 1 mile turf handicap;
Ajeeb is sure to a warm order after a generally perceived good run on his first UAE start back on opening night over 5f where he was badly outpaced early before staying on as you would expect a horse who stays further to, it is also worth taking into account that he was fully entitled to beat the horses he did on his rating alone. He will need to be Group class to win carrying this weight against plenty of useful opponents & while he has competed at Group level in Australia he has yet to win one.
Short Squeeze's last run is best forgotten he pulled to hard over 7f before staying on at the finish, he looks well capable of winning a race in Dubai but will need plenty of luck in running from his wide draw.
Flying The Flag is one of the many ex Ballydoyle animals that end up with Mike De Kock, his form in minor pattern company last year was less than inspiring & he has plenty to in a handicap for the first time.
Nolohay was well fancied early in the year for last seasons French Derby when with Carlos Laffron-Parias but eventually finished 15th of 16, his best form is at 10f & on his last French start he was beaten a short neck in Listed company over 1m4f, this mile trip will be to short for him so he is best watched.
Professor should make a Carnival type & his mark is not insurmountable, the real issue is the trip of 1 mile as all his wins have been at 6f or 7f, the twice he has run at a mile he was well beaten both times.
Mufarrh has been a decent horse in the past but looks a light of former days now & all his best recent form was on Tapeta.
Music Theory had a torrid passage in the race that Safety Check won easily back on opening night, he was well fancied that night, I have one slight question mark here & once again it is the trip as so far albeit in only a handful of starts his best form is at 7f. The one time he has tried the mile he was well brushed aside, the other worry is he wasn't running through the line as if he had more to give last time or the time before that at Lingfield & both those races were over 7f.
Our Channel was keen on the lead a few weeks back & failed to get home, that race will have brought him on which gives him solid place claims at least here.
Samurai Sword continues to acquit himself admirably in the face of difficult tasks he may well need slightly further & another drop in the weights to get seriously competitive though.
Slumdogmillionaire ran an odd race on his return from a long layoff here a few weeks back, he was keen enough early before dropping away then he consented to run on again at the finish, off this mark as a former dual Grade 1 winner he could be extremely well handicapped if any of the former sparkle remains.
Wee Jean didn't get involved in a weak fillies Group 2 last week & she faces a thankless task against the boys here.
Royal Ridge made up some late headway on his last start but not enough to suggest a win was in the offing next time.
However for me Avon Pearl did suggest a decent run was in the offing in the same race deliberately switched up the inside form a bad draw he made eye catching progress late on, last year he was 4th in this race before bolting up on Tapeta next time both those runs came from a mark of 100, he is off 102 here so it is not an unreasonable suggestion to think he can cope with it. The stumbling block is the draw 16/16 but if his rider Sam Hitchcott applies the same tactics of switching to the inside he has already shown once he is more than capable of travelling in behind horse & Meydan before bursting through a gap.
Captain Lars showed very little on his first Carnival start which was disappointing for a horse who had looked on the improve in South Africa, he could well have been in dire need of the run so is worthy of note under Frankie here.
Magic City is an out & out 7f specialist who will have this race run to suit as a hold up horse who enjoys flying at his opponents in the home straight, he has yet to win at 1 mile but has plenty of placed form at the distance. Can get involved although I personally believe he won't quite get home well enough to win.
Van Rooney ran well twice at the Carnival on Tapeta last year finishing placed in races over 1 mile & 7f. He starts this campaign on the same mark so has place chances as hold up performer.
Am very keen on Avon Pearl (NAP) in this given plenty of luck in running.
@fttfracing
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